2012 Predictions Pt.II

[Obeanie1]

My point exactly - the major difference this coming year is that there will be a host of upcoming teams with that core group at around the 80+ experience including North, Essendon, Richmond, Carlton, WCE and even Melbourne. These teams will put increasing pressure on the Cats, Hawks and Pies and we won't see as big a gap between 3rd and 8th....teams will not have the luxury of 'management' this time around, and i hate to admit it, but this will effect the Cats and Pies more than any other.

Add to that the fact that aside from GWS, i think there is going to be significant improvement from the bottom half as well. Port Adelaide have got improvement in them as to have Brisbane - Gold Coast are also going to suprise a lot of people, they will only get exponentially better from here on in. This means there is going to be a hell of a long competitve season amongst those going for finals positions and the number of easy games is going to reduce signifcantly on what has been a very narrow field over the last 5 years as the 'rebuilding teams' (Carlton, West Coast, Melbourne, Richmond, North, Essendon) come into the market.

A poster before mentioned the Cats will be missing a great deal of senior experience (Ottens, Ling, Milburn, Mooney) however whilst i don't think we will be dominating we will certainly be in contention amongst the other teams and we have some incredibly exciting youth coming through at the moment - if Menzel was able to push for a spot towards the end of next year we are going to be as dangerous as anyone.

As i see it, this is shaping as the most even field we have had in the AFL since 1993 - no team will stand out and it will be a great season.

Gold Coast will be very interesting indeed. Alot of AFL players have 2nd year blues and struggle. Gold Coast will have 70% of their list playing only their 2nd year. McKenna has stated they are 'light years ahead' of the same stage 12 months ago but he also said alot of other teams are ahead of where they were 12 months ago.

Essendon may be the smokey. Was reading the massive change in the weights room focus has occured at the Bombers, they've brought in some fitness guru and are really working at getting players bigger and stronger especially through the hips and legs. Player have reported they are fitter and running faster but without doing as many km on the track.

My post about the Cats was basically saying teams don't stay up forever and I see the Cats depth being tested much more in 2012 and they won't win as many games. 1/3 of the GF side has either retired, suffered a serious injury late in 2011 or are in their last year of AFL. Don't be surprised to see Geelong slide in 2012, a couple of injuries to key players and they will slip back to the pack.

 

[Knight Ryders]

I agree with you. I also think Lyon jumped ship at just about the perfect time. My guess would be the Saints are pretty close to the tough end of the cycle, 1 year maybe 2 for them to sneak into the 8, then curtains for 4-5 years.

We say 4-5 years but I think it is closer to 8-10 years these days to fully rebuild particularly with the lack of youth at the Saints.

 

[Obeanie1]

We say 4-5 years but I think it is closer to 8-10 years these days to fully rebuild particularly with the lack of youth at the Saints.

The Sydney Swans say hi.

But then again I don't rate their drafting / trading strategy. They don't bottom out but they struggle to land gun talent and make the bottom of the eight, win an easy final and drop out. 2005 and 2006 they came up against a young early achieving Eagles side that got to the GF relying too much on four guns in Cox, Kerr, Judd and Cousins.

IMO you do need to bottom out and grab 2>3 gun players ala Buddy, Hodge, Roughead or a Thomas, Pendlebury and land a T Cloke.

 

[WWSD]

The Sydney Swans say hi.

But then again I don't rate their drafting / trading strategy. They don't bottom out but they struggle to land gun talent and make the bottom of the eight, win an easy final and drop out. 2005 and 2006 they came up against a young early achieving Eagles side that got to the GF relying too much on four guns in Cox, Kerr, Judd and Cousins.

IMO you do need to bottom out and grab 2>3 gun players ala Buddy, Hodge, Roughead or a Thomas, Pendlebury and land a T Cloke.

2004.... Hmm... Three!! Roughead Franklin Lewis wow!

 

[Obeanie1]

2004.... Hmm... Three!! Roughead Franklin Lewis wow!

Like I said you need to pick up guns like a Buddy or Roughead.

You also need those B+ players like a Lewis to make up the numbers.

 

[WWSD]

Like I said you need to pick up guns like a Buddy or Roughead.

You also need those B+ players like a Lewis to make up the numbers.

Lewis B+? Maybe right now, but this guy will be an absolute super star! A gun player

 

[WCE_phil]

2004.... Hmm... Three!! Roughead Franklin Lewis wow!

