Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[citizen-erased]

JUH is the real deal. All in. The forwardline is by far the worst part of the ground and he'd improve it so much.

Anymore small forwards that are FA?

Caddy, jamarra and Langer's clunking everything that goes down there.
Who needs smalls

Reckon we see what the year brings with the 4-5 we have and assess.

 

[Yoda_]

JUH is the real deal. All in. The forwardline is by far the worst part of the ground and he'd improve it so much.

Anymore small forwards that are FA?

extort the bludgeoning Dogs salary cap and we could get a bargain if he ends up the boom he's now tracking to become.

 

[ghostdog]

JUH is the real deal. All in. The forwardline is by far the worst part of the ground and he'd improve it so much.

Anymore small forwards that are FA?

Tyson Stengle.
Wouldn't surprise me if we ask Cam Zurhaar.

 

[andleanback]

JUH is the real deal. All in. The forwardline is by far the worst part of the ground and he'd improve it so much.

Anymore small forwards that are FA?

I’d be just using a pick to draft our nga kako he’s exactly what we need

 

[JayJ20]

I’d be just using a pick to draft our nga kako he’s exactly what we need

Yeah he certainly is, but a premiere forward like JUH is much harder to come by. If the option of JUH is there, then I'd trade for him without a second thought and either attempt to trade in a first through player movement or chase after him as soon as he is OOC.

 

[andleanback]

Yeah he certainly is, but a premiere forward like JUH is much harder to come by. If the option of JUH is there, then I'd trade for him without a second thought and either attempt to trade in a first through player movement or chase after him as soon as he is OOC.

We’d need to trade for more picks to get JUH, the dogs would want a haul

 

[JayJ20]

We’d need to trade for more picks to get JUH, the dogs would want a haul

They do, but he is OOC so the best they can hope for is two firsts and a second (with our expected bottom 6 finish). Even that is probably the final offer.

 

[andleanback]

They do, but he is OOC so the best they can hope for is two firsts and a second (with our expected bottom 6 finish). Even that is probably the final offer.

I don’t think we’ve got a expected bottom 6 finish. Regardless he’s a talent no1 key forward out of contract, it’ll be a kings ransom offer required.

 

[JayJ20]

I don’t think we’ve got a expected bottom 6 finish. Regardless he’s a talent no1 key forward out of contract, it’ll be a kings ransom offer required.

It's more so what I think will happen.

Whatever the cost will be in picks is worth it if he continues his current trajectory because our list is devoid of genuine A-grade, top of the league talent that wins premierships. All of the recent premiers had those players. We're building a good base, but missing genuine elite talent capable of taking that extra step. Game changers like Buddy, Dusty, Petracca, Bont, Daicos, Curnow, Toby Greene etc.

JUH is very much that dynamic player that can turn a game on its head and he's proven it at AFL level.

Bank that player now and continue to develop the players.

 

[Old Campaigner]

It's more so what I think will happen.

Whatever the cost will be in picks is worth it if he continues his current trajectory because our list is devoid of genuine A-grade, top of the league talent that wins premierships. All of the recent premiers had those players. We're building a good base, but missing genuine elite talent capable of taking that extra step. Game changers like Buddy, Dusty, Petracca, Bont, Daicos, Curnow, Toby Greene etc.

JUH is very much that dynamic player that can turn a game on its head and he's proven it at AFL level.

Bank that player now and continue to develop the players.

I don't think now is the time in our development to be spending vast amounts of draft capital chasing superstars. We lack quality in a number of positions and still lack depth - those are aspects that are really only able to be addressed through the draft using good picks.

If we were to trade for someone of JUH's caliber right now I think we'd end up with the icing but not enough cake underneath.

Also I don't think there's any need to go hard at trade targets this particular year, gun KPFs are out of contract every other year so it's not like this is our one and only chance.

 

[ghostdog]

I don't think now is the time in our development to be spending vast amounts of draft capital chasing superstars. We lack quality in a number of positions and still lack depth - those are aspects that are really only able to be addressed through the draft using good picks.

If we were to trade for someone of JUH's caliber right now I think we'd end up with the icing but not enough cake underneath.

Also I don't think there's any need to go hard at trade targets this particular year, gun KPFs are out of contract every other year so it's not like this is our one and only chance.

