Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

[Lore]

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[citizen-erased]

We haven’t drafted heavy at all, other than 2020. Taking your 1st round pick to the draft every year isn’t drafting heavy. Most of the time we haven’t even had our 2nd round pick, hence why a lot of our 3rd and 4th round picks that we’ve taken have since been delisted.

As mentioned above we haven't really drafted heavy, and I'd argue we haven't really drafted well either given the 2020 picks in particular haven't really come on as anyone would have liked. It's not just about how many picks you take to the draft, the results you get from them matter too.

I don't really think any club has gone onto great things without laying a really solid foundation via the draft first, and then using trades/FA to fill the gaps where draftees have not come on as well as expected.

The issue I have with us spending big on a trade now isn't a blanket opposition to trading in players, it's my belief that we don't yet have a solid foundation to build upon. We have been a bottom half side for years and there's every indication we'll be there for at least one or two more years. I think pulling the trigger too soon on costly trades very much risks repeating the mistakes of 2017-2018 where we traded out three years of picks for zero long term benefit.

Agree but did caveat that if we see tsatas and Reid cement their roles, then I reckon we're in ok position
Cox and Perkins aside.
Tsatas, Hobbs, Martin, Durham, Caldwell, duursma give us a bit to work with alongside 2 AA mids in Merrett and parish, plus a couple of mature bigger bodies with setterfield and stronger.

The other deficiencies in the list I think can be made up for if you get caddy living up to promise and pair that up with jamarra, alongside Langford, wright and gresham

We have a good clearance game and a decent backline.
Biggest gap I see, now and for the last 15 years really, is a decent pair of KPFs.

 

[P Money]

We haven’t drafted heavy at all, other than 2020. Taking your 1st round pick to the draft every year isn’t drafting heavy. Most of the time we haven’t even had our 2nd round pick, hence why a lot of our 3rd and 4th round picks that we’ve taken have since been delisted.

I'm sure I heard on recent commentary that Essendon have the most top 10 picks of any team in the league. I can think of a couple of 'former' top 10s that we've brought in cheap (Setterfield & Weideman) but surely that's a pretty good indicator of a 'drafting heavy'

 

[eth-dog]

I'm sure I heard on recent commentary that Essendon have the most top 10 picks of any team in the league. I can think of a couple of 'former' top 10s that we've brought in cheap (Setterfield & Weideman) but surely that's a pretty good indicator of a 'drafting heavy'

Stringer and Wright too.

Then you have Heppell, Cox, McGrath, Parish, Reid, Perkins, Tsatas and Caddy.

We have roughly 30% of our list come from other clubs. Similar to Collingwood and Brisbane. Not overly draft heavy.

 

[andleanback]

I'm sure I heard on recent commentary that Essendon have the most top 10 picks of any team in the league. I can think of a couple of 'former' top 10s that we've brought in cheap (Setterfield & Weideman) but surely that's a pretty good indicator of a 'drafting heavy'

Just because you’ve got a heavy amount of former top 10s on your list doesn’t mean you have been heavily drafting.
Wright stringer setterfield and Weideman have all been brought in through trade. Most for peanuts value after failing at former clubs.

 

[Old Campaigner]

I'm sure I heard on recent commentary that Essendon have the most top 10 picks of any team in the league. I can think of a couple of 'former' top 10s that we've brought in cheap (Setterfield & Weideman) but surely that's a pretty good indicator of a 'drafting heavy'

Which is why drafting well is just as important. You’ve gotta actually be getting results with all your picks which to date has not happened.

I’d be far more comfortable with the club adopting a ‘sell the farm for a gun’ strategy if we could demonstrate we actually had a platform for said gun to build upon.

 

[citizen-erased]

Which is why drafting well is just as important. You’ve gotta actually be getting results with all your picks which to date has not happened.

I’d be far more comfortable with the club adopting a ‘sell the farm for a gun’ strategy if we could demonstrate we actually had a platform for said gun to build upon.

Perhaps this supports the notion of go after the guns with our picks if we aren't capable of recruiting/developing the stars

 

[JayJ20]

Ehhh, I’d suggest our shortcomings are a little more extensive than that. I’d also suggest that statistically the odds of addressing those are going to be extremely difficult without hitting up the first round of the draft. You can find warm bodies at the arse end of the draft or via FA without much difficulty but a regular best 22 player is much harder.

And to be clear I am not claiming JUH wouldn’t improve us, just that the price we’d have to pay would make other necessary improvements to the list much harder

That's fair enough but I think we need to be a little bolder with our list strategy.