Gee i guess having the most dominant player of the 08 finals series who was a number 1 draft pick had nothing to do with it either.

 

[rustyg70]

The Sydney Swans say hi.

But then again I don't rate their drafting / trading strategy. They don't bottom out but they struggle to land gun talent and make the bottom of the eight, win an easy final and drop out. quote]


What????
So Plugger, Big Bad Barry and to a lesser extent Paul Williams were awful players that never added anything to their list.
P.s. No final against Sydney is easy.
I think your team would know a thing or two about that.

 

[WCE_phil]

The Sydney Swans say hi.

But then again I don't rate their drafting / trading strategy. They don't bottom out but they struggle to land gun talent and make the bottom of the eight, win an easy final and drop out. quote]


What????
So Plugger, Big Bad Barry and to a lesser extent Paul Williams were awful players that never added anything to their list.
P.s. No final against Sydney is easy.
I think your team would know a thing or two about that.

Seems easier to land trade talent when you have 900k odd extra in your salary cap each year.

 

[zetz]

Seems easier to land trade talent when you have 900k odd extra in your salary cap each year.

Not this little chestnut...

 

[GoTheSwannies]

Re: Which teams will be below Brisbane?

Going to be a huge changing of the guard next year, similar to 2007. Too many teams have now built up a solid core group to simply allow the Pies, Cats and Hawks to cruise through early rounds...am expecting a very tight top 6 if not 8, with no clear top team. Carlton, Freo will be serious threats and I think North and Richmond will suprise. Even Essendon are going to be much tougher this year...add to that the fatigue that will set in on cats, hawks and pies whom have sustained recent finals success...I think the pies will actually struggle more than people are willing to acknowledge, no Brown and Davis and with Jolly not capable of putting an entire season together they are going to be more reliant on blokes like Toovey, Goldsack, Wood, Obrien etc to step up and play a step above....too many other teams are putting themselves in better positions and I haven't even mentioned West Coast

This is a good perspective. I think the fatigue factor will hit Geelong moreso than Hawthorn & Collingwood. Hawthorn are in the best position at this point in time. They're a real chance of finishing on top at the end of the season. Collingwood have some upside, but have also lost depth, so alot will come down to injuries, if they stay fit they're top 2 imo.

Carlton are primed to take a step up, they've been somewhat stagnant over the last 2 seasons but could make the jump in 2012. Essendon may be able to improve on last year but I feel they're most vulnerable if they cop injuries to key players. North & Richmond will rise, Freo will be back in the mix and pushing for top 4. West Coast & Sydney will be in the mix as well.

Hawthorn
Collingwood
Carlton
Freo
Sydney
West Coast
Geelong
Essendon
North
Richmond
Melbourne
St Kilda
Adelaide
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Suns
Port
GWS

 

[PCORF]

1 Collingwood
2 West Coast
3 Carlton
4 Geelong

5 Hawthorn
6 Essendon
7 Melbourne
8 Sydney

9 St Kilda
10 North Melbourne
11 W Bulldogs
12 Fremantle
13 Adelaide
14 Richmond
15 Port
16 Brisbane
17 Gold Coast
18 GWS

 

[WWSD]

Gee i guess having the most dominant player of the 08 finals series who was a number 1 draft pick had nothing to do with it either.

Yes he was very good In a way, but when Franklin 113.88 Roughead 75.58= 188 Goals between them for the entire year that they absolutley dominated. That's almost 100 Goals each!

 

[BrisbaneLion9636]

if people genuinly think the quality of younger players is better at brisbane than Port, there is no hope. honestly Hartlett, Gray and Boak are all a class above anyone at Brisbane.

 

[Obeanie1]

The Sydney Swans say hi.

But then again I don't rate their drafting / trading strategy. They don't bottom out but they struggle to land gun talent and make the bottom of the eight, win an easy final and drop out. quote]


What????
So Plugger, Big Bad Barry and to a lesser extent Paul Williams were awful players that never added anything to their list.
P.s. No final against Sydney is easy.
I think your team would know a thing or two about that.

When comparing gun talent please don't put Plugger and BBBH in the same sentence, its an insult to Plugger.

Was cleaning up the house prior to flying out the other day and put the 2006 GF on as background noise. BBBH pretty much lost that GF off his own boot and that was after playing an absolute shocker in the 2005 GF.

