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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
2010 Tour de France
- Thread starter kenrosewall
- Start date
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The Royal Sampler
Floreat Pica, Bitch!
Rojas finished two spots behind Boasson Hagen.Stage 18
LL Sanchez @ $1.71 to beat Leipheimer (bet365).
Rojas Gil @ $1.68 to beat Boasson Hagen (Centrebet).
Really an amazing effort by "Eddie" after the work he did on the Col yesterday. Got some great help from his team in getting him up to the front, which Rojas didn't get.
Rojas finished two spots behind Boasson Hagen.
Rojas rides for Caisse.
The Royal Sampler
Floreat Pica, Bitch!
Damn... and too late for a ninja edit.
Obviously getting my Sanchez's confused.
Obviously getting my Sanchez's confused.
mattys123
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And Robbie McEwen saves my arse.
He finished 4th, which was about where I was hoping he would finish.
The little bugger just keeps getting results.
He finished 4th, which was about where I was hoping he would finish.
The little bugger just keeps getting results.
Some interesting H2H's at TAB. I think there's definitely some value in there.
Cancellara @ 1.62 vs Contador @2.20 - Contador beat Cancellara in the ITT last year however the stage profiles are a bit different (I think there was a bit of a hill last year which helped Contador?). Contador only beat him by 3 seconds though and with the stage being a bit longer I reckon Cancellara will go on top.
Brajkovic @ 2.20 vs Wiggins 1.60- I reckon Brajkovic can take it over Wiggins. Wiggins is a a renowned time trialler however his form in this tour has been shocking. Lost alot of time in the Prologue as well where Brajkovic did well. Brajkovic also won the Dauphiné time trial last month beating some impressive names like Millar, Contador, Menchov, EBH etc.
Schleck @ 1.35 vs Van den Broeck @ 3.00- Now this one puzzles me. Sure Schleck might grow an extra leg as he's going to want to get the yellow (which he won't) but Van den Broeck is clearly the better time trialler. He was a previous junior world champ in the time trial discipline- he's a solid time trialler. Schleck really really struggles in time trials and over 50km I think he'll lose alot of time to Contador. I reckon Van den Broeck can/should beat him as well and $3 represents amazing value.
Luis Leon Sanchez @2.25 vs Samuel Sanchez 1.58- Value for Luis Leon, the guy is a top time trialler and should be too strong for Sammy Sanchez IMO. Luis Leon was top 10 in last years ITT, did well in the prologue as well this year.
Hesjadal @1.70 vs Ruben Plaza Molina @2.05- Another interesting battle, pretty evenly matched IMO. They should be pretty much even I think, Ruben Plaza Molina is a proven time trialler, Hesjadal is good time trialler as well having a very good tour. Probably won't touch this one but Molina @2.05 is good value.
Obviously guys like Wiggins, Schleck, Sammy Sanchez and Hesjadal have an advantage as they go out later than the other riders in their H2H's but Brajkovic, Van Den Broeck, LLS and Molina are all pretty good value...
Cancellara @ 1.62 vs Contador @2.20 - Contador beat Cancellara in the ITT last year however the stage profiles are a bit different (I think there was a bit of a hill last year which helped Contador?). Contador only beat him by 3 seconds though and with the stage being a bit longer I reckon Cancellara will go on top.
Brajkovic @ 2.20 vs Wiggins 1.60- I reckon Brajkovic can take it over Wiggins. Wiggins is a a renowned time trialler however his form in this tour has been shocking. Lost alot of time in the Prologue as well where Brajkovic did well. Brajkovic also won the Dauphiné time trial last month beating some impressive names like Millar, Contador, Menchov, EBH etc.
Schleck @ 1.35 vs Van den Broeck @ 3.00- Now this one puzzles me. Sure Schleck might grow an extra leg as he's going to want to get the yellow (which he won't) but Van den Broeck is clearly the better time trialler. He was a previous junior world champ in the time trial discipline- he's a solid time trialler. Schleck really really struggles in time trials and over 50km I think he'll lose alot of time to Contador. I reckon Van den Broeck can/should beat him as well and $3 represents amazing value.
