2007 Melbourne Cup Thread

[starz]

They had the same opportunity in the Turnbull (level terms) where Zipping was a bit too good for El segundo.
They didn't in the Cox Plate.
Sethlad was telling everyone all year Zipping can't stay, so once again you're off the mark.
The only other time they met in the Cox Plate it was over with the barriers with el Segundo getting a 8-10 length start.

Ricketts, the no work early theory is flawed.
The REASON Zipping and Marasco were at the tail is they drew the widest, ok?

B Graders in the McKinnon? The lineup is the same as the Cox Plate, this is an A Grade group 1 WFA race (Cox Plate part 2) on a fairer track.
Yes bigger things in mind for MC runners but a good race all the same and a few points to prove.

 

[starz]

- Scorpion has been withdrawn due to injury while Glen Boss is unable to ride Princess Coup, veteran jockey Noel Harris picks up the ride.

 

[sethlad]

Sethlad was telling everyone all year Zipping can't stay, so once again proven woefully off the mark.

Rubbish again,at least tell the truth & dont twist my words.
I said he's a Danehill & IMO they dont win over 2 miles.
Did he win over 2 miles last year? No!

I actually said he should have run in the CC,that was his level.
Again,he's a stayer...even the owner now knows this
But of course,you know better.

seth

 

[Ricketts]

Ricketts, the no work early theory is flawed.
The REASON Zipping and Marasco were at the tail is they drew the widest, ok?

Obviously. It still meant they used zero energy for the first half of the race and even then any tailenders can pass the tired ones going backwards.

B Graders in the McKinnon? The lineup is the same as the Cox Plate, this is an A Grade group 1 WFA race (Cox Plate part 2) on a fairer track.

8th again then.

 

[starz]

Rubbish again,at least tell the truth & dont twist my words.
I said he's a Danehill & IMO they dont win over 2 miles.
Did he win over 2 miles last year? No!

I actually said he should have run in the CC,that was his level.
Again,he's a stayer...even the owner now knows this
But of course,you know better.

seth

Last year Pop rock, DB and MB didn't draw barrier 22 nor did they have jarred feet going into the race.
You said he can't run out a Melbourne cup and point to his pedigree, but again you fail to understand pedigree and completely overlook the dam side, results and the bloodline of Danehill winning 3 of the last 4 Melbourne cups.

 

[sethlad]

Excuse.....Excuse...Excuse
12 months & still waiting.

The irony of you talking about pedigrees
3 out of the last 4......you are hilarious
You wouldnt know a good cross even if you were nailed to it

seth

 

[starz]

Obviously. It still meant they used zero energy for the first half of the race and even then any tailenders can pass the tired ones going backwards.

8th again then.

They used the same energy as the rest of the field but that's just the cards they were dealt. Eighth is highly unlikely, we can only hope the market agrees with you.

Anyone looking to bet on Zipping for the Cup, do it now before the McKinnon. you can't get 20/1 or 15/1 anymore that's long gone, could be single figures soon.

 

[starz]

OPENING TAB ODDS
Description Win Place
POP ROCK. $10.00 $3.25
EFFICIENT. $13.00 $4.00
DELTA BLUES. $15.00 $4.50
FIUMICINO. $15.00 $4.50
YEATS. $15.00 $4.50
MAYBE BETTER. $17.00 $5.00
TAWQEET. $17.00 $5.00
TOSHO KNIGHT. $17.00 $5.00
ZIPPING. $17.00 $5.00
TUESDAY JOY. $26.00 $7.25
VIVA PATACA. $26.00 $7.25
BELLAMY CAY. $31.00 $8.50
BLUE MONDAY. $31.00 $8.50
BLUTIGEROO. $31.00 $8.50
EMPIRES CHOICE. $31.00 $8.50
ESKIMO QUEEN. $31.00 $8.50
LEICA FALCON. $31.00 $8.50
MALDIVIAN. $31.00 $8.50
POMPEII RULER. $31.00 $8.50
SCORPION. $31.00 $8.50
SKY CONQUEROR. $31.00 $8.50
SPHENOPHYTA. $31.00 $8.50
FALSTAFF. $41.00 $11.00
GALLIC. $41.00 $11.00
LAZER SHARP. $41.00 $11.00
MAHLER. $41.00 $11.00
MARSH SIDE. $41.00 $11.00
MISS FINLAND. $41.00 $11.00