I'm actally really looking forward to watching his boxing career, it will be very interesting seeing how he goes against someone who is actually ready and waiting for him to throw a punch.

I'm tipping his boxing career will be as good as he went in those two GF appearances.

 

[AG]

lol at saying he had an absolute shocker in 05. I know you like getting stuck into the Swans but that's pure shite. He was one of our best and kicked one of the best clutch GF goals in recent memory. 06 he was ordinary but don't pretend he was ordinary in 05 to make your post sound better. You sound ridiculous.

 

[zetz]

When comparing gun talent please don't put Plugger and BBBH in the same sentence, its an insult to Plugger.

Was cleaning up the house prior to flying out the other day and put the 2006 GF on as background noise. BBBH pretty much lost that GF off his own boot and that was after playing an absolute shocker in the 2005 GF.

I'm actally really looking forward to watching his boxing career, it will be very interesting seeing how he goes against someone who is actually ready and waiting for him to throw a punch.

I'm tipping his boxing career will be as good as he went in those two GF appearances.

Wrong. He had a very good GF in 2005. But I don't expect you to remember very much of that game for the same reasons I try to forget the 06 game.

 

[L_W_P]

We say 4-5 years but I think it is closer to 8-10 years these days to fully rebuild particularly with the lack of youth at the Saints.

Players under 25 as of round 1 next year -

Essendon: 32
St. Kilda: 27

We don't know the quality yet becuase none of them got a real crack under Ross Lyon but I would say the rebuild is well and truly on...

 

[The Donners]

Players under 25 as of round 1 next year -

Essendon: 32
St. Kilda: 27

We don't know the quality yet becuase none of them got a real crack under Ross Lyon but I would say the rebuild is well and truly on...

Which of those players weren't getting a game under Lyon?

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

The only locks for top 4 are Collingwood, Hawks, Geelong.

I think all three of these teams have question marks over them and are certainly no guarantee of a top four finish. Not the least of which being all of these teams only playing GWS, GC and PA once in 2012. The fixture has been manipulated (to try to avoid blowouts as much as possible) to such an extent that I don't think it's outrageous to predict that a lesser team or two may finish in the top four because of this fact. The follow-on from this issue is that I predict the top four teams on the ladder will lose their four year stranglehold on the preliminary final berths.

Geelong will not win as many games in 2012 as they did in 2011 and their depth will be severely tested.

Retired

Ottens
Ling
Milburn
Mooney ( no real impact in 2011 but still depth)

JPod did a shoulder in the GF and was it Menzell who did a knee in the semi (he was looking very promising as well)

As promising as Menzel is, we got by ok without him in the two (and a half) biggest games of the season. Ottens is a big loss, but we've got enough AFL-calibre backup to hopefully hold our own against most teams. Ling is another big loss, but gives a young player an opportunity (and plenty have been blooded over the past two years). And while I love Mooney and what he did for Geelong, another year with him on the list would probably just be depriving Nathan Vardy and Mitch Brown of further development in the seniors. Both are more than ready, if their bodies permit.

Scarlett
Corey
Wodjinski all 30> and 2012 likely their last season

I'll give you Scarlett and no doubt, he will leave a huge void in the Geelong defence. But giving him the comparitive freedom of playing in a back pocket has done wonders for him, he was an All-Australian last year and there is no reason why he can't finish his career on a high note (assuming he sticks to his original intention of retiring after next year).

As for Corey and Wojcinski, that attitude frustrates me. Corey's rennaissance in 2011 was the most underrated factor in our premiership march, bar none. He was absolutely fantastic last year, missed out on the b&f by a whisker. I'm not sure how he's managed to go from being universally acknowledged as an elite midfielder in the early years of our dominance, to one of our most underrated players, but that's what's happened. With Wojcinski, I'd urge people to ignore the DOB and just look at his production. He hasn't lost a thing. Maybe it is his last year in 2012, but my bet is, if it is, he will be going out on his terms.

Have lost a ruck for the year already and drafted a 29 yr old for cover

Which ruck have we lost for the year? Ottens and Blake have retired; we have lost them permanently. Not sure why drafting a mature (and obviously capable) state level ruckman, given our situation, is a bad thing. Dawson Simpson and Trent West have shown (individually) that they can be long-term solutions as ruckmen for our club. Nathan Vardy is exciting, though his build (and his hip injury/interrupted pre-season) suggests he may be better suited to the forward line. Orren Stephenson has dominated the VFL for several years and there is little doubt that he will be able to hold his own in the AFL, without being a superstar. To me, that looks like an ok ruck division and I think I'd still rather have our ruckmen than what our two closest rivals in 2011 currently have.

