AE 2008 - AE Next Duel

[Oscarman]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

Big week coming up in the Gene Upshaw division, with all divisional matchups.

 

[camsmith]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

Heartbreaking loss.. pretty much ends my hopes of getting to the playoffs.

 

[Sven]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

You never know, they may sneak one or two in! Because there are 5 WCs, after the division winners, there's only a few teams with 7-3 currently, and a whole bunch on 6-4 and 5-5 and 4-6. With three games to go, and only 2 games difference between the 6-4 teams and the 4-6 teams, it's possible there could be anything like 10 teams tied for a final 5th WC spot! Fun times for me ahead in sorting thru all that.


What will happen is that tie-breakers will FIRST decide placings within a division. Then the best non-division winning records will claim WCs. So if there are say 4 teams who end up claiming a WC, then there's like 10 teams all tied for the last WC spot, it will come down to a bunch of tie-breakers H2H, common opponents, AE score, etc, just among THOSE teams for the last spot.

What's certain is that if i dont win my division i wont claim a WC because i have very low tie-breaker things like AE score and overall correct tips, and even H2H where 4 of my 5 wins have all been divisional wins. It's feasible that GG could win the division but someone like Rory and Blastfurnace claim a WC because they have good non-divisional H2H records and high AE and correct tips scores.

You could argue that technically only the players with 2 wins or less are out of the playoff race, and that would be a correct statement because the current top five wildcards have 6-4 records or better

JeffDunne (7-2-1)
Showbag (7-3-0)
Crowman_23 (6-4-0)
Arakaan (6-4-0)
BurnleyBomber (6-4-0)
TGBB (6-4-0)

It all depends on whether the magic number (currently 9) decreases each week or not. It's likely it will, and therefore most players are still in the hunt.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

You could argue that technically only the players with 2 wins or less are out of the playoff race, and that would be a correct statement because the current top five wildcards have 6-4 records or better

JeffDunne (7-2-1)
Showbag (7-3-0)
Crowman_23 (6-4-0)
Arakaan (6-4-0)
BurnleyBomber (6-4-0)
TGBB (6-4-0)

It all depends on whether the magic number (currently 9) decreases each week or not. It's likely it will, and therefore most players are still in the hunt.

Also, you'd have to look at remaining schedule for all those teams who are 5-5 etc and see if any are playing each other. Cos that would surely kill off a bunch of people. BUt i couldnt be ****ed going thru all that to see exactly. I think this week will definitely eliminate a bunch more people on the 4-6 to 5-5 cusp.

 

[statsman74]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

Also, you'd have to look at remaining schedule for all those teams who are 5-5 etc and see if any are playing each other. Cos that would surely kill off a bunch of people. BUt i couldnt be ****ed going thru all that to see exactly. I think this week will definitely eliminate a bunch more people on the 4-6 to 5-5 cusp.

Remains to be seen whether my tie will help me or not. Obviously a W is better, but that T might just push me over the line, as long as I win 2 of 3.

For me I think it is; (5-4-1 right now)

3 of 3 - in
2 of 3 - probably in???
1 of 3 - not effing likely
0 of 3 - plan holidays

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

Remains to be seen whether my tie will help me or not. Obviously a W is better, but that T might just push me over the line, as long as I win 2 of 3.

For me I think it is; (5-4-1 right now)

3 of 3 - in
2 of 3 - probably in???
1 of 3 - not effing likely
0 of 3 - plan holidays

Oh shit, i forgot there are a few of you with a tied game who are vying for that WC spot. Well that makes it more likely one of you tied guys will get in. Could be like a bunch of people log-jammed at say 7-6 for the 5th spot, but you could leapfrog everyone with a 7-5-1 record.

JD: 7-2-1 (would say he'll get one WC)
Statsman/Marcuz: 5-4-1 (both of you would beat out all the 5-5 teams if you keep pace with their wins)
Geecats: 4-5-1 (might get a sniff if he wins all 3 games)

Currently, the WCs are...

JeffDunne (7-2-1)
Showbag (7-3-0)
Crowman_23 (6-4-0)
Arakaan (6-4-0)
BurnleyBomber (6-4-0)
TGBB (6-4-0)

So all the 5-4-1 teams are very dangerous right now.

