Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[Next Waiting]

NM in rare form. That'll be right, just before we play them.

Will be a blessing that we won't be taking them for granted and that they won't be witches hats.

 

[ScragCity]

We'll beat North 2x, Adelaide and GWS in Ballarat.
We'll lose to Port, Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney (all honourable losses after some in-game injuries and one-sided umpiring against us).

Carlton game is 50/50

 

[Doggy]

We'll beat North 2x, Adelaide and GWS in Ballarat.
We'll lose to Port, Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney (all honourable losses after some in-game injuries and one-sided umpiring against us).

Carlton game is 50/50

Will beat Melbourne. I'm not even sure they'll beat Norf next week.

Port are crap too

 

[X_box_X]

Port are crap too

Quiet achievers. If they beat GWS, they will be second on the ladder.

Don't forget they've had their captain and second best player out.

I'm not saying they're the second best team, but they're certainly not crap. Hinkley also has a 7-5 win/loss record against Bevo including the last three wins and 4/5. Our one win was the one that mattered.

 

[Doggy]

Quiet achievers. If they beat GWS, they will be second on the ladder.

Don't forget they've had their captain and second best player out.

I'm not saying they're the second best team, but they're certainly not crap. Hinkley also has a 7-5 win/loss record against Bevo including the last three wins and 4/5. Our one win was the one that mattered.

I'd back us against them

 

[X_box_X]

I've predicted:

Wins: North, North, Adelaide, Melbourne, GWS.

Losses: Port, Geelong, Sydney, Carlton

12-11 record in 11th.

Even if we go 13-10, I'd still have us missing by half a game.

 

[Doggy]

I've predicted:

Wins: North, North, Adelaide, Melbourne, GWS.

Losses: Port, Geelong, Sydney, Carlton

12-11 record in 11th.

Even if we go 13-10, I'd still have us missing by half a game.

Freo won't win that many.

Also think we beat Port and possibly Geelong and Carltank. Those are 50/50

 

[X_box_X]

You see it differently to most.

We're the most average team I've ever seen. The biggest teasers ever.

There is no way we're winning six of our last eight. That would rely on way too many things going our way.

1) kissed on the dick with goal kicking accuracy

2) kissed on the dick with injury

3) getting the rub of the green with umpires

All three of those have to happen. Very, very unlikely.

If we were consistently well coached and reliable, different story. But the reality is we can't be trusted so we have to rely on a few too many intangibles to be any realistic chance.

 

[Doggy]

You see it differently to most.

We're the most average team I've ever seen. The biggest teasers ever.

There is no way we're winning six of our last eight. That would rely on way too many things going our way.

1) kissed on the dick with goal kicking accuracy

2) kissed on the dick with injury

3) getting the rub of the green with umpires

All three of those have to happen. Very, very unlikely.

If we were consistently well coached and reliable, different story. But the reality is we can't be trusted so we have to rely on a few too many intangibles to be any realistic chance.

Who said we were definitely winning 6 of the last 8? There are 9 games left anyway.. you have us winning 5 but can't find another when the rest other than Sydney are inconsistent at best.

I said a few of those were 50/50. And they are. There is one stand out team this year. Most of the rest are inconsistent at best.

Geelong lost 4 in a row including some at home then nearly lost to Richmond at home. They're far from unbeatable.

Port are just crap. I'm surprised you rate them, not that many do. They'd be lucky to make finals. And if they lost to Hawthorn they'd be out right now.

Carlton are up and down too and should have lost to Essendope. They were thrashed in all key indicators except their opponents couldn't kick straight. They will be the hardest other than Sydney but they're beatable

 

[CarnTheScray]

Quiet achievers. If they beat GWS, they will be second on the ladder.

Welp.

Don't forget they've had their captain and second best player out.

We on the other hand have had no important players out.

 

[CarnTheScray]

We'll beat North 2x, Adelaide and GWS in Ballarat.
We'll lose to Port, Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney (all honourable losses after some in-game injuries and one-sided umpiring against us).

Carlton game is 50/50

We’ll beat one of Melbourne or Sydney guarantee it. Will probably lose to North to counter it.

 

[ScragCity]

Will beat Melbourne. I'm not even sure they'll beat Norf next week.

Port are crap too

We've been their bunnies since the GF belting

 

[Doggy]

We've been their bunnies since the GF belting

We've been Petracca's bunny ... and he's now gone. They lost to Fremantle by 92

 

[CarnTheScray]

We've been their bunnies since the GF belting

Playing them the first game of the year at the MCG 3 whole years in a row isn’t helpful. The story at Marvel went differently.

Would be embarrassing if we lost to them again.

 

[_Mike_]

3-3 at best I reckon

Little chance at Sydney
Carlton same
Geelong at KP - enough said

That leaves possible wins against North, Port, Melbourne

 

[Dog 36]

Reg run home We play at our best or as close to and we are a chance in all of those games

Sometimes it’s also about the timing when you play sides for example North is a different proposition now as compared to 3 4 weeks ago. Melbourne may have been great to play last 3 weeks etc

We are capable just have to bring our intensity every game and results will take care of themselves

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

So we play Port the week after their bye, they also play a weak team before their bye.

Sydney is interesting, the week before they play Brisbane at the Gabba, plenty of sore boys after playing on that hard ground, and it will be a tough match for them, we could get them on the rebound. However week before Sydney we play Geelong, which with Bont in the form he is in, and the form they are in we should win, but Sydney could get us on the rebound.

