Part of me is low-key hoping that this year will be the year we're hit with injuries, if it's gonna happen at all.
At the local level, my club made it to the GF last season and got thrashed (very similar to Swans GF) in our worst performance of the season. This pre-season has seen our worst player turnout in years and we have lost a number of our best players. One ex-AFL player retired straight away and our other ex-AFL player was poached. A number of players have also gone to rival clubs for more money (as happens most years anyway) which means we are going to struggle this year.
I am a naturally positive person. I see the positives in the negatives. Russia's invasions of Ukraine may result in the defeat of the Russian army, the dismissal of Putin and intimately the dissolution of many of the Russian areas. More division of Russia into smaller parts and so less threats to the world over time. Smaller country smaller threat over time. A positive.
I certainly think we can buck the trend of completely falling apart after a GF thrashing. I'm still backing us in to make the eight and maybe even top four, because Horse has shown he can do this with a team before (2015, when we made top 4 after the 2014 thrashing.) I also think we're not quite the same as recent grand final victims like GWS and the Bulldogs, who snuck into their grand finals from outside the top four, suggesting the quality of performance over the season wasn't there in the first place; we finished equal 2nd and spent basically the last two months of the season looking like arguably the best team in it. So the ability was there, and should still be there.
Francis and Corey got minutes last week. Definitely interesting to see Rankin get time. Might run Edwards in defence this game.
Top call.
But our best mid out too, Mills. Paps too.
If you look at most of the teams that were flogged in the GF they were not in an upward trend they actually trended downward not only the season after but for several seasons while they rebuilt the list. Lions, Pies, Adelaide, GWS, Port & Dees all had rebuilds or the trauma of losing experienced players that set them back. The ones who made finals next season were still in the zone or just zoning off. Bullies are still in contention and Swans played in a GF in 2016 after being knocked out of the Semis in 2015.
After 2014, we made top 4 in 2015. If Horse hadn't smashed a mirror over a black cat while standing under a ladder, and the resulting injury horrorshow, I think we'd have beaten Freo in Week 1 and gotten a home prelim at least (against the Hawks though).
Most of the clubs that fell away after a GF thrashing were on their last chance or lost players the next few seasons that affected a rebuild. See GWS, Port, Lions, Crows, Saints & Dees (not these Dees). GWs bled good players for salary cap reasons. It astounds me that many clubs suffer under Salary Cap constraints but I keep hearing Cats players take a lower wage to win a premiership. That's absolute bullshit. What they do is get a supporter to buy Hawkins' wife a business. you bet Danger, Cameron, Smith etc are on similar deal with other supporters. This is not illegal but it is devious. They have the capacity to do this but many clubs like Swans, GWS, Lions, Suns, Saints, North, Bullies etc probably don't.I certainly think we can buck the trend of completely falling apart after a GF thrashing. I'm still backing us in to make the eight and maybe even top four, because Horse has shown he can do this with a team before (2015, when we made top 4 after the 2014 thrashing.) I also think we're not quite the same as recent grand final victims like GWS and the Bulldogs, who snuck into their grand finals from outside the top four, suggesting the quality of performance over the season wasn't there in the first place; we finished equal 2nd and spent basically the last two months of the season looking like arguably the best team in it. So the ability was there, and should still be there.
But yeah there's obviously some very real merit to the so-called 'curse' or teams simply wouldn't have been so derailed in the aftermath of their GF beltings. All the reasons you mentioned would apply to us, and it's a variable that only we will be dealing with while 17 other clubs won't have to.
I know it's considered blasphemous to suggest our team won't win the flag this year, but they're hard to win. As a club we've enjoyed five seasons in which we've won the flag and 143 seasons in which we haven't. So it shouldn't be as taboo as it is to say 'I don't think this will be our season.'
Nevertheless, really looking forward to it. I've had my eye on a 2024 flag for a few years now, so hopefully when that flag comes, it'll be a back-to-back!
Port were a fairly young side in 07, had lost a lot of '04 winners. Crows and GWS weren't at the end of their window either, really should have been at the start. The Crows imploded, throwing that surprise camp, and GWS probably didn't have much of a club culture anyway.
I already said that. In 2015 we played too many injured players in that final anyway. Yes, we had a bad injury toll but chose to play injured players over fit ones. If we had not kicked so badly in the QF we might have been good. But having to front up the next week with a big injury toll took it's toll. Buddy has mental health issues did not play either.
I think Port still had players coming to the end. GWS were at the end because they kept bleeding players due to the salary cap. They kept getting younger. That is a rebuild they did not want as players fled back to Victoria. They have become the development team of the AFL.