Other than Shiel, we've been incredibly conservative since a little before the saga and it has gotten us nowhere.
We don't have a bottom 2 list so it is unlikely that we finish in the bottom 2 to draft an elite KPF (that may or may not translate his game to AFL). We're not an attractive destination for top tier players at the moment given our lack of success and marquee players.

If Essendon isn't chasing JUH and willing to pay up given all the factors that are in our favour, then I think it's bad list management. It's just more of the same thing that got us here to begin with. Filling the side with ok players that don't have the capacity to turn the game around like a Dusty can.

In any given draft, there aren't many players that become elite and elite players win premierships. Draft picks are expendable for the right player and JUH ticks all the boxes.

Which is why drafting well is just as important. You’ve gotta actually be getting results with all your picks which to date has not happened.

I’d be far more comfortable with the club adopting a ‘sell the farm for a gun’ strategy if we could demonstrate we actually had a platform for said gun to build upon.

I am all for drafting heavy if we bottom out and do it properly, But we never do it so I'm all for trading for players you'll only find in the top 3. The generational players like Dusty, Judd, Buddy etc that you just don't draft finishing mid-table like we do.

 

[cAsEy_18]

I think we should aim to get as many good players as we can

 

[citizen-erased]

That's fair enough but I think we need to be a little bolder with our list strategy.

Other than Shiel, we've been incredibly conservative since a little before the saga and it has gotten us nowhere.
We don't have a bottom 2 list so it is unlikely that we finish in the bottom 2 to draft an elite KPF (that may or may not translate his game to AFL). We're not an attractive destination for top tier players at the moment given our lack of success and marquee players.

If Essendon isn't chasing JUH and willing to pay up given all the factors that are in our favour, then I think it's bad list management. It's just more of the same thing that got us here to begin with. Filling the side with ok players that don't have the capacity to turn the game around like a Dusty can.

In any given draft, there aren't many players that become elite and elite players win premierships. Draft picks are expendable for the right player and JUH ticks all the boxes.

I am all for drafting heavy if we bottom out and do it properly, But we never do it so I'm all for trading for players you'll only find in the top 3. The generational players like Dusty, Judd, Buddy etc that you just don't draft finishing mid-table like we do.

I wonder if the Shiel deal has made us gun shy.
He was a gun that we paid up for, but probably wasn't the one we needed considering Merrett, Parish and McGrath investments from the draft
A cheaper option in setterfield would have been a wiser move, but in the end we didn't miss much.

I'd add as well. Our 2 AA mids are in their peak. The window of opportunity is now to do what we can.

i don't know where our cap is at, but JUH via a trade + 2x FA's in English and Ainsworth catapults us imo.
I'd also look at how much a Davies trade would be, but not as high a priority

Ridley - McKay - McGrath
Martin - Reid - Redman
Durham - Setterfield - Duursma
Langford - JUH - Ainsworth
Gresham - Wright - Caddy
English - Merrett - Parish
Draper - Hobbs - Tsatas - Perkins
Cox
E: Caldwell, Jones, Hayes, Menzie
Stringer, Shiel, etc = mature depth

Bold = recruited from other clubs
Italics = top 20ish picks
Underline = later pick hits

decent enough balance.

 

[Old Campaigner]

I wonder if the Shiel deal has made us gun shy.
He was a gun that we paid up for, but probably wasn't the one we needed considering Merrett, Parish and McGrath investments from the draft
A cheaper option in setterfield would have been a wiser move, but in the end we didn't miss much.

I'd add as well. Our 2 AA mids are in their peak. The window of opportunity is now to do what we can.

i don't know where our cap is at, but JUH via a trade + 2x FA's in English and Ainsworth catapults us imo.
I'd also look at how much a Davies trade would be, but not as high a priority

Ridley - McKay - McGrath
Martin - Reid - Redman
Durham - Setterfield - Duursma
Langford - JUH - Ainsworth
Gresham - Wright - Caddy
English - Merrett - Parish
Draper - Hobbs - Tsatas - Perkins
Cox
E: Caldwell, Jones, Hayes, Menzie
Stringer, Shiel, etc = mature depth

Bold = recruited from other clubs
Italics = top 20ish picks
Underline = later pick hits

decent enough balance.

Are English and Ainsworth unrestricted free agents? If clubs are able to force trades for those two they absolutely would.

 

[Milanista28]

I think we should aim to get as many good players as we can

We have plenty of good players, we need better best players.

 

[Resistor]

We have plenty of good players, we need better best players.

I think we need a good style (of course), but more importantly total and complete buy in from the players. In other words culture.
Of course better players help no doubt, but there are still some fairly average players who win premierships every year.