TAB ODDS 16/9
Description Win Place
EFFICIENT. $6.50 $2.37
MAYBE BETTER. $9.00 $3.00
YEATS. $9.00 $3.00
ZIPPING. $11.00 $3.50
ESKIMO QUEEN. $13.00 $4.00
MASTER OREILLY. $13.00 $4.00
SCORPION. $13.00 $4.00
SEPTIMUS. $13.00 $4.00
MISS FINLAND. $15.00 $4.50
PURPLE MOON. $15.00 $4.50
SIRMIONE. $17.00 $5.00
BLUTIGEROO. $26.00 $7.25
TAWQEET. $26.00 $7.25
ICE CHARIOT. $31.00 $8.50
LEICA FALCON. $31.00 $8.50
CHOLULA. $41.00 $11.00
GALLIC. $41.00 $11.00
MALDIVIAN. $41.00 $11.00
TACIT AGREEMENT.$41.00 $11.00
BAUER. $51.00 $13.50
BELLAMY CAY. $51.00 $13.50
BLACK TOM. $51.00 $13.50
BLUE MONDAY. $51.00 $13.50
DRACS BACK. $51.00 $13.50
LAZER SHARP. $51.00 $13.50
MAHLER. $51.00 $13.50
TUBULAR BELLS. $51.00 $13.50
BLESSED. $61.00 $16.00
MARSH SIDE. $61.00 $16.00
NEW GUINEA. $61.00 $16.00
ON A JEUNE. $61.00 $16.00
RAILINGS. $61.00 $16.00
SKY CONQUEROR. $61.00 $16.00


TAB Odds 30/10
Description Win
MASTER OREILLY $4.80
PURPLE MOON $7.00
MAHLER $9.00
MISS FINLAND $11.00
ZIPPING $11.00
GALLIC $13.00
EFFICIENT $15.00
MAYBE BETTER $15.00
ESKIMO QUEEN $18.00
PRINCESS COUP $18.00
BLUE MONDAY $21.00
ON A JEUNE $21.00
TAWQEET $21.00
DOURO VALLEY $26.00
THE FUZZ $26.00
LAZER SHARP $31.00
TUNGSTEN STRIKE $31.00
BLUTIGEROO $41.00
DOLPHIN JO $61.00
SCENIC SHOT $81.00
SIRMIONE $81.00
ZAVITE $81.00
BLACK TOM $101.00
MANDELA $101.00
SARRERA $101.00
ANNENKOV $151.00
DESERT MASTER $151.00
KING OF ASHFORD $151.00
PACINO $151.00
RAILINGS $151.00
BAY STORY $301.00
BEST BEWARE $301.00

 

[- PC -]

Lets get back on track guys...this bickering is starting to annoy me ...it also has the potential to keep once a year punters away from this board

I think this years trifecta will be small as to me it seems not many genuine chances can place

Black Tom? Give me a break

Maybe Better
MOR
On A Jeune*
Zipping
Efficient
Princess Coup
Purple Moon
Eskimo Queen

I think Miss Finland has run out of puff


Anyway some more random thoughts from me and I am starting to love On A Jeune

 

[haywood jablome]

When are the acceptances announced? It will be interesting to see what weight horses get. I am going to laugh so hard if Zipping draws the carpark We will have to endure more shit coming out of starz mouth.

 

[littlejack]

I am going to laugh so hard if Zipping draws the carpark We will have to endure more shit coming out of starz mouth.

We will get more shit coming from starz mouth regardless!!!!!

I have followed his posts and he talks complete garbage, you could imagine the pest sitting in a TAB chewing off anyones ear with hard luck stories!

