Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[peetoo]

It's really interesting to see Carlton and Essendon doing basically the opposite of us - and having a stack of losses at the end of the season instead of the start. Not sure what I'd prefer as a supporter.
Carlton really should beat Collingwood this weekend. I don't think Essendon have much chance against Freo

Tipping Collingwood in Pendles 400th

 

[Paul Kersey]

It's really interesting to see Carlton and Essendon doing basically the opposite of us - and having a stack of losses at the end of the season instead of the start. Not sure what I'd prefer as a supporter.
Carlton really should beat Collingwood this weekend. I don't think Essendon have much chance against Freo

Wouldn’t shock me if Cwood get up particularly for Pendlebury.

 

[The Jet From Poowong]

 

[hawkinoz]

As per my calc, we can lose the next 2 and still finish 7th if we win last 2 games with 90+ point differential

Games to come
GWS -> Hawks, Lions, Dockers and Dogs ( 1 Win and 3 losses)
Port -> Syd, Demons, Crows, Dockers ( 1 Win and 3 losses)
Melb - > Dogs, Port, Suns, Pies ( 3 Win and 1 loss)

Even these 2 teams can slide but unlikely
Dogs -> Demons, Crows, North, Giants
Blues -> Pies, Hawks, Eagles, Saints

If GWS win all their games, Hawks will still be 8 in my above calc
Same with Port, Hawks will still be 8 in my above calc
If Melb win 3 and lose only to Port, Hawks will still be 8 in my above calc




Only way we miss out is if GWS win 2 or more and Port win all their games & we drop the next 2.

We drop only 1, we still make it.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

As per my calc, we can lose the next 2 and still finish 7th if we win last 2 games with 90+ point differential

Games to come
GWS -> Hawks, Lions, Dockers and Dogs ( 1 Win and 3 losses)
Port -> Syd, Demons, Crows, Dockers ( 1 Win and 3 losses)
Melb - > Dogs, Port, Suns, Pies ( 3 Win and 1 loss)

Even these 2 teams can slide but unlikely
Dogs -> Demons, Crows, North, Giants
Blues -> Pies, Hawks, Eagles, Saints

If GWS win all their games, Hawks will still be 8 in my above calc
Same with Port, Hawks will still be 8 in my above calc
If Melb win 3 and lose only to Port, Hawks will still be 8 in my above calc

View attachment 2062621


Only way we miss out is if GWS win 2 or more and Port win all their games & we drop the next 2.

We drop only 1, we still make it.

Yep. Port plays GWS in the run home.

The hell scenario is if GWS 3 games and lose to Port. And Port win all 4. That would actually be the universe conspiring against us.

 

[Nugett]

It's really interesting to see Carlton and Essendon doing basically the opposite of us - and having a stack of losses at the end of the season instead of the start. Not sure what I'd prefer as a supporter.
Carlton really should beat Collingwood this weekend. I don't think Essendon have much chance against Freo

You may find it interesting, I find it highly entertaining

 

[FisherHawk]

As per my calc, we can lose the next 2 and still finish 7th if we win last 2 games with 90+ point differential

Games to come
GWS -> Hawks, Lions, Dockers and Dogs ( 1 Win and 3 losses)
Port -> Syd, Demons, Crows, Dockers ( 1 Win and 3 losses)
Melb - > Dogs, Port, Suns, Pies ( 3 Win and 1 loss)

Even these 2 teams can slide but unlikely
Dogs -> Demons, Crows, North, Giants
Blues -> Pies, Hawks, Eagles, Saints

If GWS win all their games, Hawks will still be 8 in my above calc
Same with Port, Hawks will still be 8 in my above calc
If Melb win 3 and lose only to Port, Hawks will still be 8 in my above calc

View attachment 2062621


Only way we miss out is if GWS win 2 or more and Port win all their games & we drop the next 2.

We drop only 1, we still make it.

You're clutching at straws if you think 13 wins will get in the 8. Only the most remarkable scenario will see that. It's 1 loss max or 14 wins to get us there.

 

[peetoo]

You're clutching at straws if you think 13 wins will get in the 8. Only the most remarkable scenario will see that. It's 1 loss max or 14 wins to get us there.

Let’s lose one before going down that track. 4 to go, lost one in the last 4

 

[theiaofseed]

Last 9 weeks(post the Port Adelaide choke)

8-1 at 141.8%

During this period we've beaten 3 top 5 teams, averaging just shy of 17 goals a game. We've got by far the best record during this period.

During the same period.

Brisbane 8-1 123.4% - Defeated 1 top 5 teams.
Bulldogs 6-3 113.4% - Defeated 3 top 5 teams.


Bulldogs and Brisbane have been good but we've been better.

 

[tommyk72]

The reason we have 'such an even season' is because we in fact have such an uneven season. To have 3 teams that are an absolute basket case like North, Richmond and West Coast - who have 7 wins between them - just donating wins to the rest of the comp it's basically the same effect as inflation, where a win isn't worth as much as other seasons where there's less win disparity.

