NCAA 2023 - NCAA - Week 14 - Championship Weekend

[aussiedude]

Saturday, December 2
C-USA Championship Game
New Mexico State @ Liberty 11AM CBSSN

PAC-12 Championship Game
Oregon Vs Washington 12PM ESPN2 WatchESPN Kayo


Sunday, December 3
BIG XII Championship Game
Oklahoma State Vs Texas 4AM ESPN WatchESPN Kayo

MAC Championship Game
Miami [OH] Vs Toledo 4AM ESPN2 WatchESPN Kayo

MW Championship Game
Boise State Vs UNLV 7AM FOX

SEC Championship Game
Alabama Vs Georgia 8AM CBS

AAC Championship Game
SMU @ Tulane 8AM WatchESPN

Sun-Belt Championship Game
Appalachian State @ Troy 8AM WatchESPN

BIG10 Championship Game
Michigan Vs Iowa 12PM FOX

ACC Championship Game
Louisville Vs Florida State 12PM WatchESPN

 

[Back One Out]

Seriously, it's super insensitive be posting gambling bullshit where people don't expect to see it.

Okay mate. Point taken

I had no idea anyone would be so triggered by seeing someone using the betting markets as an approximate guide to various team's chances of winning. I do it all the time on the AFL main board. Nobody ever pulled me up about it before. But in future, I'll keep you in mind and I'll try to refrain from posting tables of odds and betting lines on here.

It's not as though I was discussing actual gambling. i.e. talking about all the multi-bets I'd made and all the money I'd outlaid and stood to win. I was simply using the bookie's odds as a far more accurate indicator of Bama's possible playoff chances than aussiedude saying they have a 5% chance of making the final 4 and plucking this figure out of his rectum. Clearly, their chances of making the semi finals are closer to 33% than 5%

 

[nobbyiscool]

Okay mate. Point taken

I had no idea anyone would be so triggered by seeing someone using the betting markets as an approximate guide to various team's chances of winning. I do it all the time on the AFL main board. Nobody ever pulled me up about it before. But in future, I'll keep you in mind and I'll try to refrain from posting tables of odds and betting lines on here.

It's not as though I was discussing actual gambling. i.e. talking about all the multi-bets I'd made and all the money I'd outlaid and stood to win. I was just using the bookie's odds as a far more accurate indicator of Bama's possible playoff chances than aussiedude saying they have a 5% chance of making the final 4 and plucking this figure out of his rectum. Clearly, their chances of making the semi finals are closer to 33% than 5%

It triggers me badly cos I've been a problem gambler, I've had an old mate lose literally everything and go to jail this year as a result of problem gambling. Which I hope explains my overreaction on the subject.

It's hard enough watching literally any sport, but you can at least prepare for that. It's when I don't expect to see it that it upsets me.

 

[aussiedude]

You added this bit to your post while I was typing my previous reply...

You know you're wrong. So now you're shifting the goalposts of our little debate. Nobody ever claimed Alabama had a snowflakes chance in hell of making the playoffs if they lost to Georgia. Not with so many undefeated teams in contention this year.

It was you, not me, who gave Alabama no chance of running the table and finishing their scheduled season with a 12-1 record. You assumed that "struggling" Bama would lose at least one more game vs Tennessee, LSU, Kentucky, or Auburn

That was why you dismissed the poster who came on here a couple of months ago and asked why Bama was at juicy long odds to win the natty.


Even last weekend, you still tried to claim Alabama couldn't make the playoffs even if they beat Georgia.

I pointed it out to you they were still very much alive.


Not my problem, if you're too smooth-brained to accept my wisdom.

Alabama need 4 teams above them to lose in order to make it [1 is going to happen with the Pac-12 loser, the other would need to be Alabama beating Georgia] then need 2 of Texas, Michigan or FSU to lose.
Because they are not making it over Texas who beat them H2H and both would be Champs, they are not making it over a undefeated champ in Michigan or FSU.

