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[Ichiro #51]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' October ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fourth Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

Thanks for compiling/posting these articles, much prefer to read them on here than going to other sites.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

In the event that we were able to get 10/11 from Richmond for a future first rounder, I'd love to see what we'd do there.

Assuming we'd go with a mid at 2 Lalor/O'Sullivan/Smith/Langford

Pick 10 a KP - Armstrong/J.Whitlock/Tauru/Shanahan

Pick 11 all-rounder or utility - Xavier Lindsay/Bo Allen/Taj Hotton/Tobie Travaglia

Re-jigged the senior list and Trade in a F3 to take one of the other KP's later on in the draft - Kayle Gerreyn, Tom Sims, Harry O'Farrell, Noah Mraz.

That would be an ideal scenario for us imo.

Could keep 10 and try to flip 11 back to somebody like GWS or the Swans if we can clear an extra list spot with their late multiples. 2 would be your FOS/Draper/Lalor type, 10 the best available/slider (hopefully Tauru) and then take two bites at some KPP stock late in the first round.

 

[My Left Foote]

You forgot to put our local ‘expert’ phantom Pravda Roo effort on there

Draft	ESPN Phantom OCT 23	Zero Hanger Phantom OCT 23	Chairman Pravda OCT 23
1	Richmond – Sam Lalor	Richmond – Finn O'Sullivan	Richmond – Will Ashcroft
2	North Melbourne – Alix Tauru	Brisbane (bid) – Levi Ashcroft	North Melbourne – Jagga Smith
3	Carlton – Finn O'Sullivan	North Melbourne – Sam Lalor	Carlton – Luke Trainor
4	Brisbane (bid) – Levi Ashcroft	Carlton – Jagga Smith	Adelaide – Joe Berry
5	Adelaide – Sid Draper	Adelaide – Sid Draper	Melbourne – Finn O'Sullivan
6	Melbourne – Harvey Langford	Melbourne – Harvey Langford	Richmond – Sid Draper
7	Richmond – Jagga Smith	Richmond – Murphy Reid	St Kilda – Harry Armstrong
8	Gold Coast (bid) – Leo Lombard	St Kilda – Josh Smillie	St Kilda – Sam Lalor
9	St Kilda – Josh Smillie	St Kilda – Harry Armstrong	Collingwood – Harvey Langford
10	St Kilda – Xavier Lindsay	Essendon (bid) – Isaac Kako	Richmond – Josh Smillie
11	Melbourne – Murphy Reid	Melbourne – Luke Trainor	Richmond – Kayle Gerreyn
12	Richmond – Tobie Travaglia	Richmond – Tobie Travaglia	West Coast – Bo Allan
13	Essendon (bid) – Isaac Kako	Richmond – Alix Tauru	Port Adelaide – Jack Whitlock
14	Richmond – Harry Armstrong	Gold Coast (bid) – Leo Lombard	Fremantle – Isaac Kako
15	West Coast – Bo Allan	West Coast – Bo Allan	GWS – Jonty Faull
16	Port Adelaide – Joe Berry	Port Adelaide – Cooper Hynes	GWS – Tom Gross
17	Fremantle – Taj Hotton	Fremantle – Taj Hotton	Western Bulldogs – Alex Dodson
18	GWS – Ollie Hanford	GWS – Xavier Lindsay	Richmond – Tom Sims
19	GWS – Jobe Shanahan	GWS – Jobe Shanahan	Sydney – Murphy Reid
20	Brisbane (bid) – Sam Marshall	Western Bulldogs – Alex Dodson	Richmond – Alix Taru
21	Western Bulldogs – Cooper Hynes	Richmond – Joe Berry	GWS – Oliver Hannaford
22	Richmond – Luke Trainor	Brisbane (bid) – Sam Marshall	Sydney – Taj Hotton
23	Sydney – Jack Whitlock	Sydney – Kayle Gerreyn	Richmond – Tobie Travaglia
24	Richmond – Alex Dodson	Richmond – Jonty Faull	West Coast (bid) – Malakai Champion
25	GWS – Matt Whitlock	GWS – Jack Whitlock	Gold Coast (bid) – Leo Lombard
26	Sydney – Hamish Davis	Sydney – Jesse Datoll	Richmond – Xavier Lindsay
27	St Kilda (bid) – Adrian Cole	Richmond – James Barat
28	Richmond – Jesse Dattoll

