Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[Next Waiting]

I think it's difficult to trust this team given the evidence of the last 2.5 seasons. Every time we look to have strung a few good performances together we lose to Hawthorn or manage to screw up against a decent team from a winning position. The past month or so has been generally strong, but I feel like there's a howler just around the corner.

Good teams have a significantly smaller gap between their best and worst than we do - even within games we have periods of pretty poor play, particularly defensively. Parts of the first quarter, and then late 3rd/early 4th were examples of that on the weekend - despite our general dominance across the game, if Freo's tall forwards weren't butchering set shots it could have been a bit closer than it was.

There's a chance that 12 wins and a decent percentage gets you in, but more than likely 13 is required (I've seen some other posters say it might need 14 wins - that would be surprising to me tbh). So if we presume it's 13 needed then we need to finish 6-3.

I'm confident the best this team has to offer could win any of the remaining nine, but I'm equally confident that they won't play consistently well across that period. We'll lose a game to Adelaide or GWS, maybe even one of the North games - never mind the other games that look more challenging. Best guess is we end up winning 11 or 12 and yet again finish in no mans land.

If we do manage to go on a run and finish 7-2 and end up in 6th/7th spot then we'll definitely have deserved it. Regardless of Melbourne's form they're always daunting (particularly for us), Port away is never easy, Sydney away is the hardest trip in footy right now, Carlton look pretty formidable and outside of North there aren't any easy beats in the run home (and even they look to have turned a corner).

Dunno. The vibe is just a little bit different at the moment. Players who were notoriously inconsistent up to 6 weeks ago are now putting in very consistent performances. Bailey Williams springs to mind.

Performance is more even across the team. Brisbane seems like a bit of an outlier in the context of recent matches. Something wasn't quite right in the engine room and that impacted everywhere else.

I think they believe, given a fit team with the best midfield combination available, that they can beat anybody and they're collectively prepared to work hard to do it. I didn't think that they were a) collectively up for it and b) believed they could 6 weeks ago.

 

[Dogs Rule]

We'll beat North 2x, Adelaide and GWS in Ballarat.
We'll lose to Port, Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney (all honourable losses after some in-game injuries and one-sided umpiring against us).

Carlton game is 50/50

Nope, I can't have us losing to Melbourne or Port and even Geelong.
Definitely not Melbourne got to fix that **** once and for all. It ends this year.

 

[ScragCity]

Nope, I can't have us losing to Melbourne or Port and even Geelong.
Definitely not Melbourne got to fix that **** once and for all. It ends this year.

History always repeats itself

 

[dogwatch]

History always repeats itself

Because we weren’t paying proper attention the first time?

 

[ScragCity]

Finish 4th, beat Sydney twice to win the flag. That's my dream.

 

[MYOB]

I've predicted:

Wins: North, North, Adelaide, Melbourne, GWS.

Losses: Port, Geelong, Sydney, Carlton

12-11 record in 11th.

Even if we go 13-10, I'd still have us missing by half a game.

That's exactly what I've got in my ladder predictor.

Unless some of the bottom teams start causing some upsets, we are going to need win 7 of our last 9 to make the 8.

 

[bobs head soup]

Finish 4th, beat Sydney twice to win the flag. That's my dream.View attachment 2022157

With a massive free kick differential in the GF.

 

[Freshwater]

Finish 4th, beat Sydney twice to win the flag. That's my dream.View attachment 2022157

We’ll time capsule this prediction. Oh how amazing would it to beat Swan twice in finals? And I’d like to put the cats away in the preliminary more than the pies, just to bury some more historical trauma.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

13 wins is the magic number.

On unlikely situations 12 wins gets us in, but would involve us getting past about 5 teams on percentage with these teams going 8th-12th or whatever. And situations like Collingwood defeating North yesterday makes that marginally more unlikely (ie Pies may have been one of those teams with 12 wins, now, they will more likely manage to get to 13 wins).

But with our percentage, 13 wins it is.

 

[TiAn_]

7-2 gets us into finals.

