Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

[Lore]

Quick links: Player Contract Status | Draft Watch 2023 | AFLW Draft, Trade & Sign

The embedded resources below are kept up to date by the trade board mods (as much as possible – we are human after all). Enjoy!

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[JayJ20]

Who says we would hesitate ?

I meant in the scenario that they won't chase JUH because of the money. That's why I said money is not going to be an issue as I don't believe Essendon would pass on him for money. Draft picks is the only thing I can see Essendon hesitate on and that's understandable.

I'm intrigued to see how the process of negotiation goes should he request a trade to Essendon without Dodoro as the Dogs will ask a lot.

 

[JayJ20]

I much as I would love JUF on our list it just sounds like a pipe dream. It’s like the Ben King talk all over again. I would love to see it happen but I don’t think it’s going to happen.

The only reason why I raised it is because he and his family are/were big Essendon fans and we have money to spend. Otherwise we'd have almost no chance.

I still believe he will stay at Bulldogs though.

 

[ant555]

I meant in the scenario that they won't chase JUH because of the money. That's why I said money is not going to be an issue as I don't believe Essendon would pass on him for money. Draft picks is the only thing I can see Essendon hesitate on and that's understandable.

I'm intrigued to see how the process of negotiation goes should he request a trade to Essendon without Dodoro as the Dogs will ask a lot.

Personally I think Scott will not do it as the message has been free agents and keep the top end draft picks.
JUH would be one of the missing parts but I am not sure we are at the stage where we stop using draft picks and jump back into big trades.
Lets face it we are at make or break for Reid / Cox / Perkins and all 3 are still 50/50 prospects .
If you listen to the messaging from Scott it has a subtle tone of long haul and no short cuts.

 

[Godzke]

Ill have a go at a basic offseason.

Retire: Heppell and Goldstein
Delist: Kelly and Wanganeen
Trade: Shiel to St Kilda for a future 2nd.
Trade: Guelfi to West Coast for #39
Free agent signing: Oleg Markov for 2 years.
Upgrade: Menzies
Re-sign: McGrath, Perkins, Durham (3 yrs), Cox, Davey Jr, Setterfield, Caldwell, Menzies (2 yrs) Baldwin, Hayes, Hind, Davey, Stringer, Jones, Hunter and Visantini (1 yr)

Draft: #8, #28 and #39
Rookie Draft: 2 Picks

With the above picks I would want 1 midfielder, 1 forward flanker, 1 forward/ruck and the other two picks can be used however.
Would love to pick Sam Lalor with our first pick.

If I did my maths right should leave us with 38 main and 4 rookies.

Good early attempt but wishful thinking if you think Shiel will yield a 2nd rounder. Isn't he out of contract? Assuming Saints even want him, they'll offer a 4th rounder or walk him to the PSD.

If we miss finals, we need to be within 1-2 games of the 8. Makes it a harder sell to land a FA big fish (not that Markov is a big fish, more a general comment for other potential targets).

Think we'll really struggle up forward this season. Haven't seen anything to suggest Wright is ready to fire. Langford will get more attention from opposition defenders. Stringer seems to thrive where there is no forward structure, which is to the detriment of the broader team. Menzie, Davey, Guelfi will be serviceable without being match winners. Jones tries hard but lacks footy IQ.

If i'm doing an early 2024 BnF Top 10 prediction, it would be this:
1. Merrett
2. Martin
3. Parish
4. Ridley
5. Gresham
6. McKay
7. Langford
8. Durham
9. Redman
10. Reid

Five are defenders, incl Martin, vs two forwards. Tells you where the ball will be spending the most time. We need to get bold chasing an elite forward in the offseason.

 

[ant555]

Good early attempt but wishful thinking if you think Shiel will yield a 2nd rounder. Isn't he out of contract? Assuming Saints even want him, they'll offer a 4th rounder or walk him to the PSD.

If we miss finals, we need to be within 1-2 games of the 8. Makes it a harder sell to land a FA big fish (not that Markov is a big fish, more a general comment for other potential targets).

