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What a time to be alive. They are 2 of the top 4 on Betfair now. I wish Paris was here to see this sh*t! David Hegan mentioned that Onesmoothoperator’s rating was so low that he should be carrying 48.5kg. Sea King also had the same rating leading into the Bendigo Cup.

Yeah I was just going through the runners trying to find where the speed will come from. Just Fine? Anyone else?

I’m not convinced Buckaroo will stay. In the Caulfield Cup, they really slowed down mid race which allowed him to conserve some energy. If the Melbourne Cup is a sit and sprint, he should win. But if it’s a proper staying test, I have my doubts.

I can’t believe the hype around SS in this thread. He finished 4 lengths behind JB despite having a 3 pound advantage. That is not “elite” form. He is no good, just like Saint George who was hyped to the moon in the Melbourne Cup thread.

But Illionois will still be slugged with a fairly hefty weight after that performance, no?

Just wondering why you rate Saint George so highly? Just looking at his Timeform figures is fairly underwhelming with a peak of 113 last year, which is a good 5-7 pounds below the likes of Middle Earth, Vauban & Grosvenor Square’s recent ratings. Would you be able to elaborate on what you see...

Thoughts on Crystal Black Jugada? Couldn’t resist taking 100/1 on Betfair. Not entirely sure if he’s coming though?

Lunar Flare drifting badly on Betfair this morning. Out to 50/1. Must be out of the cup now.

He’s carrying too much weight at the Caulfield Cup. Massive chance in the Cox, surely that is the play. Its likely they will follow the weather though and just head to the softest track.

Don’t shoot the messenger. That’s how racing handicapping has been for 100 years. That’s how ratings are calculated.

Not far off the mark. There would actually be 6.25 lengths at equal weights. Reduced to ~1 length now

10 pounds is only 4.5kg. And he’s getting a 4kg advantage. Might be closer than you think.

Of course RYA would get demolished by those horses at equal weights! No one is debating that. But now he gets a 4kg advantage, so the gap between them closes significantly.

We’ll see. Timeform only has 10 pounds between RW & Right You Are’s Underwood run. The numbers don’t lie. RW also only has 8 pounds over Soulcombe & 7 over Osipenko. I’d be very nervous taking the short odds on RW if I were you. RW is a bet in the Cox Plate, not the Turnbull.

RW is giving significant weight to some competitors. I think he’s poor value at $2.30. I took Right You Are each way at $19/$4.5 (best value in the race IMO) Soulcombe @ $9 Don’t mind Osipenko @ $7.8 They’re great value getting 4-5 lengths off RW at the weights.

are we sure WAF is even going to the Cup this year though? I found this from an article about a month ago: “While he will be entered for the Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington on November 7, Freedman said that race was unlikely to be on the gelding’s agenda after he finished 13th in it...

Did you watch his autumn campaign? He was dreadful. He also carried 6.5kg less than he should have the other day through some kind of loophole. I backed him on Saturday but give him no hope in the cup (unless there’s some kind of miracle turn around in form over the next 6 weeks). Pretty sure...

Fair enough. I like him a lot more at Caulfield but I’ve had a little speccy at 55/1. Who do you have on top now Paris? We need your power rankings update for last week. Everything looks dreadful, having a hard time finding any value

That’s what I thought. Just wondering why he has blown out to 55/1 on Betfair? Do you guys reckon he is a chance? I guess there is concern he won’t get 2 miles? Seems good value at the current price.

Anyone know if West Wind Blows will be running in the MC? Or he will only be running in the Caulfield Cup?

Valiant King going around tonight in the Paddy Power Stakes @ 1:30am

According to who? I would think he would carry 56 / 56.5

Deadset anything could win this year. Might be a year for a horse like Emissary / High Emocean to come out of nowhere. Probably the best time in history for some random plodder to win the cup

Thoughts on the horses at the top of the market like Soulcombe, Goldman, Lunar Flare anyone? Soulcombe looked pretty impressive yesterday, although not sure how MC relevant this race was.

Looking like another garbage edition again this year. I don’t rate any of the 3yo’s. Deauville Legend’s form last year was a good 6 lengths better than any of this current crop. Unless one of them jumps out of the ground in the next couple of months, I think the winner will be coming from elsewhere.

That’s a pretty ordinary bet. Sweet William has a Timeform rating of 110.. Which is about 9 lengths behind Vauban. Fwiw I’m on Adjuvant @ $16 in the ebor, who’s getting a 4 pound turnaround on sweet William

Paris, have you compiled your power rankings list yet? We need it!

Fair point. But he is supposed to have a 4kg weight allowance on the older horses. Which effectively puts his weight at 59kg. How many horses can overcome that kind of weight? Would he beat home any of last years trifecta who were all carrying 57kg? I’d say highly unlikely. Then again, maybe...

Mate you probably have more racing knowledge than anyone on this forum BUT I feel like someone needs to address the elephant in the room. You seem to be ignoring the massive weight DL has to carry. 55kg is an enormous weight for a Northern Hemisphere 3yo. Look at Cross Counter & Rekindling...