If Alabama were 6th i would give them a good chance to make it with just a win, but at 8 they need a lot of help. And clearly the CFP like the Texas H2H win since they have kept them above Alabama.

You are too narrow minded to look at the other teams with how focused you are with Alabama.

 

[Back One Out]

It triggers me badly cos I've been a problem gambler, I've had an old mate lose literally everything and go to jail this year as a result of problem gambling. Which I hope explains my overreaction on the subject.

It's hard enough watching literally any sport, but you can at least prepare for that. It's when I don't expect to see it that it upsets me.

Yeah... Look, I gathered it was a personal thing. No worries, mate.

Like it or hate it, the betting markets usually ARE the best guide when discussing a team's chances.

As they say, "Money talks, bullshit walks"

But I agree with those who get irritated by the saturation coverage of sports betting and how it gets in the way of actual football discussion.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Yeah... Look, I gathered it was a personal thing. No worries, mate.

Like it or hate it, the betting markets usually ARE the best guide when discussing a team's chances.

As they say, "Money talks, bullshit walks"

But I agree with those who get irritated by the saturation coverage of sports betting and how it gets in the way of actual football discussion.

How it becomes intwined with discussions about sport. The fact that kids are so exposed to it, think it's normal, can quote odds, and can discuss odds in the context of a footy game is literally one of the biggest public policy failures of my lifetime, irrespective of my personal experiences with it. The genie's out of the bottle though, I don't imagine gambling advertising ever going the way of cigarette advertising.

 

[aussiedude]

Not sure why you keep putting a space between teams 5/6 (Oregon, Ohio State) and 7/8 (Texas, Alabama) in your OP.
Seems more like wishful thinking on your part than the actual reality of the playoff chances and permutations.

I have always done it this way. because thats how the have been revealed since year 1.

 

[Back One Out]

Alabama need 4 teams above them to lose in order to make it

No, they don't.

They just need to beat Georgia (no biggie! ) and hope either Michigan, Texas or Florida State lose this weekend.

Michigan won't lose. Texas probably won't. But I think the 'Noles could get rolled.


The playoff contenders:

• the SEC Champs (whoever it is, either Georgia or Alabama, probably Georgia...)
• Pac-12 champs (either Washington or Oregon)
• Michigan (if they are Big Ten champs)
• FSU (if they are ACC champs)
• Texas (if they are Big 12 champs)

If any one of those last three teams lose this weekend, they will be in trouble. FSU and Texas will be goneski. No chance of them getting in the playoffs if they can't win their conferences. Same for the Huskies.

Georgia or Michigan might still get in with a loss, but they'll be relying on others losing.
It will be playoff committee "roulette" with Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio State all on one loss.

-----------------------------------------------

You can't seem to grasp that an Alabama victory over the undefeated B2B champion... the 12-0, #1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs will be the best win this season by any of the playoff contenders and it WILL vault them over the other contenders. Maybe not Texas, due to the head-to-head record from week 2. The CFP committee have previously said they place more weight upon recent form than on early season lapses, but I agree, it would hard for them to overlook that result.

You do seem to be stuck on the past rankings and seem to think the championship games won't matter. e.g. Crapping on about the difficulty of "moving up 4 spots"... HOWEVER... If #1 Georgia lose to #8 Alabama, then you can forget those week 13 rankings: the Bulldogs will slide down 4 or 5 spots and Bama will move above them and OSU. This weekend's conference championships games are virtual playoff eliminators. Comprendez?

The really interesting conundrum for the committee will be whether they snub the SEC if Michigan, Oregon, FSU, Texas and Alabama all win

With a win over Georgia (and the SEC championship belt), Alabama are still a possibility of being ranked ahead of Oregon or Texas even if those teams both win. Like I've said earlier, it's going to be difficult for the CFP committee to leave out the 12-1 SEC champs in favour of the 12-1 Pac 12 champs or the 12-1 Big 12 champs.