The same thing happened when GC and GWS came in and Melbourne were as bad as them. Some even seasons, but we didn't notice so much because we were primed and winning flags.

Not sure this is the case. We've still got four rounds (or 12 games) for those bottom three sides to go. Assuming they win one more each (a little bit of a stretch, but particularly eagles and north could get up) they end up with 10 wins each. That's the same as 2022, one behind 2020, same as 2018). So, literally every second year. But we've not had the same level of evenness in those years.

 

[Walshawk]

This week is the big one. Big win and out destiny is in our own hands. GWS have a tough draw so if we beat them by 30+ we are just about in even if we lose to Carlton.

 

[TheFourPillars]

This week is the big one. Big win and out destiny is in our own hands. GWS have a tough draw so if we beat them by 30+ we are just about in even if we lose to Carlton.

I think we just take the win at this stage and work from there

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Crazy season. We just gotta keep winning.


Not out of the realms for…

Carlton to lose to Pies(Pendleton 400th) and us in the next two weeks.

For Freo to get done against the Bombres at the G after a week of fire and brimstone, and then Freo to beat Cats in Perth.

Lions lose to Saints at Marvel and Pies at the G, as we know they don’t travel to Vic very well or consistently.

Cats to lose to Freo in Perth and Saints at Marvel.

Dogs to lose to Demons, who have been up and down.


All that happens and if we can win all games we can actually finish 2nd.

As I said, crazy.

 

[SpanishBrowne]

Crazy season. We just gotta keep winning.


Not out of the realms for…

Carlton to lose to Pies(Pendleton 400th) and us in the next two weeks.

For Freo to get done against the Bombres at the G after a week of fire and brimstone, and then Freo to beat Cats in Perth.

Lions lose to Saints at Marvel and Pies at the G, as we know they don’t travel to Vic very well or consistently.

Cats to lose to Freo in Perth and Saints at Marvel.

Dogs to lose to Demons, who have been up and down.


All that happens and if we can win all games we can actually finish 2nd.

As I said, crazy.

as long as we don't have to rely on Sydney for anything.

they're definitely not getting anything from me for Christmas.

 

[bindas12]

Crazy season. We just gotta keep winning.


Not out of the realms for…

Carlton to lose to Pies(Pendleton 400th) and us in the next two weeks.

For Freo to get done against the Bombres at the G after a week of fire and brimstone, and then Freo to beat Cats in Perth.

Lions lose to Saints at Marvel and Pies at the G, as we know they don’t travel to Vic very well or consistently.

Cats to lose to Freo in Perth and Saints at Marvel.

Dogs to lose to Demons, who have been up and down.


All that happens and if we can win all games we can actually finish 2nd.

As I said, crazy.

For all the shit everyone throws at AFL, they are clearly doing something right when it comes to creating an even competition. For this many teams to still be in it and an any given Sunday scenario most weeks.

 

[hawkinoz]

Crazy season. We just gotta keep winning.


Not out of the realms for…

Carlton to lose to Pies(Pendleton 400th) and us in the next two weeks.

For Freo to get done against the Bombres at the G after a week of fire and brimstone, and then Freo to beat Cats in Perth.

Lions lose to Saints at Marvel and Pies at the G, as we know they don’t travel to Vic very well or consistently.

Cats to lose to Freo in Perth and Saints at Marvel.

Dogs to lose to Demons, who have been up and down.


All that happens and if we can win all games we can actually finish 2nd.

As I said, crazy.

This article rates Saints as equal 4rth alongwith Geelong (since Rd 12) on the core 4 profiles, ( Hawks are equal 2nd with Dogs with Swans on top). Lions are 9th and Blues 6th.

Saints have Lions, Tigers, Cats & Blues to come, all at Marvel. So likely to do quite some damage.

Three teams fit the bill as true AFL flag contenders. One isn’t even in the top eight

Three teams fit the bill as true AFL flag contenders. One isn’t even in the top eight

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[DogDaySonny]

For all the shit everyone throws at AFL, they are clearly doing something right when it comes to creating an even competition. For this many teams to still be in it and an any given Sunday scenario most weeks.

Maybe. Are the games objectively better? St Kilda plays a lot of close, shitty games. GCS and GWS are both propped up to the dizzying heights of mediocrity with bucketloads of cash. Three teams are so awful that their losses spread across everyone else to create a seeming broad balance in outcomes.

So, it’s a close season, that’s for sure, but how many teams are playing sustainable, predictably good football? Maybe three in the second half, at best, and two of them are struggling to make the eight. Although a close season, I’m not convinced the AFL have engineered a good one.

 

[DogDaySonny]

Further to my point above, the top 8 teams have won 44 more games than they have lost. The bottom three teams have lost 41 more than they have won.