 

[Heaps of fun]

Draft	ESPN Phantom OCT 23	Zero Hanger Phantom OCT 23	Chairman Pravda OCT 23
1	Richmond – Sam Lalor	Richmond – Finn O'Sullivan	Richmond – Will Ashcroft
2	North Melbourne – Alix Tauru	Brisbane (bid) – Levi Ashcroft	North Melbourne – Jagga Smith
3	Carlton – Finn O'Sullivan	North Melbourne – Sam Lalor	Carlton – Luke Trainor
4	Brisbane (bid) – Levi Ashcroft	Carlton – Jagga Smith	Adelaide – Joe Berry
5	Adelaide – Sid Draper	Adelaide – Sid Draper	Melbourne – Finn O'Sullivan
6	Melbourne – Harvey Langford	Melbourne – Harvey Langford	Richmond – Sid Draper
7	Richmond – Jagga Smith	Richmond – Murphy Reid	St Kilda – Harry Armstrong
8	Gold Coast (bid) – Leo Lombard	St Kilda – Josh Smillie	St Kilda – Sam Lalor
9	St Kilda – Josh Smillie	St Kilda – Harry Armstrong	Collingwood – Harvey Langford
10	St Kilda – Xavier Lindsay	Essendon (bid) – Isaac Kako	Richmond – Josh Smillie
11	Melbourne – Murphy Reid	Melbourne – Luke Trainor	Richmond – Kayle Gerreyn
12	Richmond – Tobie Travaglia	Richmond – Tobie Travaglia	West Coast – Bo Allan
13	Essendon (bid) – Isaac Kako	Richmond – Alix Tauru	Port Adelaide – Jack Whitlock
14	Richmond – Harry Armstrong	Gold Coast (bid) – Leo Lombard	Fremantle – Isaac Kako
15	West Coast – Bo Allan	West Coast – Bo Allan	GWS – Jonty Faull
16	Port Adelaide – Joe Berry	Port Adelaide – Cooper Hynes	GWS – Tom Gross
17	Fremantle – Taj Hotton	Fremantle – Taj Hotton	Western Bulldogs – Alex Dodson
18	GWS – Ollie Hanford	GWS – Xavier Lindsay	Richmond – Tom Sims
19	GWS – Jobe Shanahan	GWS – Jobe Shanahan	Sydney – Murphy Reid
20	Brisbane (bid) – Sam Marshall	Western Bulldogs – Alex Dodson	Richmond – Alix Taru
21	Western Bulldogs – Cooper Hynes	Richmond – Joe Berry	GWS – Oliver Hannaford
22	Richmond – Luke Trainor	Brisbane (bid) – Sam Marshall	Sydney – Taj Hotton
23	Sydney – Jack Whitlock	Sydney – Kayle Gerreyn	Richmond – Tobie Travaglia
24	Richmond – Alex Dodson	Richmond – Jonty Faull	West Coast (bid) – Malakai Champion
25	GWS – Matt Whitlock	GWS – Jack Whitlock	Gold Coast (bid) – Leo Lombard
26	Sydney – Hamish Davis	Sydney – Jesse Datoll	Richmond – Xavier Lindsay
27	St Kilda (bid) – Adrian Cole	Richmond – James Barat
28	Richmond – Jesse Dattoll

 

[My Left Foote]

View attachment 2150365

Post of the Year.

