Racing Melbourne Cup Day 2022

[balmainforever]

Anyone who decides to say that they've backed the winner here with no previous mention of it on the board will be given a week holiday

 

[Suncraze]

Going to speck Makram in the MC.
Taking the Archer Stakes and MC double as needs to win to get in.
$258- 0.1U

 

[diggo1]

#1 DEAUVILLE LEGEND (Last week #1, Betfair $6.40) - #1 seed throughout and finally they have come for him in the fair. Looks close to a moral and fully expect him to jump sub $5 on the day.

Mate you probably have more racing knowledge than anyone on this forum BUT I feel like someone needs to address the elephant in the room. You seem to be ignoring the massive weight DL has to carry. 55kg is an enormous weight for a Northern Hemisphere 3yo. Look at Cross Counter & Rekindling.. they only carried 51kg & 51.5kg in their respective Cup wins. That means DL needs to run 7-8 lengths better than those horses just to equal them. I don’t think he’s that good.

Yes, you can make some discounts for a lack of a natural top weight this year (so everyone is carrying 1kg extra according to Greg Carpenter) and the competition is weaker this year. But.. it’s still a huge task and definitely doesn’t appear to be anything close to a “moral”. Thoughts?

 

[Howard Moon]

To be fair not many crew would be tuning in or paying any attention to the race. Jockey's, trainers, punters and everyone else involved will just want to be getting it over and done with so that they can enjoy the build up to the MC. Maybe I'm wrong but yeah a bit like the Everest. Yep great race and really enjoyed it but its got nothing on the Caulfield Cup let alone the MC. 90% of Aussies only bet once a year and it is on the MC. PVL can do anything he wants but nothing will ever change, not in my lifetime anyway

but but, sweet caroline!, everybody sung it drunk!

 

[iluvparis]

Mate you probably have more racing knowledge than anyone on this forum BUT I feel like someone needs to address the elephant in the room. You seem to be ignoring the massive weight DL has to carry. 55kg is an enormous weight for a Northern Hemisphere 3yo. Look at Cross Counter & Rekindling.. they only carried 51kg & 51.5kg in their respective Cup wins. That means DL needs to run 7-8 lengths better than those horses just to equal them. I don’t think he’s that good.

Yes, you can make some discounts for a lack of a natural top weight this year (so everyone is carrying 1kg extra according to Greg Carpenter) and the competition is weaker this year. But.. it’s still a huge task and definitely doesn’t appear to be anything close to a “moral”. Thoughts?

When the field is garbage it’s advantage the top weights. Look at the saddlecloth numbers of the trifecta last year and the top 4 in the weights in the Caulfield cup just ran second third and fourth.

It might matter if there were good progressive horses going around with 50-51 but there aren’t.

 

[year of the cat]

To be fair not many crew would be tuning in or paying any attention to the race. Jockey's, trainers, punters and everyone else involved will just want to be getting it over and done with so that they can enjoy the build up to the MC. Maybe I'm wrong but yeah a bit like the Everest. Yep great race and really enjoyed it but its got nothing on the Caulfield Cup let alone the MC. 90% of Aussies only bet once a year and it is on the MC. PVL can do anything he wants but nothing will ever change, not in my lifetime anyway

That wasn’t really the point of my post. It was to convey that the guy has no class. Sure he’s representing his patch of turf but he could have at least had the decency to turn up to a meeting that he was expected to attend.

 

[cruskits]

When the field is garbage it’s advantage the top weights. Look at the saddlecloth numbers of the trifecta last year and the top 4 in the weights in the Caulfield cup just ran second third and fourth.

It might matter if there were good progressive horses going around with 50-51 but there aren’t.

Yep what Paris said

2020
1st - 57kg
2nd - 57kg
3rd - 57kg
4th - 50kg

2020
1st - 55.5kg
2nd - 52.5kg
3rd - 54.5kg
4th - 53.5kg

2019 - 2016 (The NH 3YO period before RV adjusted weights)
1st -52kg
2nd - 54kg

1st - 51kg
2nd 55kg

1st - 51.5kg
2nd - 54.5kg

1st - 52kg
2nd - 54kg

2015 - POP
1st - 53kg
2nd 55kg

2014
1st - 56.5kg
2nd - 57kg
3rd - 55kg
4th - 51kg

2013
1st - 55kg
2nd - 56.5kg
3rd - 54kg
4th - 53.5kg

2012 - 2010
around 54.5kg

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Racing NSW will slot the inaugural $2m The Big Dance to be run about a half hour before the Melbourne Cup next Tuesday.