West Coast, Richmond and North account for the virtual entirety of the top eight’s success. The AFL has obviously concentrated failure. There’s no indication they have improved the value of success.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

This article rates Saints as equal 4rth alongwith Geelong (since Rd 12) on the core 4 profiles, ( Hawks are equal 2nd with Dogs with Swans on top). Lions are 9th and Blues 6th.

Saints have Lions, Tigers, Cats & Blues to come, all at Marvel. So likely to do quite some damage.

Three teams fit the bill as true AFL flag contenders. One isn’t even in the top eight

Three teams fit the bill as true AFL flag contenders. One isn’t even in the top eight

www.foxsports.com.au

Yeah, but…. St Kilda.

 

[KermitJagger]

Maybe. Are the games objectively better? St Kilda plays a lot of close, shitty games. GCS and GWS are both propped up to the dizzying heights of mediocrity with bucketloads of cash. Three teams are so awful that their losses spread across everyone else to create a seeming broad balance in outcomes.

So, it’s a close season, that’s for sure, but how many teams are playing sustainable, predictably good football? Maybe three in the second half, at best, and two of them are struggling to make the eight. Although a close season, I’m not convinced the AFL have engineered a good one.

I 100% agree with this. They've created closer seasons by making the better teams worse, not the worse teams better, and that's sort of the AFL version of McDonald's improving their drive thru service times by regularly keeping their waiting bays filled and not by actually making service quicker.

There's a lot of interesting stuff out there about how quantitative measures make people better at achieving the measure itself, and not the desired outcome of the measure.

 

[scrim reaper]

Further to this, I am not sure I have seen a team that has been really good since our 3peat team. Definitely feels like the highs are less high when it comes to team quality. Perhaps a symptom of adding 2 teams to the comp and the talent dilution that comes with that, in addition to the equalisation measure.

 

[Sixpence]

Crazy season. We just gotta keep winning.


Not out of the realms for…

Carlton to lose to Pies(Pendleton 400th) and us in the next two weeks.

For Freo to get done against the Bombres at the G after a week of fire and brimstone, and then Freo to beat Cats in Perth.

Lions lose to Saints at Marvel and Pies at the G, as we know they don’t travel to Vic very well or consistently.

Cats to lose to Freo in Perth and Saints at Marvel.

Dogs to lose to Demons, who have been up and down.


All that happens and if we can win all games we can actually finish 2nd.

As I said, crazy.

To think that with 4 rounds to go, we can finish anywhere between 2nd and about 14th.

 

[KermitJagger]

Further to this, I am not sure I have seen a team that has been really good since our 3peat team. Definitely feels like the highs are less high when it comes to team quality. Perhaps a symptom of adding 2 teams to the comp and the talent dilution that comes with that, in addition to the equalisation measure.

I will say, this underrates the Richmond side a bit. They weren't quite as good as our threepeat side but that spine of Lynch, Riewoldt, Martin, Grimes, Rance was pretty phenomenal on its best day. They were the last side where you'd struggle to figure out where you'd get hold of them.

On paper the Geelong 2022 side was like this, but they were that old it read like a team that would have been winning flags in 2016. Shows how much talent had diluted when you could get together a team of the best talent from half a decade prior and win a flag.

 

[DogDaySonny]

Further to this, I am not sure I have seen a team that has been really good since our 3peat team. Definitely feels like the highs are less high when it comes to team quality. Perhaps a symptom of adding 2 teams to the comp and the talent dilution that comes with that, in addition to the equalisation measure.

I agree.

I think the spending caps (don’t forget non-player payments are capped a well) and the draft shenanigans have massively reduced the top end of the competition while producing almost no results in the bottom end. Even more so than talent dilution as the clubs’ ability to work the players they have is hamstrung, particularly clubs not like ours that don’t have a long legacy of off-field excellence and player development.

Additionally, I think the constant rule changes (both on paper and unofficially in interpretation and emphasis) coupled with the weekly MRO crapshoot have further undermined high performance by making “excellence” impossible to predict.

 

[scrim reaper]

I will say, this underrates the Richmond side a bit. They weren't quite as good as our threepeat side but that spine of Lynch, Riewoldt, Martin, Grimes, Rance was pretty phenomenal on its best day. They were the last side where you'd struggle to figure out where you'd get hold of them.

On paper the Geelong 2022 side was like this, but they were that old it read like a team that would have been winning flags in 2016. Shows how much talent had diluted when you could get together a team of the best talent from half a decade prior and win a flag.

It sounds really simple and obvious now but they were really the first to build their entire identity around manic pressure and forward half turnovers. I think it was less about the out and out quality of the players and more just a perfect game plan for the personnel.

Us falling off left a bit of a power vacuum and they filled it nicely with a somewhat revolutionary gameplan, everyone was trying to copy us and no one was prepared for that.

None of this is new info to anyone I know, I am just saying I give a lot more credit to that, which I guess would still be referred to as a really good team, I was more referring to having stars all over the park and being a clear class above skill wise.

I think 3 flags is overs for the actual quality of that team.

Plenty of respect for them though, in particular Riewoldt and especially Martin were great to watch.