 

[backtothedraft]

Could keep 10 and try to flip 11 back to somebody like GWS or the Swans if we can clear an extra list spot with their late multiples. 2 would be your FOS/Draper/Lalor type, 10 the best available/slider (hopefully Tauru) and then take two bites at some KPP stock late in the first round.

I just don’t understand how anyone could think that Richmond would trade both 10 + 11 for our F1. It’s just not happening.

 

[Sphynx]

I just don’t understand how anyone could think that Richmond would trade both 10 + 11 for our F1. It’s just not happening.

Only from the Jon Ralph school.

It's exactly what our F1 should be demanding, it's been a top 2 pick for 5 years.

We all expect something like 6+11 for pick 2, why would 10 + 11 be unrealistic for a pick projected in the same region?

In fact, you could say it's incorporating the discount for the future pick in it already.

I wouldn't trade our F1 for anything less than that deal.

It's only unrealistic because you are getting desensitized by all this chatter surround this draft strength and future pick malarkey, which happens as we lead into every draft.

Our F1 is one of the most valuable commodities anyone holds at the moment, just like Richmonds is, it should be valued accordingly.

 

[backtothedraft]

Only from the Jon Ralph school.

It's exactly what our F1 should be demanding, it's been a top 2 pick for 5 years.

We all expect something like 6+11 for pick 2, why would 10 + 11 be unrealistic for a pick projected in the same region?

In fact, you could say it's incorporating the discount for the future pick in it already.

I wouldn't trade our F1 for anything less than that deal.

What are some comparable deals historically where a club has traded a F1 pick for two picks in the first round?

 

[gustaaf]

I hope we can split #2, but only strictly on our terms. Some Richmond supporters clearly don't understand how important #2 would be to them to fully control who they get out of this year's supposed elite talents. I've even seen posts where they say that any of their picks 6, 10 and 11 shouldn't be involved in getting #2. After Freo and the Suns rolled out the welcome carpet for them during the trade period, they now think everyone will do that.

If we manage to get a good return for #2, I'd prefer us not to also use our F1 to get further first round picks, firstly because I don't think we can get reasonable value in return, and secondly because the top end of next year's draft is rumoured to be better than this year. I'm hopeful that we might be able to snare Willem Duursma in the 2025 draft to join up with Zane.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Currently 1 senior list spot available

Expect us to go 38-6 next year

I’d only keep one of the 3 and it would be moving coop to the rookie list

The 6 rookies Teakle, Payne, RHJ, Dawson, Maley and coop to get the last spot

Then gives us 3 ND picks, currently we only have 2 and 62

But would assume we get 3 decent picks and not have to use 62

Or worst case we use 2,62 and upgrade a rookie like (teakle/Finnbar) then select a rookie

This is all going to plan

 

[LB2Snake]

I hope we can split #2, but only strictly on our terms. Some Richmond supporters clearly don't understand how important #2 would be to them to fully control who they get out of this year's supposed elite talents. I've even seen posts where they say that their picks 6, 10 and 11 shouldn't be involved in getting #2. After Freo and the Suns rolled out the welcome carpet for them during the trade period, they now think everyone will do that.

If we manage to get a good return for #2, I'd prefer us not to also use our F1 to get further first round picks, firstly because I don't think we can get reasonable value in return, and secondly because the top end of next year's draft is rumoured to be better than this year. I'm hopeful that we might be able to snare Willem Duursma in the 2025 draft to join up with Zane.

Tiggers have just had the massive reach around from Dockers and Sun$, so they think they are entitled to everything.
I think a deal will get done that suits both parties, but I do feel it's us taking the risk, Tigers can lock in their favourite 2.

 

[Sphynx]

What are some comparable deals historically where a club has traded a F1 pick for two picks in the first round?

Why does there have to be a precedent?

Bottom 2 teams don’t tend to trade their future picks often, if ever. It’s stupidly risky for the most part.