 

[Oscarman]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

We should have what the NFL do and have playoff scenarios each week i.e. who can clinch playoff spots or wildcards.

 

[manureid]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

Heartbreaking loss.. pretty much ends my hopes of getting to the playoffs.

It came down to the Arizonal v SF game in our matchup. We both had Zona, but I had them for 14, which meant a win pushed me over the top of you. How nervous was i when SF were on the 1 for those last 2 plays!!!!

 

[Exe Gesis]

We should have what the NFL do and have playoff scenarios each week i.e. who can clinch playoff spots or wildcards.

I'll see what I can do...

 

[Woodson]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

We should have what the NFL do and have playoff scenarios each week i.e. who can clinch playoff spots or wildcards.

At AE, we can be more graphic.

There are FIVE very IMPORTANT H2H encounters that have CUT THROAT implications written all over them. LOSER is GAWN!

BALMAINFOREVER (4-6) vs ZARKO (5-5)
STATSMAN74 (5-4-1) vs GEECATS07 (4-5-1)
FUEY (4-6) vs PETERBUCH74 (4-6)
GALACTIC (4-6) vs McGARNACLE (4-6)
MANUREID (5-5) vs MOO (5-5)

with REDRAGGER (5-5) & WIZARD9 (5-5) in MUST WIN games this weekend.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Here's a run down for the division title races...

Deevs---has clinched Barry Sanders division.
Dspeed---will clinch Webster Slaughter division if he wins or Statsman loses. If Dspeed loses and Statsman ties, the division title may still be up in the air because Dspeed and Statsman split the H2H record 1-1.
Sven---will clinch Dick Butkus division if he wins and JeffDunne loses. If JeffDunne ties and Sven wins, the division title could still be up in the air because they split the H2H 1-1.
TACHawks---will clinch Jim Brown division if he wins and Arakaan and Crowman lose or tie.
Oscarman---will clinch Gene Upshaw division if he wins and BurnleyBomber and TGBB lose or tie.
wce_all_da_way---has clinched Joe Greene division. Because he holds 2-0 H2H tie-breaker with Wizard who at best can reach 8-5 and at worst wce_all_da_way can reach 8-5.
IslandBomber---will clinch Lawrence Taylor division if he wins and Manureid and Moo lose or tie (due to H2H and division record tie-breakers).



Here's a run down for the playoff/wildcard race...

JeffDunne---COULD clinch a playoff spot with a win (depends on tie-breakers and other results).
Showbag---COULD clinch a playoff spot with a win (depends on tie-breakers and other results).
NDG---COULD clinch a playoff spot with a win (depends on tie-breakers and other results).



Here's a run down of all the teams officially eliminated from the playoff race...

your_not Me!
Southerntakeover
Wolfmother2
Kimirocks
Juddy_like



Here's a list of 3-7 teams who are most likely eliminated already (pending other results and how low the WC threshold goes--currently the WC threshold looks to be 7 or 8 wins which would already eliminate these teams).

Woodson
Camsmith
Cassius_Clay
Apex

 

[Woodson]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

Here's a run down of all the teams officially eliminated from the playoff race...

your_not Me!
Southerntakeover
Wolfmother2
Kimirocks
Juddy_like


Here's a list of 3-7 teams who are most likely eliminated already (pending other results and how low the WC threshold goes--currently the WC threshold looks to be 7 or 8 wins which would already eliminate these teams).

Woodson
Camsmith
Cassius_Clay
Apex

I have no doubt I'm out of the running (was looking at 7-6 as my best hope in squeezing in). Still have a say who wins the division with TACHawks & Crowman23 on my upcoming schedule. Great work GG. Much appreciated.

Would love to WIN the Brother-In-Law Bowl this weekend.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

I have no doubt I'm out of the running (was looking at 7-6 as my best hope in squeezing in). Still have a say who wins the division with TACHawks & Crowman23 on my upcoming schedule. Great work GG. Much appreciated.