We’d need to win all the games we’re supposed to win, without any let downs (losing to the Crows in Adelaide after beating some tougher opponents would be a classic bed shitting game for us) and beat a couple of opponents above us on the ladder.

If we pull that off during the hardest stretch of our fixture, we will well and truly deserve to be there and would go in with some confidence we could win a final or two.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

7-2 gets us into finals.

We’d need to win all the games we’re supposed to win, without any let downs (losing to the Crows in Adelaide after beating some tougher opponents would be a classic bed shitting game for us) and beat a couple of opponents above us on the ladder.

If we pull that off during the hardest stretch of our fixture, we will well and truly deserve to be there and would go in with some confidence we could win a final or two.

I would be very surprised if we don't make it through on percentage with 13 wins, especially after the last game, so 6-3 gets us through.

We have better percentages than teams with one more win than us as it stands, so it's highly unlikely that those teams will gain percentage on us on the proviso that we're still winning one more game than us.

For the teams that have the same number of wins than us ... unless Melbourne beat us by 15 goals, it's unlikely, Hawthorn not worth thinking about. They're the ones that will need 14 wins as they probably won't catch most/all of Geelong, Port, GWS on percentage.

For the sake of argument, for e.g. GC to jump us on percentage, they need to outscore us by 140 points across the 19 games remaining for each team. That might not seem like much, but it's a difference of about 15 points per round within the rounds that we have the same amounts of wins and losses every week. That's highly unlikely. If we win 6 games and the Suns win 6 more games, the average margin of those 6 games needs to be 15 points better for them. And if we lose 3 games and they lose 4 games, the average margin of those losses needs to be 15 points better for them. Both need to be true.

The only scenario I see where 13 wins don't get us in is if 8th has 14 wins, if lots of teams in finals have 14 wins - teams in the top 8 pinching and evening out wins to each other than about 5 or 6 of them in the top 8 all have 14 wins from 3rd down to 8th or whatever. But again, highly unlikely. One of them will only win 13, which allows us to jump them on percentage.

 

[dogwatch]

I would be very surprised if we don't make it through on percentage with 13 wins, especially after the last game, so 6-3 gets us through.

We have better percentages than teams with one more win than us as it stands, so it's highly unlikely that those teams will gain percentage on us on the proviso that we're still winning one more game than us.

For the teams that have the same number of wins than us ... unless Melbourne beat us by 15 goals, it's unlikely, Hawthorn not worth thinking about. They're the ones that will need 14 wins as they probably won't catch most/all of Geelong, Port, GWS on percentage.

For the sake of argument, for e.g. GC to jump us on percentage, they need to outscore us by 140 points across the 19 games remaining for each team. That might not seem like much, but it's a difference of about 15 points per round within the rounds that we have the same amounts of wins and losses every week. That's highly unlikely. If we win 6 games and the Suns win 6 more games, the average margin of those 6 games needs to be 15 points better for them. And if we lose 3 games and they lose 4 games, the average margin of those losses needs to be 15 points better for them. Both need to be true.

The only scenario I see where 13 wins don't get us in is if 8th has 14 wins, if lots of teams in finals have 14 wins - teams in the top 8 pinching and evening out wins to each other than about 5 or 6 of them in the top 8 all have 14 wins from 3rd down to 8th or whatever. But again, highly unlikely. One of them will only win 13, which allows us to jump them on percentage.

Pretty much agree with this. The wild card is that four teams have a draw which takes percentage out of the equation. And that's assuming no more draws this season.

I haven't done a predictor but I think it's possible (though very unlikely) that eighth place has 13.5 wins.

 

[hutchy31]

Dunno. The vibe is just a little bit different at the moment. Players who were notoriously inconsistent up to 6 weeks ago are now putting in very consistent performances. Bailey Williams springs to mind.

Performance is more even across the team. Brisbane seems like a bit of an outlier in the context of recent matches. Something wasn't quite right in the engine room and that impacted everywhere else.