You are too narrow minded to look at the other teams with how focused you are with Alabama.

No. I think you are the one who is narrow-minded. I don't know if it's your hate for Alabama, your weariness of all their success. Or if it's simply because you've painted yourself into a corner after dismissing them all season long.

Or maybe you're just trolling me. Which is a distinct possibility...

Anyway, I've said my bit. It's a lot of postings by me about a team rated as only a 33% chance of beating Georgia this weekend and with Jalen f@$&%n Milroe at quarterback. But should they cause an upset, there will be 2 near-certainties.

1) they'll be in the playoffs
2) you'll be butt!hurt and complaining about the favouritism from the CFP committee

 

[aussiedude]

If you want we can put something on it.
If Alabama, Michigan, FSU, Texas all win and Alabama make it i will donate $50 or 100 to a charity of your choice, or you if you prefer. That same combo win and Alabama miss you donate whichever we agree on to a charity of my choice.

 

[Back One Out]

If you want we can put something on it.
If Alabama, Michigan, FSU, Texas all win and Alabama make it i will donate $50 or 100 to a charity of your choice, or you if you prefer. That same combo win and Alabama miss you donate whichever we agree on to a charity of my choice.

Ah! I see you're changing your tune. Before you said Alabama had to rely on 4 teams above them losing. Now you've finally seen the light that if they can beat Georgia, they'd only need one of those other teams to lose and a playoff berth would be a certainty.

We're making progress, aussiedude!

But I'm little concerned about your persistent attempts at luring me into gambling my money away

Didn't you read nobbyiscool's posts on this very page?

First you try to bet with me about Georgia v Alabama, when I've made it pretty clear I think the Bulldogs will win
Next you try to bet with me about the one scenario which I've acknowledged might keep a 12-1 Bama (undeservedly) in 5th place.





If Alabama, Michigan, FSU, Texas all win, then as I've said a few times already, it will be quite the conundrum for the playoff committee whether to snub the SEC and overlook Bama's 11 game win streak versus the likes of Georgia, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky and Auburn, and reward Texas for beating them in week 2. I said I agreed with you, it would be hard to overlook the H2H record.

What about if Oregon beat Washington and finish 12-1? Who exactly have the Ducks beaten this year?
1-1 vs the Huskies, plus wins over Utah, USC, Cal, Texas Tech and the mighty Beavers

But it's the playoff committee. These things get political. Who knows which way they will go? Especially with the Pac-12 being blown up and Texas joining the SEC next year.

 

[aussiedude]

You have gone from posting betting odds to condemning a wager for a charity donation.

I have never changed my stance. I'm not blinded by the name. If Tennessee or Ole Miss were the 1 loss team in the SEC title game I would also give them no chance outside of chaos. The eye test over the season has not been kind to Alabama. This isn't one of those old Alabama teams, with NIL and such teams have caught up or passed them. Same with Clemson.

The whole thing about 4 best teams has always been a myth. Because if Georgia lose are they not a top 4 team.

I think the top 4 will on Monday will be Georgia, Michigan, Oregon and FSU.

And even with a SEC title I don't see Alabama jumping Pac12 champ, Texas Champ, Michigan champ or Undefeated FSU.
Yes beating Georgia would be a huge win, not enough to jump Champs already ahead of them with 2 or 3 of then being undefeated and the cfp clearly favor Texas with the H2H.

A normal year where there will be 3-4 1 loss Champs they would be a big chance of being a top 4 team with a win on sunday

 

[AJ_2000]

As ordinary as Alabama has been playing, if they beat Georgia then they're going in to the CFP.

No doubt in my mind that the committee wouldn't make that call.

They'd have the best win in College Football, and an SEC title, and one early loss to a highly ranked team - all the ingredients needed

 

[AJ_2000]

 

[AJ_2000]

Never forget he wore that hat to the press conference to remind them of his success

 

[balmainforever]

* off with your gambling infecting sport bullshit, take it to the punting board where we can ignore it.

