Review Good/Bad vs Geelong

[Mr_Moogle]

I think Pedlar's inaccuracy in front of goal is starting to get annoying but that's not seeing the forest through the trees. He's not a forward, he's a midfielder. It was especially stupid to play him on an intercepting defender like Stewart. I may be mistaken but it looked like they shifted him out of the forward line after the first quarter. He started to win some of the footy. He just burned it badly when kicking it into the forward 50 (so did everyone else though).

 

[cleanhands]

I'm a fan of Pedlar, but he needs to be dropped after tonight's horrible selfish effort.

Nah

 

[AdvancedCrowbot]

For all you melters out there - I've been training AI models to predict outcomes of AFL games. It isn't perfect but it gives some decent insights.

Looking at the statistics with decent correlations with winning (my model uses these), Geelong had us covered. This is going by the last 9-10 (round 0 screwed my code a bit) games averaged by each side - besides ELO which is their current rating pregame:

Team	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats
Win %	33.33	44.44
Scor Shot	25.11	24.11
TOV	71.78	66.11
PLUS_MINUS	7.89	8.33
OFF_RATING	110.68	107.21
DEF_RATING	96.38	107.49
True Goal Accuracy	57.74	57.07
ELO	1477.62	1523.39
OPP_ELO	1508.26	1509.88

Offensive/Defensive rating - 100 is the benchmark average - higher is better.
ELO - This uses a rating system known in chess. Is also applied to some video games matchmaking systems. Everyone starts at 1500 and based on win/losses increases or decreases. My starting point is 2015 from when a bit more data is available online. You gain more for winning against harder sides. I tweaked it to work a bit more with footy.
OPP_ELO - Is the average ELO of the opposition that team has played for the last 9-10 games - tells you how hard the team's run has been essentially. If over 1500 you've had a harder run.

My model has 70% prediction accuracy (from training data) - although that's unreliable and the true test is unseen games. The first 8 or so games of the season are always poorly predicted due to the number of variables that change across season. (Eg - crom losing Rahilly, game plan adjustments, trades etc)

The stats where crows had better averages were only slightly better. The big one you can see is the difference in defensive ratings. The model had crows at a 49% chance of winning and this is due to the home ground advantage (which on average is about an extra 12%).

Not bailing out the crows for their performance. To me it looked like a regression. But Geelong didn't get enough credit for their strength going into the game. I'm not melting as hard knowing Geelong have been a bit under rated here pregame. But still, Croms structures, ball movement, connection to forwards. If that doesn't pick up in the next few weeks let the melts begin.

PS - It's worth noting that in the data Geelong 17th ranked for true goal accuracy. Hawkins going 4-0 from tough shots hurts. I still have flashbacks of him going 0-5 against port in 2020 QF at AO and wonder when crows will go up against that version of him.

PS #2 - I went and had a look at 2017 grand final with the model. Statistically both Richmond and Crom were close, with crom slightly better, and it came down to the 12% home ground advantage actually giving Richmond a slight favorite. Same goes for Brisbane Collingwood last year.

 

[CrowBloke]

Communication was terrible to say the least

This!
Definitely looks like they are not talking, calling, letting each other know where they are and/or whether they are clear, or not.
There's something wrong, bigtime, within that group; maybe a disconnect between senior-player-privilege and junior player struggle? .

 

[Dangerousfield]

Yep Rogers has been better that quarter, big lad Read getting pushed around in the ruck a bit by Naismith but good around the ground and Will Graham also having an impact in the game but Lombardi is something else for next year.

So Gold Coast will again be hoarding a bag of junks picks to draft Lombardi then?

Let's see if the AFL finally fixes this farcical rort

 

[Crow till I die]

Sure set him up to fail with a ridiculous match up with Stewarr, then torch him for a couple of mistakes. The kid doesn't need to be dropped, he needs to learn. Same with Berry. Keep playing them, teaching them... not bouncing them in and out of the team.

The time for harsh selection policies is when you're in contention, not when you're developing. People (including the club) are so short sighted.

I think its the game plan that stinks and the lack of communication which was evident on the field. To me its almost entirely a coaching problem..with one or 2 dubious team selections

 

[MsTopG]

Sure set him up to fail with a ridiculous match up with Stewarr, then torch him for a couple of mistakes. The kid doesn't need to be dropped, he needs to learn. Same with Berry. Keep playing them, teaching them... not bouncing them in and out of the team.

The time for harsh selection policies is when you're in contention, not when you're developing. People (including the club) are so short sighted.

Berry doesnt have it and never will regardless of how many games we waste on him.