I think they believe, given a fit team with the best midfield combination available, that they can beat anybody and they're collectively prepared to work hard to do it. I didn't think that they were a) collectively up for it and b) believed they could 6 weeks ago.

I don't disagree - it has felt different, and it's been done missing some key players in the midfield and forward line. But it'll need to continue for a few more weeks yet before we can have some real confidence that we'll perform consistently. Even if we lose, which we're obviously likely to do in at least a couple of the remaining games, as long as the performance is on the level - defensively in particular - then it'll breed confidence for the remainder of this season and into next.

The Hawthorn loss looked terrible at the time, but maybe isn't so bad given the evidence of their turnaround. Brisbane is making their charge now they have most of their team fit, so while I think that margin wasn't really acceptable at home at least it's not a massive outlier. Sydney are clearly the best team in it and given better luck maybe we nick that one.

The boys get to come up against sides that have beaten them earlier this year - Sydney, Melbourne, Geelong - and will need to win at least two of those imo. They also get Port at a decent time, Adelaide's season is likely to be over before we play them, and the GWS game is at home (not that they're particularly scary right now either). The good thing about how the fixture has fallen is that if they're a credible threat we'll know by the time finals roll around.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

It's a little bit contrived but an upset loss to Adelaide or North wouldn't be disaster on the proviso we still get to 12 wins, because it means that we're likely defeating the other teams that are competing with us for finals.

A little but unrealistic, but not hugely so, is a ladder that looks something like this:

 

[MYOB]

Pretty much agree with this. The wild card is that four teams have a draw which takes percentage out of the equation. And that's assuming no more draws this season.

I haven't done a predictor but I think it's possible (though very unlikely) that eighth place has 13.5 wins.

I agree

 

[hutchy31]

Pretty much agree with this. The wild card is that four teams have a draw which takes percentage out of the equation. And that's assuming no more draws this season.

I haven't done a predictor but I think it's possible (though very unlikely) that eighth place has 13.5 wins.

Yes, if Freo make finals there's a decent chance they do it on 13.5 wins. But as 3NP has said above, for more than 13 wins to only be good enough for 8th place might be unlikely. 13.5 wins likely finds them finishing 6th-7th, with a 13-win team with the best percentage making it in eighth.

There are scenarios where a 13.5 win team miss out - it's not outlandish that Essendon drop like a stone and miss out, or Brisbane/Freo are 9th with that record. But that's all based on the comp not getting many shock results on the run home, and you can guarantee there will be a few of those.

The main thing I get from taking a look at the draw is how benign the run home is for a few teams - Carlton in particular (who should be a lock for top 2 imo), but I have GC making it as well as their draw is fairly easy. Whether or not they can win away is the big question, but they'll have a few decent chances.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Yes, if Freo make finals there's a decent chance they do it on 13.5 wins. But as 3NP has said above, for more than 13 wins to only be good enough for 8th place might be unlikely. 13.5 wins likely finds them finishing 6th-7th, with a 13-win team with the best percentage making it in eighth.

There are scenarios where a 13.5 win team miss out - it's not outlandish that Essendon drop like a stone and miss out, or Brisbane/Freo are 9th with that record. But that's all based on the comp not getting many shock results on the run home, and you can guarantee there will be a few of those.

The main thing I get from taking a look at the draw is how benign the run home is for a few teams - Carlton in particular (who should be a lock for top 2 imo), but I have GC making it as well as their draw is fairly easy. Whether or not they can win away is the big question, but they'll have a few decent chances.

Freo and Geelong both have decent run homes purely through good home ground advantages. Both can not play particularly well for the rest of the season, and they'll still pinch wins by playing at home.

Our games against Melbourne and Port are the virtual elimination finals. Drop both and we won't make finals. Win both and we're highly likely. Win only one, and we are only a slight chance.

 

[TiAn_]

Pretty much agree with this. The wild card is that four teams have a draw which takes percentage out of the equation. And that's assuming no more draws this season.

I haven't done a predictor but I think it's possible (though very unlikely) that eighth place has 13.5 wins.

