Opinion Commentary & Media VII

[Psicosis]

I'm glad we don't have an easy start to the season. Nowhere to hide. Need to improve. We deserve the heat if we don't.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Ah the old off-season content creation.

If we don’t at least beat Freo in Melbourne in the first six weeks, we may as well pack it all up.

 

[roo blitz]

Ralph has us 0-6 after 6 rounds. Anyone expect us to win any of these?

Jon Ralph’s ladder and predictions for the first six rounds of 2024​

The 2023 season will be close to impossible to top, but which teams will be the early story of 2024? JON RALPH picks every game from the first six rounds and where your side will be placed.

November 27, 2023 - 6:00AM
News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/.../69e2c52529135d409804c03d77856ec8#share-tools

AFL​

Seventeen years ago Anthony Hudson thundered his approval that the sequel to the epic 2005 Grand Final had been just as good as the original.
‘Huddo’ better spend the next 12 months coming up with something special because nothing will eclipse the 2023 grand final.
We surely aren’t getting Godfather II or The Empire Strikes Back.
It was an impossible-to-top grand final with insanely good goals and momentum shifts in a season full of shock upsets, a Rising Star battle with twists and turns and a jaw-dropping Brownlow Medal finish.
And yet if Andrew Dillon will have a hard task in many ways following Gillon McLachlan – oozing charisma and keen to steal all the legacy moments as he departed- the new boss has a secret weapon.
If West Coast and North Melbourne can get their act together and win 10 games between them this might be as close a season as we have seen in the modern era.
SCROLL DOWN FOR RALPHY’S PREDICTED WINNERS AND LADDER

2023 was a season for the ages, with a famous finish. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Tasked with the unenviable job of picking the ladder order and winners of the first six rounds the previous November – talk about a tough act – two things become clear.
Good luck predicting which of eight legitimate finals contenders which missed finals this year will squeeze into the last spot in the eight.
And watch out for some recent flag contenders to fight hard to stay out of the bottom four considering the extraordinary evenness of the competition.
As recently as 2018, the bottom four teams after 23 rounds were Brisbane (15th with a 5-17 win-loss tally), St Kilda (16th and 4-17), Gold Coast (17th and 4-18) and Carlton (2-20).
Brisbane and Carlton were easybeats, Gold Coast was an embarrassment, St Kilda was stuck in another rebuild.
Six years on the Blues and Brisbane have come off a classic preliminary final encounter, Gold Coast is as progressed as it ever has been and the Saints will be at the heart of that finals logjam.
Last year Gold Coast finished fourth-last and yet they won nine games, with Hawthorn finishing 16th despite a 7-16 win-loss record.
So the competition is tightening up.
Fewer teams on interminable 6-8 year rebuilds, fewer premiership winners driving at full speed off a list cliff in sake of one more flag, more teams using all the list allowances at their disposals to build elite lists with finals-worthy talent.

The Power could be quick out of the blocks in 2024. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Every one of this year’s top eight on paper have grounds to improve – even Melbourne despite the question marks over their 2023 season.
And the teams in 9th-15th all have legitimate finals claims even if Richmond and Geelong will go into 2024 aware many are labelling them old and washed up after so much premiership glory.
Port Adelaide will be disappointed if it does not explode into the 2024 season given the first six rounds hand the Power four Adelaide Oval clashes – West Coast, Melbourne, Essendon and Fremantle – plus a winnable MCG clash against Richmond.
Round 6 brings the premiers at the MCG but the Power would hope to be unbeaten by then _ and with a round 7 home clash against St Kilda.
Melbourne will believe it is a premiership force if it can put a summer of dramas behind it.
But the first six weeks are so tough – Sydney away, the Dogs and Hawks, then Port Adelaide AND Adelaide away, then Brisbane at the MCG.
Turn anything less than 3-3 and the jungle drums will start beating early.
And Adem Yze’s bid to replicate the GWS march up the ladder as a first-year coach faces early challenges.
Gold Coast away, then finals contenders Carlton Sydney and Port Adelaide before 2023 finalists St Kilda and then West Coast.
Hawthorn? They are a legitimate question mark given their 2023 season was such a rollercoaster – amazing upsets over St Kilda, Collingwood and the Dogs yet nine losses by six goals and three more by over four goals.
Yet in adding Nick Watson, Jack Ginnivan, Mabior Chol and premiership star Jack Gunston with 12 more months of development no one would be surprised if they won 10 games.
So often we have gone into a season with four to six teams in full-blown rebuild mode.
This year everyone knew the Eagles and Roos would be an embarrassment, the Hawks would finish bottom four and believed GWS and Essendon would struggle given the time it would take for new coaches to acclimatise.

