Come on man.
We lost our last two games by a combined 196 points. I don’t think ‘too much depth’ is an issue
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Come on man.
We lost our last two games by a combined 196 points. I don’t think ‘too much depth’ is an issue
- Apr 23, 2016
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Maybe the issue is that all we have are depth players..?
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What does that have to do with anything?
Half the team was injured or worn out or underdone those games.
Furthermore a majority of those points (can’t remember the exact number) were a direct result of turnovers often off HB.
Since then Essendon has replaced 2 VFL players (Stuart/AMT) with big money AFL listed players and rebalanced the list changing 1x tall defender into another wing (BZT to Dursma) add Goldy, Caddy + the other picks and the team has refreshed about 10% of the list with players who appear to be AFL standard
The flow on effect of that is that there’s more depth across the whole list
It has quite a bit to do with it… teams that are ‘too deep’ don’t lose consecutive games of footy by that much. We are a middle of the road team right now with middle of the road depth, at the absolute best.
If half the team was injured/underdone, why didn’t we use all that depth instead then..?
We also literally didn’t drop a single player after that 126 point loss to GWS. To suggest we have too much depth is just nonsense
I think the VFL side would have shown a bit more if that were the case
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So Ben McKay played that game? Zach Reid? Jordan Ridley? because that’s 50% of the defense
How about Dursma or Gresham. Caldwell, Draper and Stringer were rushed in underdone for the giants game and played like it. Tsatas had been injured most of last year and didn’t have a afl ready rig. None of those 3 played the pies the week after. 2MP also missed the pies game
That’s close to 1/2 the best 18 players on the list plus a few with high hopes. There’s been pretty significant list turnover
- Aug 4, 2019
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As much as I detest blitz, this is basically my logic with Martin playing hbf. Yes whilst you miss out on the gun that is Martin playing wing/hf and being more of a dynamic option in attack, he will be able to set up our game with a different style coming from defence, centered around his creative output. I see him being maybe like Daicos is at Collingwood or Whitters at GWS. Thoughts ant555 ?
ant555
The Oracle
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Agree. It is a loss in a specialized position but a massive win in a spot we need a big win and it is not just his ability to move the footy. He is also a very good mark.
Absolutely, he has the ability to pinpoint passes through the middle/forward of centre like few in our team. Also brave enough to go for that kick to break a game open. He has done if before.
He could be our Coleman (Bris) type
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With Duursma coming in it's not like there's a major void left on the wing if Martin stays at half back. Fitness and form, 2 things Duursma has struggled with over the last couple of seasons, will see how well that void can be filled but putting an optimistic hat on it's not all bad (for what seems like a change).
It’s 100% worth a look. If it doesn’t work....no harm done and we move on. Duursma an adequate wing replacement on paper so the risk reward stacks up.
I think you’re just seeing what you want to see. Every year we don’t win the flag was a year we were cursed with cruel luck.
Reid gas averaged 2 games a season. When he was healthy, he wasn’t best 22. Like it or not, that’s a fact.
Every team has injuries. And we will again this year. It’s impossible not to.
If you think half of our best players were injured, there’s no reasoning with you - apart from letting you know you’re not going to be happy when we finish 9-12th at the end of the year. Like it or not, that’s where our list is at right now.
Also not the absolute end of the world if Duursma spends a bit of time in the VFL this year (if Martin at HB doesn’t work, which I’m personally confident it will).
or developing him into becoming a more defensively accountable winger, which is the more likely objective
I think it’s more the other way. Ridley is an elite user. Redman’s solid. McKay, McGrath, Kelly, Heppell and Lav are below average.
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That’s a take. It’s also not true. I just like thoughtful data analysis and not putting teams in easy categories.
In terms of the list right now I honestly have no expectations. I think there’s an argument based on those losses. Net rating and strength of schedule that Essendon was a bottom 4 side last season and should be about the same this season with a more difficult schedule.
There’s also an argument that suggests those end of season losses were outlier games and they skewed the data and the team was a middle of the pack team last season that has since improved with the addition of McKay, Gresham, dursma, and the natural progression of 3 tall top 10 picks that have expected career outcomes based on draft position and the physical development of tall players.
I get being pessimistic about EFC. Their football department has been pretty rubbish for close to 25 years at this point.
There is also a lot of ignorant entitlement amongst Essendon fans no question.
