Opinion 13 Premierships Shared Between Just 4 Teams in the Last 17 years

[demondavey]

Free agency does not help as despite what the AFL said would happen about bad clubs making godfather offers to the best players and getting them what we have actually had is players like Lynch, Frawley, Lake, Cameron and a host of others go from bad clubs to the best clubs, making the bad clubs worse and the best clubs even better.

Pretty much. It’s more the movement of players from the expansion clubs to the big Victorian clubs. Hopper, Taranto, Lynch, Prestia, Cameron etc. Any concept of equalisation is as thin as piss, we’ve had a piss poor Gold Coast, and GWS only making one GF and a couple of PF. The AFL has parachuted in Hardwick for a last ditch effort to save them, with a premiership probably the only thing that might make retirees discuss something other than golf ball deals at their local clubhouse.

All that’s happened in the last 12 years since the expansion clubs came in is that Victorian clubs have become a lot stronger. From 2016 onwards, the following have left the expansion clubs and gone on to play in Victorian club flags;

Tom Boyd
Jacob Townsend
Josh Caddy
Dion Prestia
Tom Lynch
Steven May
Jeremy Cameron
Will Hoskin Elliott
Bobby Hill

That’s not to mention the players that didn’t play in premierships and have taken up their careers elsewhere with success.

All that’s happened is these clubs have just fed players back into Victoria for probably not much in return. Definitely not a good result for the game and definitely not good to see yet another Victorian club winning a flag. Next year we really need to see a non Victorian side winning. I’d hope GWS, Brisbane, Sydney or Port could lift it up.

 

[Caligo]

Free agency does not help as despite what the AFL said would happen about bad clubs making godfather offers to the best players and getting them what we have actually had is players like Lynch, Frawley, Lake, Cameron and a host of others go from bad clubs to the best clubs, making the bad clubs worse and the best clubs even better.

Lake also wasn't a free agent.

 

[Shane Heard]

Look at the end of 2013 when he left for the Swans, Sydney won a premiership in 2012 and were still a very good team in 2013. In 2014 we finished the H&A season on top of the table.

Yeah but let’s talk about Plugger and getting Roos to coach and other sweet deals set up for Swans by the AFL commission.

 

[DanielLaneDC]

The biggest problem for me around the idea of "each club should win a premiership every 18 years because there are 18 clubs" is that good teams, once they become good, don't typically disappear overnight. If you've got a list that's contending, there's a good likelihood that they'll be around the right ages to maintain their contention for a window. And if every club is sliding those windows across yet only one team can win every year, it's quite likely that we'll have plenty of clubs who don't win it despite them being in their expected timeframe and having a window.

With an example: Let's say it's a magical world of mathematically scheduled parity and each club gets a window every 18 years on time and windows last for, say, 4 years. And then let's pick winners from amongst the teams in their window to exenuate the point:

In the window: Team 1 - Premiership: Team 1
In the window: Team 1, 2 - Premiership: Team 1
In the window: Team 1, 2, 3 - Premiership: Team 1
In the window: Team 1, 2, 3, 4 - Premiership: Team 1
In the window: Team 2, 3, 4, 5 - Premiership: Team 5
In the window: Team 3, 4, 5, 6 - Premiership: Team 5
In the window: Team 4, 5, 6, 7 - Premiership: Team 5
In the window: Team 5, 6, 7, 8 - Premiership: Team 5
In the window: Team 6, 7, 8, 9 - Premiership: Team 9
In the window: Team 7, 8, 9, 10 - Premiership: Team 9
In the window: Team 8, 9, 10, 11 - Premiership: Team 9
In the window: Team 9, 10, 11, 12 - Premiership: Team 9
In the window: Team 10, 11, 12, 13 - Premiership: Team 13
In the window: Team 11, 12, 13, 14 - Premiership: Team 13
In the window: Team 12, 13, 14, 15 - Premiership: Team 13
In the window: Team 13, 14, 15, 16 - Premiership: Team 13
In the window: Team 14, 15, 16, 17 - Premiership: Team 17
In the window: Team 15, 16, 17, 18 - Premiership: Team 17

All 18 teams got their 4 year window, but it still could have been that only 5 different teams ever won it. It's quite easy to see how we could still end up with only 8 teams winning it in the real world even if there was routinely scheduled parity.