Sam Mitchell’s Hawks could surprise plenty. Pic: Michael Klein
Instead Essendon and the Giants were revelations – at least until the Dons’ late capitulation.
And a year on those teams in the chasing pack should all believe they are finals bound.
Essendon, having fixed its defence with Ben McKay and added key talent across every line.
Adelaide, aware it must combine natural improvement from the 19-23 year old brigade (Josh Rachele, Max Michalanney, Riley Thilthorpe, Luke Pedlar, Jake Soligo) AND eke another monster year from Tex Walker.
The Western Bulldogs, who to be blunt will surely remove their senior coach if he misses finals in back-to-back seasons with the list of talent they have at their disposal.
And Gold Coast.
If we are honest, this club has dished up a decade of excuses with some of them valid and some of them lame.
Too young, unlucky with injuries (Gary Ablett), then salary cap too overburdened, then the wrong coach (Guy McKenna, then Rodney Eade then Stuart Dew).
Then unfairly raided by heartland clubs as the twin captains departed in one year.
Now that Damien Hardwick is on board and the list is absolutely stacked the excuses have to stop.
Put up or shut up.
So Dillon and his fixturing team have put together a season with wall-to-wall Thursday nights until round 15 and two gimmicks in Gather Round and “Opening Round”.
But it might be the evenness of the season which is the league’s greatest weapon as Dillon attempts to continue the game’s remarkable hot stream post-Covid.

OPENING ROUND​

WINNERS IN CAPITAL LETTERS
SYDNEY v Melbourne, SCG
BRISBANE v Carlton, Gabba
GOLD COAST v Richmond, Heritage Bank Stadium
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY v Collingwood, Giants Stadium
Byes: Adelaide Crows, Essendon, Fremantle, Geelong Cats, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, West Coast Eagles, Western Bulldogs

ROUND ONE​

WINNERS IN CAPITAL LETTERS
CARLTON v Richmond, MCG
COLLINGWOOD v Sydney, MCG
ESSENDON v Hawthorn, MCG
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY v North Melbourne, Giants Stadium
GEELONG v St Kilda, GMHBA Stadium
GOLD COAST v Adelaide, Heritage Bank Stadium
MELBOURNE v Western Bulldogs, MCG
PORT ADELAIDE v West Coast, Adelaide Oval
Fremantle v BRISBANE, Optus Stadium

Will the Giants get revenge to kick off 2024? (Photo by Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

ROUND TWO​

WINNERS IN CAPITAL LETTERS
St Kilda v COLLINGWOOD, MCG
ADELAIDE v Geelong, Adelaide Oval
North Melbourne v FREMANTLE, Marvel Stadium
Hawthorn v MELBOURNE, MCG
SYDNEY v Essendon, SCG
WESTERN Bulldogs v Gold Coast, Mars Stadium
Richmond v PORT ADELAIDE, MCG
West Coast v GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY, Optus Stadium
Byes: Brisbane, Carlton

ROUND THREE​

WINNERS IN CAPITAL LETTERS
Brisbane v COLLINGWOOD, Gabba
North Melbourne v CARLTON, Marvel Stadium
FREMANTLE v Adelaide, Optus Stadium
Essendon v ST KILDA, Marvel Stadium
PORT ADELAIDE v Melbourne, Adelaide Oval
WESTERN BULLDOGS v West Coast, Marvel Stadium
RICHMOND v Sydney, MCG
HAWTHORN v Geelong, MCG
Byes: Gold Coast SUNS, GWS GIANTS

It will be a tough start to 2024 for Clarko’s Kangaroos. Picture: David Crosling

ROUND FOUR​

WINNERS IN CAPITAL LETTERS
ADELAIDE v Melbourne, Adelaide Oval
BRISBANE v North Melbourne, Norwood Oval
PORT ADELAIDE v Essendon, Adelaide Oval
WEST COAST v Sydney, Mount Barker
Fremantle v CARLTON, Adelaide Oval
WESTERN BULLDOGS v Geelong, Adelaide Oval
GOLD COAST v Greater Western Sydney, Mount Barker
RICHMOND v St Kilda, Norwood Oval
COLLINGWOOD v Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval

Can the Crows light up Gather Round again? Photo by Phil Hillyard

ROUND FIVE​

WINNERS IN CAPITAL LETTERS
MELBOURNE v Brisbane, MCG
Western Bulldogs v ESSENDON, Marvel Stadium
Greater Western Sydney v ST KILDA, Manuka Oval
Carlton v ADELAIDE, Marvel Stadium
PORT ADELAIDE v Fremantle, Adelaide Oval
Gold Coast v HAWTHORN, Heritage Bank Stadium
GEELONG v North Melbourne, GMHBA Stadium
WEST COAST v Richmond, Optus Stadium
Byes: Collingwood, Sydney Swans