Luis Leon Sanchez @2.25 vs Samuel Sanchez 1.58- Value for Luis Leon, the guy is a top time trialler and should be too strong for Sammy Sanchez IMO. Luis Leon was top 10 in last years ITT, did well in the prologue as well this year.
Hesjadal @1.70 vs Ruben Plaza Molina @2.05- Another interesting battle, pretty evenly matched IMO. They should be pretty much even I think, Ruben Plaza Molina is a proven time trialler, Hesjadal is good time trialler as well having a very good tour. Probably won't touch this one but Molina @2.05 is good value.
Obviously guys like Wiggins, Schleck, Sammy Sanchez and Hesjadal have an advantage as they go out later than the other riders in their H2H's but Brajkovic, Van Den Broeck, LLS and Molina are all pretty good value...
8 units Contador over Millar @ $1.28 - self explanatory. Millar has broken ribs and had them for the last two weeks.
7 units Martin over Millar @ $1.50 - Martin has been deliberately tanking to do well here. He has been at the back in the mountains for a reason. His goals at the start were to win the time trial. He should be fresh here.
*8 units Grabsch over Schleck @ $1.72 - This is self explanatory. Grabsch produces a lot of power on flat stages. A lot of power. He's a more powerful rider than Schleck.
3 units Kreuziger over Schleck @ $2.65
Kreuziger is a better time trialist than Schleck. Personally, I will be surprised if Schleck stays within a minute of the top ten tonight in the time trial. He's definitely going to lose more than a minute to Contador.
3 units Rodriguez over Gesink @ $2.65 - Both aren't that good time trialists but I give the edge to Rodriguez. Plus Rodriguez is fresher.
4 units Zabriskie over Millar @ $1.60
6 units Martin over Millar x L L Sanchez over Van Den Broeck @ $2.10
1 unit Grabsch @ $21
3 units Grabsch top 3 @ $5
Adding something else.
2 units Sanchez to hang onto third @ $3.75
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time trials at the end of Grand Tours mark Freshness. If you are fresh and have coped well over the three weeks, you will win. Some of you guys backing Brajkovic is a worry. I personally wouldn't touch it but Brajkovic has struggled all tour. Wiggins actually wants a strong showing to salvage something out of this Tour. He should come in top ten.
7 units Martin over Millar @ $1.50 - Martin has been deliberately tanking to do well here. He has been at the back in the mountains for a reason. His goals at the start were to win the time trial. He should be fresh here.
*8 units Grabsch over Schleck @ $1.72 - This is self explanatory. Grabsch produces a lot of power on flat stages. A lot of power. He's a more powerful rider than Schleck.
3 units Kreuziger over Schleck @ $2.65
Kreuziger is a better time trialist than Schleck. Personally, I will be surprised if Schleck stays within a minute of the top ten tonight in the time trial. He's definitely going to lose more than a minute to Contador.
3 units Rodriguez over Gesink @ $2.65 - Both aren't that good time trialists but I give the edge to Rodriguez. Plus Rodriguez is fresher.
4 units Zabriskie over Millar @ $1.60
6 units Martin over Millar x L L Sanchez over Van Den Broeck @ $2.10
1 unit Grabsch @ $21
3 units Grabsch top 3 @ $5
Adding something else.
2 units Sanchez to hang onto third @ $3.75
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time trials at the end of Grand Tours mark Freshness. If you are fresh and have coped well over the three weeks, you will win. Some of you guys backing Brajkovic is a worry. I personally wouldn't touch it but Brajkovic has struggled all tour. Wiggins actually wants a strong showing to salvage something out of this Tour. He should come in top ten.
Some other info.
The weather tonight favours the early starters. There should be tailwind for the first half and then headwind for the second half.
The weather tonight favours the early starters. There should be tailwind for the first half and then headwind for the second half.
Six minutes and Grabsch will be off.