 

[__Ron_]

Zipping won't win the Melbourne Cup because he doesnt have the ability to take a forward position and finish off. That will mean he will have to make up a dozen or more lengths on the leaders while being held up, copping interference, coming wide, track bias etc to win.

 

[AAMI]

Zipping won't win the Melbourne Cup because he doesnt have the ability to take a forward position and finish off. That will mean he will have to make up a dozen or more lengths on the leaders while being held up, copping interference, coming wide, track bias etc to win.

I don't think Zipping will win the Melbourne Cup but only because I don't believe he is quite good enough and not because of the reasons you list above. Remember that the favourite (Master O'Reilley) races the same way as you describe and he clearly is the one to beat.

 

[__Ron_]

Master O has proven in the past he can race forward and still finish off. He also can take off much earlier then other horses and put himself into the race. Zipping and MO race very differently.

Could Zipping ever take off from last for example 800 out, track wide and still keep coming on the line? .... No i didn't think so....

Just because MO drops out doesn't mean he has to race that way. Zipping MUST race that way or else he'd run a distant last at the top level more often then not.

 

[go fullta]

Zipping won't win the Melbourne Cup because he doesnt have the ability to take a forward position and finish off. That will mean he will have to make up a dozen or more lengths on the leaders while being held up, copping interference, coming wide, track bias etc to win.

just shows how good makybe diva was ronald

 

[MarascoTheChump]

Can someone please confirm for me that Gallic won the Bedigo Cup.

 

[starz]

Lets get back on track guys...this bickering is starting to annoy me ...it also has the potential to keep once a year punters away from this board

Mate i agree and was happy to move on but it's not me bringing it up.
Anyway, have you put your bets on yet or waiting until closer to the race?

I think people need to be careful and not get too carried with the current favourites.

Master O'reilly carried just 50.5 kg in the CC and goes up 3kg against much tougher opposition than the Caulfield Cup, whereas Zipping, Efficient come down 4-5kg after racing at WFA, Miss Finland also drops 2kg. Gallic who is on fire also raced with 58kg in the Moonee Valley Cup and drops 3kg.

This will help no-end particularly Efficient who I think is a much better galloper with lighter weights and must come into calculations despite 2 poor showings, 3 starts ago he did run very well.
I liked On a Jeune's 3 runs, looked the superior horse in the race and was luckless twice before hitting the line very hard in each start. He looks set to run a big race with the lighter weight in current form.

 

[starz]

Aidan O'Brien on the Melbourne Cup

AIDAN O'Brien views the prospect of winning the Melbourne Cup as "unbelievable", but said he did not expect to win it.

O'Brien described the chance to come to the country's biggest carnival as a privilege -- a chance made available by Coolmore trump John Magnier.

However there is certainly no expectation that he will be taking the Melbourne Cup back to Ballydoyle.

"You can't come down and expect to win a race like this," O'Brien said.

"It's so competitive and such an unbelievable race.

"We'll try to give it our best shot. You dream about those things, but you don't expect to win. You always hope.

"Racing is very competitive down here. We would like to bring more horses, but you have to have the right horse."

O'Brien said he gained a better understanding of how staying races were run from the experience of his stable's first foray to Melbourne last year. He said it was important to have early tactical speed to take up a position as the tempo eased after 600m to 800m and then increased the last 800m.

"In Europe the races are a little bit more consistent, where a horse can get away without having as much early tactical speed," he said.

"That's one of the reasons we chose Scorpion. He was tactically very quick early."

 

[starz]

Miss Finland 'no certainty' for Melbourne Cup

Have to do better ... the rider of the Miss Finland, Craig Williams looks up in disbelief as he realises another horse won the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield last month.

MISS Finland needs to produce a Mackinnon Stakes run similar to former great mares Let's Elope and Empire Rose to convince trainer David Hayes to run the glamour mare in the Melbourne Cup.

For the first time this spring, Hayes was sounding far from bullish about Miss Finland yesterday and put punters on notice she is no certainty to contest the $5.1million Melbourne Cup next Tuesday.