My wins, North x2, Adelaide, Melbourne, Geelong, GWS.

I would love Bevo to put West on Stewart and tag him.

 

[Doggy]

So we play Port the week after their bye, they also play a weak team before their bye.

Sydney is interesting, the week before they play Brisbane at the Gabba, plenty of sore boys after playing on that hard ground, and it will be a tough match for them, we could get them on the rebound. However week before Sydney we play Geelong, which with Bont in the form he is in, and the form they are in we should win, but Sydney could get us on the rebound.

My wins, North x2, Adelaide, Melbourne, Geelong, GWS.

I would love Bevo to put West on Stewart and tag him.

I think Port is very gettable

 

[Libbaaaa]

So we play Port the week after their bye, they also play a weak team before their bye.

Sydney is interesting, the week before they play Brisbane at the Gabba, plenty of sore boys after playing on that hard ground, and it will be a tough match for them, we could get them on the rebound. However week before Sydney we play Geelong, which with Bont in the form he is in, and the form they are in we should win, but Sydney could get us on the rebound.

My wins, North x2, Adelaide, Melbourne, Geelong, GWS.

I would love Bevo to put West on Stewart and tag him.

Port came off their bye this week didn’t they? We should be absolutely destroying their key backs, especially with Darcy back in the team by then.

Historically they have tagged Libba with Drew but you would think he goes to Bont which means JHF plays more forward which is good as his burst can hurt us out of the middle. Need to have Libba make life absolutely hell for Butters.

 

[Doggy]

Port came off their bye this week didn’t they? We should be absolutely destroying their key backs, especially with Darcy back in the team by then.

Historically they have tagged Libba with Drew but you would think he goes to Bont which means JHF plays more forward which is good as his burst can hurt us out of the middle. Need to have Libba make life absolutely hell for Butters.

Naughtiness tends to destroy them too

 

[doggy_dog]

I think we need 4-2, not sure 3-3 gets us there.

Mind you I'd effin love to win it from 8th, especially against Sydney in the grandfinal feeling like they are the deserving ones that are entitled to it. We can knock off GWS in an away prelim too please

Sneak into 8th on percentage.
Beat Essendon week 1 keeping their streak alive
Knock out Port in straight sets week 2
GWS in the prelim
Beat Sydney in the GF despite them winning a very lopsided free kick count

 

[BrisDog]

I just want to see the boys play to their potential, like on the weekend. If we play 100% to our potential we win at least 6 more games regular season.

It will be interesting how we fit in English, Lobb and Darcy. All should play against North. I want Garcia back in immediately for either CD or Gallagher. Keith back in for when his hamstring is okay for Khamis. JJ in, probably for Bramble.

 

[Freshwater]

I just want to see the boys play to their potential, like on the weekend. If we play 100% to our potential we win at least 6 more games regular season.

It will be interesting how we fit in English, Lobb and Darcy. All should play against North. I want Garcia back in immediately for either CD or Gallagher. Keith back in for when his hamstring is okay for Khamis. JJ in, probably for Bramble.

I like your post except for Bramble out. He was very good on the weekend and has been building up to that game. JJ when fit and firing may come in for Frejah or CD or an injury but only after his body is good and some VFL form.

 

[Next Waiting]

At full strength, I think we'll be a proper test for Sydney on their home deck. I don't think the smaller ground necessarily disadvantages us against them. Our midfield mix will be different to the last time we played and surely we couldn't cop 2 injuries b4 half time again.

You're always just one penetrating kick out of the centre away from a shot goal from 20m at that ground and we've got a couple who can do that. Naughton, Marra and Darcy will challenge their defences under those circumstances. Our defences will also be challenged.

The midfield will decide it. I'm liking ours more by the day with the addition of Richards.

We're also off an 8 day break against the cats. Sydney off 7 against the lions.

 

[hutchy31]

I think it's difficult to trust this team given the evidence of the last 2.5 seasons. Every time we look to have strung a few good performances together we lose to Hawthorn or manage to screw up against a decent team from a winning position. The past month or so has been generally strong, but I feel like there's a howler just around the corner.

Good teams have a significantly smaller gap between their best and worst than we do - even within games we have periods of pretty poor play, particularly defensively. Parts of the first quarter, and then late 3rd/early 4th were examples of that on the weekend - despite our general dominance across the game, if Freo's tall forwards weren't butchering set shots it could have been a bit closer than it was.

There's a chance that 12 wins and a decent percentage gets you in, but more than likely 13 is required (I've seen some other posters say it might need 14 wins - that would be surprising to me tbh). So if we presume it's 13 needed then we need to finish 6-3.

I'm confident the best this team has to offer could win any of the remaining nine, but I'm equally confident that they won't play consistently well across that period. We'll lose a game to Adelaide or GWS, maybe even one of the North games - never mind the other games that look more challenging. Best guess is we end up winning 11 or 12 and yet again finish in no mans land.

If we do manage to go on a run and finish 7-2 and end up in 6th/7th spot then we'll definitely have deserved it. Regardless of Melbourne's form they're always daunting (particularly for us), Port away is never easy, Sydney away is the hardest trip in footy right now, Carlton look pretty formidable and outside of North there aren't any easy beats in the run home (and even they look to have turned a corner).