Would love to WIN the Brother-In-Law Bowl this weekend.

im not 100% sure that the 5th WC spot could end up requiring just 6 wins to get in. There are so many results this week that could happen which could see that 5th WC threshold drop to 6 wins needed. It would be just for that last 5th spot tho. As it would seem very probable that 4 spots will be taken by teams with 7 wins.

 

[Oscarman]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

gg, Woody - some of your best.

 

[Woodson]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

im not 100% sure that the 5th WC spot could end up requiring just 6 wins to get in. There are so many results this week that could happen which could see that 5th WC threshold drop to 6 wins needed. It would be just for that last 5th spot tho. As it would seem very probable that 4 spots will be taken by teams with 7 wins.

Quite possible GG.

Just let it run it's course without getting into the nitty gritty for now because so many plays, so many turnovers and so many games to be determined even with 3 games out. Come Week 13, when we have the advantage of knowing who tipped which team and how much of an impact a result can make is where
it'll come down to realising where its all at. I'd say the 4-6 guys are hanging by a thread to think they can squeeze 2 wins and allow the crucial divisional match ups to go against them this week is too far a reach. I've conceded I can't win the division so it's whether my divisional foes CHOKE big time but Arakaan is far more the serious threat for mine having swept me and he is a smart 'strategic' tipster in my books.

 

[Wizard]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

I'm still a wildcard chance, but have some serious work to do in the coming weeks.

 

[Woodson]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

I'm still a wildcard chance, but have some serious work to do in the coming weeks.

Of the 5-5 teams, you have the easier schedule but that means NADA as having the tie-breaker advantage over Danielz is just a sweetner if things get to down to the nitty gritty stage come Week 13.

 

[Wizard]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

Of the 5-5 teams, you have the easier schedule but that means NADA as having the tie-breaker advantage over Danielz is just a sweetner if things get to down to the nitty gritty stage come Week 13.

My huge weeks last week puts me right amongst things in the overall points, just 36 behind the leader now and sitting 11th.
If the competition was just head to head tipping i would be in a 3 way tie @ the top.

Its frustrating as i have 5 more tips then WCADA and sit 3 wins behind him in my division.

 

[Woodson]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

My huge weeks last week puts me right amongst things in the overall points, just 36 behind the leader now and sitting 11th.
If the competition was just head to head tipping i would be in a 3 way tie @ the top.

Its frustrating as i have 5 more tips then WCADA and sit 3 wins behind him in my division.

That's the beauty of the CONFIDENCE TIPPING FORMAT. WADW has taken more chances than you (CR sakewise) so he earns that credit in the way of WINS/ More Points on the AE. You'll probably have to LOAD the dice on your CARDS with crucial games against NFC East teams in coming weeks. Good luck there.

 

[Wizard]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

That's the beauty of the CONFIDENCE TIPPING FORMAT. WADW has taken more chances than you (CR sakewise) so he earns that credit in the way of WINS/ More Points on the AE. You'll probably have to LOAD the dice on your CARDS with crucial games against NFC East teams in coming weeks. Good luck there.

We have Washington, New England and NYG to come, now huge CR games there my friend.

 

[dspeed]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

With Blastfurnace not submitting his picks this week i just claimed the division title, going to 9-2!

 

[manureid]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

He could still submit his tips, he will just have to have the NE/Jets as CR1.

 

[Dagless]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

He could still submit his tips, he will just have to have the NE/Jets as CR1.

Didn't woodson say this week there are no second chances, you NEED them in before the first game? Think thats the case coz I can already see everyone's tips...

Cassius forgot his...

 

[dspeed]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

He could still submit his tips, he will just have to have the NE/Jets as CR1.

Nah it is locked, Woodson specifically said last week was the only week he would reopen it i am pretty sure, so BF will get the lowest score less 15

 

[Dagless]

Re: BF AE - NEXT DUEL - Schedule Scores Discussion

From the AE thread...

The following weeks there will be NO Excuses as there are EARLY 'Thursday games' until Week 16. AE Tipping Deadline WILL be ENFORCED at Friday 12.10PM AEST (5min before kick-off) . Most of you have done exceptionally well to tip ahead of time and I strongly suggest to those who didn't follow suit to tip a week in advance JUST IN CASE.