No Oppo Supporters General AFL and other clubs discussion thread. **Opposition fans not welcome** Part 7

[Brishawk]

In case anyone is interested, these two charts show the number of players at each pick/pick range that went on to make the AA team at least once.


And looking at top 10 picks only:

Pick 6 has, for reasons that aren't entirely clear, been a very poor performer by this measure. Lucky Ashcroft will push us out to pick 7!

 

[Flukey!]

Hey Bris,
If we put AA etc aside and just look at good solid, starting 18 players, what is the average games played by draft range?
Say 1-10, 11-20, 21-30 etc?

I feel like the average games played for a player drafted in the top 10 is like 150 and then it drops off.
Would that be right?

Longevity is a performance measure.
So few play 300 games, you have to be very good to play so long.
Playing 250 is also recognised as a very good career.

I guess I am wondering if there are any indicators of longevity recruiters consider.

 

[Brishawk]

Hey Bris,
If we put AA etc aside and just look at good solid, starting 18 players, what is the average games played by draft range?
Say 1-10, 11-20, 21-30 etc?

I feel like the average games played for a player drafted in the top 10 is like 150 and then it drops off.
Would that be right?

Longevity is a performance measure.
So few play 300 games, you have to be very good to play so long.
Playing 250 is also recognised as a very good career.

I guess I am wondering if there are any indicators of longevity recruiters consider.

Check out draft guru for that one as they have already done it. But basically, players that typically get picked earlier in the draft are typically ready to play earlier. Also, top 5-10 picks land at worse clubs in need of new talent, as opposed to landing at a successful club and find it tough to get a game. All else being equal, they are going to play more games, earlier than players chosen later on the draft. It’s hard to seperate out those factors from talent.
But broadly speaking, the odds of landing a 100 gamer decrease in line with the other curves for AA etc. the draft is remarkably inefficient at producing players that make 100, 150 and 200 game milestones.

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

In case anyone is interested, these two charts show the number of players at each pick/pick range that went on to make the AA team at least once.

View attachment 1499593
And looking at top 10 picks only:
View attachment 1499594
Pick 6 has, for reasons that aren't entirely clear, been a very poor performer by this measure. Lucky Ashcroft will push us out to pick 7!

Exceptional work.

Pick #6 for us has, traditionally, not been good at all.

We've taken 3 KPPs with that pick and 2 were complete busts. DGB is the other.

Not sure if the bad luck with #6 occurs to the club who held pick #6 when the draft starts or if it only relates to the actual player taken with #6.

 

[KermitJagger]

Exceptional work.

Pick #6 for us has, traditionally, not been good at all.

We've taken 3 KPPs with that pick and 2 were complete busts. DGB is the other.

Not sure if the bad luck with #6 occurs to the club who held pick #6 when the draft starts or if it only relates to the actual player taken with #6.

It's not just us, Pick 6 is an inexplicably extreme outlier. Pick 6 averages close to half the games as pick 5 or 7.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

It's not just us, Pick 6 is an inexplicably extreme outlier. Pick 6 averages close to half the games as pick 5 or 7.

Mitch Thorp didn't do the average games played for pick 6 any favours

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Mitch Thorp didn't do the average games played for pick 6 any favours

Neither did Dowler

 

[Pinoy Hawk]

Bucking the trend: The most recent players taken at pick No.6 ​

2000: Dylan Smith

Dylan Smith

Age

42

Ht

175cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

1.2

2star

T

2.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

5.2

2star

K

2.6

1star

HB

2.6

3star

M

0.8

1star

T

1.6

4star

(North Melbourne) – 21 games
2001: Ashley Sampi (West Coast) – 78 games
2002: Steven Salopek

Steven Salopek

Age

39

Ht

185cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.4

5star

K

11.3

4star

HB

7.1

4star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.6

4star

CL

1.1

3star

No current season stats available

D

8.0

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

1.0

3star

(Port Adelaide) – 121 games
2003: Kepler Bradley (Essendon) – 117 games
2004: Tom Williams