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

I hope we can split #2, but only strictly on our terms. Some Richmond supporters clearly don't understand how important #2 would be to them to fully control who they get out of this year's supposed elite talents. I've even seen posts where they say that their picks 6, 10 and 11 shouldn't be involved in getting #2. After Freo and the Suns rolled out the welcome carpet for them during the trade period, they now think everyone will do that.

If we manage to get a good return for #2, I'd prefer us not to also use our F1 to get further first round picks, firstly because I don't think we can get reasonable value in return, and secondly because the top end of next year's draft is rumoured to be better than this year. I'm hopeful that we might be able to snare Willem Duursma in the 2025 draft to join up with Zane.

They simply won't get 2 without 6 being involved. The other picks are debatable.

 

[ohmygewd]

NM Out: #2 & #F2
NM In: #10, #11, #23.
RICH In: #2 & NM F2.
RICH Out: #10, #11 & #23

Personally don't like trading out F1 rather F2 to get back into this draft.
Picks 6 & 10 would be ideal for #2 but l think the Tiggers will want another top 10 pick before Saints 7 & 8 picks.
If this scenario plays out:
#10 - Allan/Lindsay.
#11 - Trainor/Tauru.
#23 - Gerreyn/Shanahan.

 

[King Corey]

The Nostradamus is on a hot streak and I'm going to reiterate my support for one of his calls - Josh Smillie.

I still think draft pundits are sleeping on this guy and people are overthinking him.

He might be big already but he's far from a chiseled, mature physique.

He can find the ball, he can use the ball. He's agile, smart and has plenty of scope for improvement in his frame, running and application.

One club will get him and be laughing about the steal in a few years. I hope it's us.

 

[backtothedraft]

Why does there have to be a precedent?

Bottom 2 teams don’t tend to trade their future picks often, if ever. It’s stupidly risky for the most part.

You’re exactly right. It’s the team trading into the draft with future picks that assumes all the risk. Trading our F1 for picks 10+11 has tigers taking on a lot of the risk. It seems consensus that we will be bad again next year? But what if we finish 14th or 15th by some miracle. When taking into account potential academy and father son talent at the top of next years draft this could hypothetically see the trade looking something like pick 6 for 10+11. That would be totally favourable to North Melbourne, and there is no way Richmond is going to enter into a deal where the outcome has any chance of favouring us, at least on paper. We’ve literally just come out of the trade period where we were tabling a deal centred around our F1 for pick 13, and now we’re expecting Richmond to give up two picks inside that just because it feels fair…

10+11 in this years draft are known commodities. You know what number the picks are and the players likely available. Individually those picks hold value as well, to the point where they are likely to be coveted by other teams who would be willing to trade there F1 for just one of those picks. Richmond have some many options with what they could potentially do with their draft hand they aren’t going to just bend over and do us a favour.

We also have to take into account the discussion around the draft pool. Whether it’s media sensationalism or not only time will tell, but it’s seems there confidence across the league in the quality of the draft pool this year.

The deals that you’ve been suggesting for both pick 2 and our F1 are great deals for us, and I hope we get them over the line. I am in a fortunate position that if I’m wrong I will be extremely pleased. Unfortunately for you I think that’s extremely unlikely.

 

[justroyal]

The Nostradamus is on a hot streak and I'm going to reiterate my support for one of his calls - Josh Smillie.

I still think draft pundits are sleeping on this guy and people are overthinking him.

He might be big already but he's far from a chiseled, mature physique.

He can find the ball, he can use the ball. He's agile, smart and has plenty of scope for improvement in his frame, running and application.

One club will get him and be laughing about the steal in a few years. I hope it's us.

I have him and Langford on par for that same write up

 

[chubbspeterson]

The Nostradamus is on a hot streak and I'm going to reiterate my support for one of his calls - Josh Smillie.

I still think draft pundits are sleeping on this guy and people are overthinking him.

