NFL (19/20) Super Bowl LIV: Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

[LicoriceAllsorts]

also remember when the manning colts went into the playoffs as one of the worst defenses and yet somehow in the playoffs they managed to thwart all the offenses that had the edge on the D based on metrics...colts won the supee bowl

Except both defences and both offences are good

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

I'll drop more juicy nuggets from the Football Outsiders preview. All that above was from the GOAT Warren Sharp...

 

[aussiedude]

Most of the stats are season long stats which come playoffs are BS. teams improve over the season and also get worse in some areas.

If the Chiefs were a bottom 5 team against the run, shouldnt Henry have done more against them in the AFC CG.

 

[Exe Gesis]

It only points to both teams putting up points and points. My pick is 9ers 37-34 so far.

It's only evidence of why these teams are playing in this game, and why they will see the same success they've had this year in this game

both fairly unstoppable Os, but one teams D will figure a way out to stop a key aspect of the opposing O

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Most of the stats are season long stats which come playoffs are BS. teams improve over the season and also get worse in some areas.

If the Chiefs were a bottom 5 team against the run, shouldnt Henry have done more against them in the AFC CG.

Not even on the same level as San Francisco

Tennessee were killing them in the first half... then for some reason go away from what was working in the 2nd half. Why only 1 of 18 2nd half passing attempts were PA from under centre? Makes no sense at all

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

both fairly unstoppable Os, but one teams D will figure a way out to stop a key aspect of the opposing O

I doubt it. The difference will be the lack of KC's run game and eventually they'll make like 1 mistake.

San Fran is the more explosive, more versatile, and better offence. They are going to put themselves in better positions to succeed. Bosa or Ford will make at least 1 play to ultimately change the game. OR... San Fran will have too much offensive control and manage the clock perfectly for a late FG win (I'm leaning towards the 2nd one)

 

[Exe Gesis]

If the Chiefs were a bottom 5 team against the run, shouldnt Henry have done more against them in the AFC CG.

exactly...the chiefs figured something out about the titans run, and came up with something to stop it despite people thinking they wouldnt/couldnt.

in the playoffs, especially the super bowl, its all a clean slate as coordinators on the day come up with a whole tailored plan...one teams plan will work and one wont.

this super bowl more than any in recent memory, is incredibly hard to predict

 

[aussiedude]

Not even on the same level as San Francisco

Tennessee were killing them in the first half... then for some reason go away from what was working in the 2nd half. Why only 1 of 18 2nd half passing attempts were PA from under centre? Makes no sense at all

You cant run 50 times a game when the scores are close all game.

The 9ers D need to find a way to slow down the KC O and get Mahomes out of his comfort zone.
the KC D need to put the game in Jimmy G's hands and wait for a mistake.

Dont get beat by what you know.

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Garoppolo will go lights out if need be

 

[Bomberboyokay]

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

I'll drop more juicy nuggets from the Football Outsiders preview. All that above was from the GOAT Warren Sharp...

Just a suggestion...instead of 8 brief posts of stats in 15 mins, how about you collate all in one post?! That’s analytics at work right there!!

 

[samFFC]

Not a 'stat' per se, but 538 has KC at 63% to win which are juicy odds given it's essential pick 'em in the betting lines.
And even from the pre-season they've been a little more bullish on San Fran than most (28% to make playoffs pre-season).

 

[GreyCrow]

Just a suggestion...instead of 8 brief posts of stats in 15 mins, how about you collate all in one post?! That’s analytics at work right there!!

Post count more important than analytics

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Just a suggestion...instead of 8 brief posts of stats in 15 mins, how about you collate all in one post?! That’s analytics at work right there!!

no

 

[rumply]

do we instead use football-based acumen to figure out a winner? and if so, whats the key football-based intel?

If we acknowledge this game will most probably become a shootout, who do you want throwing the ball? The guy that has zero post season interceptions & a bunch of td's or the other guy who hasn't been allowed to throw it too much for (in part) the real fear he'll turn it over?

Yeah I know where my money goes.

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

If we acknowledge this game will most probably become a shootout, who do you want throwing the ball? The guy that has zero post season interceptions & a bunch of td's or the other guy who hasn't been allowed to throw it too much for (in part) the real fear he'll turn it over?

Yeah I know where my money goes.

My money goes to the most explosive offense in the league (San Franciso)

 

[rumply]

ftfy

My money goes to the most explosive regular season offense in the league (San Franciso)

Patrick Mahomes has more pass yards (209) and pass touchdowns (five) in the second quarter of two playoff games than Jimmy Garoppolo (208 yards, one touchdown) has in two complete games this postseason.

 

[Exe Gesis]

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

ftfy

Garoppolo would've thrown for 400 yds and 5 TDs against Green Bay if that was the goal. He didn't have to because he can sit back and let his team do it for him. Mahomes doesn't have that luxury.

No QB is more successful and more efficient than Garoppolo this year at completing 20+yd passes

 

[rumply]

Garoppolo would've thrown for 400 yds and 5 TDs against Green Bay if that was the goal. He didn't have to because he can sit back and let his team do it for him. Mahomes doesn't have that luxury.

No QB is more successful and more efficient than Garoppolo this year at completing 20+yd passes

Well I guess we'll find out shortly if 'his team' allows Jimmy to put his feet up yet again.

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Well I guess we'll find out shortly if 'his team' allows Jimmy to put his feet up yet again.

To an extent yes. But it doesn't really matter because he'll just do it himself if he has to

 

[Exe Gesis]

Kittle has been sorely under/non-utilized in the playoffs I reckon Niners might figure the Chiefs go all out to stop the run and deliberately gameplan from the start to be pass-heavy with Kittle as focus...lots of play-action. Cant afford to just drop back given Chiefs pass-rushers

 

[rumply]

To an extent yes. But it doesn't really matter because he'll just do it himself if he has to

Maybe but that will almost certainly involve a pick or two should he have to go that route, chasing down a handy Chiefs lead. And as we've seen in past superbowls, one defensive play can be all that it takes, all that is needed.

 

[Kram]

I almost forgt about this game every year when you have to wait 2 weeks for it.

 

[fuey]

Just a suggestion...instead of 8 brief posts of stats in 15 mins, how about you collate all in one post?! That’s analytics at work right there!!

The more stats you quote, the smarter you come across!

I think the Chiefs D will surprise us, Chiefs are going to win this easy.