Tom Williams

Age

38

Ht

198cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.9

3star

K

6.3

2star

HB

4.6

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.3

3star

G

0.2

2star

No current season stats available

D

9.4

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.0

1star

(Western Bulldogs) – 85 games
2005: Beau Dowler

Beau Dowler

Age

36

Ht

196cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

5.5

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.4

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.6

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

4star

(Hawthorn) – 16 games
2006: Mitch Thorp (Hawthorn) – 2 games
2007: David Myers

David Myers

Age

35

Ht

191cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.0

4star

K

10.1

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

3.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

14.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.2

5star

(Essendon) – 116 games
2008: Chris Yarran (Carlton) – 119 games
2009: Gary Rohan

23

Gary Rohan

Age

33

Ht

189cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.6

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

4star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.8

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

4.2

5star

G

1.2

4star

(Sydney) – 106 games
2010: Reece Conca

6

Reece Conca

Age

32

Ht

181cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

10.8

4star

HB

7.4

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

3.6

5star

MG

228.0

3star

D

13.8

3star

K

11.2

4star

HB

2.7

2star

M

3.7

4star

T

2.5

3star

MG

228.0

3star

D

15.8

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

7.8

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

(Richmond) – 104 games
2011: Chad Wingard

20

Chad Wingard

Age

31

Ht

183cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

7.3

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

1.5

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.2

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

5.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.2

3star

(Port Adelaide) – 147 games
2012: Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs) – 118 games
2013: Matthew Scharenberg

12

Matthew Scharenberg

Age

29

Ht

191cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.0

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

8.1

5star

M

5.9

5star

T

1.4

3star

MG

215.0

3star

D

13.3

3star

K

8.3

3star

HB

5.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.7

4star

MG

157.0

3star

D

15.2

4star

K

8.6

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.2

3star

MG

226.8

4star

(Collingwood) – 31 games
2014: Caleb Marchbank (GWS) – 35 games
2015: Aaron Francis (Essendon) – 10 games
2016: Sam Petrevski-Seton

10

Sam Petrevski-seton

Age

26

Ht

182cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

4.2

5star

G

0.3

3star

D

14.4

3star

K

9.5

4star

HB

4.9

3star

M

3.1

3star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.0

1star

D

13.4

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

3.4

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

5.0

5star

G

0.4

3star

(Carlton) – 42 games
2017: Jaidyn Stephenson

2

Jaidyn Stephenson

Age

25

Ht

189cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

8.8

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

4.7

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.5

5star

D

11.0

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

4.3

3star

M

3.5

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

1.2

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.4

5star

(Collingwood) – 26 games

2018 - Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

24

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

2019 - Fischer Mcasey

3

Fischer Mcasey

Age

23

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.8

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

3.5

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.3

3star

MG

102.3

2star

D

6.8

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

3.5

2star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.3

2star

MG

102.3

2star

D

7.2

2star

K

3.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

MG

114.8

2star

2020 - Denver Grainger-Barras
2021 - Josh Rachele

Not the best results but it's kinda a bit of a mix bag which is skewed by Dowler and Thorpe - Note the source of the players taken until 2017 are from an article posted on Nov 22, 2018. --- Six and out: The history of footy's 'cursed' draft pick

 

[Turtles all the way down]

Not sure if the bad luck with #6 occurs to the club who held pick #6 when the draft starts or if it only relates to the actual player taken with #6.

It's the actual player, combined with star sign and boot-aura colour alignment.

 

[KermitJagger]

Bucking the trend: The most recent players taken at pick No.6 ​

2000: Dylan Smith (North Melbourne) – 21 games
2001: Ashley Sampi (West Coast) – 78 games
2002: Steven Salopek (Port Adelaide) – 121 games
2003: Kepler Bradley (Essendon) – 117 games
2004: Tom Williams (Western Bulldogs) – 85 games
2005: Beau Dowler (Hawthorn) – 16 games
2006: Mitch Thorp (Hawthorn) – 2 games
2007: David Myers (Essendon) – 116 games
2008: Chris Yarran (Carlton) – 119 games
2009: Gary Rohan (Sydney) – 106 games
2010: Reece Conca (Richmond) – 104 games
2011: Chad Wingard (Port Adelaide) – 147 games
2012: Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs) – 118 games
2013: Matthew Scharenberg (Collingwood) – 31 games
2014: Caleb Marchbank (GWS) – 35 games
2015: Aaron Francis (Essendon) – 10 games
2016: Sam Petrevski-Seton (Carlton) – 42 games
2017: Jaidyn Stephenson (Collingwood) – 26 games