Think we'll really struggle up forward this season. Haven't seen anything to suggest Wright is ready to fire. Langford will get more attention from opposition defenders. Stringer seems to thrive where there is no forward structure, which is to the detriment of the broader team. Menzie, Davey, Guelfi will be serviceable without being match winners. Jones tries hard but lacks footy IQ.

If i'm doing an early 2004 BnF Top 10 prediction, it would be this:
1. Merrett
2. Martin
3. Parish
4. Ridley
5. Gresham
6. McKay
7. Langford
8. Durham
9. Redman
10. Reid

Five are defenders, incl Martin, vs two forwards. Tells you where the ball will be spending the most time. We need to get bold chasing an elite forward in the offseason.

I suspect Shiel goes as a FA . No need for anyone to trade for him.

 

[Godzke]

I suspect Shiel goes as a FA . No need for anyone to trade for him.

well that was my first thought but footywire suggested he's not?

 

[eth-dog]

I suspect Shiel goes as a FA . No need for anyone to trade for him.

He's not a free agent

well that was my first thought but footywire suggested he's not?

View attachment 1924170

Don't forget the apparent secret contract extension that takes him to 2025

 

[Godzke]

He's not a free agent

Don't forget the apparent secret contract extension that takes him to 2025

ah - thought that was to take him from 2023 to 2024

 

[Vindicater]

Good early attempt but wishful thinking if you think Shiel will yield a 2nd rounder. Isn't he out of contract? Assuming Saints even want him, they'll offer a 4th rounder or walk him to the PSD.

If we miss finals, we need to be within 1-2 games of the 8. Makes it a harder sell to land a FA big fish (not that Markov is a big fish, more a general comment for other potential targets).

Think we'll really struggle up forward this season. Haven't seen anything to suggest Wright is ready to fire. Langford will get more attention from opposition defenders. Stringer seems to thrive where there is no forward structure, which is to the detriment of the broader team. Menzie, Davey, Guelfi will be serviceable without being match winners. Jones tries hard but lacks footy IQ.

If i'm doing an early 2004 BnF Top 10 prediction, it would be this:
1. Merrett
2. Martin
3. Parish
4. Ridley
5. Gresham
6. McKay
7. Langford
8. Durham
9. Redman
10. Reid

Five are defenders, incl Martin, vs two forwards. Tells you where the ball will be spending the most time. We need to get bold chasing an elite forward in the offseason.

Shiel will still be on the books so a late future second might get him.

 

[Duckworth]

Shiel will still be on the books so a late future second might get him.

Shiel has zero value.

 

[JayJ20]

Personally I think Scott will not do it as the message has been free agents and keep the top end draft picks.
JUH would be one of the missing parts but I am not sure we are at the stage where we stop using draft picks and jump back into big trades.
Lets face it we are at make or break for Reid / Cox / Perkins and all 3 are still 50/50 prospects .
If you listen to the messaging from Scott it has a subtle tone of long haul and no short cuts.

We'll know more about where the list stands at the end of the year.
The thing I'm concerned about is that we've been here many times. Draftees don't work out, so we need to hit the draft and eventually we'll always be one or two elite players away. It's a cruel cycle.

Brad Scott at North funnily enough had the exact same problem.

 

[Vindicater]

Shiel has zero value.

 

[ghostdog]

Personally I think Scott will not do it as the message has been free agents and keep the top end draft picks.
JUH would be one of the missing parts but I am not sure we are at the stage where we stop using draft picks and jump back into big trades.
Lets face it we are at make or break for Reid / Cox / Perkins and all 3 are still 50/50 prospects .
If you listen to the messaging from Scott it has a subtle tone of long haul and no short cuts.

Mmmm... the 8 year plan thing might put paid to any notion of pursuing JUH.

 

[ant555]

We'll know more about where the list stands at the end of the year.
The thing I'm concerned about is that we've been here many times. Draftees don't work out, so we need to hit the draft and eventually we'll always be one or two elite players away. It's a cruel cycle.

Brad Scott at North funnily enough had the exact same problem.