I disagree. They don't grow on trees and JUH is possible. As well, the way we approached free agency this year shows we can address those aspects without losing too much.

Who are the gun KPFs out of contract in 25 and 26?

I do see your point though. I think we need;
2 gun smalls, one forward and one back
Jury's out on Durham as a bigger inside mid and Duursma on a wing (I previously thought we needed back up for Setterfield)
Superstar mid
Superstar KF
Stringer replacement

I just think KPF is the hardest of those to fill. JUH is only 21. We'd still be able to fill those spots in subsequent years and see the best of him.

We have approached Zurhaar before so it wouldnt surprise if we tried again to replace Stringer.

 

[JayJ20]

I don't think now is the time in our development to be spending vast amounts of draft capital chasing superstars. We lack quality in a number of positions and still lack depth - those are aspects that are really only able to be addressed through the draft using good picks.

If we were to trade for someone of JUH's caliber right now I think we'd end up with the icing but not enough cake underneath.

Also I don't think there's any need to go hard at trade targets this particular year, gun KPFs are out of contract every other year so it's not like this is our one and only chance.

I don't agree with that. JUH is not the icing. He is a young KPF. Not only is a good KPF very difficult to find, but one that actually translated his game to AFL level is even more difficult. Think Schache, Weideman, Patton, Boyd (who struggled other than the Grand final), Watts etc. He also complements Wright, Langford and eventually Caddy too.

Banking on KPFs coming out of contract is too risky as we've been told Ben King would come to Victoria by now and he is still committed to Gold Coast. Plus there are far more successful teams in the market for a KPF and we'd lose out.

We have an OOC indigenous KPF who grew up an Essendon supporter in an Essendon supporting family who happens to be one of the most dynamic and exciting young talent in the league. Even from a marketing perspective, he can easily be the next marquee player. Essendon vs Richmond is also the centrepiece game of indigenous round. If there was any KPF we could attract, it's him.

We've gone to the draft 4 years in a row and currently have the most top 10 picks (or first rounders) on our list in the league. Yet some of our best young talent in Martin and Durham were SSP and mid-season draft selections. Gold Coast, North and GWS are stocked with young elite talent and we need to be able to compete with them or a premiership won't happen.

JUH to me is a no brainer.

 

[JayJ20]

I disagree. They don't grow on trees and JUH is possible. As well, the way we approached free agency this year shows we can address those aspects without losing too much.

Who are the gun KPFs out of contract in 25 and 26?

I do see your point though. I think we need;
2 gun smalls, one forward and one back
Jury's out on Durham as a bigger inside mid and Duursma on a wing (I previously thought we needed back up for Setterfield)
Superstar mid
Superstar KF
Stringer replacement

I just think KPF is the hardest of those to fill. JUH is only 21. We'd still be able to fill those spots in subsequent years and see the best of him.

We have approached Zurhaar before so it wouldnt surprise if we tried again to replace Stringer.

There are plenty of ways to increase depth. There aren't plenty of ways to obtain an elite young KPF though.

Going through your list:

2 gun smalls, one forward and one back - Both can be found later in the draft or even the rookie draft.
Jury's out on Durham as a bigger inside mid and Duursma on a wing (I previously thought we needed back up for Setterfield) - A Setterfield back up or defensive big-bodied inside mid can be found through FA or later in the draft.
Superstar mid - We've drafted mids over the last couple of years and with this year's mids being on the smaller end, I we don't need to draft another undersized mid. Allow the mids like Hobbs, Tsatas and Durham to develop for a couple of years and see where it goes. Target FA to increase midfield depth.
Superstar KF - Very hard to find. If one is available, then it'll be very competitive. Do everything to get JUH.
Stringer replacement - You'd hope Perkins is exactly this. Although Zurhaar is a possible option.

From the list, a KPF is difficult to find especially one that complements our forwardline like JUH.

 

[ghostdog]

There are plenty of ways to increase depth. There aren't plenty of ways to obtain an elite young KPF though.

