Preview 2022 Round 9 Carlton vs GWS - Sunday May 15 3:20PM @ Giants Stadium - Team Post #1034

[CJMB]

Four or five unforced changes after a 10 goal win? No chance IMO. Maybe one.

To be fair, that’s probably 3 unforced changes (Martin injured and an extra has to be dropped as we used 23 players) and it was only an 8 goal win…

But I get what you’re saying. Could see 2-3 changes plus the omission for the 23rd/sub.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Ah you've reminded me of the days when GWS would beat us by 100 points and absolutely murder us with their run.

And that match where they had no one on the bench and still outran us...

We can keep up with them physically now and can't wait to beat up on them.

Just the thought of playing against Kelly and Whitfield still sends shivers up my spine after those matches...

 

[Benaly28]

Greene destroyed us in the past. I don't think Saad is strong enough in the contest, Plowman too slow in reflex and in his first 5. Tough matchup for us.

We haven't won interstate all year!

6-2, team defence, out of the middle, have to rely on opportunities out and limiting in.

if Stocker is fit I'd play him every week.

I’d say they have to worry about our weapons,Greene is their only.


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[Jimmyonesix]

Will De Boer get the job on Cripps this weekend?

I think in the form he's in at the moment Cripps is nigh on untaggable, given his size and that he's going forward and taking marks, but if anyone can give it a good crack I think De Boer is one.

Jack Steele probably the only guy who could have any chance -

 

[Mondyboy]

Just the thought of playing against Kelly and Whitfield still sends shivers up my spine after those matches...

Last night, for sadomasochistic reasons, I rewatched the highlights of that game where they had only 16 on the ground. We were so bad that Aidan Bonar looked like a 200 gamer on debut.

Somehow, though last years game was worse with Toby kicking that goal at half time. Beginning of the end for Teague.


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[Benaly28]

Will De Boer get the job on Cripps this weekend?

I think in the form he's in at the moment Cripps is nigh on untaggable, given his size and that he's going forward and taking marks, but if anyone can give it a good crack I think De Boer is one.

That’s fine let’s see if they tag Kennedy,Walsh,Cerra and possibly Hewett.


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[Benaly28]

Matches Cripps has had 30+ and a goal this year: 6

Matches Cripps has played past 1/4 time: 6

I think he has 4 best ons and 2 2 vote games.

16.


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[Benaly28]

This will be a tough one.

Don't look at where they are on the ladder. They've lost games to Sydney, Geelong, Tigers, Freo, St Kilda and Melbourne. They beat Gold Coast and the Crows by about the same amount we did.

Still think we should be too good for them and get over the line by about 20 points. But we need to turn up this time. Both interstate games we've been sub par and copped early injuries to significant players too... can't do much about the injuries but we can about the intensity. Let's get to 7-2!

They don’t have Charlie and Harry.


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[cookie monster]

Okay.

If we are to be a serious option for top 4 this season, than this is a game we should be winning. Not belting them, not crawling over the line, but winning. They are a side between 13 and 5. If we're fair dinkum, we'll beat them.

Our record up there is absolutely putrid. We've not beaten them up there, ever; all our victories against the Giants have come at Marvel. We have an all time % up there of 53.26. Let that sink in; not only have we lost 5 out of 5 games up there, but the average losing margin is about 43 points. So, on one hand, in order to win up there, we'll be defying history; recent history, certainly, but history. They have had the wood over us, and have lorded in it.

So, in a lot of ways, this match is arguably a bigger test than Fremantle was. In that game, we went in with no Kennedy or Gov, lost Pittonett inside the first term, and Harry wasn't himself at all due to getting a knock, and Freo were with the exception of Fyfe and a few back flankers as close to their best 22 as they could get. In this game, our form is better going in with our 22 looking more organised and balanced around the ball and in transition, and the defense/team defense is functioning much better. Our 22 is looking a little more settled, and our cohesion better. We had every reason to expect Fremantle to be a bridge too far - I know I picked us to win it, out of hope and an expectation that we wouldn't get so beaten round the ball as we were once Pittonett went down - but GWS aren't in as stellar form as Freo were.

Having said that, they're a team that can frontrun, so it's important to hit them and hit them hard early. Put them on their arse, and trigger that self-preservation mode that GWS enter sometimes, when their players don't want it for whole quarters at a time. Their closest margin is 17 (in a loss, to St Kilda at Manuka); the other margins in their games are 3 goals (in round 1), 6 goals (round 2), 4 goals (round 3), 34 points (round 4) and the drubbings from rounds 5-7. They beat up Adelaide away, before losing badly to Geelong and Melbourne. The instructive thing is, after losing against Melbourne (by 67 points) they conjured up the smallest margin of the season against St Kilda at home the following week, kicking 1.5 after half time. Put pressure on them and they'll go with you for a half; fail to put pressure on them and they can 'click' into globetrotters mode and put you away in a quarter with relentlessly clean play.

