Preview 2023 National Draft Preview Thread [currently: #2, #14 (PA), #19 (PP) #40, #52, #60]

[Flawed Genius]

4 years left on a million a year?
Can we do what Geelong did and extend out the contract without paying extra, it would hurt less if you added a year or two.

I would rip off their hands to take that deal. Rip. Them. Off. Whitfield is arguably perfect for our list, mature and in his prime, and we get to pick again at 6.

Imagine a priority pick for McKay, our own first, Ports first and GWS first.

Over two years you go

Out: 2022 #1, JHF, 2022 Priority picks, cash, B.McKay, all 2023 picks
In: H.Sheezel, G.Wardlaw, C.Harvey, L.Whitfield, G.Logue, D.Tucker, N.Watson, A.Reid, M.Edwards, N.Philactides

 

[Lomas]

4 years left on a million a year?
Can we do what Geelong did and extend out the contract without paying extra, it would hurt less if you added a year or two.

You’d think we would have plenty of cap space to just front end it more.

 

[giantroo]

 

[DesertRoo]

I would rip off their hands to take that deal. Rip. Them. Off. Whitfield is arguably perfect for our list, mature and in his prime, and we get to pick again at 6.

Imagine a priority pick for McKay, our own first, Ports first and GWS first.

Over two years you go

Out: 2022 #1, JHF, 2022 Priority picks, cash, B.McKay, all 2023 picks
In: H.Sheezel, G.Wardlaw, C.Harvey, L.Whitfield, G.Logue, D.Tucker, N.Watson, A.Reid, M.Edwards, N.Philactides

He’s playing well too;
There’s another player up there, who’s on a more ridiculous contract, who if I was Clarko I’d be keeping tabs on after covid.

 

[shinboner magic]

Don’t **** it up nmfc

 

[Harris 10]

If WCE come last, and Melbourne are willing to pay three first rounders for him, I think they'll get him.

Also I think Melbourne are in the box seat to get Reid as long as WCE finish last. I can’t see the kangas giving up multiple picks for one player. It would hurt your future growth too much. For what it’s worth I think the kangas with a strong draft haul this year could win a flag in 5 years.

Would you really do that deal with Melbourne?

Freo 1st might be 6 to 8
Melbourne 1st and future first 16 to 18

Add in academy and possible FS picks you could be looking at pick 7 to 9 and 18 to 20 this year and pick 18 to 20 next year.

No way I’m doing that.

 

[koshari]

You’d think we would have plenty of cap space to just front end it more.

Looking at our list if we had an ounce of pressure on our cap space we may as well close the show down now.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Would you really do that deal with Melbourne?

Freo 1st might be 6 to 8
Melbourne 1st and future first 16 to 18

Add in academy and possible FS picks you could be looking at pick 7 to 9 and 18 to 20 this year and pick 18 to 20 next year.

No way I’m doing that.

Ok, bear with me here.

Let's go with the averages and say Melbourne has 7, 17, and a probable F16.

And you're West Coast and you know Harley Reid doesn't want to leave his family in Victoria.

I guess the first question becomes: what's the best deal you can get for 1.

GWS have the draft capital - picks 4 and 6 - but Harley doesn't want to come to Sydney.

The Bulldogs have three first round picks in the next two years - but neither of them this year (theirs and the Lions') will be top 10.

(Doubtful next years will be either.)

Then there's us.

In terms of real draft ammunition, we are projecting to have

• pick 2 or 3,
• around pick ~14 (Port's),
• POSSIBLY an end-of-round-1 from McKay going,
• POSSIBLY an end-of-round-1 PP that we won't be allowed to trade for anything but a player (going by last year's rules), and
• our F1.

If we could do our F1, and pick ~14, an end of round compo pick for McKay, I suppose we could back ourselves in to do that.

It'd be a massive gamble. But if Clarko and Viney reckon we're projecting to be 5 or 6 next year, it's worth it. Maybe.

Watson, Reid and an end-of-round-1 PP in one draft would be a massive haul.

But.

I'm not sure that deal is better for WC than the Dee's deal? Surely they'd want a top 10 in this years?

So, that just leaves us with the option of offering pick 2/3, pick ~14, and the Mckay compo for pick 1, and only if McKay leaves.

Would you do that?

 

[Lomas]

Ok, bear with me here.

Let's go with the averages and say Melbourne has 7, 17, and a probable F16.

And you're West Coast and you know Harley Reid doesn't want to leave his family in Victoria.

I guess the first question becomes: what's the best deal you can get for 1.

GWS have the draft capital - picks 4 and 6 - but Harley doesn't want to come to Sydney.

The Bulldogs have three first round picks in the next two years - but neither of them this year (theirs and the Lions') will be top 10.

(Doubtful next years will be either.)

Then there's us.

In terms of real draft ammunition, we are projecting to have

• pick 2 or 3,
• around pick ~14 (Port's),
• POSSIBLY an end-of-round-1 from McKay going,
• POSSIBLY an end-of-round-1 PP that we won't be allowed to trade for anything but a player (going by last year's rules), and
• our F1.