Miss Finland's Cup chances go on the line in Saturday's Group One $755,000 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m). "We are heading towards the Mackinnon Stakes and hopefully she can bounce back,'' Hayes said.

"If she doesn't run like Let's Elope or Empire Rose then she won't start in the Melbourne Cup and we will turn her out.''

Let's Elope (1991) and Empire Rose (1988) both came from well back in the field to win the Mackinnon brilliantly then backed up three days later to take the Melbourne Cup. Hayes said he would instruct jockey Craig Williams to ride Miss Finland "cold'' in the Mackinnon.

"We will let her drift back in the field early, ride her cold and we won't worry too much about the tempo,'' he said. "I think if we ride her this way, she will sprint home over the top of them. I want to see her hitting the line hard.''

If Miss Finland was any other racehorse, her recent efforts would be viewed as excellent Cup trials, according to Hayes.

"The plan was to space her runs early in her preparation because she would have a few back-up runs in the back end of her spring campaign,'' he continued.

"We have increased her work and she's really well. But if she doesn't run a big race then there is not much point running her in the Melbourne Cup.''

Miss Finland has been a beaten favourite at her past three starts, failing to reproduce the finishing power she unleashed to win the Memsie Stakes first-up back in September.

Owner John Messara confirmed Miss Finland needed to show her best form to warrant a Melbourne Cup start.

"She is too valuable to run in the Melbourne Cup if she is not at her absolute peak,'' Messara said. "We expect her to run very well in the Mackinnon but if she doesn't, then she will go straight to the spelling paddock.''

Williams is convinced punters will see "the real Miss Finland'' in the Mackinnon. "We have analysed all her runs and found that when she does no work early in her races - like she did in the Memsie - then she shows her best acceleration,'' Williams said.

"In her other races, she has been revving a bit high and it just takes the edge off her finishing speed. If our theory is right, I'll ride her very quietly early and then she should be storming home. We will see the real Miss Finland on Saturday - if we don't then there is no Melbourne Cup.''

Hayes said he expected to have at least four and possibly six runners in the Melbourne Cup, which would be a training record for the race.

The trainer has new topweight Tawqeet, Blue Monday, Black Tom, Lazer Sharp and The Fuzz also in Cup contention. He said if Miss Finland does not start in the Melbourne Cup, then Williams will switch to lightweight The Fuzz.

While Miss Finland was restricted to light exercise yesterday, Tawqeet produced arguably his best gallop of the spring when he soundly defeated Blue Monday in a 1400m workout in 1min 33.95sec, including a final 400m in 23.83sec.

"I really think Tawqeet has found his best form at just the right time,'' Hayes said. ``With the Irish horse (Scorpion) coming out of the Cup, it means the weights have to be raised 0.5kg and Tawqeet goes to 57kg.

"In a two-mile (3200m) race, even a half kilo can make the difference to horses at the top end of the weights.''

Hayes said Tawqeet would join Miss Finlanad in Saturday's Mackinnon Stakes while The Fuzz and Black Tom are likely starters in the Saab Quality.

 

[starz]

Efficient pays for his failure

A DISAPPOINTED Lloyd Williams has taken his smart galloper Efficient to task after the Victoria Derby winner's failure in the W.S. Cox Plate.

Williams schooled him over a few jumps on Monday before giving him a hard hitout at Breakfast with the Stars at Flemington yesterday. Efficient showed he could be back on track with the standout gallop of the morning, just three days after he finished ninth in the Cox Plate.

Efficient worked with Completion and ran 1000m in 1min 03.90sec, with his last 400m in 22.78sec, the quickest of any gallops on the course proper. Efficient defeated Completion by about 1½ lengths.

Williams said he had jumped Efficient and would also take the blinkers off him after his Cox Plate failure. "He went over a few logs on Monday, the same as Gallic does. I was pleased with that. He was out there with a pretty serious horse in Completion.

"I thought he was pretty disappointing in the Cox Plate. He worked well at Moonee Valley the Saturday before, so I really couldn't come up with a reason for his failure."

