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You might love this video on it thenClearly someone is...
Yes, me, cos I liked the post...
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
NFL (19/20) Super Bowl LIV: Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers
- Thread starter Exe Gesis
- Start date
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That guy sucks. Pseudo intellectual
I go to a pub with a few mates every year. Been to a different place every year though since SB51 it must have been. It's actually hard to find a decent place in my city.
Last year we rock up and the place is supposed to have Bud buckets for $20 and buffalo wings for whatever price. Order a beer and their order of Buds haven't rocked up yet. Swear they only ordered like 3 or 4 cartons because they were gone before the half. 9 mins left in the 2nd qtr and my mate goes to order wings and they're sold out.. joke lol.
- Feb 25, 2013
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Please explain. He works for several NFL teams. Wins in Vegas, etc.
TheGreatBarryB
Hall of Famer
Chiefs guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif has a medical degree. Good article on SI from a few years ago
www.si.com
Heal Thyself
At the beginning of every week last fall Laurent Duvernay-Tardif sorted through his schedule. Medical school rotations, hours in the lab and overnight shifts
www.si.com
Exe Gesis
Kylo was here
- Sep 6, 2005
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[NFL Research] Mahomes will play in his first #SuperBowl this Sunday, but he's already posting the best numbers of the Super Bowl 𝙚𝙧𝙖. He has the most pass YPG (302.9), best TD-INT ratio (87-18) & highest passer rating (109.6) of any QB w/ 1,000+ pass att in the Super Bowl era, incl playoffs
Exe Gesis
Kylo was here
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SuperBowl Records and Facts You Never Knew 2019/2020 Edition
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Exe Gesis
Kylo was here
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The Four Possible Outcomes of the Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl
With the ultimate football nerd matchup coming on Sunday, it’s time to forecast the different ways the Andy Reid vs. Kyle Shanahan bowl could turn out
www.theringer.com
Just a douche
- Feb 25, 2013
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He does seem like it on twitter. But watching him on podcasts he's completely different. You wouldn't even know it's the same person. He's ability to predict whether a game goes O/U is next level
Exe Gesis
Kylo was here
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what this indicates is Reid treating it like any other game, players loose and relaxed, no big speeches etc about the magnitude of it all.
Whereas Shanahan has gone the complete opposite.
The former method often is the better one. The latter has seen big letdowns on SB day.
- Jan 7, 2018
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It was a good game to bet on, The Australian media was heavy on the Broncos and that pushed the Seahawks over $2 on sportsbet.
I always thought the Seahawks were the favourites.
Yeah good for him. I've only heard him on Pardon My Take and just didn't really like him. Definitely on the spectrum (not that that's not ok just an observation)
Do you really think the minimal Australian betting coverage would sway odds like that?
- Jan 7, 2018
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For an Australian online betting company? Yes.
Both teams started at around the same odds and the Australian media was heavy on the Broncos as the sure thing.
I saw it happen with the 2014 AFL grand final, The media heavily influenced the Swans short odds for that game.
- Feb 25, 2013
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Biggest factors for me are Chiefs on 1st/2nd down, and Garoppolo throwing on 1st/2nd down.
Chiefs mic their coverages on early downs, but when playing zone play virtually only cover 3. They've been succesful but Garoppolo has been elite facing cover 3 on early downs. 1st in YPA, 2nd in success rating, a passer rating of 120, and a 9/2 TD/INT ratio. That is a tipping point. These two fronts are ranked #1 and #2 rushing the passer on 3rd downs, and this is why early down success is going to be so crucial, in order to avoid 3rd down situations where the pass rush can take over. Furthermore, KC are 2-3 this year when losing the early down success rate battle. San Francisco rank 13th in offensive EDSR, and the Chiefs 5th, however the 49ers pass D ranks 1st, and the Chiefs D 28th against the run. If Garoppolo has success it will go a long way to a 9ers win (obviously).
However, if the Chiefs also have early down success, then they'll be putting up points all night long. I do expect this for a few reasons. First of all, San Francisco has 0 sacks this year against plays with pre snap motion. Reid loves using pre snap motion, and although his numbers this season were much lower in comparison to last season, he's ramped it up for the playoffs. The general design of many of KC's plays, with the deep vertical routes also favours them against the cover 3 press bail that San Fran runs. Surprisingly, the 9ers D rank 32nd in red zone success rate allowed against 11 personnel. The Chiefs are the #1 most successful offence in 11 personnel this year. The 9ers also rank 31st in sack rate inside their own 40 yd line. It's going to take a performance sent from hell by the 9ers D line to stop the Chiefs offence. Von Miller did note that Eric Fisher struggles against power rushes. He thought that Bosa could have some success. Another thing to watch there.