Going through your list:

2 gun smalls, one forward and one back - Both can be found later in the draft or even the rookie draft.
Jury's out on Durham as a bigger inside mid and Duursma on a wing (I previously thought we needed back up for Setterfield) - A Setterfield back up or defensive big-bodied inside mid can be found through FA or later in the draft.
Superstar mid - We've drafted mids over the last couple of years and with this year's mids being on the smaller end, I we don't need to draft another undersized mid. Allow the mids like Hobbs, Tsatas and Durham to develop for a couple of years and see where it goes. Target FA to increase midfield depth.
Superstar KF - Very hard to find. If one is available, then it'll be very competitive. Do everything to get JUH.
Stringer replacement - You'd hope Perkins is exactly this. Although Zurhaar is a possible option.

From the list, a KPF is difficult to find especially one that complements our forwardline like JUH.

Yes. 100% agree.

 

[ghostdog]

I’d be just using a pick to draft our nga kako he’s exactly what we need

Around what pick is Kako expected to go at?

 

[andleanback]

Around what pick is Kako expected to go at?

Small forwards are hard to say as one club can really fall in love with their game and take them higher than expected, as seen with gothard last year. I’d say 20-40 atm for kako though. If he has a good year he’ll push right into the top 20

 

[Old Campaigner]

There are plenty of ways to increase depth. There aren't plenty of ways to obtain an elite young KPF though.

Going through your list:

2 gun smalls, one forward and one back - Both can be found later in the draft or even the rookie draft.
Jury's out on Durham as a bigger inside mid and Duursma on a wing (I previously thought we needed back up for Setterfield) - A Setterfield back up or defensive big-bodied inside mid can be found through FA or later in the draft.
Superstar mid - We've drafted mids over the last couple of years and with this year's mids being on the smaller end, I we don't need to draft another undersized mid. Allow the mids like Hobbs, Tsatas and Durham to develop for a couple of years and see where it goes. Target FA to increase midfield depth.
Superstar KF - Very hard to find. If one is available, then it'll be very competitive. Do everything to get JUH.
Stringer replacement - You'd hope Perkins is exactly this. Although Zurhaar is a possible option.

From the list, a KPF is difficult to find especially one that complements our forwardline like JUH.

Ehhh, I’d suggest our shortcomings are a little more extensive than that. I’d also suggest that statistically the odds of addressing those are going to be extremely difficult without hitting up the first round of the draft. You can find warm bodies at the arse end of the draft or via FA without much difficulty but a regular best 22 player is much harder.

And to be clear I am not claiming JUH wouldn’t improve us, just that the price we’d have to pay would make other necessary improvements to the list much harder

 

[ghostdog]

Ehhh, I’d suggest our shortcomings are a little more extensive than that. I’d also suggest that statistically the odds of addressing those are going to be extremely difficult without hitting up the first round of the draft. You can find warm bodies at the arse end of the draft or via FA without much difficulty but a regular best 22 player is much harder.

And to be clear I am not claiming JUH wouldn’t improve us, just that the price we’d have to pay would make other necessary improvements to the list much harder

I reckon those other improvements would be later rather than harder.

 

[citizen-erased]

I look at brisbane

They had hit a few drafts from 2015 to 17
Then started trading hard for established guns

Neale was 2x 1sts (including a top 6 pick)
Cameron
Daniher
Dunkley

You can't just hit drafts
Dees were the same in pursuing may, lever, trading up to Oliver.

If Reid/McKay stabilise the back, and we see caddy and tsatas shine a bit this year, id 100% be looking to trade in proven guns vs draft gambits and waiting

 

[andleanback]

I look at brisbane

They had hit a few drafts from 2015 to 17
Then started trading hard for established guns

Neale was 2x 1sts (including a top 6 pick)
Cameron
Daniher
Dunkley

You can't just hit drafts
Dees were the same in pursuing may, lever, trading up to Oliver.

If Reid/McKay stabilise the back, and we see caddy and tsatas shine a bit this year, id 100% be looking to trade in proven guns vs draft gambits and waiting

It’s just about trading for the right player and at the right prices. You don’t want to get into trading multiple 1sts for players who are just going to be B grade players (shiel for us), that’s when it hurts you.
Neale has well and truely justified his cost - 2 brownlows
Cameron - they got for massive unders
Daniher - free agent
Dunkley - late first round picks - while knowing they were getting Ashcroft
At the same time they’ve hit on a lot of their early draft picks. It’s the model of how to take a rock bottom club/ list and rebuild it

 

[citizen-erased]

It’s just about trading for the right player and at the right prices. You don’t want to get into trading multiple 1sts for players who are just going to be B grade players (shiel for us), that’s when it hurts you.
Neale has well and truely justified his cost - 2 brownlows
Cameron - they got for massive unders
Daniher - free agent
Dunkley - late first round picks - while knowing they were getting Ashcroft
At the same time they’ve hit on a lot of their early draft picks. It’s the model of how to take a rock bottom club/ list and rebuild it

Rayner, clug and bailey have been good and helped by having a freakishly good father son.

