I love Geelong getting a home ground advantage over Richmond at the mcg. Does this signify Richmond’s fall from Grace at their fortress?
Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)
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SJ
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Is the circle that would envelope these teams the smallest it has been for some time?
- Aug 18, 2009
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Oh wow, how about that.
So this is a pretty weird game and a similarly weird outcome, but for the purposes of transparency, what's happening here is:
1. Richmond's familiarity advantage with the MCG was eroded by spending most of 2020 on the road. Even this year, the Tigers have played at the MCG just eight times compared to Geelong's five - so that's more often, but not by much. The Tigers are still rated as having about twice as much venue familiarity with the MCG as Geelong, but that's not as much as usual.
2. A lot of the normal benefits Richmond receive from playing at the MCG are scaled down or zeroed out in the model because of COVID. The current model scales up home advantage based on factors that predict crowd numbers/passion, including: number of members, home game status, whether opposition fans can easily get in, and whether the game is in a football-dominant state. But for crowdless games, these are not relevant.
3. The model includes a nominal bonus for being the home team.
So the third one is tipping it into a +0.3 bonus to the Cats. Which is less than a point, so, you know, effectively zero.
tazaa
Hall of Famer
North are now ranked higher than both Hawthorn and Adelaide.
We lost Cunnington for the year though so Im guessing the spoon is ours which means Horne.
Wonder how squiggle will rate the wooden spooner in 2022?
Squiggle has made it to the big time:
Dr Tigris
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This is awesome. Some form of informed analysis in the desert of the AFL media
- Aug 18, 2009
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Ooh yeah. That's the good stuff.
I told you posting on BigFooty all the time wasn't a total waste, honey.
Dr Tigris
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You're famous now.
Well, OK you are already a pretty famous writer. But the Squiggle is on another level.
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
So the squiggle predicts the 5th best team Port Adelaide to fluke their way to the GF based solely off of home field advantage before choking in the biggest margin of the entire finals series on GF day.
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This seems like a motivated question, coming from an Adelaide supporter. But it's a good chance to talk about probability, so:
What you're looking at is the projection if the favourite (according to Squiggle) wins every game. This is not a smart way to do it, because as we all know, favourites lose pretty often.
Once you start stringing together even a few conditional probabilities, the odds of them all being correct drop fast. For example, based on current odds, the favourites this weekend are Port, Sydney, Melbourne, and the Bulldogs. But the chance of all four winning is only 11%. It's much more likely that two favourites will win and two will lose.
"Which team do you think will win each game?" and "How many of those tips do you think will be right?" are two very different questions, with serious implications for forecasting.
Things are especially precarious during finals, where teams are often closely matched, and a small home advantage becomes a significant point of difference. So models tend to tip the home team a lot (and predict close games) just because there isn't much to separate the competitors.
A better way to do ladder/finals predictions is to account for the (high) probability that some of your tips will be wrong. I originally created Flagpole for this (which currently has Melbourne 1st and Port 5th), but a better way, which most models use, is simulations.
- Aug 18, 2009
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It is now! Thanks for the reminder.
Yes. It's not adjusted for fewer games, but that wouldn't make much difference.
Gysberts2Bate
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Interesting to track our squiggle movement this year. Was very slow going at the start of the year because we were struggling to score, but has exploded since R23 with +11.33 in attach and +7.07 in defence
cryptor
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Most notably made a Superman logo midseason. The sign was there.
Vooligan
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Please eliminate three
Dirty Bird
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There seems to be a glitch in your sliding doors atm
ie. No matter what, the GF ends up being Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
live.squiggle.com.au
Despite going out in straight sets, and the Bulldogs losing the semi-final, it still has them in the GF.
Or better yet
Squiggle 2021
3rd place Melbourne lose the Grand Final to 14th placed Bulldogs.
ie. No matter what, the GF ends up being Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
Squiggle 2024
live.squiggle.com.au
Despite going out in straight sets, and the Bulldogs losing the semi-final, it still has them in the GF.
Or better yet
Squiggle 2021
3rd place Melbourne lose the Grand Final to 14th placed Bulldogs.
00Stinger
100 - 7
At scoring % of inside 50's conceded
But to be fair that is a bit misleading as our game plan was always to make teams kick long into the 50 where they were out manned
Gysberts2Bate
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According to Squiggle yes - in recent times
Blackas87
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Which is part of the defensive structure
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Fixtures out, Hurry up so i can play with my Squiggle 
cryptor
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You’ll go blindFixtures out, Hurry up so i can play with my Squiggle
Squiggle hates Freo, as I understand it's because of our crap percentage and winning games we shouldn't etc last year, then we lost Cerra so that can't be great for ins/outs
Does it take into account our injury list this year compared to previous years or will that be in the weekly ins/out calcs
Also our accuracy was dogshit last year did it factor that in when it rates us so poorly? does squiggle just expect us to kick like 8.16 every week now or is it a clean slate each year and it just rates us as low scoring?
Does it take into account our injury list this year compared to previous years or will that be in the weekly ins/out calcs
Also our accuracy was dogshit last year did it factor that in when it rates us so poorly? does squiggle just expect us to kick like 8.16 every week now or is it a clean slate each year and it just rates us as low scoring?
Most people are massively overrating Freo. Freo haven't beaten a good side in a long time. There's this assumption that you're going to make the leap this year, it might happen but at this stage you could just as easily fall back down the ladder.
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