We have been here several times before and there are no guarantees for sure. I question if Scott will be the next premiership coach and who knows what the new recruiting / football department mix will come up with but it is what it is. We have to accept that it is another new start and we have to acknowledge that they have made a lot of major changes across the whole club to try a rectify it.
All Scott can do right now is start to build the platform.
What we do not need is any thinking that a few big trades and short cuts will get us to where we want to be. The way forward will be taking the early picks and picking off the Free Agents as they come around. Some will be short term to help for a period of time. Others will we bigger picture.
I know people like to dream and dreams are free but dreams do not build a list.

 

[Vindicater]

We should for sure be putting work into Tyson Stengel this year with the hope of nabbing him. Would fit us perfectly.

 

[jdstorm]

Mmmm... the 8 year plan thing might put paid to any notion of pursuing JUH.

JUH is early 20s and would fit that timeline.

I think the bigger issue is it would likely cost 3 FRPS and I’m not sure Essendon has the depth to absorb that type of trade.

Anyway it really depends how this season goes and how players develop. If Draper develops into a decent forward then Wright, Draper, Langford Perkins, Gresham + Small is actually a fairly good looking forward line. Especially with Caddy and Jones pushing for a spot.

There’s a chance the starting VFL forward line is Weid Jones Caddy Guelfi Tex Davey which is decent depth.

I suppose if Essendon have a mid first finish and could get a FRP for Wright* (Who Jamarra would replace in the best 22) then it starts to look more palatable. (Draper JUH Langford Perkins Gresham , SF) Would still need to find one more FRP but could potentially try and package multiple 2nds or do a salary dump type trade.

*2MP to Melbourne for minimum 1 first actually makes sense for both teams in this scenario.

If JUH wanted to come and the cost was

Out: 1 frp (say 8-12) Peter Wright, Dylan Sheil and say 2 2nds

In JUH and a 3rd

Would you do it

 

[HirdsTheWord]

JUH is early 20s and would fit that timeline.

I think the bigger issue is it would likely cost 3 FRPS and I’m not sure Essendon has the depth to absorb that type of trade.

Anyway it really depends how this season goes and how players develop. If Draper develops into a decent forward then Wright, Draper, Langford Perkins, Gresham + Small is actually a fairly good looking forward line. Especially with Caddy and Jones pushing for a spot.

There’s a chance the starting VFL forward line is Weid Jones Caddy Guelfi Tex Davey which is decent depth.

I suppose if Essendon have a mid first finish and could get a FRP for Wright* (Who Jamarra would replace in the best 22) then it starts to look more palatable. (Draper JUH Langford Perkins Gresham , SF) Would still need to find one more FRP but could potentially try and package multiple 2nds or do a salary dump type trade.

*2MP to Melbourne for minimum 1 first actually makes sense for both teams in this scenario.

If JUH wanted to come and the cost was

Out: 1 frp (say 8-12) Peter Wright, Dylan Sheil and say 2 2nds

In JUH and a 3rd

Would you do it

i sure as shit wouldn't.

 

[doug85]

I certainly hope we look closely at JUH.

We have zero superstars and he fills a need. Don’t think we’re likely to get a superstar KPF with a pair of pick tens in the next 2 drafts.

 

[ant555]

I certainly hope we look closely at JUH.

We have zero superstars and he fills a need. Don’t think we’re likely to get a superstar KPF with a pair of pick tens in the next 2 drafts.

Maybe . Maybe not. No guarantee for sure but Curnow was not top 5 and with pick trading it is a slightly different landscape.

 

[Yoda_]

Cadman is the one, similar trajectory to JUH, although a year or two less development. Did sign an extension but he is one that would fit us just as perfectly as JUH

 

[andleanback]

Cadman is the one, similar trajectory to JUH, although a year or two less development. Did sign an extension but he is one that would fit us just as perfectly as JUH

Cadman isn’t going anywhere for a few years

 

[JayJ20]

We have been here several times before and there are no guarantees for sure. I question if Scott will be the next premiership coach and who knows what the new recruiting / football department mix will come up with but it is what it is. We have to accept that it is another new start and we have to acknowledge that they have made a lot of major changes across the whole club to try a rectify it.
All Scott can do right now is start to build the platform.
What we do not need is any thinking that a few big trades and short cuts will get us to where we want to be. The way forward will be taking the early picks and picking off the Free Agents as they come around. Some will be short term to help for a period of time. Others will we bigger picture.
I know people like to dream and dreams are free but dreams do not build a list.