Nah. I don’t want to deal with him twice.

 

[balmainforever]

Most likely scenario according to the betting markets...

(-6) Georgia def. Alabama
(-23) Michigan def. Iowa
(-9.5) Oregon def. Washington
(-2.5) Florida State def. Louisville
(-14.5) Texas def. Oklahoma State


If all the favourites win, then the playoff rankings will be...

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Florida State (13-0)
4. Oregon or Texas (12-1)

Perhaps it might be better if you go via ESPN and use the winning percentage

 

[Dirty Bird]

Alabama need 4 teams above them to lose in order to make it [1 is going to happen with the Pac-12 loser, the other would need to be Alabama beating Georgia] then need 2 of Texas, Michigan or FSU to lose.
Because they are not making it over Texas who beat them H2H and both would be Champs, they are not making it over a undefeated champ in Michigan or FSU.

If Alabama were 6th i would give them a good chance to make it with just a win, but at 8 they need a lot of help. And clearly the CFP like the Texas H2H win since they have kept them above Alabama.

You are too narrow minded to look at the other teams with how focused you are with Alabama.

surely by now you would know that the panel do rough rankings all year, then do their only serious one in the one that counts

I remember a #3 1 loss (to a 1 loss team) winning their final game by 52 points and getting jumped by the #6 1 loss team (to a 6 loss team) winning their final game by 59 points at the final rankings.

You know that if Bama win, they'd jump Georgia with h2h and conference title. Yet they'd brush off the result with Texas as early in the season before Bama got going, and the SEC is better than the Big XII (Even if it isn't) the SEC Champ will be in (Even if they shouldn't be)

 

[Jatz]

Perhaps it might be better if you go via ESPN and use the winning percentage
View attachment 1863536

Found those winning percentages to be very average at times.

I guess that's the nature of predictions though.

 

[Back One Out]

You know that if Bama win, they'd jump Georgia with h2h and conference title. Yet they'd brush off the result with Texas as early in the season before Bama got going, and the SEC is better than the Big XII (Even if it isn't) the SEC Champ will be in (Even if they shouldn't be)

It's high time people stopped whining about the supposed "favouritism" shown towards the SEC

Below is the win/loss breakdown of the CFB playoffs over the 9 years. The skewed results would indicate the SEC deserves greater representation in the Top 4 seedings. Not less. It's plain to see there is a clear bias against the SEC by the various rankings systems.


Playoff wins, losses

SEC.............. 16-5 (14-3 vs non-SEC)
Alabama........... 9–4 (1 loss to Georgia, 2 losses to Clemson, 1 to Ohio State)
Georgia............ 5–1 (1 loss to Alabama)
LSU.................. 2–0

ACC................ 6-5
Clemson............ 6–4
Florida State....... 0–1

Ind.
Notre Dame........ 0–2

Big Ten........... 3-7
Ohio State.......... 3–4
Michigan............. 0–2
Michigan State..... 0–1

Big 12............. 1-5
Oklahoma........... 0–4
TCU.................... 1–1

Pac-12............. 1-2
Oregon................ 1–1
Washington.......... 0–1

AAC
Cincinnati............ 0–1



Thank god for Dabo Swinney, Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and all the other Clemson All-Americans from the Deep South. Without Clemson's solid contribution to the CFB playoffs, things would be even more embarrassing for the non-SEC teams.