2018 - Ben King
2019 - Fischer Mcasey
2020 - Denver Grainger-Barras
2021 - Josh Rachele

Not the best results but it's kinda a bit of a mix bag which is skewed by Dowler and Thorpe - Note the source of the players taken until 2017 are from an article posted on Nov 22, 2018. --- Six and out: The history of footy's 'cursed' draft pick

McAsey certainly isn't going to break the trend.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Question - is it possible umpires are fed directions into their earpieces?
Noticed at the aflw yesterday, there was a play where it was clearly a ball up, yet the umpire waited a good minute to blow the whistle, and was holding her hand up to her ear the entire time

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Question - is it possible umpires are fed directions into their earpieces?
Noticed at the aflw yesterday, there was a play where it was clearly a ball up, yet the umpire waited a good minute to blow the whistle, and was holding her hand up to her ear the entire time

Might be trialling boundary umpires feeding them info. Has happened in the NRL for a while. I remember once Bill Harrigan trying to talk to a player and the touchy kept rabbiting on at him and he just yelled into it 'STOP TALKING!'.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

Mitch Thorp didn't do the average games played for pick 6 any favours

And we won't talk about who was selected at #7

 

[BurnaHawks]

And we won't talk about who was selected at #7

Lets not talk about that!

 

[MatteeG]

Question - is it possible umpires are fed directions into their earpieces?
Noticed at the aflw yesterday, there was a play where it was clearly a ball up, yet the umpire waited a good minute to blow the whistle, and was holding her hand up to her ear the entire time

Been happening a while IMO. The amount of late calls aren't an accident.

 

[Brishawk]

And we won't talk about who was selected at #7

The player picked at 7 ducked under pick 6

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Been happening a while IMO. The amount of late calls aren't an accident.

I guess it's the first time I've noticed it

 

[Braidz]

Wayne Carey’s lawyers explore disability discrimination claim over white powder incident

AFL great Carey’s lawyers explore disability discrimination claim over white powder incident

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Off The Couch]

Refreshing listening to Rioli as to why he went across to SA to listen to what Port can offer

Ad-lib

“It’s an industry, I’m no different to anyone else, if someone else can offer me more money then I need to look at it, not just for me, but my family for the future. Me leaving would have nothing to do with not liking the club”

 

[lethalselbow]

Wayne Carey’s lawyers explore disability discrimination claim over white powder incident

AFL great Carey’s lawyers explore disability discrimination claim over white powder incident

www.foxsports.com.au

All good, he claimed it was an anti-inflammatory that he took with dinner. Move along. Nothing to see.

 

[Off The Couch]

Was anyone surprised to hear ch7 commentary say “you’re good friends with DeGoey…..” to Wayne Carey

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Wayne Carey’s lawyers explore disability discrimination claim over white powder incident

AFL great Carey’s lawyers explore disability discrimination claim over white powder incident

www.foxsports.com.au

‘Not illegal’ like how when he glasses a woman it was a ‘magic trick’.

 

[Braidz]

‘Not illegal’ like how when he glasses a woman it was a ‘magic trick’.

Because crushing up anti inflammatories is completely normal thing to do

 

[Roger Rogerson]

Tom Mitchell leaving will be on our terms. He’s contracted & we’re happy for him to continue another year unless a suitable trade eventuates.
50/50 at the moment - let’s see what the finals spits out
Breust is staying.
Wingard wants to stay.
Gunston - reckon he’s leaning towards staying
Bruhn is close to nominating us
2 more delistings pending

Got to be Hartigan.

A 2nd gets very interesting...

 

[PenAndPaper]

I honestly can't believe that this gets him sacked but glassing women and assaulting police officers was an invitation to work at 7. Priorities are skewed horribly.