Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[HairyO]

Maybe Final Siren has a model on how his model performs against media predictions?

THAT is a model I would check out !!

 

[HairyO]

I started tracking this in 2019, because I suspected the answer was "almost always." Preseason ladder predictions in the media can be really wild, and only rarely did anyone ever go back and check how they held up.

Unfortunately we only got in one regular year before the massive disruption of 2020, where the fixture completely changed one round after the season started. And 2021 wasn't back to normal, either, with most of the fixture yet to be written at the start of the year. That meant models couldn't calculate which teams had easier/harder draws - or, in 2020, calculated it from a fixture that wasn't used in practice.

But in 2019, Squiggle's preseason ladder prediction was better than 29 out of 30 media ladders (details here). In 2020, it was better than 21 out of 38 media ladders (details here). In 2021, it was better than 19 out of 25 media ladders (details here).

I'm pretty sure at least a couple of these media types check the models, too! So their predictions are actually not completely independent.

So if COVID buggered off you'd be doing a pretty decent job.

 

[TheUnicorn]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Melbourne	21	1	0	131.7%
2.	Gold Coast	18	4	0	131.2%
3.	Port Adelaide	18	4	0	120.6%
4.	Brisbane Lions	17	5	0	121.9%
5.	Western Bulldogs	17	5	0	117.4%
6.	Sydney	16	6	0	110.6%
7.	GWS	14	8	0	109.2%
8.	Richmond	14	8	0	104.6%
9.	Essendon	9	13	0	94.9%
10.	Geelong	8	14	0	94.9%
11.	St Kilda	8	14	0	91.5%
12.	Fremantle	8	14	0	91.4%
13.	Collingwood	6	16	0	84.2%
14.	West Coast	6	16	0	83.6%
15.	Adelaide	5	17	0	89.0%
16.	Hawthorn	5	17	0	84.2%
17.	Carlton	4	18	0	83.5%
18.	North Melbourne	4	18	0	80.6%

This was kinda fun

 

[Billy ray]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Melbourne	21	1	0	131.7%
2.	Gold Coast	18	4	0	131.2%
3.	Port Adelaide	18	4	0	120.6%
4.	Brisbane Lions	17	5	0	121.9%
5.	Western Bulldogs	17	5	0	117.4%
6.	Sydney	16	6	0	110.6%
7.	GWS	14	8	0	109.2%
8.	Richmond	14	8	0	104.6%
9.	Essendon	9	13	0	94.9%
10.	Geelong	8	14	0	94.9%
11.	St Kilda	8	14	0	91.5%
12.	Fremantle	8	14	0	91.4%
13.	Collingwood	6	16	0	84.2%
14.	West Coast	6	16	0	83.6%
15.	Adelaide	5	17	0	89.0%
16.	Hawthorn	5	17	0	84.2%
17.	Carlton	4	18	0	83.5%
18.	North Melbourne	4	18	0	80.6%

QF1: MELBOURNE v Brisbane Lions
QF2: GOLD COAST v Port Adelaide
EF1: WESTERN BULLDOGS v Richmond
EF2: SYDNEY v GWS

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Western Bulldogs
SF2: Port Adelaide v SYDNEY

PF1: MELBOURNE v Sydney
PF2: GOLD COAST v Brisbane Lions

GF: Melbourne v GOLD COAST


Finals added.
B E L I E F

 

[Ricky90]

Apologise if this has been asked before but I can't find anything using search function.

Does anyone know of any similar utilities to Squiggle but for the NRL?

 

[AFLGlicko]

Apologise if this has been asked before but I can't find anything using search function.

Does anyone know of any similar utilities to Squiggle but for the NRL?

PythagoNRL is the well-known one. The Cruncher who is on Squiggle is primarily an NRL modeler/fan.

 

[Ricky90]

PythagoNRL is the well-known one. The Cruncher who is on Squiggle is primarily an NRL modeler/fan.

Thanks so much!

 

[Pessimistic]

Squig really liking Geelong at 1/4 time round 1

 

[Wosh]

What’s the latest squiggle say?

 

[Chaisa]

How come the Squiggle hasn’t updated for the recent round?

 

[Andonis1997]

How come the Squiggle hasn’t updated for the recent round?

Has Carlton broken squiggle?

 

[Final Siren]

How come the Squiggle hasn’t updated for the recent round?

Whoops, all fixed now.

 

[KissKiss]

Early days but Squiggle is loving what Carlton is doing

 

[Blue1980]

Early days but Squiggle is loving what Carlton is doing

I don’t think we’ve ever been close to squiggle since maybe 2011? Maybe first 3 games of 2012?

 

[TheUnicorn]

I never noticed this part before, Pretty kewl.

 

[Pessimistic]

Cant work out where port are in the same place as hawthorn on the graph

 

[Roobs321]

Eagles now 0.00% chance for top 4 and 67% chance for bottom 2.

Squiggle remembers how crap we were late last year

 

[tonygeeks]

Freo as usual the loneliest little squiggle of all , we’ve even lost our only friend Collingwood


Sent from my iPad using BigFooty.com

 

[Pessimistic]

Freo as usual the loneliest little squiggle of all , we’ve even lost our only friend Collingwood


Sent from my iPad using BigFooty.com

Even when every team in in the defensive divide, freo take it to much more extreme

 

[Hobbes]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Melbourne	21	1	0	131.7%
2.	Gold Coast	18	4	0	131.2%
3.	Port Adelaide	18	4	0	120.6%
4.	Brisbane Lions	17	5	0	121.9%
5.	Western Bulldogs	17	5	0	117.4%
6.	Sydney	16	6	0	110.6%
7.	GWS	14	8	0	109.2%
8.	Richmond	14	8	0	104.6%
9.	Essendon	9	13	0	94.9%
10.	Geelong	8	14	0	94.9%
11.	St Kilda	8	14	0	91.5%
12.	Fremantle	8	14	0	91.4%
13.	Collingwood	6	16	0	84.2%
14.	West Coast	6	16	0	83.6%
15.	Adelaide	5	17	0	89.0%
16.	Hawthorn	5	17	0	84.2%
17.	Carlton	4	18	0	83.5%
18.	North Melbourne	4	18	0	80.6%

QF1: MELBOURNE v Brisbane Lions
QF2: GOLD COAST v Port Adelaide
EF1: WESTERN BULLDOGS v Richmond
EF2: SYDNEY v GWS

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Western Bulldogs
SF2: Port Adelaide v SYDNEY

PF1: MELBOURNE v Sydney
PF2: GOLD COAST v Brisbane Lions

GF: Melbourne v GOLD COAST


Finals added.
B E L I E F

Does this set some kind of record in being proven wrong by round 5, as Port lost their fifth match?

 

[Pessimistic]

Squiggle still has port in the peloton, in front of teams which have performed significantly better.

But lose to port-squiggle Writes you off

 

[magic_johnson!]

Brisbane, Fremantle and Geelong all tied on the flagpole to one decimal point.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Is Geelong a tad overrated by the squiggle at the moment?

 

[freo_leo29]

Is Geelong a tad overrated by the squiggle at the moment?

Could be

Freo is definitely, got a juicy bump by smashing Eagles before the squiggle rated them bad, same for GWS (who the cats also got a nice bump from)

Both teams will probably even out over the season

 

[Billy ray]

I’m enjoying my SUNS squiggle movement.