Racing Melbourne Cup 2023 ( no after the fact posts)

Melbourne Cup winner??

  • 2.ALENQUER(9) - Damien Oliver

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 8.RIGHT YOU ARE(15) - John Allen

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 13.OKITA SOUSHI(20) - Dylan Gibbons (a)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 14.SHERAZ(22) - Beau Mertens

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 16.MAGICAL LAGOON(7) - Mark Du Plessis

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 19.VIRTUOUS CIRCLE(6) - Craig Newitt

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 22.INTERPRETATION(17) - Teo Nugent

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 23.KALAPOUR(14) - Zac Lloyd (a)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    99
  • Poll closed .

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Post Caulfield Cup rankings

1A. GOLD TRIP - Really good run in the Caulfield Cup beating everything bar the winner heading this way comfortably. Expect Flemington to suit him a lot better and presume he meets WAF slightly better at the weights now heading there. Has the class and is already proven running out a strong 2 miles in the Melbourne Cup. All going to be weather dependent as to whether he is the top seed or not. If the track has give in it then it really improves his chances and puts the slows on his main rivals.

1B. WITHOUT A FIGHT - Brilliant winner of the Caulfield Cup. Had a couple lengths on Gold Trip and 5 lengths + on everything else heading this way so very hard to see anything else bar GT being able to turn the tables at Flemington. Technically he is unproven at the trip but with 2800m form in England the expectation is that shouldn't be a problem out here. His wheels don't spin on a wet surface though so if we have a soft track then its almost rule a line territory. Firm track though and he is the one to beat.

3. SOULCOMBE - Complete barrier rogue. Walked out 8 lengths behind them in the Caulfield Cup and ran really well considering. Made up good ground in that race through the 800-600 and was on the back of WAF and GT but then got crowded for a bit of room in the straight before plugging home reasonably. I think 2 miles at Flemington will suit him perfectly and that was a decent Cup trial all things considered but he is just consistently shit at the barriers and is just getting worse so no reason to think he wont miss the kick poorly at Flemington again and have to pass the whole field.

4. VAUBAN - Valiant King didn't exactly frank the form at Caulfield but he finished around these sort of horses and Vauban did beat him pretty comfortably by a couple lengths so would expect him to be in this sort of area still.

5. BREAKUP - Average at best Caulfield Cup run and he just didnt seem fast enough or good enough to sustain speed over 2400m. I expect the bigger Flemington track and the 2 miles to both be better suited for him but not by enough to be able to make up the difference on those already rated ahead of him.

Doesn't seem any point in going beyond this for winning chances for me. It was a strong Caulfield Cup and that is THE form race for Flemington with the other lead ups looking pretty lackluster. For the sake of looking deeper ill just round out the list with the best roughies for the back end of exotics.

ASHRUN - Currently $120 was one of the better runs out of the Bart Cummings. Off the scene for pretty much 2 years his first up run this prep was really good sitting 3WNC and getting beat 3.75L over 1700m. Backed that up in the Bart Cummings running on really well from last clocking the best last 800, 600 and 400 whilst giving away 5kg to the first two.

DAQUIANSWEET JUNIOR - Currently $101. As previously stated in this thread he is basically on the same prep as last year where he ran a credible 6th in the Cup and gets in nice and light in the weights. His 3200m form in this country is good and generally runs above market expectations when getting out to a trip so can see him running past some more tired horses at the end.

SPANISH MISSION - Currently $65. As said above he had been pegged as an out and out 2 miler since he got here and he has had 6 runs since that Spring for 5 goes at 2000m or less and one go at 2400m on a wet track which he doesn't go on. He is older, locally trained and had injuries so obviously not near his best but he has a lot more class potential than anything else in the dregs and his last start Turnbull 8th has a lot of merit crossing the line with most of these types.

VIRTUOUS CIRCLE - Currently $55. Had no luck in the Bart Cummings when running into traffic everywhere. Think he finishes considerably closer with luck and meets most of that field better of fat the weights should they meet again at Flemington.