Above is 1/3 of the 2011 GF side as either retired, injured or in their last year.

Ling and Ottens were in their last year for us in 2011 and that seemed to work out ok. Pods will be fine; he may have a slow start, but there's no doubt he will be at least as good in 2012 as he was in 2011. Plus, with a bit of luck, Hawkins will continue his progress from late in the 2011 to start developing into the long-term leader of a forward line consisting of Brown, Vardy, Kersten and others.

Geelongs depth will be severely tested in 2012 and IMO they won't have the luxury of resting key players as they did in 2011.

Disagree. I think a key factor (as was the case in 2011) is getting early wins on the board. Splitting the first two games against Fremantle (a) and Hawthorn, then taking a minimum of six of the next nine games (NM, Ric, BL, Mel, Ade, Col, WB, GWS, Car) seems like a realistic and very achievable goal, that will give the Cats some breathing space in the top six and allow them to focus on taking eight or nine of their last eleven games. It will be similar to 2011, with a regular squad of about 30-32 players comprised of the following:

Tall defenders
Tom Lonergan

Tall/medium defenders
Matthew Scarlett
Harry Taylor
Tom Gillies
Andrew Mackie

Small defenders
Corey Enright
Josh Hunt

Small defenders/midfielders
David Wojcinski
Taylor Hunt
Cam Guthrie

Midfielders
Joel Selwood
Jimmy Bartel
James Kelly
Joel Corey
Simon Hogan
Josh Cowan
Steven Motlop

Rucks
Trent West
Dawson Simpson
Orren Stephenson

Ruck/tall forward
Nathan Vardy

Tall forwards
James Podsiadly
Tom Hawkins
Mitch Brown

Midfielders/small forwards
Paul Chapman
Steve Johnson
Mathew Stokes
Shannon Byrnes
Travis Varcoe
Mitch Duncan
Allen Christensen
Daniel Menzel

And these are only the players who have already played an AFL game (besides Stephenson). It would be expected that Billie Smedts (189cm utility, 2010 first round pick), George Horlin-Smith (186cm utility, 2010 second round pick), Jordan Schroder (182cm midfielder, 2010 third round pic) and one or two of Stephenson's fellow 2011 draftees (Joel Hamling, Shane Kersten, Jordan Murdoch, Lincoln McCarthy) to make their debut.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Oh and a prediction: Average teams who are looking at a game against the Suns as a guaranteed win (particularly in the second half of the season) will be in for a rude shock.

 

[hawkman]

Oh and a prediction: Average teams who are looking at a game against the Suns as a guaranteed win (particularly in the second half of the season) will be in for a rude shock.

Agreed. I think they will be much more competitive than people think on here

 

[L_W_P]

Which of those players weren't getting a game under Lyon?

I would say the only 2 who got a real chance were McEvoy and Steven. Armitage got games but it was as a forward, when he is clearly an inside mid.

The rest are all unknown (Stanley, Simpkin etc) or new to the club (Saad, draftees)

My point wasn't that we had gun youth waiting to go, it was that we are already rebuilding the list with youth. Hopefully they will get given the chances that guys like Zaharakis, Monfries, Carlisle etc have had. You can't develop fully if you don't play

 

[Aucklander]

Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn or Geelong as Premiers. My personal favourite to win is, Carlton.

GWS to finish last, GC to continue to play exciting footy and finish mid table, with the rest just making up the numbers.

 

[Old Skool]

Geelongs descent will begin, the aging top end and the loss of Ottens and Ling cannot be underestimated.

Sydney and StKilda will be under serious pressure to maintain a top 8 spot.

Freo and North to make the finals.

There will be very little difference between sides 3 to 10. Any side finishing in the top 8 outside of Collingwood and Hawthorn will be capable of playing in the preliminary final, or even the grand final if the Pies and Hawks somehow draw each other in a prelim.

Premiers: The least injury depleted side on the day out of Collingwood and Hawthorn.

Brownlow: Marc Murphy

Coleman: Drew Petrie.

Spooners: GWS to remain winless.