Its like the Jackjumpers in their first season or even the Hawks in the NBL this year if you have watched that. Yes 5 basketball players is easier to to align than 18 footy players, I get that. But these teams were quite rightly written off. They had no chance. But they turned it around on their culture and desire to perform.

I haven't seen that in a while with Essendon. I think we are moving towards that, but not quite there yet. I still don't know whether they have 100% bought in. Do Gresham and Menzie (for example) want to push back towards goal on a turnover like Schultz, Hill, Elliot and Mihocek do?

 

[ghostdog]

I wonder if the Shiel deal has made us gun shy.
He was a gun that we paid up for, but probably wasn't the one we needed considering Merrett, Parish and McGrath investments from the draft
A cheaper option in setterfield would have been a wiser move, but in the end we didn't miss much.

I'd add as well. Our 2 AA mids are in their peak. The window of opportunity is now to do what we can.

i don't know where our cap is at, but JUH via a trade + 2x FA's in English and Ainsworth catapults us imo.
I'd also look at how much a Davies trade would be, but not as high a priority

Ridley - McKay - McGrath
Martin - Reid - Redman
Durham - Setterfield - Duursma
Langford - JUH - Ainsworth
Gresham - Wright - Caddy
English - Merrett - Parish
Draper - Hobbs - Tsatas - Perkins
Cox
E: Caldwell, Jones, Hayes, Menzie
Stringer, Shiel, etc = mature depth

Bold = recruited from other clubs
Italics = top 20ish picks
Underline = later pick hits

decent enough balance.

I'd prioritise JUH for sure.
Failing that, Alex Davies would be a great pick up looking at a Setterfield back up with upside for development given his young age. Some gun traits.

 

[Corleone]

They do, but he is OOC so the best they can hope for is two firsts and a second (with our expected bottom 6 finish). Even that is probably the final offer.

Or, finish dead last this year and walk him through the preseason draft

 

[citizen-erased]

Are English and Ainsworth unrestricted free agents? If clubs are able to force trades for those two they absolutely would.

Both RFA
gcs would be giving up a decent top 10 pick.
The theory on english is the dogs wouldnt match because of the $$. But not exactly full proof I guess

Jamarra and ainsworth would be my priorities...

 

[andleanback]

Both RFA
gcs would be giving up a decent top 10 pick.
The theory on english is the dogs wouldnt match because of the $$. But not exactly full proof I guess

Jamarra and ainsworth would be my priorities...

Be interesting to see what happens with English. A few clubs are going to shake the tree with jamarra and push his price up. If they want all 4 they could have 4 players on big big money.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

I'd prioritise JUH for sure.
Failing that, Alex Davies would be a great pick up looking at a Setterfield back up with upside for development given his young age. Some gun traits.

60% our list doesn't even live up to their current contract worth.

Do we really need to chase another "could be" player like JUH?

I dont see it, not at what it's going to take get get him out of the dogs.

Unless he has some type of amazing 2024 - dont see it.

 

[Vindicater]

Ill have a go at a basic offseason.

Retire: Heppell and Goldstein
Delist: Kelly and Wanganeen
Trade: Shiel to St Kilda for a future 2nd.
Trade: Guelfi to West Coast for #39
Free agent signing: Oleg Markov for 2 years.
Upgrade: Menzies
Re-sign: McGrath, Perkins, Durham (3 yrs), Cox, Davey Jr, Setterfield, Caldwell, Menzies (2 yrs) Baldwin, Hayes, Hind, Davey, Stringer, Jones, Hunter and Visantini (1 yr)

Draft: #8, #28 and #39
Rookie Draft: 2 Picks

With the above picks I would want 1 midfielder, 1 forward flanker, 1 forward/ruck and the other two picks can be used however.
Would love to pick Sam Lalor with our first pick.

If I did my maths right should leave us with 38 main and 4 rookies.

 

[jdstorm]

With the off-season I really think it depends on how the team peforms.

if they have a bottom 6 finish then trying to trade older players for high draft picks(beg for compo) makes sense.

If they go well it will be about topping up list holes and finding an extra impact player.

 

[Nifft]

Ill have a go at a basic offseason.

Retire: Heppell and Goldstein
Delist: Kelly and Wanganeen
Trade: Shiel to St Kilda for a future 2nd.
Trade: Guelfi to West Coast for #39
Free agent signing: Oleg Markov for 2 years.
Upgrade: Menzies
Re-sign: McGrath, Perkins, Durham (3 yrs), Cox, Davey Jr, Setterfield, Caldwell, Menzies (2 yrs) Baldwin, Hayes, Hind, Davey, Stringer, Jones, Hunter and Visantini (1 yr)

Draft: #8, #28 and #39
Rookie Draft: 2 Picks

With the above picks I would want 1 midfielder, 1 forward flanker, 1 forward/ruck and the other two picks can be used however.
Would love to pick Sam Lalor with our first pick.