Back to the 9ers offence. This team runs 21 personnel more than any team in the league. The Chiefs are the 5th worst defence against 21. This set allows the 9ers to run a lot of PA passes, and particularly from under centre with the FB in the backfield. They use pre snap motion more than any other team (70%), and the Chiefs are the worst run D in the league against pre snap motion. Off of this is the PA passing game as I noted. This is a weakness for the Chiefs defence, and the 9ers are a top 3 offence here.
I notoriously hate high scoring games. But with these coaches and QB's, it's just going to happen. The Chiefs ST's make this an absolute flip of the coin. The last team with the ball who has a realistic chance of scoring will absolutely win the game IMO. Reid has been known for poor clock management, and questionable decision making late in big games. Shanahan has been known for being too aggressive at one particular point. After being criticised following SB51 he said the biggest lesson he learnt was that a 25 point lead isn't enough. This man isn't going to go conservative at any point. And any Garopplo haters saying run after run is being conservative to protect Garoppolo are stupid. If you're running for 8 yards a clip you don't go away from that. Shanahan will have his foot on the gas all night long in this one, and I trust him a touch more than Reid.
SF: r3. - 14 - 10 - 10 - 37
KC: 10 -[7. - ,3r - 14 - 34
Chiefs mic their coverages on early downs, but when playing zone play virtually only cover 3. They've been succesful but Garoppolo has been elite facing cover 3 on early downs. 1st in YPA, 2nd in success rating, a passer rating of 120, and a 9/2 TD/INT ratio. That is a tipping point. These two fronts are ranked #1 and #2 rushing the passer on 3rd downs, and this is why early down success is going to be so crucial, in order to avoid 3rd down situations where the pass rush can take over. Furthermore, KC are 2-3 this year when losing the early down success rate battle. San Francisco rank 13th in offensive EDSR, and the Chiefs 5th, however the 49ers pass D ranks 1st, and the Chiefs D 28th against the run. If Garoppolo has success it will go a long way to a 9ers win (obviously).
However, if the Chiefs also have early down success, then they'll be putting up points all night long. I do expect this for a few reasons. First of all, San Francisco has 0 sacks this year against plays with pre snap motion. Reid loves using pre snap motion, and although his numbers this season were much lower in comparison to last season, he's ramped it up for the playoffs. The general design of many of KC's plays, with the deep vertical routes also favours them against the cover 3 press bail that San Fran runs. Surprisingly, the 9ers D rank 32nd in red zone success rate allowed against 11 personnel. The Chiefs are the #1 most successful offence in 11 personnel this year. The 9ers also rank 31st in sack rate inside their own 40 yd line. It's going to take a performance sent from hell by the 9ers D line to stop the Chiefs offence. Von Miller did note that Eric Fisher struggles against power rushes. He thought that Bosa could have some success. Another thing to watch there.
Back to the 9ers offence. This team runs 21 personnel more than any team in the league. The Chiefs are the 5th worst defence against 21. This set allows the 9ers to run a lot of PA passes, and particularly from under centre with the FB in the backfield. They use pre snap motion more than any other team (70%), and the Chiefs are the worst run D in the league against pre snap motion. Off of this is the PA passing game as I noted. This is a weakness for the Chiefs defence, and the 9ers are a top 3 offence here.
I notoriously hate high scoring games. But with these coaches and QB's, it's just going to happen. The Chiefs ST's make this an absolute flip of the coin. The last team with the ball who has a realistic chance of scoring will absolutely win the game IMO. Reid has been known for poor clock management, and questionable decision making late in big games. Shanahan has been known for being too aggressive at one particular point. After being criticised following SB51 he said the biggest lesson he learnt was that a 25 point lead isn't enough. This man isn't going to go conservative at any point. And any Garopplo haters saying run after run is being conservative to protect Garoppolo are stupid. If you're running for 8 yards a clip you don't go away from that. Shanahan will have his foot on the gas all night long in this one, and I trust him a touch more than Reid.
SF: r3. - 14 - 10 - 10 - 37
KC: 10 -[7. - ,3r - 14 - 34
A11dAtP0w3R
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Our betting companies only reflect the money and odds that are thrown around in Vegas generally. The NFL is getting more popular but it's still somewhat of a niche market for the most part, nothing close to the money bet on AFL. Not to mention how gutless the bookies over here, generally they won't take big bets from the winning heavy hitters like they do in Vegas.
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
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I agree with all your thoughts and have a similar scoreline.
A11dAtP0w3R
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Can't wait for how shocked the Jimmah haters will be when he goes for 350 yards and 4 TDs tomorrow. " that performance came out of nowhere" ...
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