 

[Faaarrk]

Of course being pick 1 wouldn't have anything to do with it..
Watching the VFL game Richmond vs Suns currently Kane McAuliffe 1 st quarter 13 disposals 8 kicks 5 HB's 4 clearances and a goal....might be that fleet footed big bodied mid we missed from right under our noses methinks. Pitted up against Suns 1st rounder Jake Rogers and giving him an absolute bath that quarter.

What I was trying to say is that we are told our young players aren’t playing much in the midfield because they’re not fit enough yet JHF and Reid are playing a fair bit there in only their first or second season, only two recent examples.

Their talent/ skill is another topic altogether.

 

[Faaarrk]

If so, we should use him more off a wing & less inside too his body is right.

We should be doing this whenever he struggles in the middle either from tagging or lack of form or fitness.
Nicks has no faith in our young brigade.

 

[CrowBloke]

This is a seriously good post:

Something is wrong here.

Definitely, something big and bad.

Why are all our players off?
There just looks to be no joy out there, no play with your natural instincts, so much double guessing and fear.

Dunno. It's worse than the no-fun, no-individual-flair Crowbots that Craig created.
EVERYTHING was zoning, structure, react-within-the-plan from which you must not deviate.
The double-guessing is player confusion from mixed messages, probably from different Assistants who are not getting the groups to work together to Nicks' plan, IF HE HAS ONE.
Apart from slow, stop-and-think defence (which allows the opposition to set up), I can't see one.

Skills disappeared.

Dunno about 'disappeared'. Their skill levels were poor last year except for the top 5 or 6.
Clearly, they have not improved.
I see the same, scrappy, try-hard players making the same mistakes as last year.

Dawson is fumbling, can’t hit a target, bad decisions.

Yep, something wrong with him.
Maybe not happy with the "leaders" he's been saddled with?
Maybe not bought into whatever vague plans or ideas Nicks et al have come up with?
It's hard to hit a target when teammates are not running hard and intelligently into space.

Everyone failing over.

Yes, players bouncing off each other in marking packs, running into each other, under-a-metre handballs to static, marked teammates.
It's a mess because the players do not know what they are supposed to do, clearly, and that's on the Coaches.

Even Max, who would normally just go go go has been stopping and waiting.

Yep, saw that last night. In one shocking instance he marked in the clear with no-one in front of him for about 30 metres. He took one step, stopped, waited ==> turnover shortly after, instead of bolting forward and breaking the line.

It’s like all of the individual strengths players had … have been dulled if not surgically removed!! I’ve seen that before, not letting players play.

Agree. It's very worrying.

Who puts Pedlar, a creative hard nosed ball winner, in a defensive role on the best zone off defender in the league? Reminded me of Massie on Buddy.

The FIRST time the ball was down there, bombed high onto Stewart-on-Pedlar, I could not believe anybody had deliberately set that up. Appalling Coaching.

The coaching is diabolical. Our players look lost, they look confused.

... and fumbly, hesitant. Total lack of composure and knowing where they are supposed to be and what to do.
Looks to me like Burns has confused our forwards --- a lot of frustrated and angry looks/finger pointing last night.

I’m not liking what I’ve seen in our first two games this year. One bad one you can write off, this is looking like a scary trend and just dead set awful setup and play style … that’s on the coach and the, dare I say, leadership group.

Nailed it, again.
NO unity of purpose. It looked like the 2020/2021 Crows to me. Clueless.

 

[Scorpus]

What I was trying to say is that we are told our young players aren’t playing much in the midfield because they’re not fit enough yet JHF and Reid are playing a fair bit there in only their first or second season, only two recent examples.

Their talent/ skill is another topic altogether.

If they are unfit for midfield (which is usually an excuse not a legitimate reason) you at least try to play them there as much as they can take

Not give them 0 time at all, like we do

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

We should be doing this whenever he struggles in the middle either from tagging or lack of form or fitness.
Nicks has no faith in our young brigade.

This was so frustrating last night.

Both Dawson & Laird were struggling in the middle, yet we kept using them there.

Meanwhile Rankine didn't get used briefly in the middle to last quarter, Rachele was hardly used in the middle & Pedlar wasn't used at all whilst struggling up forward.

Further, Soligo who looked our best player early could easily have been switched with Dawson.

Complete lack of imagination in the coaching box to switch things up when the game is clearly not going our way

 

[BACCS]

Wait you’re suggesting Pedlar get dropped?

That’s the sort of thing you’d expect Nicks to do and leave Murphy and Smith untouched

Well not really, Nicks backed Pedlar in all of 2023 after far worse games than last night. He wasn’t polished last night, but last week he was in very tricky conditions. Criticise Nicks for things that are actually warranted, but he’s always backed in Pedlar.