People will look at matchups, but I maintain that against GWS your hope is not in tagging specific players because doing so releases other players. If Greene is alone pulling against the tide, ******* great; it means you're smashing them all over the field. It's an exercise in beating them sufficiently when and where it matters - in the coalface - and preventing continuous possession via HTB frees enough early to keep them from gaining confidence to start taking the game on. Hit them and hit them until they're playing hot potato - the way we did against Adelaide - and we're as good a chance as we've been to beat them.

I genuinely do not know how this one will go. On one hand, we could win and win big, brushing them away as we did Adelaide and Nth; they're not that good, and they have the capacity to crumble when subjected to both scoreboard and physical pressure. On the other, they are capable of flawless footy and have no fear of us up there.

But my heart doesn't want this one to be a good game. I want us to grind them into their home patch. I want them to feel what we felt in 2018, when they belted us by 105 points with 17 on the field. I want, as I have not wanted in a long time, for us to grind their artificial club into their synthetic little oval with its confected atmosphere.

Carlton by ten goals.

Well said
Couldn't agree with you any more
I want to ****ing smash these campaigners

 

[Jimmyonesix]

Okay.

If we are to be a serious option for top 4 this season, than this is a game we should be winning. Not belting them, not crawling over the line, but winning. They are a side between 13 and 5. If we're fair dinkum, we'll beat them.

Our record up there is absolutely putrid. We've not beaten them up there, ever; all our victories against the Giants have come at Marvel. We have an all time % up there of 53.26. Let that sink in; not only have we lost 5 out of 5 games up there, but the average losing margin is about 43 points. So, on one hand, in order to win up there, we'll be defying history; recent history, certainly, but history. They have had the wood over us, and have lorded in it.

So, in a lot of ways, this match is arguably a bigger test than Fremantle was. In that game, we went in with no Kennedy or Gov, lost Pittonett inside the first term, and Harry wasn't himself at all due to getting a knock, and Freo were with the exception of Fyfe and a few back flankers as close to their best 22 as they could get. In this game, our form is better going in with our 22 looking more organised and balanced around the ball and in transition, and the defense/team defense is functioning much better. Our 22 is looking a little more settled, and our cohesion better. We had every reason to expect Fremantle to be a bridge too far - I know I picked us to win it, out of hope and an expectation that we wouldn't get so beaten round the ball as we were once Pittonett went down - but GWS aren't in as stellar form as Freo were.

Having said that, they're a team that can frontrun, so it's important to hit them and hit them hard early. Put them on their arse, and trigger that self-preservation mode that GWS enter sometimes, when their players don't want it for whole quarters at a time. Their closest margin is 17 (in a loss, to St Kilda at Manuka); the other margins in their games are 3 goals (in round 1), 6 goals (round 2), 4 goals (round 3), 34 points (round 4) and the drubbings from rounds 5-7. They beat up Adelaide away, before losing badly to Geelong and Melbourne. The instructive thing is, after losing against Melbourne (by 67 points) they conjured up the smallest margin of the season against St Kilda at home the following week, kicking 1.5 after half time. Put pressure on them and they'll go with you for a half; fail to put pressure on them and they can 'click' into globetrotters mode and put you away in a quarter with relentlessly clean play.

People will look at matchups, but I maintain that against GWS your hope is not in tagging specific players because doing so releases other players. If Greene is alone pulling against the tide, ******* great; it means you're smashing them all over the field. It's an exercise in beating them sufficiently when and where it matters - in the coalface - and preventing continuous possession via HTB frees enough early to keep them from gaining confidence to start taking the game on. Hit them and hit them until they're playing hot potato - the way we did against Adelaide - and we're as good a chance as we've been to beat them.

I genuinely do not know how this one will go. On one hand, we could win and win big, brushing them away as we did Adelaide and Nth; they're not that good, and they have the capacity to crumble when subjected to both scoreboard and physical pressure. On the other, they are capable of flawless footy and have no fear of us up there.

But my heart doesn't want this one to be a good game. I want us to grind them into their home patch. I want them to feel what we felt in 2018, when they belted us by 105 points with 17 on the field. I want, as I have not wanted in a long time, for us to grind their artificial club into their synthetic little oval with its confected atmosphere.

Carlton by ten goals.

So long - to say -- let's win ..

 

[Own The Future]

They don’t have Charlie and Harry.


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No - but they do have Haynes and Taylor, probably 2 of the top 10 tall defenders in the league. Not saying that will be the difference, as if we get it in there often enough we should be fine. But those 2 are going to be a tough test for H & CC, certainly an upgrade on Walker/Bonar and Butts/Frampton.