Yeah this would have been my response. Bombers, Dockers and Lions having a draw each makes it more complicated than just 13 or 14 wins and percentage.

 

[JTCWBFC]

It's a little bit contrived but an upset loss to Adelaide or North wouldn't be disaster on the proviso we still get to 12 wins, because it means that we're likely defeating the other teams that are competing with us for finals.

A little but unrealistic, but not hugely so, is a ladder that looks something like this: View attachment 2022252

Not sure I could handle an Elimination final v Geelong.

The AFL would probably find a way to change the rule & give it to them at their shithole ground just to spite us.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Not sure I could handle an Elimination final v Geelong.

The AFL would probably find a way to change the rule & give it to them at their shithole ground just to spite us.

Jamarra after the siren, you are the King of Footscray!

 

[Cudi]

I don't think the run home isn't as difficult as others do. Sydney and Carlton are the only games we would go into as clear underdogs, every other game is 50/50 at worst.

Geelong, Port, Melbourne and GWS have all been just going last month so all very winnable.

North x 2 and Crows are games you just win if you're serious.

 

[Doggy]

I don't think the run home isn't as difficult as others do. Sydney and Carlton are the only games we would go into as clear underdogs, every other game is 50/50 at worst.

Geelong, Port, Melbourne and GWS have all been just going last month so all very winnable.

North x 2 and Crows are games you just win if you're serious.

I think even Carlton is close to 50/50. There's only one real stand out team.

No doubt the odds will have us underdogs in most games but ability wise can win most of them ... whether the team turns up each week is another matter

 

[ScragCity]

There's not too many ways to be born. We are either pushed through a woman's cervix and out of her vagina, or we are manually extracted via an incision into her abdomen and uterus. If there's a third option I'd love to hear about it.

I don't know how the rest of this season will go. You just can't predict anything with these Dogs. But what I do know is that I'm enjoying watching us play, and that's not something I expected to happen again this year. I don't know what changed but I like the way we are going about it.

 

[Lex22]

Well we need something to chat about during the bye. Pretty up and down season from us so far. I'd say we've looked pretty consistent since the Richmond win.

Theres no secret we probably have one of, if not the most hardest run home out of all teams this year. Specifically the next 6 games. You'd expect the next 6 will defy where we finish on the ladder.

We play four teams (Three being interstate) who as I write this are all currently in the top 5.

The next 6 games:

North
Port (Away)
Carlton
Geelong (Away)
Sydney (Away)
Melbourne

North is the only team there that you would be pretty confident about. We should be confident against Melbourne who look terrible at the moment but the way things have shaped out in the past three years, you can't be confident against them.

Unless theres an Injury surge for Sydney, can't see us beating them up there. Even with a full strength team.
Reckon Carlton will be too hard also. Their Forward line is simply too good against our defence. We would have to be very switched on to win that one

Geelong and Port are the big ones, both haven't looked too comfortable at home in recent weeks. We would have to upset one of them if we want to make the eight you would think.

But who knows what we can do with a full team back, still worried about our backline. We love a fairytale though!

3-3 is probably a win in my books. How do you think we approach the next 6 games?

Providing we beat North, I feel like that Port match is somewhat of an eight-point game.

Win that and we likely find the remaining four wins (at least), especially with momentum. Lose and we could be gone.

 

[Frewy]

Essendon have 3 bankable games and Fremantle have two, depending on form either team could fall to 12.5 wins.
Port Adelaide and GWS (less likely, good percentage) are the two others most likely to fall each with two bankable wins and could fall to 13 wins. Geelong has minimum four bankable wins so short of a complete capitulation should be safe at 14+.

This leads me to believe need to go minimum 6-3 getting us in clean on 13 wins for a 12.5 win final eight setup (2023) or by a superior percentage for 13 wins.

So.... beat North then scrape 2-2 in the next four top-8 matches allowing us to drop one of the last four mid-table or lower matchups on the 'Finals Runway'. Suns and Dees are in a similar position, but their percentages give us an edge.