ROUND SIX​

WINNERS IN CAPITAL LETTERS
ST KILDA v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium
Adelaide v ESSENDON, Adelaide Oval
COLLINGWOOD v Port Adelaide, MCG
CARLTON v Greater Western Sydney, Marvel Stadium
BRISBANE v Geelong, Gabba
West Coast v FREMANTLE, Optus Stadium
SYDNEY v Gold Coast, SCG
North Melbourne v HAWTHORN, Marvel Stadium
Byes: Melbourne, Richmond

PREDICTED LADDER AFTER ROUND 6 INCLUDING “OPENING ROUND”​

1. PORT ADELAIDE 5-1*
2. COLLINGWOOD 5-1*
3. CARLTON 4-2*
4. BRISBANE 4-2*
5. SYDNEY 3-3*
6. GWS 3-3*
7. ST KILDA 3-3*
8. GOLD COAST 3-3*
9. ADELAIDE 3-3*
10. ESSENDON 3-3*
11. MELBOURNE 3-3* (Swans away, Dogs at MCG, Hawks, then Port and Adelaide away, then Brisbane at MCG)
12. WESTERN BULLDOGS 3-3*
13. FREMANTLE 3-3*
14. HAWTHORN 3-3*
15. RICHMOND 2-4* (challenges with Suns away, Blues, Sydney then Port Adelaide. Then St Kilda, Eagles)
16. GEELONG 2-4*
17. WEST COAST 2-4*
18. NORTH MELBOURNE 0-6
Percentage will determine actual ladder position

Pretty pointless exercise by Ralphy. Just click bait stuff for the sake of it and yes I read it

 

[Rod Stroker]

Click bait.

The outrage reminds me how well we have done ...

View attachment 1861425

we should go back and request more assistance... additional SSP slots... just for the melts

 

[Samsquanch]

If we don’t at least beat Freo in Melbourne in the first six weeks, we may as well pack it all up.

And hopefully, Carlton as well. Just as payback for that annoying supporter that sat behind hsquid and I last Good Friday. I don't wish injuries on anybody but if Saad had broken his leg in the first quarter of that match my brain would be better today than it is after hearing her scream out his name every time she thought the ball might bet to within 50 or 60 metres of him.

 

[RHLK]

This really doesn't achieve much unless they apply the same restrictions to the Northern Academies. Swans and Lions should only have access to NGA as they have been around long enough to get their own father sons.

Swans have been around long enough that they can even get other club's father/sons.

I flipping hate Sydney.

 

[chubbspeterson]

We can be 2-4 or 3-3 at end of round 6. Hawks/Freo/Cats more winnable but those finals teams might start a bit slow so who knows.

 

[DunderHead]

We can be 2-4 or 3-3 at end of round 6. Hawks/Freo/Cats more winnable but those finals teams might start a bit slow so who knows.

Yeah very early playing good teams can be taken advantage of.

But like any year some teams hit form early and you can’t tell who it’s going to be. Freo could come out and should come out breathing fire next year.

I suspect Port will start the season better than last year too.

 

[ferball]

As ferball said, one of this years later 1st round picks was actually the poorta traded in for horne. Fair enough that Luke McDonald was a FS pick but cost a first round selection when really, that's overs but well, you know...

So, the media slam North again. Not a surprise.

Yeah. In some ways Lmac feels like a penalty not a bonus pick.

 

[zoomba23]

We'll beat Fremantle and Hawthorn.

We won't beat Hawthorn. I fellate them on here but the way they play matches up ****ing perfectly against us. Freo, I'm more bullish on

 

[Val Keating]

Click bait.

The outrage reminds me how well we have done ...

View attachment 1861425

GWS have 19 first round picks, Gold Coast have heaps too, but the journalists dare not go after the teams the AFL own.

 

[Ashley B]

Fk we havent started next season very well lol

 

[DuckYeah]

We won't beat Hawthorn. I fellate them on here but the way they play matches up ******* perfectly against us. Freo, I'm more bullish on

Yes we will. LDU will beat them on his own.

 

[The Other Dean]

Fk we havent started next season very well lol

Don't worry, Ash, after Round 6 I have us winning the rest of our games for eternity.

It's fun to make up pretend results.

(Disclaimer: Actually, no it's not. Talk about being desperate for content and having a willing dickhead on hand to comply.)

 

[Mav]

Don't worry, Ash, after Round 6 I have us winning the rest of our games for eternity.

It's fun to make up pretend results.