 

[gbatman]

Hard to change a side that played so well.

Martin likely to be out, Motlop is the likely replacement. Like for like.

We need a third tall defender back there but who comes in? Marchbank not ready. Plowman is makeshift but his last game was good, I think he comes in. Kemp probably didn't quite play well enough in the VFL. Boyd or Newman likely to be shifted but both were ok.

Does Hewett come back in? There's no need to rush him.

GWS are a poor side, have seen them play ok but their brand is poor, and their quality is diluted.

Our defence has improved which is where we beat them, our offence will finish off the good work of our defence.

 

[LanceRomance]

This will be a tough one.

Don't look at where they are on the ladder. They've lost games to Sydney, Geelong, Tigers, Freo, St Kilda and Melbourne. They beat Gold Coast and the Crows by about the same amount we did.

Still think we should be too good for them and get over the line by about 20 points. But we need to turn up this time. Both interstate games we've been sub par and copped early injuries to significant players too... can't do much about the injuries but we can about the intensity. Let's get to 7-2!

So what you are saying is.....Make no mistake, GWS is a very very good football side?

 

[Jimmyonesix]

Last night, for sadomasochistic reasons, I rewatched the highlights of that game where they had only 16 on the ground. We were so bad that Aidan Bonar looked like a 200 gamer on debut.

Somehow, though last years game was worse with Toby kicking that goal at half time. Beginning of the end for Teague.


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Yes and they were all laying on the grass watching like they were at the beach --

 

[Blue_Fusion]

So what you are saying is.....Make no mistake, GWS is a very very good football side?

How did you extrapolate that?

Just saying they're lower on the ladder than they could be if they had a better draw and it's going to be a tough one to win.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

They don’t have Charlie and Harry.


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Of course they don't...

Which KPFs did Gold Coast have? Levi and Chol...

 

[thylacine60]

Marchbank sits on 48 AFL games, in his 8th season. Obviously zero games for the past two years. Extraordinary stuff. Would love to see him hit the 50 this year.

rhino territory - and I don't mean the serengeti......

 

[rp84]

Jack Steele probably the only guy who could have any chance -

The thing is, now Cripps is a reliable set shot, if he gets a hard tag from those guys he goes to the square 1 on 1. They switch a kpp, they have to move someone off McKay or curnow which is incredibly dangerous. And when they do, cripps can just take them straight to the stoppage and destroy them.

It's so nice being able to dictate the game. Cripps goal kicking is one reason but the other is the extreme depth and quality of the midfield allows him to go.

If marchbank comes back and we get some small forward output we're the 3rd best team on the comp and can beat anyone on our day.

 

[rp84]

Of course they don't...

Which KPFs did Gold Coast have? Levi and Chol...

Turns out Levi is actually a gun and was wasted here...

He's a genius at gold coast

 

[Benaly28]

Of course they don't...

Which KPFs did Gold Coast have? Levi and Chol...

Id say circumstances played a big part that day.


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[LanceRomance]

How did you extrapolate that?

Just saying they're lower on the ladder than they could be if they had a better draw and it's going to be a tough one to win.

So they are a very very good football side?

 

[Blue Warrior]

GWS are a pack of


Don't get me wrong they have some bloody great "individual" players but as a team their manufactured club culture has a soft underbelly of folding when put under immense pressure.

To beat this mob we just have to shutdown a few individuals in Greene,Kelly,Green,Whitfield,Taranto and the rest will fold like a deck of cards.

Cripps will smash through the predictable tag of De boer then they'll try Green on him and Crippa will give him a lesson in how to play as the premium big bodied midfielder in the competition.

Walsh,Kennedy,Cerra and hopefully Hewett will all need to keep their momentum of good footy up around the stoppages and if Stocker is ready he is

the perfect player to stop Greene as he has the smarts to match his cunningness, enough campaigner in him to give Greene a whack if Greene dishes out

his usual cheap shots and is strong/fast enough to match and beat him one on one.

I wouldn't be surprised if we play Boyd as a forward tagger on Whitfield or even bring in Fogarty to play that role and shut him down.

If we go up there and play hard, aggressive football and TDK doesn't get too smashed by Preuss in the ruck and we shut down their

great individual players we win by at least 5 goals.

GO BLUES!

 

[blue healer]

Ah you've reminded me of the days when GWS would beat us by 100 points and absolutely murder us with their run.

And that match where they had no one on the bench and still outran us...

We can keep up with them physically now and can't wait to beat up on them.

Can honestly say I remember nothing of the last quarter of that game. I was on the train home.

 

[Bluella]

I'm lentil as anything....

You are a funny bugger sometimes.

 

[Gethelred]

So long - to say -- let's win ..

tl;dr