Adding:
4 units Wiggins over Brajkovic @ $1.60
Brajkovic may have won the time trial in the Dauphine, but he had form then. He was in the best form of his career. Switch to three weeks of hard racing and you will see he's struggled over the three weeks. He was the shade of the bloke he was a week before the Tour.
Wiggins is the most overrated cyclist. People expected him to do well - but he's not a climber. He fluked his top 10 last year and will never finish top ten again. Don't be fooled by his ride this year. He is average but a solid time trialist.
He has rested over the last few stages to get prepared and wants to end the Tour on a high note.
4 units Wiggins over Brajkovic @ $1.60
Brajkovic may have won the time trial in the Dauphine, but he had form then. He was in the best form of his career. Switch to three weeks of hard racing and you will see he's struggled over the three weeks. He was the shade of the bloke he was a week before the Tour.
Wiggins is the most overrated cyclist. People expected him to do well - but he's not a climber. He fluked his top 10 last year and will never finish top ten again. Don't be fooled by his ride this year. He is average but a solid time trialist.
He has rested over the last few stages to get prepared and wants to end the Tour on a high note.
mattys123
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Because of being at the footy all day, I forgot to place some bets this morning.
Only have the one bet on at the moment;
Samuel Sanchez over Luiz Leon Sanchez @ 1.75
I've loved what Sammy has done over the whole tour, and while this may be close, I believe Sammy will beat Luiz as Sammy has more to ride for.
I'm waiting more for tomorrow nights final stage, as I have 2 AFL Mutlis that are alive and kicking, and almost certs to come up winners by tomorrow.
Only have the one bet on at the moment;
Samuel Sanchez over Luiz Leon Sanchez @ 1.75
I've loved what Sammy has done over the whole tour, and while this may be close, I believe Sammy will beat Luiz as Sammy has more to ride for.
I'm waiting more for tomorrow nights final stage, as I have 2 AFL Mutlis that are alive and kicking, and almost certs to come up winners by tomorrow.
mattys123
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Just added;
Sammy Sanchez over Ryder Hesjdal @ 1.75
So basically I'm a Sammy Sanchez fan for the night.
Sammy Sanchez over Ryder Hesjdal @ 1.75
So basically I'm a Sammy Sanchez fan for the night.
That Martin over Millar bet is safe and Millar hasn't finished yet and Martin has only done 18km haha.
Yeah - This isn't a course that suits Hesjedal. Good luck.
Yeah - This isn't a course that suits Hesjedal. Good luck.
Won't win it, but should see him finish in the top 10.
49.73km/h over 52km is a solid ride.
Why? What do you have him for?
49.73km/h over 52km is a solid ride.
Why? What do you have him for?
Yeah
Being early has nothing to do with it though. He should be top 3 for a while. The good news is that Martin and Cancellara will come in and they will be faster than him. But other than Zabriskie, Wiggins, Menchov and Contador to come, it's looking good for a place. And the weather should be harder for the last three riders I mentioned.
Centrebet and Sportingbet leave their head to heads open until the riders go.
5 units Chavanel over Thomas @ $1.60 (Centrebet)
5 units Chavanel over Thomas @ $1.60 (Centrebet)
Just to make it easy to track - these are the bets as posted above. The bolded ones have won. If I place anymore bets, I will do a new post with this format with it.
8 units Contador over Millar @ $1.28
7 units Martin over Millar @ $1.50
*8 units Grabsch over Schleck @ $1.72 - should win
3 units Kreuziger over Schleck @ $2.65
3 units Rodriguez over Gesink @ $2.65
4 units Zabriskie over Millar @ $1.60
4 units Wiggins over Brajkovic @ $1.60
4 units Chavanel over Thomas @ $1.60
6 units Martin over Millar x L L Sanchez over Van Den Broeck @ $2.10
1 unit Grabsch @ $21
3 units Grabsch top 3 @ $5
2 units Sanchez to podium overall @ $3.75
8 units Contador over Millar @ $1.28
7 units Martin over Millar @ $1.50
*8 units Grabsch over Schleck @ $1.72 - should win
3 units Kreuziger over Schleck @ $2.65
3 units Rodriguez over Gesink @ $2.65
4 units Zabriskie over Millar @ $1.60
4 units Wiggins over Brajkovic @ $1.60
4 units Chavanel over Thomas @ $1.60
6 units Martin over Millar x L L Sanchez over Van Den Broeck @ $2.10
1 unit Grabsch @ $21
3 units Grabsch top 3 @ $5
2 units Sanchez to podium overall @ $3.75
The Royal Sampler
Floreat Pica, Bitch!