But all of these factors don’t impact the quantifiable and some of that indicates reason for optimism
I just think that’s oversimplified - they had a chance to respond after the Giants game - Scott came out and pleaded to the fans to attend and assured everyone there wouldn’t be a repeat performance. He then went in the next week, without dropping a single player after a twenty goal loss, and we were down 8-10 goals at quarter time. I don’t think two losses such as those can be seen as outliers.
We were as close to 10th last year as we were to bottom 4. I don’t think it’s being pessimistic, just realistic. We’re not suddenly going to become a good side. I’d guess we’ll be around 9-14th again this year.
The natural progression is also a tough one to argue in our favour - we’re not likely to improve or ‘progress’ any more than the other 17 teams this year.
ant555
The Oracle
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They where ****ed after the Giants game. The coach even admitted they screwed selection up. It is not over complicating things. The last game is what it was. A team that had fallen off the cliff playing the eventual premiers. I think it is fair to say without injuries to key players we could have grafted out another couple of wins despite the last two big losses. My opinion is we will most likely be in the 6th to 12th pack again. However I would not say natural progression for us is hard to argue for. The side looks like it will certainly be different this year.
Where are you getting the extra two wins from? If you want to bring injuries into it, Richmond and North would have beaten us if they were healthy. Every team can argue natural progression, as they should - but why would we progress further or faster than any other side? The sides around us should also progress.
I doubt accountability will be a big part of the role he plays in defence. Assume he’ll play a Daicos-like role and defending will not be his priority. Could be wrong, we’ll see in a few weeks.
- Feb 14, 2023
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They had a chance to respond to that loss against the eventual premiers gearing up for a finals campaign?
I think looking back on it we can accept that was a cooked side that wanted the season to be over. Aside from vindictive I told you so’s there’s not much to take away from that.
Collingwood is a good side and with Ridley in 3 quarters Essendon was up 30 points
Without Ridley they lost 5 quarters by close to 150 points. That’s a fact.
Ridley was a very important piece because he was the only reliable ball user off HB and they were a very different side with him because of that.
As far as natural progression goes that’s based on the list age profile. Essendon has a lot of younger players and is still on an upward curve. Other teams are older and aren’t. It’s not that complicated
ant555
The Oracle
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If we where 90% fit for the whole year then we would absolutely been a chance to win a couple more games. The reason we ended up where we did was 100% because we have an average list but that is the issue with an average list. You lose your best players and you can not cover the loss. Stringer won us games by himself in the back end of 2022. Draper is a better ruck than Phillips. Ridley was our best defender. Shiel was well above average at the start of the season. Wright played the back end but was showing the effect of missing half a season and not close to his 2022 form. If Peter Wright plays to even 3/4 of his 2022 level we beat Port and not lose after the siren. But like I said being an average side we can not cover that stuff.
As for not improving. Well we added a FB that will improve that spot. We added a small forward who is better than what we where playing in Snelling and Geulfi. Duursma gives us options to use Martin to massively improve one of the half back slots. They add some extra depth to the the squad. Now I am not saying they will all be super stars or win us into the top 4 but they will improve 3 areas of the ground baring injury. Goldstein is certainly a better ruck than Phillips as well.
Then we are in the same boat as other sides. We hope that Reid can get on the park and he is on song so far. Harry Jones has not missed any pre season yet. Jake Stringer has a new program that seems to be working. Nate Caddy is showing he could possibly break into the side at some stage . Tsatas is going 200% better than last year. Nick Cox is also in much better shape and is probably in the depth list right now. Durham is actually in better shape than he was last season and there is 100% a better attitude to their training and preparation. Now this is the speculation paragraph for sure. It is not 100% fact that it can or will happen but it is the same sort of stuff that sees "the sides around us " progressing as well. They are the things that need to happen but may not.
Like I said I think we are still out of the top 4 window . I think the list still needs work. We lack leadership depth and some marking power in front of the footy. There is still improvement needed in the team defense that I want to see before I believe . I think we are an 11 win side (plus or minus 1) if the list stays at 80% across the board.
The last two games do not worry me a lot. Yes they gave up against GWS which was one of the worst performances we have put up in 20 years and yes the Pies blew us away early but there where circumstances that did factor and being an average side with a lack of depth and leadership was one. Another was getting games into a few young players that where off the pace or in new positions. Then there was the coaching **** up in brining back unfit players in the GWS game. If you look at the form across the whole season they did 100% improve in some areas before they crashed of the cliff. Anyone who has had any exposure to any level coaching for a period of time will know that sometimes the really bad has reasons behind it. I would be more worried if those results came at various stages during the year.
You can be as negative as you want but you have not said we are going backwards and we have as many young guys as the next club who may or may not take a step up.