If we could do our F1, and pick ~14, an end of round compo pick for McKay, I suppose we could back ourselves in to do that.

It'd be a massive gamble. But if Clarko and Viney reckon we're projecting to be 5 or 6 next year, it's worth it.

Watson, Reid and an end-of-round-1 PP in one draft would be a massive haul.

But.

I'm not sure that deal is better for WC than the Dee's deal? Surely they'd want a top 10 in this years?

So, that just leaves us with the option of offering pick 2/3, pick ~14, and the Mckay compo for pick 1.

Would you do that?

Our future pick should be off the table for anything less than a top ten and something in the range of 10 to 13.
Even then I’d be scared.
If McKay goes, we are silly not to match if we get an end off first round.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Our future pick should be off the table for anything less than a top ten and something in the range of 10 to 13.
Even then I’d be scared.
If McKay goes, we are silly not to match if we get an end off first round.

So if West Coast get pick 1, and Harley Reid doesn't want to leave Victoria, what do you reckon happens then?

 

[Harris 10]

Our future pick should be off the table for anything less than a top ten and something in the range of 10 to 13.
Even then I’d be scared.
If McKay goes, we are silly not to match if we get an end off first round.

I’m still of the opinion that if Mckay goes it will be 1st round compo. A deal will be done like it was with Daniher to make sure it is and then once he joins the new club an extension on less money will get done.

 

[Hazey1977]

So if West Coast get pick 1, and Harley Reid doesn't want to leave Victoria, what do you reckon happens then?

He sits out for a year for draft tampering..... Jks

On SM-G781B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Harris 10]

So if West Coast get pick 1, and Harley Reid doesn't want to leave Victoria, what do you reckon happens then?

They’ll back themselves in if the deal isn’t strong enough.

 

[Hazey1977]

They’ll back themselves in if the deal isn’t strong enough.

HJ's, Bachelor and MBA from ECU, we all joke but ....

On SM-G781B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Lomas]

So if West Coast get pick 1, and Harley Reid doesn't want to leave Victoria, what do you reckon happens then?

Depends on us finishing 2nd last or 3rd last. We have to give them something to appease the AFL/media.
2nd last our first and Port’s.
Third last, our first, Ports and a future pick.

 

[Makeshift Park]

They’ll back themselves in if the deal isn’t strong enough.

The other thing we know is that GC have 3 academy kids that look like they might feature highly in the draft. The Suns only have 1 first rounder, two late second rounders, and some thirds.

(I've read that Jed Walter could go top 10, Jake Rogers could go late first round, Ethan Read could go second round, or thereabouts. I wouldn't know them from a bar of soap myself.)

If that was the case, Melbourne could do this with GC:




Then they could offer 7, 8 and F1 for #1

 

[Makeshift Park]

Depends on us finishing 2nd last or 3rd last. We have to give them something to appease the AFL/media.
2nd last our first and Port’s.
Third last, our first, Ports and a future pick.

Assume by "a future pick" you mean our first rounder.

How low can we go in 2024 for the second deal to be worth it?

If we end up fourth or fifth from the bottom next year, do you reckon the cost is still justified?

 

[Lomas]

Assume by "a future pick" you mean our first rounder.

How low can we go in 2024 for the second deal to be worth it?

If we end up fourth or fifth from the bottom next year, do you reckon the cost is still justified?

I’d be looking at our second.

 

[Makeshift Park]

I’d be looking at our second.

So basically you seem to be saying that if West Coast get pick 1 and Harley Reid doesn't want to leave Victoria, Harley Reid is probably at Arden St.

 

[Lomas]

So basically you seem to be saying that if West Coast get pick 1 and Harley Reid doesn't want to leave Victoria, Harley Reid is probably at Arden St.

If we come second last, yes. Even third last probably, but costs more.

 

[Makeshift Park]

If we come second last, yes. Even third last probably, but costs more.

Means they could get 2 of Curtin, Tholstrup and Edwards. You could be onto something.

 

[Tas]

This thread is sad...

 

[pushintheback]

So basically you seem to be saying that if West Coast get pick 1 and Harley Reid doesn't want to leave Victoria, Harley Reid is probably at Arden St.

If WCE get pick #1 they will trade it to the highest bid. (Probably Melbourne)

If the kangas finish last you get Reid. If the Kangas finish 2nd or 3rd last you will need to package 3 first round picks to get him.

 

[Makeshift Park]

If WCE get pick #1 they will trade it to the highest bid. (Probably Melbourne)

If the kangas finish last you get Reid. If the Kangas finish 2nd or 3rd last you will need to package 3 first round picks to get him.

West Coast probably wouldn’t be able to get Daniel Curtin with Melbourne’s picks.

They could with ours.

It’s something like:

2 + 14
Vs
7 + 17 + 17

The difference in points value is about a fourth rounder.

 

[guapo]

I’m sure I will get a clear Yes in response to my question, but is this kid really worth 2 first round picks before he’s even played a game?