But the rest of their drafting has largely been role players in berry, dev and co, or unsighted.

I'm yet to see a draft heavy strategy equate to a GF or flag.

 

[andleanback]

Rayner, clug and bailey have been good and helped by having a freakishly good father son.

But the rest of their drafting has largely been role players in berry, dev and co, or unsighted.

I'm yet to see a draft heavy strategy equate to a GF or flag.

They haven’t been a draft heavy strategy? Any draft heavy strategy then moves into trading for missing pieces once you are in the window
Same with Richmond (nank, caddy, prestia, lynch)
And hawthorn
(Lake, Mcevoy, frawley)
They traded for the right players and drafted well. A lot of the guys you mentioned are role players for them, while in other systems they would get freedom to be ball hunting mids. But sometimes in good teams good players have to sacrifice their own games for the benefit on the team.

 

[citizen-erased]

They haven’t been a draft heavy strategy? Any draft heavy strategy then moves into trading for missing pieces once you are in the window
Same with Richmond (nank, caddy, prestia, lynch)
And hawthorn
(Lake, Mcevoy, frawley)
They traded for the right players and drafted well. A lot of the guys you mentioned are role players for them, while in other systems they would get freedom to be ball hunting mids. But sometimes in good teams good players have to sacrifice their own games for the benefit on the team.

I'd say not to the point that wanted to see development & be a finals team before they chased guns.

Prestia was a pick 6
Neale was 6 and 19
May was 5...i can't remember Lever, but it was a bit of a haul.

It's certainly not guaranteed, but recent history points to not waiting before you start paying for quality in needful spots.

We've drafted heavy for a few years now
Hobbs, Tsatas, Perkins, Cox, Reid, Caddy are sharp picks, plus wins with Martin, Ridley, etc as later picks looking quality.

 

[andleanback]

I'd say not to the point that wanted to see development & be a finals team before they chased guns.

Prestia was a pick 6
Neale was 6 and 19
May was 5...i can't remember Lever, but it was a bit of a haul.

It's certainly not guaranteed, but recent history points to not waiting before you start paying for quality in needful spots.

We've drafted heavy for a few years now
Hobbs, Tsatas, Perkins, Cox, Reid, Caddy are sharp picks, plus wins with Martin, Ridley, etc as later picks looking quality.

We haven’t drafted heavy at all, other than 2020. Taking your 1st round pick to the draft every year isn’t drafting heavy. Most of the time we haven’t even had our 2nd round pick, hence why a lot of our 3rd and 4th round picks that we’ve taken have since been delisted.

 

[Old Campaigner]

I'd say not to the point that wanted to see development & be a finals team before they chased guns.

Prestia was a pick 6
Neale was 6 and 19
May was 5...i can't remember Lever, but it was a bit of a haul.

It's certainly not guaranteed, but recent history points to not waiting before you start paying for quality in needful spots.

We've drafted heavy for a few years now
Hobbs, Tsatas, Perkins, Cox, Reid, Caddy are sharp picks, plus wins with Martin, Ridley, etc as later picks looking quality.

As mentioned above we haven't really drafted heavy, and I'd argue we haven't really drafted well either given the 2020 picks in particular haven't really come on as anyone would have liked. It's not just about how many picks you take to the draft, the results you get from them matter too.

I don't really think any club has gone onto great things without laying a really solid foundation via the draft first, and then using trades/FA to fill the gaps where draftees have not come on as well as expected.

The issue I have with us spending big on a trade now isn't a blanket opposition to trading in players, it's my belief that we don't yet have a solid foundation to build upon. We have been a bottom half side for years and there's every indication we'll be there for at least one or two more years. I think pulling the trigger too soon on costly trades very much risks repeating the mistakes of 2017-2018 where we traded out three years of picks for zero long term benefit.