So, the number of teams winning premierships in a given window is simply not a good measure of parity.

 

[My Tilly]

Bomber gives a great insight into the Ottens era in this long interview from the other week.

I watched that.
Anything with Bomber Thompson is always brilliant. One of the most underrated, and I think underappreciated coaches of all time. Always thought outside the box. Peculiar, eccentric footballer/coach.

I did not realize how much the whole Essendon saga drained out of him. Sad to see. Met Bomber a couple of times. Would always stop for anybody if they came up to him for a chat.
Can see why he was such a good leader of young people.

 

[Caligo]

Yeah but let’s talk about Plugger and getting Roos to coach and other sweet deals set up for Swans by the AFL commission.

And Hall

 

[RUNVS]

Yeah but let’s talk about Plugger and getting Roos to coach and other sweet deals set up for Swans by the AFL commission.

Do you know what you are talking about? Roos was the temporary coach after Eade was sacked. It was only because the Swans fan base rallied that Swans management back down from signing Terry Wallace and instead signed Roos. The AFL had nothing to do with it.

If you are going to make assertions at least try and make it so they are not super easy to be proven false.

 

[Shane Heard]

Pretty much. It’s more the movement of players from the expansion clubs to the big Victorian clubs. Hopper, Taranto, Lynch, Prestia, Cameron etc. Any concept of equalisation is as thin as piss, we’ve had a piss poor Gold Coast, and GWS only making one GF and a couple of PF. The AFL has parachuted in Hardwick for a last ditch effort to save them, with a premiership probably the only thing that might make retirees discuss something other than golf ball deals at their local clubhouse.

All that’s happened in the last 12 years since the expansion clubs came in is that Victorian clubs have become a lot stronger. From 2016 onwards, the following have left the expansion clubs and gone on to play in Victorian club flags;

Tom Boyd
Jacob Townsend
Josh Caddy
Dion Prestia
Tom Lynch
Steven May
Jeremy Cameron
Will Hoskin Elliott
Bobby Hill

That’s not to mention the players that didn’t play in premierships and have taken up their careers elsewhere with success.

All that’s happened is these clubs have just fed players back into Victoria for probably not much in return. Definitely not a good result for the game and definitely not good to see yet another Victorian club winning a flag. Next year we really need to see a non Victorian side winning. I’d hope GWS, Brisbane, Sydney or Port could lift it up.

Why do we “need to see it” ?

So many carry on about a National competition and in the next breath complain that Vic clubs are winning flags.

Doesn’t matter who you are …if you win a flag it’s from nothing but hard work and a team effort and good administration and a decent coach.

 

[Shane Heard]

And Hall

Yes indeed..that’s a big one I forgot.

And oh yeah …how the AFL orchestrated the not guilty verdict to let the psychopath play in that GF

 

[Shane Heard]

Do you know what you are talking about? Roos was the temporary coach after Eade was sacked. It was only because the Swans fan base rallied that Swans management back down from signing Terry Wallace and instead signed Roos. The AFL had nothing to do with it.

If you are going to make assertions at least try and make it so they are not super easy to be proven false.

Ummm…you do know that the swans are owned by the AFL commission.

They paid Roos. Roos coached because he liked the very good coin on offer.

 

[RUNVS]

Why do we “need to see it” ?

So many carry on about a National competition and in the next breath complain that Vic clubs are winning flags.

Doesn’t matter who you are …if you win a flag it’s from nothing but hard work and a team effort and good administration and a decent coach.

So I take it you believe Gina Rhinehart has worked much harder than almost any Australian in modern history?

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Pretty much. It’s more the movement of players from the expansion clubs to the big Victorian clubs. Hopper, Taranto, Lynch, Prestia, Cameron etc. Any concept of equalisation is as thin as piss, we’ve had a piss poor Gold Coast, and GWS only making one GF and a couple of PF. The AFL has parachuted in Hardwick for a last ditch effort to save them, with a premiership probably the only thing that might make retirees discuss something other than golf ball deals at their local clubhouse.