If I did my maths right should leave us with 38 main and 4 rookies.

I like the way you think... skip the regular season and go straight to the off season where we always win.

 

[JayJ20]

60% our list doesn't even live up to their current contract worth.

Do we really need to chase another "could be" player like JUH?

I dont see it, not at what it's going to take get get him out of the dogs.

Unless he has some type of amazing 2024 - dont see it.

I think JUH has proven himself in 2023 and I wouldn't classify him as a "could be" player. JUH is currently tracking ahead of Curnow at the same stage of their careers.

A 21-year old mobile and athletic key forward that knows how to lead, has a big leap, can kick goals from anywhere, takes big grabs. Watching Curnow single-handedly turn the game around last night makes me double-down on my position to chase JUH. Talent like JUH doesn't come by very often and we have many things in our favour over potential suitors so we need to take the opportunity.

This is a priority because we won't win a premiership without elite talent. I'm going to assume we don't finish bottom 4 the next couple of years which makes it tough to draft elite key forwards. Obviously this is assuming JUH continues his trajectory and builds on last year.

Our side desperately needs a player like this:


With Hawthorn aggressively chasing him already, we're going to shoot ourselves in the foot letting a talent like that go to a rebuilding team we'll likely contend with.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

I think JUH has proven himself in 2023 and I wouldn't classify him as a "could be" player. JUH is currently tracking ahead of Curnow at the same stage of their careers.

A 21-year old mobile and athletic key forward that knows how to lead, has a big leap, can kick goals from anywhere, takes big grabs. Watching Curnow single-handedly turn the game around last night makes me double-down on my position to chase JUH. Talent like JUH doesn't come by very often and we have many things in our favour over potential suitors so we need to take the opportunity.

This is a priority because we won't win a premiership without elite talent. I'm going to assume we don't finish bottom 4 the next couple of years which makes it tough to draft elite key forwards. Obviously this is assuming JUH continues his trajectory and builds on last year.

Our side desperately needs a player like this:


With Hawthorn aggressively chasing him already, we're going to shoot ourselves in the foot letting a talent like that go to a rebuilding team we'll likely contend with.

To be on a million bucks as year? Which is what the dogs will likely offer?

No, he has not proven that IMO.

Neither has McKay though so wtf do i know.

 

[JayJ20]

To be on a million bucks as year? Which is what the dogs will likely offer?

No, he has not proven that IMO.

Neither has McKay though so wtf do i know.

There's a reason Dogs and Hawthorn will offer that because his talent warrants it. Sydney and Collingwood will also probably chase him hard. And these clubs are far more successful than Essendon.

Like you said, we're happy to pay nearly a million to McKay who is nothing special, but hesitate to pay that to a 21-year old key forward that fills a huge need?

The money is not going to be an issue. The only thing that would make Essendon hesitate is draft picks but I think that won't be an issue either.

I'm assuming Tasmania is going to raid the draft like GWS and Gold Coast did so we can't afford to draft busts or average players, which is more likely than not. We need elite talent to compete with the next generation of players like JUH, JHF, Gulden, Daicos, Tom Green, Harley Reid, Anderson, Rowell, Callaghan and whoever else emerges.

Nic Martin, Draper and Zach Reid is a good start but we need more in all areas of the ground.

 

[ant555]

There's a reason Dogs and Hawthorn will offer that because his talent warrants it. Sydney and Collingwood will also probably chase him hard. And these clubs are far more successful than Essendon.

Like you said, we're happy to pay nearly a million to McKay who is nothing special, but hesitate to pay that to a 21-year old key forward that fills a huge need?

The money is not going to be an issue. The only thing that would make Essendon hesitate is draft picks but I think that won't be an issue either.

I'm assuming Tasmania is going to raid the draft like GWS and Gold Coast did so we can't afford to draft busts or average players, which is more likely than not. We need elite talent to compete with the next generation of players like JUH, JHF, Gulden, Daicos, Tom Green, Harley Reid, Anderson, Rowell, Callaghan and whoever else emerges.

Nic Martin, Draper and Zach Reid is a good start but we need more in all areas of the ground.

Who says we would hesitate ?

 

[Happyskeret]

I much as I would love JUF on our list it just sounds like a pipe dream. It’s like the Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

24

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

talk all over again. I would love to see it happen but I don’t think it’s going to happen.