He might be big already but he's far from a chiseled, mature physique.

He can find the ball, he can use the ball. He's agile, smart and has plenty of scope for improvement in his frame, running and application.

One club will get him and be laughing about the steal in a few years. I hope it's us.

He's definitely got the most upside with Lalor I think at becoming great. I wouldn't be upset if we took him, but my concerns are his kicking efficiency, lack of drive and competitiveness which don't exactly tick the Shinboner values we look for.

He tends to hover around packs and doesn't use his size/physicality yet to win contested ball like a few others do and he coasted this year and others like Draper/Jagga are far more driven and professional than Josh at this stage.
Then you see how physical and competitive Lalor is with his tackling and workrate, it stands out even more with Josh.
Even Langford has the strong work ethic to gut run both ways. Josh is a little lazy in that regard imo.

The positives Josh brings are the 194cm height and ability to move at that size, ability to play anywhere, he's pretty clean below his knees similar to Tom Greene, can hit some very elite kicks but it's inconsistent. There's room for growth in him.

 

[joegreen]

He's definitely got the most upside with Lalor I think at becoming great. I wouldn't be upset if we took him, but my concerns are his kicking efficiency, lack of drive and competitiveness which don't exactly tick the Shinboner values we look for.

He tends to hover around packs and doesn't use his size/physicality yet to win contested ball like a few others do and he coasted this year and others like Draper/Jagga are far more driven and professional than Josh at this stage.
Then you see how physical and competitive Lalor is with his tackling and workrate, it stands out even more with Josh.
Even Langford has the strong work ethic to gut run both ways. Josh is a little lazy in that regard imo.

The positives Josh brings are the 194cm height and ability to move at that size, ability to play anywhere, he's pretty clean below his knees similar to Tom Greene, can hit some very elite kicks but it's inconsistent. There's room for growth in him.

Maybe it was laconic, work ethic comments but Jack Watts came to mind when reading this!

 

[Wild Bill]

Why does there have to be a precedent?

Bottom 2 teams don’t tend to trade their future picks often, if ever. It’s stupidly risky for the most part.

100% - until we look like we can push for finals - or at least get out of the bottom 6 our future 1st should be off limits.

 

[My Left Foote]

NM Out: #2 & #F2
NM In: #10, #11, #23.
RICH In: #2 & NM F2.
RICH Out: #10, #11 & #23

Personally don't like trading out F1 rather F2 to get back into this draft.
Picks 6 & 10 would be ideal for #2 but l think the Tiggers will want another top 10 pick before Saints 7 & 8 picks.
If this scenario plays out:
#10 - Allan/Lindsay.
#11 - Trainor/Tauru.
#23 - Gerreyn/Shanahan.

Brady is on record as saying we’ll only slip back a few places if we split pick 2 if Tigers don’t want trade 6 we’ll keep pick 2 and use our F1 to try and get more picks in this draft.

 

[LB2Snake]

Brady is on record as saying we’ll only slip back a few places if we split pick 2 if Tigers don’t want trade 6 we’ll keep pick 2 and use our F1 to try and get more picks in this draft.

Pretty funny that “Don’t wanna trade pick 6”, but still want pick 2. I’m looking for a new ride at the minute, maybe I’ll offer the dealer half the money the car is advertised for, I’ll let ya know how I go.

 

[giantroo]

 

[perplexed]

Brady is on record as saying we’ll only slip back a few places if we split pick 2 if Tigers don’t want trade 6 we’ll keep pick 2 and use our F1 to try and get more picks in this draft.

If you are going to be that pedantic, wouldn't pick 6 be slipping back more than a few places?

 

[chubbspeterson]

Maybe it was laconic, work ethic comments but Jack Watts came to mind when reading this!

He's more talented than Jack Watts. I think it might be more a case he thinks that he's going top 5 so he doesn't really have to work that hard. I'm sure he's received plenty of feedback from coaches and AFL teams on it.