All that’s happened in the last 12 years since the expansion clubs came in is that Victorian clubs have become a lot stronger. From 2016 onwards, the following have left the expansion clubs and gone on to play in Victorian club flags;

Tom Boyd
Jacob Townsend
Josh Caddy
Dion Prestia
Tom Lynch
Steven May
Jeremy Cameron
Will Hoskin Elliott
Bobby Hill

That’s not to mention the players that didn’t play in premierships and have taken up their careers elsewhere with success.

All that’s happened is these clubs have just fed players back into Victoria for probably not much in return. Definitely not a good result for the game and definitely not good to see yet another Victorian club winning a flag. Next year we really need to see a non Victorian side winning. I’d hope GWS, Brisbane, Sydney or Port could lift it up.

Thats not gonna happen anytime soon infact the mid-season trade strengthens the heartland clubs further.

Guess where the best player on the ground came from today? yep Expansion club.

GWS and GCS have contributed massively to Richmond and Geelong flags.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Ummm…you do know that the swans are owned by the AFL commission.

They paid Roos. Roos coached because he liked the very good coin on offer.

No mate you're wrong there Wallace was seal and delivered to Sydney before a massive moment from supporters demanded Roos.

We had to pay Wallace for his inconvenience.

 

[Shane Heard]

So I take it you believe Gina Rhinehart has worked much harder than almost any Australian in modern history?

What’s that evil cow got to do with anything?

 

[aj1992]

I see you ignored the biggest free agent of them all, because he didn't fit your narrative?

Dangerfield?

 

[catstorm]

You guys know Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

wasn’t a free agent signing right? Geelong had to trade for him.

 

[Caligo]

You guys know Jeremy Cameron wasn’t a free agent signing right? Geelong had to trade for him.

Danger too obviously. But FA probably did play a role in both of them getting to Geelong.

 

[Shane Heard]

Thats not gonna happen anytime soon infact the mid-season trade strengthens the heartland clubs further.

Guess where the best player on the ground came from today? yep Expansion club.

GWS and GCS have contributed massively to Richmond and Geelong flags.

Hill comes from WA ..from the crappiest country town in WA no less.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Hill comes from WA ..from the crappiest country town in WA no less.

And? he requested a trade from GWS.

 

[aj1992]

Danger too obviously. But FA probably did play a role in both of them getting to Geelong.

At the conclusion of the 2015 season, he announced his intention to pursue his rights as a free agent to return to live in his hometown of Moggs Creek just outside Geelong.[41] He was officially traded to the Geelong Football Club in October

Free Agent.

 

[catstorm]

Danger too obviously. But FA probably did play a role in both of them getting to Geelong.

No I don’t think so more the threat of the Pre season draft. Geelong made a contract GWS matched at that point Geelong needs to satisfy GWS in trade or Cameron would need to go to the draft.

Which Geelong wouldn’t let happen and GWS wouldn’t let happen, once GWS matched free agency became irrelevant.

 

[RUNVS]

What’s that evil cow got to do with anything?

You seemed to believe that success always equals talent and effort. That means since Rinehart has the most money she must put in the most effort and have the most talent.

 

[Shane Heard]

And? he requested a trade from GWS.

Because he wanted to play in Melbourne and Toby was the star with no room for a lightweight small forward trying to get better at league level.

That’s not his fault.

 

[Shane Heard]

You seemed to believe that success always equals talent and effort. That means since Rinehart has the most money she must put in the most effort and have the most talent.

Righto …

Time for you to put the bottle away for the night me thinks

 

[Caligo]

No I don’t think so more the threat of the Pre season draft. Geelong made a contract GWS matched at that point Geelong needs to satisfy GWS in trade or Cameron would need to go to the draft.

Which Geelong wouldn’t let happen and GWS wouldn’t let happen, once GWS matched free agency became irrelevant.

I think there was extra pressure on Adelaide and GWS due to the nature of free agency and the expectation that players needed to get where they wanted to go.

I suppose I am really arguing that it was "the vibe", but it is how I feel.

Today I think it is different (all players seem to think they are freer to move than ever before, even without being a FA or even out of contract).

I predict that trend will only continue to grow.