SEC................. 16 wins, 5 losses (0.762)
vs non-SEC....... 14 wins, 3 losses (0.824)

Non-SEC......... 11 wins, 22 losses (0.333)
Minus Clemson... 5 wins, 18 losses (0.217)






Let's go all the way back to 1998 and include all the BCS National Championship games

SEC.......... 24 wins, 7 losses (76%) Only 4 losses in 29 games vs non-SEC teams
Non-SEC... 18 wins, 36 losses (33%)

15 national champs from the SEC:
Alabama (6)... LSU (3)... Georgia (2)... Florida (2)... Auburn... Tennessee

9 national champs from other conferences:
Clemson (2)... Florida St (2)... Ohio State (2)... Miami... Texas... Oklahoma... USC*



The problem is we keep pretending the "Power 5" conference are equals. We keep elevating undeserving teams who pad their resumé with wins over mediocre conference rivals such as Nebraska, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Syracuse, Boston, Pitt, Wake Forest, Virginia, Colorado, Oregon State, California, Arizona, etc.

LOL at people talking about the "eye test"... (basing their opinions on one-sided wins vs substandard conference rivals)

The leading teams from the Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and Pac-12 are fully tested only 2-3 times throughout the season, whereas Alabama has navigated the SEC minefield this season and must now beat the undefeated, back-to back national champions this weekend just to be included in the playoff discussion. Hilarious that people such as yourself can't acknowledge this reality. So twisted...

 

[TRUMAN#1]

The whole thing will be a bit more mute next season when it goes to 12 teams.

Well I guess we could start arguing over who makes the 11th and 12th teams in.

 

[gaskin]

I still think 12 teams is too many and the same teams are still going to be there at the end. It should have gone to 6 or 8 at the most. If we look at 9-12 (Missouri, Penn State, Ole Miss, Oklahoma) can we really see them beating any of the current top 8 other than FSU without Jordan Travis (I'd argue FSU would lose to all 4 teams even with Travis)? All of them have had a shot at one or multiple of the top 8 and all bar Oklahoma against Texas have come up short (I'd still back Texas if they played again).

 

[Back One Out]

The whole thing will be a bit more mute next season when it goes to 12 teams.
Well I guess we could start arguing over who makes the 11th and 12th teams in.

People will be moaning about the inclusion of 4 SEC teams in the top 12.
e.g This year: Georgia, Alabama, Mizzou, Ole Miss

I'll be shaking my head that a team like LSU (9-3) was left out. We all know they would kick Penn State's arse if they met this weekend with their season on the line. (As opposed to a meaningless bowl game in four weeks time with 8 or 9 stars pulling out so they don't risk getting injured ahead of the NFL draft)

 

[TRUMAN#1]

I still think 12 teams is too many and the same teams are still going to be there at the end. It should have gone to 6 or 8 at the most. If we look at 9-12 (Missouri, Penn State, Ole Miss, Oklahoma) can we really see them beating any of the current top 8 other than FSU without Jordan Travis (I'd argue FSU would lose to all 4 teams even with Travis)? All of them have had a shot at one or multiple of the top 8 and all bar Oklahoma against Texas have come up short (I'd still back Texas if they played again).

I reckon 8 would have been the ideal amount.

 

[gaskin]

People will be moaning about the inclusion of 4 SEC teams in the top 12.
e.g This year: Georgia, Alabama, Mizzou, Ole Miss

I'll be shaking my head that a team like LSU (9-3) was left out. We all know they would kick Penn State's arse if they met this weekend with their season on the line. (As opposed to a meaningless bowl game in four weeks time with 8 or 9 stars pulling out so they don't risk getting injured)

Next season with Texas and Oklahoma it would be 6 of 12.

 

[TRUMAN#1]

Stuff it let's bring in a 64 team Bracket for the Championship.

They don't play enough games anyway.

 

[Back One Out]

Next season with Texas and Oklahoma it would be 6 of 12.

It'll be interesting to see how Texas (11-1) and Oklahoma (10-2) fare next season with the tougher SEC schedule and no easy conference games. Probably a couple more losses. It will be interesting to see how they fare over the next decade, for that matter. I have a hunch they'll both end up as underrated mid-table SEC teams, battling away with the likes of Mizzou, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida and the Aggies. Their relevancy to the national title conversation might become less frequent when they're no longer the big fish in the Big 12 pond.