(Disclaimer: Actually, no it's not. Talk about being desperate for content and having a willing dickhead on hand to comply.)

I’m not sure who’s worse, the person who wrote it or those that are dumb enough to read it.

 

[roo blitz]

Pretty pointless exercise by Ralphy. Just click bait stuff for the sake of it

I’m sure who’s worse, the person who wrote it or those that are dumb enough to read it.

Probably both

 

[ferball]

GWS have 19 first round picks, Gold Coast have heaps too, but the journalists dare not go after the teams the AFL own.

* have 19 and Shiel who was pre listed for GWS.

 

[Ashley B]

Should get a few winners on my Sportsbet first 6 rounds so that’s a positive with the Jon Ralph almanac

 

[gustaaf]

I also read the AFLW will be making it so you have to have a pick in the round a bid comes in to match with. Will be interesting to see if that comes in for the mens.

That would be an excellent starting change for the men. It would put an end to the practice of trading down quality picks for lesser or junk picks to accumulate points. It would also more or less restrict clubs to only taking 1 academy pick per round.

The 20% discount doesn't make sense, so I would remove that and instead apply a 20% premium on academy players taken by another club. To bid on pick 1 you'd actually need to bid 3,600 draft points, including your first round pick. Perhaps there could also be a financial compensation (development cost) paid by the drafting club to the club whose academy player has been taken by that other club. That payment could be linked to when the player is taken in the draft, i.e. $100k for 1st round, $50k 2nd round, $25k later rounds.

The same changes could be introduced for Father-Son picks, but without any financial compensation. I know many people see Father-Son as a tradition within the AFL that should be maintained, but it isn't equitable and to the non AFL world it doesn't make any sense to have measures in place that effectively compromise the draft based on pure genetic luck.

 

[amaz199]

The thing is, there's a degree of unpredictability about how we will actually perform because of the coaching changes and list changes. We are much less experienced and the youngest team but we have a lot more talent to blood.

All I am looking for is an exciting brand of football and the complete refusal to kick down the line. We need to become a team that is so hell bent on keeping possession of the ball by working hard to create options. Hopefully the fitness focus will come good!

Our senior players need to change their habits too. It's so tempting to revert back to old ways, but that will get them dropped. Time to support the kids not make the kids do the heavy lifting.

This is all about enforcing standards that will hold up against the best teams. If we don't do that, why bother?

 

[see see]

Don't worry, Ash, after Round 6 I have us winning the rest of our games for eternity.

It's fun to make up pretend results.

(Disclaimer: Actually, no it's not. Talk about being desperate for content and having a willing dickhead on hand to comply.)

Good to have you back The Other Onip

 

[Liam Boy]

The thing is, there's a degree of unpredictability about how we will actually perform because of the coaching changes and list changes. We are much less experienced and the youngest team but we have a lot more talent to blood.

All I am looking for is an exciting brand of football and the complete refusal to kick down the line. We need to become a team that is so hell bent on keeping possession of the ball by working hard to create options. Hopefully the fitness focus will come good!

Our senior players need to change their habits too. It's so tempting to revert back to old ways, but that will get them dropped. Time to support the kids not make the kids do the heavy lifting.

This is all about enforcing standards that will hold up against the best teams. If we don't do that, why bother?

The experience that we've lost is mostly Ziebell, Goldstein and Cunnington though. Goldy is the only one who did much for us last year. All the young guys who were the engine of our few wins will keep getting better.

 

[Jeremy Jordan]

I can see it now, Jesus will come back and read Ralph’s game predictor article.

His first guess will be that it was written by a 12 year old Port Adelaide supporter who’s mum told him to go to bed but he couldn’t sleep so she said ‘why don’t you write down what you thinks going to happen next year for the mighty Port Power now the footy draw is out’.

Someone will the let Jesus know that the article was actually written by an adult. Not only an adult, but one who is actually considered a senior AFL journalist and is paid to write such articles.

Then he will start the rapture.

 

[Tas]

I just want to see a bit more system in the middle, in terms of ball movement and defensive pressure. I think if we focus on doing the basics really well then it will have an immediate effect in terms of wins.

 

[Samsquanch]

I can see it now, Jesus will come back and read Ralph’s game predictor article.

His first guess will be that it was written by a 12 year old Port Adelaide supporter who’s mum told him to go to bed but he couldn’t sleep so she said ‘why don’t you write down what you thinks going to happen next year for the mighty Port Power now the footy draw is out’.

Someone will the let Jesus know that the article was actually written by an adult. Not only an adult, but one who is actually considered a senior AFL journalist and is paid to write such articles.

Then he will start the rapture.

Jeremey, your last name isn't "Leary" is it?