After you mentioned it I had a look for Chavanel over Thomas on Centrebet, but they must have just taken it down. I've pretty much wound up my TDF betting for this year, but best of luck to you guys.
Yeah - when I posted it, it was 5 mins to go. Sorry about that.
Adding:
3 units Moreau over Lovkvist @ $1.90 - Bet365
Moreau has continued on strong as the Tour progressed. Lovkvist has died off in the last couple days. Moreau is good against the clock so I am going to go him.
Adding:
3 units Moreau over Lovkvist @ $1.90 - Bet365
Moreau has continued on strong as the Tour progressed. Lovkvist has died off in the last couple days. Moreau is good against the clock so I am going to go him.
That above bet will close in 6 minutes when Moreau leavs at 11:01pm AEST
8 units Contador over Millar @ $1.28
7 units Martin over Millar @ $1.50
*8 units Grabsch over Schleck @ $1.72
3 units Kreuziger over Schleck @ $2.65
3 units Rodriguez over Gesink @ $2.65
4 units Zabriskie over Millar @ $1.60
4 units Wiggins over Brajkovic @ $1.60
4 units Chavanel over Thomas @ $1.60
3 units Moreau over Lovkvist @ $1.90
6 units Martin over Millar x L L Sanchez over Van Den Broeck @ $2.10
1 unit Grabsch @ $21
3 units Grabsch top 3 @ $5
2 units Sanchez to podium overall @ $3.75
Won't be placing anymore bets. That Chavanel over Lovkvist bet will lose. That Wiggins over Brajkovic bet will get up easily.
7 units Martin over Millar @ $1.50
*8 units Grabsch over Schleck @ $1.72
3 units Kreuziger over Schleck @ $2.65
3 units Rodriguez over Gesink @ $2.65
4 units Zabriskie over Millar @ $1.60
4 units Wiggins over Brajkovic @ $1.60
4 units Chavanel over Thomas @ $1.60
3 units Moreau over Lovkvist @ $1.90
6 units Martin over Millar x L L Sanchez over Van Den Broeck @ $2.10
1 unit Grabsch @ $21
3 units Grabsch top 3 @ $5
2 units Sanchez to podium overall @ $3.75
Won't be placing anymore bets. That Chavanel over Lovkvist bet will lose. That Wiggins over Brajkovic bet will get up easily.
Prologue: +6.96
Stage 1: -8
Stage 2: +2.4
Stage 3: +22.1
Stage 4: +3.75
Stage 5: +16.95
Stage 6: +4
Stage 7: -10.2
Stage 8: +1.05
Stage 9: +3.07
Stage 10: -7.9
Stage 11: +6.75
Stage 12: +33.1
Stage 13: -2.67
Stage 14: -6.09
Stage 15: -6.85
Stage 16: -9.35
Stage 17: -9.35
Stage 18: -7.50
Stage 19: +2.76
Interim TDF Bank: +35.28 units
Stage 1: -8
Stage 2: +2.4
Stage 3: +22.1
Stage 4: +3.75
Stage 5: +16.95
Stage 6: +4
Stage 7: -10.2
Stage 8: +1.05
Stage 9: +3.07
Stage 10: -7.9
Stage 11: +6.75
Stage 12: +33.1
Stage 13: -2.67
Stage 14: -6.09
Stage 15: -6.85
Stage 16: -9.35
Stage 17: -9.35
Stage 18: -7.50
Stage 19: +2.76
Interim TDF Bank: +35.28 units
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