MORE FELONS - Currently $300. For the plays tall believers. Yet to be seen but on his European form he isn't really any worse off than a lot of others also making up the numbers and he is a considerably better price than most of them. He will stay the 2 miles no problems and gets in light at the weights. For comparison he took on Absurde in the Ebor in their last race start before coming here and he was 14/1 vs 7/1 in that race carrying basically a kilo more and now meets him 3.5kg better off for a 3 length defeat in that race so I think id rather spec MF at 15x the price.


Trouble with a lot of the roughies though is they are on the day F4 add ons and if they run well before the Cup the odds will likely be gone and if they run like shit you probably dont want to be with them...
 
That’s a pretty ordinary bet. Sweet William has a Timeform rating of 110.. Which is about 9 lengths behind Vauban.

Fwiw I’m on Adjuvant @ $16 in the ebor, who’s getting a 4 pound turnaround on sweet William

Sure but on official ratings there is only 3 or 4 lengths between them and SW's rating will go up if it wins tonight

The main issue is the Ebor form (like the second tier handicap form Vauban has come through) is dogshit for the Melbourne Cup and its trained by Gosden who never coms.
 

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Tentative rankings at this stage.

1. Tower of London - Aiden's runner this year if he has one. Has to get here obviously but he has been put away for the Cup and undergoing all the vet stuff needed so can't do any more than that at this stage.

2. Silver Sonic - Another who has to get here obviously but is a very decent Japanese horse and the pick of the two possibly coming at level weights. Similar to an Admire Rakti or Stay Foolish type.

3. Without a Fight - Went around 12s in last year's Cup and has been super impressive here since showing a good turn of foot. Massive case of the Gold Trip's though with local trainers wanting to dodge the Cup for some insane reason.

4. Vauban - Going to be heavily weight dependant but brings in good second tier form that he is clearly better than and that form has held up well enough. No value left in the price though.

5. Saint George - Locally owned so will be here and brings in similar progressive 3yo form that has worked in the past. Will be locally trained though and will run again before the Cup so have to have ToL the #1 seed of the 3yos at the moment.

6. Breakup - The other Japanese runner that has to get here obviously but should be really suited to the 2 miles of Flemington. Hanshin Daishoten and Tenno Sho form is strong. Slightly below the quality of Silver Sonic though so weights will be interesting.

7. Valiant King - Another Euro 3yo with local connections who will be out here. Ascot form has held up. Ran well behind Vauban in the Ballyroan so will be interesting to see how he meets him at the weights from that rum.

8. Desert Hero - Decent Euro 3yo who should run well in the Leger so will get to see him again but is the one I have most doubts on actually coming of those that have mentioned the Cup.

9. Francesco Guardi - Good run in the Moonee Valley Cup last year and probably would have gone around at like 15s if they went to the Cup. Good first up run this prep.

10. Virtuous Circle - The best of last seasons staying 3yos for mine and at least has potential to become a Cups horse which I don't think many of the others have.
 
Looking like another garbage edition again this year. I don’t rate any of the 3yo’s. Deauville Legend’s form last year was a good 6 lengths better than any of this current crop. Unless one of them jumps out of the ground in the next couple of months, I think the winner will be coming from elsewhere.
 
So probably a good time to announce I will be moving behind the Great Firewall to the North for work in a couple of months so most likely won't even be around for the great race this year. Hence the lack of the usual power rankings.

Quick summary of my thoughts

WAF - shapes as this years WFA horse like the last two winners who goes around 20/1 when it should probs be close to fave -
Valiant King - seems the most likely of the 3yos to come to me and has good enough forward to feature

Japs

Silver Sonic - has elite form but I worry he is a marathon plodder and something will dash past him in the straight
Breakup - looks sharper than SS but I reckon there is a good chance that he is cooked

Others on Jug's list

Vauban - well known I think the form is fraudulent and is POI POI
TOL - obvious huge chance if lobbing but don't expect him to come
Saint George - will be cooked by local trainer before the day
Desert Hero - doubt Haggas actually comes
Francesco G - won't measure up just like the second tier hyped stayers never do
Virtuous C - couldn't win if it started now
 
So probably a good time to announce I will be moving behind the Great Firewall to the North for work in a couple of months so most likely won't even be around for the great race this year. Hence the lack of the usual power rankings.