If there is a bigger stain on the great game than PVL I will give it away.

I agree. He has diluted the quality of horse and jockeys with these pop races and has no regard for history and tradition. However he is in is rights to do so as parochial NSW administrator. The quality of racing would be better if programming was done by an Australian Board rather state based club administrators.

The running of the Big dance 30 minutes before the cup is totally disrespectful and should not be allowed. Surely 150 years of tradition counts for something but what would you expect from Rugba leaguer.

 

[diggo1]

When the field is garbage it’s advantage the top weights. Look at the saddlecloth numbers of the trifecta last year and the top 4 in the weights in the Caulfield cup just ran second third and fourth.

It might matter if there were good progressive horses going around with 50-51 but there aren’t.

Fair point. But he is supposed to have a 4kg weight allowance on the older horses. Which effectively puts his weight at 59kg. How many horses can overcome that kind of weight? Would he beat home any of last years trifecta who were all carrying 57kg? I’d say highly unlikely.

Then again, maybe finishing 6 or 8 lengths behind last years top 3 is good enough to win this year? Who knows. $5.5 seems a bit skinny to find out though.

 

[iluvparis]

Fair point. But he is supposed to have a 4kg weight allowance on the older horses. Which effectively puts his weight at 59kg. How many horses can overcome that kind of weight? Would he beat home any of last years trifecta who were all carrying 57kg? I’d say highly unlikely.

Then again, maybe finishing 6 or 8 lengths behind last years top 3 is good enough to win this year? Who knows. $5.5 seems a bit skinny to find out though.

I think you nailed it with your second part - last years trifecta would be the top 3 in the market if they lined up here. And when you consider I reckon the current second fave is actually a $30 chance I see no issue in still backing him at $5.50.

 

[TBellicious]

Would Alegron get a penalty for the Melbourne Cup if he wins the "Archer" (Hotham) on Saturday?

 

[iluvparis]

Would Alegron get a penalty for the Melbourne Cup if he wins the "Archer" (Hotham) on Saturday?

Yes

 

[TBellicious]

Yes

Oh. Could be the coldest ride ever then.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Frankie riding Hosier in the Big Dance on the First Tuesday.

 

[plays tall 1]

JMc very positive about Loft this morning. Can’t say Loft’s form excites me on paper but German staying form shouldn’t be lightly discounted in a year with so few English and Irish imports and no Japanese. After all, German horses have won 2 Arcs and 2 Cups in the last 15 years. And Torquator Tasso was unlucky not to go back to back in the Arc this year.

 

[iluvparis]

JMc very positive about Loft this morning. Can’t say Loft’s form excites me on paper but German staying form shouldn’t be lightly discounted in a year with so few English and Irish imports and no Japanese. After all, German horses have won 2 Arcs and 2 Cups in the last 15 years. And Torquator Tasso was unlucky not to go back to back in the Arc this year.

JMac unlikely to get off and say its gone shit.

German form is no good - as evidenced by it getting rolled in Listed Grade at Chester when it finally came to a real jurisdiction. It is utter poison and I would be backing a ton of locals ahead of it at current prices. It is 100% the type of horse whose form has not stood up in Australia on countless occasions in recent years. The price is 100% down to the connections hyping it up.

 

[onthehill24]

JMac unlikely to get off and say its gone s**t.

German form is no good - as evidenced by it getting rolled in Listed Grade at Chester when it finally came to a real jurisdiction. It is utter poison and I would be backing a ton of locals ahead of it at current prices. It is 100% the type of horse whose form has not stood up in Australia on countless occasions in recent years. The price is 100% down to the connections hyping it up.

Gives us your market
In your humble opinion

 

[iluvparis]

Gives us your market
In your humble opinion

This would be my rough top of the market at the moment - i'd have Loft $31

 

[Bombers32]

I like the favourite too. But…..I’m very interested in Montefilia. I made the mistake last year of not thinking VE would run a strong 3200 and it‘s still fresh. At the 300 in the CC, Collett pulls her inside for a split second to look for luck up the middle and quickly changes his mind and takes her wide. She looks strong all the way through the line to me.

The 3200 is the obvious obstacle for many every year but I think she’s right in this.

I’ve been a lover of the sport since I backed Mighty Kingdom on track in 79 in the CC as a kid. I have a fraction of the knowledge on most here so I’d love to hear if anyone is penning her and strong that she won’t get 3200.