 

[Faaarrk]

I think its the game plan that stinks and the lack of communication which was evident on the field. To me its almost entirely a coaching problem..with one or 2 dubious team selections

Communication in the back lines has been terrible for a few years. So many times there will be two or more going for the spoil and no-one crumbing.
Same with marks as well.

 

[Faaarrk]

If they are unfit for midfield (which is usually an excuse not a legitimate reason) you at least try to play them there as much as they can take

Not give them 0 time at all, like we do

The crazy thing is the more you play them there the fitter they become.

 

[NSolis]

Well not really, Nicks backed Pedlar in all of 2023 after far worse games than last night. He wasn’t polished last night, but last week he was in very tricky conditions. Criticise Nicks for things that are actually warranted, but he’s always backed in Pedlar.

Yep. Last year we dropped McHenry after a very good game (22 touches, 7 inside 50s, 3 goal assists and 5 coaches votes) to get Pedlar back into the team after he got suspended.

The club has supported him a lot and picked him whenever reasonable.

 

[ABAB]

The crazy thing is the more you play them there the fitter they become.

Well, we played Rachele and Soligo in there for the first 8 weeks last year in their 2nd year and totally cooked them for the entire season.......

 

[Portology]

Good: great tackle by Keays on that absolute goose who invaded the field. Well done Ben, but you should have gone in even harder, no getting penalised by the umps there!

 

[ams4crows]

Good: great tackle by Keays on that absolute goose who invaded the field. Well done Ben, but you should have gone in even harder, no getting penalised by the umps there!

And stomped on and broken the douche canoe's phone

 

[feenix67]

Berry doesnt have it and never will regardless of how many games we waste on him.

I think youre wrong. He's just another victim of the shithouse adelaide development pathway.

 

[feenix67]

Well, we played Rachele and Soligo in there for the first 8 weeks last year in their 2nd year and totally cooked them for the entire season.......

It was 6 weeks, and we didn't cook them, we just stopped playing them in there, coz experience.

 

[Faaarrk]

Well, we played Rachele and Soligo in there for the first 8 weeks last year in their 2nd year and totally cooked them for the entire season.......

Serious questions would need to be asked if any player burnt out after 8 weeks of footy in their fourth year. Even with one or two interrupted pre-seasons.

 

[CrowBloke]

Play finals? I’m expecting to hear some “it’s a long season” quotes soon.

This might be THE big problem.
Pre-season, the Club and Nicks and the "experts" were all talking "Finals".
"Gotta play Finals" ... "Final 8 is minimum expectation now" etc.

I'd like to see them playing-to-win. "We gotta play Finals" is a distraction, causing them to forget what they do best --- quick ball movement, run for each other, work hard, kick goals, win.
First, WIN. Forget about FINALS. Play the game, have fun playing the game, and nothing is more fun than doing it well enough to win.

Win enough games, Finals are assured. The more games you win, the deeper you can go. "It's a week-by-week proposition" is not a cliche. It's fact. ONE WEEK, at a time, and NOT everything, all at once.

I'm convinced that (Australian fast bowler) Mitchell Starc bowls absolute rubbish when he tries too hard.
This sounds simplistic, but the Crows look to me like they're trying too hard, and stuffing up because of it.
After last year, they did not have to re-invent what they do, but it certainly needed tweaking, especially those close losses.If they didn't change anything else, but find way/s to win another 3 or 4 of those close games in 2024, great. They're IN.

GET THERE, first!

I reckon the we-gotta-play-Finals imperative has messed with their heads and put them under pressure to play Finals in Rounds One and Two.
I'd like Nicks to tell them:
"OK, fellas, let's relax a bit, enjoy what we do by doing it well, and focus only on Fremantle, away, on how we can beat Fremantle, away".

It's a 6-month Marathon, a grind, and the challenge is to be playing their best footy in July/August and peak in September.
End-of-shouty-old-man rant.

 

[AFC979810]

Rahilly is proving to be a massive loss.

Is it?

Our forward line was nothing really special in 2021 / 2022.

I would wager that our great 2023 was more of a product of Tex having a career best year and the injection of Rankine.

 

[ABAB]

It was 6 weeks, and we didn't cook them, we just stopped playing them in there, coz experience.

Rachele was 7 weeks and Soligo was 8 weeks, Nicks even mentioned Soligo struggled with his fitness late in the season and if you didn't noticed how cooked Rachele was after 7 weeks then you don't know football.