I agree with most things you say, but I don't agree that spending draft capital on a player like JUH is a shortcut. We're more advanced in our rebuild than Hawthorn and they're targeting JUH for a reason. They're not taking a shortcut by doing so and we wouldn't be either.

I believe it's a long term investment that we can afford. We can afford to sit this year's first round out and there'll always be opportunities to trade into the first round next year if we desperately want a player.

 

[ant555]

I agree with most things you say, but I don't agree that spending draft capital on a player like JUH is a shortcut. We're more advanced in our rebuild than Hawthorn and they're targeting JUH for a reason. They're not taking a shortcut by doing so and we wouldn't be either.

I believe it's a long term investment that we can afford. We can afford to sit this year's first round out and there'll always be opportunities to trade into the first round next year if we desperately want a player.

Or we can play the long game. I am not against trading for JUH but my view is it is a short cut . We would be sacrificing top end picks to get him. We actually do not know if we can sit out of the top end of the draft this year. Cox and Perkins need to prove they can actually play and Reid has to prove he can stay on the field. If these things happen then yes maybe we can sacrifice a draft this year but it is a long way from happening. Lets face it people want JUH so we can start winning next year.
I do not really consider us more advanced than the Hawks. List wise we have a few more left over from a previous era but culture wise we are not in the same ball park.

 

[jdstorm]

Or we can play the long game. I am not against trading for JUH but my view is it is a short cut . We would be sacrificing top end picks to get him. We actually do not know if we can sit out of the top end of the draft this year. Cox and Perkins need to prove they can actually play and Reid has to prove he can stay on the field. If these things happen then yes maybe we can sacrifice a draft this year but it is a long way from happening. Lets face it people want JUH so we can start winning next year.

JUH is 21 and looking like a sure thing AA player who will play 200 games

To get that outcome a pick later then 5 you’re looking at a 1 in 3 to 1 in 5 chance. So in some respect 3 picks in that range is actually a bargain for that type of player.

You pay for certainty of result.

Where it gets tricky is if you give away future picks and bottom out (top 5 picks have a better chance at that outcome) and it robs your team of useful depth as those picks typically at worst turn into decent afl players.

Because of this you need to have real depth on your list to absorb the cost of consolidating talent. However if you have that depth it’s often the right thing to do.

It’s not just about winning if the opportunity presents itself you’d be mad not to take it

 

[ant555]

JUH is 21 and looking like a sure thing AA player who will play 200 games

To get that outcome a pick later then 5 you’re looking at a 1 in 3 to 1 in 5 chance. So in some respect 3 picks in that range is actually a bargain for that type of player.

You pay for certainty of result.

Where it gets tricky is if you give away future picks and bottom out (top 5 picks have a better chance at that outcome) and it robs your team of useful depth as those picks typically at worst turn into decent afl players.

Because of this you need to have real depth on your list to absorb the cost of consolidating talent. However if you have that depth it’s often the right thing to do.

It’s not just about winning if the opportunity presents itself you’d be mad not to take it

There have been as many top 5 KPF fail as there have been a success in recent years so I would argue that 5 to 15 can be just as productive. Secondly you do not actually have to have a super star KPF to win a flag. A bunch of good ones can do the job as well.
How many premiership sides have built the list early on by trading away top end draft picks ? It has been more when they have the core and are actually set for the next step.
As for 3 picks for a player being a bargain in general terms it all depends on how good the draft is and how good your recruiting team is along with what other clubs are doing.
As I have said I am not against it but it all comes down to a question we can not answer now. That question is can the blokes we are pinning our hopes on take the next step and become good players. Given that number is 10 or 12 players you can not actually say with any clarity it is a good idea.