2011 Emirates Melbourne Cup......nominations

[iluvparis]

Modun and Lost In The Moment are the Godolphin runners.

No japs this year.

 

[sethlad]

Interesting week ahead with vets testing the top 35 in the OOE from Thursday.
Any horse not passed fit by Derby morning will not be allowed to accept for the Cup on Sat night

Not sure what this means for those racing in the Lexus?
Assume they will need to be examined post race as well.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/s...enders-this-week/story-fn67siys-1226174471806

seth

 

[sethlad]

Re: 2011 Emirates Melbourne Cup.....2nd decs

47 left after 2nd decs

The surprise & bad news for Bauer fans is David Hayes paying up for Tactic who is apparently going to the Lexus,with every other stayer in the world.

Still a few doubtful but Lexus winner is straight in

1. Jukebox Jury
2. Americain
3. Shamrocker
4. Midas Touch
5. Manighar
6. Glass Harmonium (doubt)
7. Unusual Suspect
8. Drunken Sailor
9. Dunaden
10. Linton (doubt)
11. Precedence
12. Mourayan
13.Red Cadeaux
14. Fox Hunt
15.Lucas Cranach
16.Hawk Island
17. Lost In The Moment
18. Illo
19.Modun
20. At First Sight (Bendigo cup wed)
21. Booming
22. Older Than Time
23. Tactic
24. Sahara Sun (Bendigo cup wed)

==============
Tullamore
The Verminator
Moyenne Corniche
Saptapadi
Bauer
Shewan
Ironstein
Lamasery
Niwot
Green Moon
Spechenka
Showcause
Macedonian
Tanby
Galizani
Anudjawun
Two For Tea
Raffaello
Midnight Martini
Cosmonaut
Reprisal
Back in Black
Western Symbol

seth

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Re: 2011 Emirates Melbourne Cup.....2nd decs

What do you guys think Moyenne Corniche's chances of getting a run are? He'd have to borderline with the doubts on GH and Linton, and the stewards have announced they want to avoid a Bauer type situation from last year, so will be vetting much earlier this year, which may mean a couple of others may drop out. Currently at odds of $48 on Betfair.

I got a bet matched at $55 a few days ago, surely if he does get a start he'll go around much shorter than the current price.

 

[iluvparis]

Re: 2011 Emirates Melbourne Cup.....2nd decs

If he doesn't start much shorter Rooster than he will be massive value on the day. You have got a great price and I reckon he is a great roughie if he makes the field.

 

[sethlad]

Unusual year for 2 reasons:

Firstly,the usual high Derby day drop out rate will be lower because very few of the current 24 will be running there....3 or 4 tops.
That may be countered by the vet situation this year,VRC vets are traditionally very tough so I can see a few having to prove their fitness.

I reckon MC will make the field,personally he's around the right price.
His form is around the Ebor horses & Red Cadeaux & most are $30+ too.
He was good at Caulfield but thats the level below whats needed IMO.

seth

 

[Rippo]

IF Western Symbol was to win the Bendigo Cup does that get it straight into the race???

 

[The_Doctor]

Unusual year for 2 reasons:

Firstly,the usual high Derby day drop out rate will be lower because very few of the current 24 will be running there....3 or 4 tops.
That may be countered by the vet situation this year,VRC vets are traditionally very tough so I can see a few having to prove their fitness.

I reckon MC will make the field,personally he's around the right price.
His form is around the Ebor horses & Red Cadeaux & most are $30+ too.
He was good at Caulfield but thats the level below whats needed IMO.

seth

I reckon the Tanby/Shewan form line is holding up very well myself. I reckon Moyenne Corniche will win the Lexus (If he is still going there) so those odds could look real good come MC day

 

[sethlad]

IF Western Symbol was to win the Bendigo Cup does that get it straight into the race???

No he needs to win very well & cop a big penalty

Its a decent form line but IMO it isnt good enough to win a Melb Cup.
Top 10,definitely.

If MC is good enough to beat Green Moon & a few others in the Lexus then I may change my mind

seth

 

[SUPASTARR]

Think I read today in the HUN that Red Cadeaux was supposed to run in the Bendigo Cup?? He is not in the final field hope all is ok...

 

[sethlad]

Red Cadeaux is safely in the Cup field & cant run at Bendigo because he's still in quarantine.

seth

 

[SUPASTARR]

Yeah righto thanks Seth cheers mate

 

[sethlad]

No probs,apparently did lose 10+kg on the trip over & that has been reflected on Betfair where he's been quite easy.

Not the end of the world tho

seth

 

[Childish Gambino]

Great work again this year on the cup seth. I follow this thread every year.

If you don't mind me asking where do you get most of your information from?

 

[sethlad]

Cheers,hopefully its been useful in helping a few posters get to good trading positions.

Initially its just a couple of guys I know in the UK who have a handle on the form & the bigger stables.
Once noms are out its certainly a lot easier to find info than it used to be,everyone seems to tweet,except me.

seth

 

[Ricketts]

Seth can you please refresh my memory on what has been happening with At First Sight this season? He hasn't run since the Naturalism, and I vaguely remember reading that he was injured?

Him and Midas Touch are ones I've been following and waiting to get up in distance.

 

[sethlad]

AFS had a virus but is in the Bendigo Cup Wed (already $4.4 to $3.9) so it appears he is looking ok.
Not the ideal preparation but Lloyd's often have unusual lead ins

M Touch is running in the Mackinnon,his WFA form reads well & he's been safely in the Cup field so they havent been forced to run him.
Clearly they are happy with him with a week to go

seth

 

[daics_35]

Seth, what are the chances Macedonian will end up running, I know its 13 or so horses infront of him but where would he need to finish in the lexus to quilify?

 

[Selective Retention]

I didn't realise Green Moon was so far back.

With the big pool of internationals (and yes I know Green Moon is a "naturalised" international) it makes it bloody tough for a progressive horse to make the field.

Is it too easy for some of these scrubber internationals to qualify?

 

[mattys123]

Is it too easy for some of these scrubber internationals to qualify?

A lot of the local trainers and owners think so.

I don't know what the total amount of automatic qualification races there are in Australia and overseas, but there sure are plenty more international races then there used to be.

Even old Bart Cummings has crossed the line and is training a pre qualified German horse.

 

[sethlad]

Seth, what are the chances Macedonian will end up running, I know its 13 or so horses infront of him but where would he need to finish in the lexus to quilify?

His only hope is to win the Lexus,winner gets a run.

Heres the official latest OOE:
http://www.racenet.com.au/breeding/pdfs/2011EmiratesMelbourneCupEliminationOrder241011.pdf

seth

 

[Lockyer24]

I like Midas Touch but its off very limited exposed form.

Might have to get on before the Mackinnon in case he runs a blinder.

 

[Chasing_Cars]

What are Bauer's chances of getting a run? I was going to put my bet on him today but not sure now.

 

[The_Doctor]

Dont back Bauer now. You will get at least the odds available now on the day (Probably more) and you cannot do your money cold like if you bet now

 

[Selective Retention]

I don't know what the total amount of automatic qualification races there are in Australia and overseas, but there sure are plenty more international races then there used to be.

From the updated ooe posted by Seth it seems running a place in the caulfield cup is worth sfa as far as qualification goes while running second in the derby in Chile will qualify you