Quick summary of my thoughts

WAF - shapes as this years WFA horse like the last two winners who goes around 20/1 when it should probs be close to fave -
Valiant King - seems the most likely of the 3yos to come to me and has good enough forward to feature

Japs

Silver Sonic - has elite form but I worry he is a marathon plodder and something will dash past him in the straight
Breakup - looks sharper than SS but I reckon there is a good chance that he is cooked

Others on Jug's list

Vauban - well known I think the form is fraudulent and is POI POI
TOL - obvious huge chance if lobbing but don't expect him to come
Saint George - will be cooked by local trainer before the day
Desert Hero - doubt Haggas actually comes
Francesco G - won't measure up just like the second tier hyped stayers never do
Virtuous C - couldn't win if it started now
Without A Fight does look a good chance to continue the recent dominance of horses up in the weights.

You say Valiant King has good enough form to feature but Vauban’s form is “poi poi”, but Vauban beat Valiant King last start by a length and a half, and gave him 4.5 kilos. Given the recent tendency of the handicapper to mark up the NH 3yos I suspect the weight difference between the two horses will be reduced in the Cup.
 
Without A Fight does look a good chance to continue the recent dominance of horses up in the weights.

You say Valiant King has good enough form to feature but Vauban’s form is “poi poi”, but Vauban beat Valiant King last start by a length and a half, and gave him 4.5 kilos. Given the recent tendency of the handicapper to mark up the NH 3yos I suspect the weight difference between the two horses will be reduced in the Cup.

Valiant King hardly has the resume of Deauville Legend - I expect him to basically be sneaking in on the minimum. If he gets the DL treatment then he is no chance.
 

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So probably a good time to announce I will be moving behind the Great Firewall to the North for work in a couple of months so most likely won't even be around for the great race this year. Hence the lack of the usual power rankings.

Quick summary of my thoughts

WAF - shapes as this years WFA horse like the last two winners who goes around 20/1 when it should probs be close to fave -
Valiant King - seems the most likely of the 3yos to come to me and has good enough forward to feature

Japs

Silver Sonic - has elite form but I worry he is a marathon plodder and something will dash past him in the straight
Breakup - looks sharper than SS but I reckon there is a good chance that he is cooked

Others on Jug's list

Vauban - well known I think the form is fraudulent and is POI POI
TOL - obvious huge chance if lobbing but don't expect him to come
Saint George - will be cooked by local trainer before the day
Desert Hero - doubt Haggas actually comes
Francesco G - won't measure up just like the second tier hyped stayers never do
Virtuous C - couldn't win if it started now
Luv your work paris
All the best for the venture
Do you know if any betting sites still do cups double charts betting ?
 
Luv your work paris
All the best for the venture
Do you know if any betting sites still do cups double charts betting ?

Doubt it. Most would just offer the multi double if at all
 
Thoughts on the horses at the top of the market like Soulcombe, Goldman, Lunar Flare anyone?

Soulcombe looked pretty impressive yesterday, although not sure how MC relevant this race was.
 
Deadset anything could win this year. Might be a year for a horse like Emissary / High Emocean to come out of nowhere. Probably the best time in history for some random plodder to win the cup
 
Thoughts on the horses at the top of the market like Soulcombe, Goldman, Lunar Flare anyone?

Soulcombe looked pretty impressive yesterday, although not sure how MC relevant this race was.

All have absolutely none. Soulcombe beat the D graders yesterday.
 
Soulcombe had enough chances during the Autumn to show he had Cup level ability and was just middling.

Lunar Flare is well and truly exposed as a second and third tier stayer.

Goldman is a pass for me. Off season staying form is consistently not good enough. If he was like 100-1 you could take a punt on a horse like him
 

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Racing Melbourne Cup 2023 ( no after the fact posts)

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