Williams said that Efficient also had disappointed at his previous start, the Turnbull Stakes. He will start in Saturday's Mackinnon Stakes, along with Gallic.

Stablemate Zipping was not pushed, running 1000m in 1min 09.31sec, with his last 400m in 24.46sec. He will also start in the Mackinnon.

Gallic strolled a lap of Flemington under a stranglehold.
"He's a grand old horse. He's in good order," Williams said.

Steven Arnold is yet to decide between Gallic and Efficient, with the remaining ride going to Michael Rodd.

Another of the better workers yesterday was Maybe Better, who proved to trainer Brian Mayfield-Smith that he was back on track for the Melbourne Cup. "It wasn't hard work, but he stretched out quite nicely, his track rider thought it was good work."

Mayfield-Smith said Maybe Better would round off his preparation for the Melbourne Cup in the Mackinnon Stakes.

AAMI Victoria Derby second favourite Villain and Tawqeet also put in impressive gallops. Tawqeet again impressed with his trackwork, easily holding stablemate Blue Monday.

 

[sethlad]

"We have analysed all her runs and found that when she does no work early in her races - like she did in the Memsie - then she shows her best acceleration,'' Williams said.

Wow,who would have thought "she shows her best acceleration when she does no work early"
Fairly common in most horses I would have thought,especially those below the best.
No kidding Craig.

seth

 

[Lockyer24]

Can someone please confirm for me that Gallic won the Bedigo Cup.

He has won it twice champ, 2006 and 2004

 

[starz]

Crunch time for cup hopefuls begins

Twenty Melbourne Cup contenders have their final shakedowns at Flemington on Saturday, for some their last chance of sneaking into the field.

Most of the 10 cup hopefuls in the field of 15 for the Mackinnon Stakes field are already guaranteed a run in Tuesday's big race but the Saab Quality (2500m) is make or break for up to eight contenders.

Top Australian trainer David Hayes holds the key for several fringe hopefuls.

He had six of the 39 horses remaining after Monday's third cup declarations but has indicated he may only run four of them – Tawqeet, Blue Monday, Black Tom and The Fuzz.

Reports yesterday in Melbourne said his South Australian Derby winner Lazer Sharp would be saved for the Queen Elizabeth (2500m) the following Saturday rather than the Melbourne Cup.

Hayes' super mare Miss Finland, whose bubble has burst somewhat in recent starts, will be the most-watched runner in Saturday's Mackinnon.

"I wouldn't want to run her in the cup unless she runs a slasher in the Mackinnon," Hayes told Melbourne radio station Sport 927.

"I'll be looking for a winning performance, a performance that says `please run me'.

If Lazer Sharp and Miss Finland don't run, it allows Geelong Cup winner The Fuzz, 20 per cent owned by his Waikato breeders Phil and Jackie Rogers, to sneak up to No 24 on the order of entry and gain a start without having to win the Saab. Up to 24 horses can run in the Melbourne Cup.

It's also good news for Kiwi stayer Sculptor, who was the last cup contender to arrive in Melbourne yesterday and will move up to No 25, meaning one more withdrawal would see him start.

Forecast rain on Friday, Saturday and Sunday was also providing Sculptor's trainer Peter McKenzie with encouragement for his accomplished wet tracker.

"It's looking very promising from our point of view, but maybe not for some of the others," McKenzie said of the forecast.

Brian Jenkins, who trained 1998 cup winner Jezabeel in New Zealand but is now based near Melbourne, has Desert Master needing to win the Saab to qualify, while others in that position are Lee Freedman pair Cefalu and former New Zealand-trained stayer King Of Ashford, Anthony Cummings' Zavite and Clinton McDonald's PaciNo

The Fuzz was an early $3.60 Saab favourite on TAB Sportsbet in Australia, with Kiwis Mandela and Sculptor kept safe at $12 and $14 respectively.

 

[ShanBoi]

ding ding
come on sculptor! Get a start in the cup and win me some money haha

 

[Ron]

Anyone know the latest with Maybe Better?