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Whoops, all fixed now.

Right, and I do my best to make Squiggle accurate, but it's very far from infallible! Squiggle gets things wrong all the time. I'm just happy if it gets fewer things wrong than most people. And this stuff is all probablistic, anyway. Squiggle thinks Hawthorn are less likely to have a good...

I started tracking this in 2019, because I suspected the answer was "almost always." Preseason ladder predictions in the media can be really wild, and only rarely did anyone ever go back and check how they held up. Unfortunately we only got in one regular year before the massive disruption of...

Yeah, you have to be a bit careful about what those predicted ladders are actually saying. There is some explanation on AFL Projected Ladder - Squiggle under "About Ladder Projections," but one common issue is that all teams' predicted wins drift towards the middle, with top teams showing...

I just use AFL Player Ratings Pts - I don't have my own system. And yes, players do lose ratings pts if they haven't played for a while.

You're going to hate me, but Richmond: So far -- can change with new injuries & I haven't done praccy match results yet -- off-season improvement looks roughly like this: Tons: Richmond, Carlton Plenty: West Coast, Fremantle, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Adelaide Some: St Kilda, Essendon...

Squiggle does (attempt to) account for ins & outs, both week to week and over the off-season, but you're 100% right that there are a whole bunch of factors it doesn't account for. And a new coach is a big one! A model is never going to be very good at predicting how well a team will go under a...

Sure, but equally you can ask why in the middle of those games, the Hawks also lost to Adelaide (in Melbourne), or got done by 10 goals by Freo in Tassie. Logically, it doesn't make much sense that you can beat a good team, then, with better players, lose to a worse team, yet it happens all the...

Gotta say I side with the humans on this one. As per the above post, Squiggle's in-house model is the most pessimistic of all models on Hawthorn, tipping them for 16th, and as far as I know it's also the only one that tries to measure off-season list changes. I have Hawthorn's off-season like...

Most of the models up and running so far are pretty grim on Freo: This is mostly because of, as you say, crap percentage and winning close games, but also because of how the Dockers fell off towards the end of the year. Percentage is often a better indicator of underlying team performance...

It is now! Thanks for the reminder. Yes. It's not adjusted for fewer games, but that wouldn't make much difference.

This seems like a motivated question, coming from an Adelaide supporter. But it's a good chance to talk about probability, so: What you're looking at is the projection if the favourite (according to Squiggle) wins every game. This is not a smart way to do it, because as we all know, favourites...

Ooh yeah. That's the good stuff. I told you posting on BigFooty all the time wasn't a total waste, honey.

Oh wow, how about that. So this is a pretty weird game and a similarly weird outcome, but for the purposes of transparency, what's happening here is: 1. Richmond's familiarity advantage with the MCG was eroded by spending most of 2020 on the road. Even this year, the Tigers have played at the...

North Melbourne are no longer the worst team in the league! That's now Adelaide. But the Roos are still most likely to finish 18th.

I just posted this on https://squiggle.com.au, thought it might be of interest to people who follow this thread: --- If you do one thing each day that has a 99% survival rate, you’ll likely be dead in under ten weeks. If boarding a plane had a 99% survival rate, a typical flight would end by...

Heh, yes, I use Wellington when the venue is unknown because it assigns both teams zero home ground advantage. Until this year, we almost never had a game fixtured without a venue, so it was a quick hack... now I should fix it properly, to avoid frightening people.

Turns out things can also go to shit real quick if you keep losing.

Well, they're basically the same, on both counts: the Dogs are only a teensy bit ahead of Melbourne in their defensive rating, and it's 995 Points Against to 991. So call 'em even. Squiggle does factor in opposition scoring power, yes, and location, although not that some grounds are...

Goddammit. :sadv1:

Fremantle 2015 are actually my all-time favourite example of this phenomenon. They won the minor premiership off the back of 7 wins from 8 close games, then the next year corrected all the way down to 16th. Hawthorn are a good example too, because they displayed either extreme in consecutive...

The article was written in mid-2016, when as I'm sure you recall Hawthorn were on a much-feared quest for their fourth straight flag. The Hawks weren't playing especially well, but they did keep flopping over the line in close games. So the common wisdom emerged that "good teams win the close...

We can look at a particular year you're interested in, if you like. Broadly speaking, though... There can be a pretty big difference between a team's actual ladder position and the one they "deserved," in a totally fair universe. One of the best ways to predict who will rise or fall the next...

Now this is the kind of content I come here for

It sure does! The problem with that analysis though is it comes in two forms: (1) The one you do before the season, which everyone is very interested in, but because it relies on assumptions about who will have strong/weak double-up games, tends to be pretty wrong (2) The one you do after the...

That's a minor thing that annoys me about life; people say "No but 'man' in a gender-neutral sense" when they obviously just didn't expect any women in that role.

You'd complain about both teams having 22 home games a year.

Richmond are all set up to do a Hawthorn 2016 / Sydney 2017 and be the team that everyone talks up despite their mediocre record, until suddenly they drop a semi-final and it's all over. This year is about Melbourne, Brisbane, Geelong, and the Dogs. The latter are the hardest to pick, and the...

I hear you, and you would have paid a lot more attention to Buckley than me. It might not be fair, but what fans want from a coach is improvement. We're happy with not winning the flag so long as things seem to be moving in the right direction. So, yeah, a coach who takes over a flag team is on...

I like Buckley, but you can't ignore his trend line. Everyone would be a lot happier with the Buckley years if they were in reverse order: Starts with a bottom-4 team. 2nd year: Jumps into 8th and wins a final. 3rd year: Makes top 4. 4th year: Grand Final, almost wins the flag. 5th...