 

[iluvparis]

I like the favourite too. But…..I’m very interested in Montefilia. I made the mistake last year of not thinking VE would run a strong 3200 and it‘s still fresh. At the 300 in the CC, Collett pulls her inside for a split second to look for luck up the middle and quickly changes his mind and takes her wide. She looks strong all the way through the line to me.

The 3200 is the obvious obstacle for many every year but I think she’s right in this.

I’ve been a lover of the sport since I backed Mighty Kingdom on track in 79 in the CC as a kid. I have a fraction of the knowledge on most here so I’d love to hear if anyone is penning her and strong that she won’t get 3200.

I don't think she will get a strong 3200 but she might not have to if they run it slow enough. My guess is that if it is run at a proper tempo she won't see it out. But if they walk like they did in the CC she is in the race as a top chance.

 

[Jugada]

Would like to see a case for German form being any good without referencing TT or Protectionist. There are exceptions that bob up for most cases but overall as a whole the form is sub standard. The actual races Loft came through were horrendously weak and he was strongly favoured by track bias too

 

[plays tall 1]

Would like to see a case for German form being any good without referencing TT or Protectionist. There are exceptions that bob up for most cases but overall as a whole the form is sub standard. The actual races Loft came through were horrendously weak and he was strongly favoured by track bias too

Almandin - Melb Cup winner

Danedream - Arc winner

In Swoop - second in the Arc

Novellist - winner of King George II and QE Stakes (G1) and Grand Prix de Saint Cloud (G1)

Dschingis Secret - winner Prix Foy (G2)

Lucas Cranach - third in Melb Cup, winner of Peter Young Stakes (G2)

Altano - winner Prix Du Cadran (G1)

I agree that Loft’s form doesn’t appear as strong as Protectionist’s or Almandin’s but this is a weaker race. He gave the filly 10kgs at Chester, albeit there’s the age and sex allowances to account for. Her next effort was terrible but who knows she may have had issues. I expect Loft’s Chester run was primarily to maintain a level of fitness before quarantine.

Besides the Chester run, and since gelding, his form has been pretty good: 2 wins at G2 level (albeit not the strongest) and 2 defeats (second each time) by Aff Und Zo who looks pretty handy and hasn’t raced since.

Australian Bloodstock play a bit in Germany and Luke Murrell has said he’d be staggered if Loft runs top 10.

Interesting to see how Loft measures up.

 

[iluvparis]

Danedream and Lucas Cranach lel - if we are going that far back we might as well talk up Mexico firm given Phar Lap won there.

Australian Bloodstock play a lot in Germany and generally buy absolute slowies out of there that get beaten out of sight. Will be keen to back Loft in next years Big Dance though. Remember that other German thing they talked up that started single figures in Jameka's Caulfield Cup - this is the exact same thing.

 

[plays tall 1]

Danedream and Lucas Cranach lel - if we are going that far back we might as well talk up Mexico firm given Phar Lap won there.

Australian Bloodstock play a lot in Germany and generally buy absolute slowies out of there that get beaten out of sight. Will be keen to back Loft in next years Big Dance though. Remember that other German thing they talked up that started single figures in Jameka's Caulfield Cup - this is the exact same thing.

Danedream and Lucas Cranach was 2011 so it’s hardly ancient history. Incidentally Danedream beat So You Think by 5 and 3/4 lengths in the Arc. 11 years isn’t unreasonable if you want any sort of sample size.

Of course there have been numerous failures among the Germans that have come here but they have been vastly more successful proportionately in the Cup than English horses.

How many English horses have come to Australia in the last 30 years and for how many wins in the Cup? Let’s face it their record is abysmal. Irish horses are obviously a different matter entirely.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d have Deauville Legend on top at this stage but I’m keen to keep an open mind. The fact that JMc chose to ride this horse, and has raved about it after riding it, is significant. But each to their own.

 

[iluvparis]

I'm sorry mate but using decade old form to judge the quality of a racing jurisdiction is laughable. I can't believe you are getting sucked in just because J Mac chose to ride it. Be better. It is meaningless.

It's also $7 second fave! Surely you can see it has absolutely no merit being that price and should be avoided at all costs!

 

[plays tall 1]

I'm sorry mate but using decade old form to judge the quality of a racing jurisdiction is laughable. I can't believe you are getting sucked in just because J Mac chose to ride it. Be better. It is meaningless.

It's also $7 second fave! Surely you can see it has absolutely no merit being that price and should be avoided at all costs!

We’ll agree to disagree (again).

I trust you’ll be leaving it out of all lines of trifectas, F4s and quaddies