2012 Predictions Pt.II

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Oh and a prediction: Average teams who are looking at a game against the Suns as a guaranteed win (particularly in the second half of the season) will be in for a rude shock.

This. Looking at their run after the bye mid-season, they have (Home games in italics)...

West Coast (GC off the bye, WCE off travelling to play Collingwood)
Geelong
Richmond
Brisbane
Sydney

Melbourne
GWS
Hawthorn
Carlton
Adelaide


I can see Gold Coast winning any one of those games with the exception of the Hawthorn game. And given possible resting from Hawthorn who even knows about that one. I can see Gold Coast racking up a number of wins in the second half of the year. I'm personally glad Essendon play Gold Coast in Round 3 nice and early on. I expect the future powerhouse to start showing some ominous amount of muscle as the year goes on.




Not doing a ladder, but expecting the following.

- A winless season is about as likely as an undefeated season. Even Freo dodged the bullet a decade ago. GWS next year is the best chance of it ever happening. Not sure what they will be like, but I wouldn't be shocked by anywhere between 0-2 wins. Anything more than that and I will be.

- 8 to 15 will not be very different quality wise. Finishing 15th doesn't necessarily make a team woeful. Finishing 8th won't necessarily mean a team is good. 1-6/7 should be solid, 15-18 should be solidly shocking.

- Expecting Collingwood to crack a little, nowhere near the season they had this year. Also expecting Hawthorn to drop games people certainly aren't expecting them to lose at this point in time.

I really have very little to predict, I just want the damn season to start already.
 
Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn or Geelong as Premiers. My personal favourite to win is, Carlton.

GWS to finish last, GC to continue to play exciting footy and finish mid table, with the rest just making up the numbers.

Looking at our fixture, I'm more concerned about playing GC at Metricon than I am the Dees or Dogs in Melbourne.
 

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Yep, I could understand that. It should actually be a pretty good game.

I'm not one of those who believes that GC (and GWS for that matter) are guaranteed to win flags due to their draft concessions but I am sure that Metricon is going to be a very difficult place to win and that will happen sooner rather than later.
 
I'm not one of those who believes that GC (and GWS for that matter) are guaranteed to win flags due to their draft concessions but I am sure that Metricon is going to be a very difficult place to win and that will happen sooner rather than later.

Certainly takes time to develop young kids, but I think GC have got a better start than GWS mainly due to the quality of their senior players.

I think GC will play finals within 2 years and agree Metricon will be a hard place to win at.
 
1. West Coast
2. Carlton
3. Collingwood
4. Geelong
5. Fremantle
6. Hawthorn
7. N Melbourne
8. W Bulldogs
-----------------

9. Adelaide
10. Essendon
11. Sydney
12. Brisbane
13. St. Kilda
14. Melbourne
15. Richmond
16. Gold Coast
17. Port Adelaide
18. GWS Giants

Seems that I concur with quite a few others when I say next season will be very even with no standout team (ala 1993). 15-17 wins will get top spot. Talented young sides such as the Eagles, Blues, and Freo too will really be gunning for the more experienced sides in Cats, Pies, and Hawks next season, which will make things interesting. Only Port and GWS cannot make the 8 next year IMO, sides from 7-15th are every chance to do so and should be aiming to play finals in 2012.
Premiers could be anyone from that top 4, however I'm leaning very slightly towards the Pies. Will be interesting to see how the Malthouse-Buckley transition pans out of course, but Collingwood will be hungry, motivated, and keen to atone for this year ala Geelong 2009. No Malthouse circus, pressure, and poor form/run with injuries towards the pointy end of the season will most likely help their cause, too.
Many seem to be predicting a drop from the Eagles, but I don't think this will be the case. Wonderful side on paper and LeCras/Kennedy should kick around 120-130 goals between them IMO. 2012 will be Carltons coming of age also; a key forward such as Fev and I'd be backing them for the flag.
Cats have too much depth and quality youngsters/fringe players to fall away completely and will hang around the mark for a little while (ala Sydney), should finish between at least 5-8 for the next 2-3 seasons. St. Kilda, on the other hand, will slide for the next 2-3 years before bottoming out, just don't like the way they have gone about it by topping up their list with recycled players/duds/poor youngsters. Depth is not 100% as a result.
Also don't think Hawthorn will go as well as many are expecting. Sure, they persevered in spite of a tough run with injuries in the first half of this year, but a tougher draw will do them no favours. Will go 1-3 from their first 4 games IMO (will lose to Pies, Cats, and Eagles at Subi but defeat the Crows), setting them on the back foot early.
Adelaide and the Dogs are the two most underrated sides in the competition and will really surprise a few. With quality new coaches, both will show real heart and spirit and begin the season like a rocket, before form/injuries take their toll later in the year. If Cooney, Lake (a big if) and Griffen all fire (not to mention Boyd, who is a very big Brownlow chance next year) and their youngsters show some promise (saw glimpses of it during this season, particularly with Dahlhaus), then the Doggies could trouble a few in 2012. Brisbane may fall into this bracket too if Vossy is able to string things together.
On Essendon and Sydney, I should probably have them in the top 8 (and they probably will finish in there too). Enough talent in both teams to consistently hang around the mark, and in the Bombers case, young talent (and wonderful coaching staff such as Thompson and Hird at their disposal) that will lead to improvement.
 
1. West Coast
2. Carlton
3. Collingwood
4. Geelong
5. Fremantle
6. Hawthorn
7. N Melbourne
8. W Bulldogs
-----------------

9. Adelaide
10. Essendon
11. Sydney
12. Brisbane
13. St. Kilda
14. Melbourne
15. Richmond
16. Gold Coast
17. Port Adelaide
18. GWS Giants

Agree with just about all of that. Don't think West Coast have the list to win the minor premiership, however. Also convinced GC will finish 17th.
 
As promising as Menzel is, we got by ok without him in the two (and a half) biggest games of the season. Ottens is a big loss, but we've got enough AFL-calibre backup to hopefully hold our own against most teams. Ling is another big loss, but gives a young player an opportunity (and plenty have been blooded over the past two years). And while I love Mooney and what he did for Geelong, another year with him on the list would probably just be depriving Nathan Vardy and Mitch Brown of further development in the seniors. Both are more than ready, if their bodies permit.

I'll give you Scarlett and no doubt, he will leave a huge void in the Geelong defence. But giving him the comparitive freedom of playing in a back pocket has done wonders for him, he was an All-Australian last year and there is no reason why he can't finish his career on a high note (assuming he sticks to his original intention of retiring after next year).

As for Corey and Wojcinski, that attitude frustrates me. Corey's rennaissance in 2011 was the most underrated factor in our premiership march, bar none. He was absolutely fantastic last year, missed out on the b&f by a whisker. I'm not sure how he's managed to go from being universally acknowledged as an elite midfielder in the early years of our dominance, to one of our most underrated players, but that's what's happened. With Wojcinski, I'd urge people to ignore the DOB and just look at his production. He hasn't lost a thing. Maybe it is his last year in 2012, but my bet is, if it is, he will be going out on his terms.

Which ruck have we lost for the year? Ottens and Blake have retired; we have lost them permanently. Not sure why drafting a mature (and obviously capable) state level ruckman, given our situation, is a bad thing. Dawson Simpson and Trent West have shown (individually) that they can be long-term solutions as ruckmen for our club. Nathan Vardy is exciting, though his build (and his hip injury/interrupted pre-season) suggests he may be better suited to the forward line. Orren Stephenson has dominated the VFL for several years and there is little doubt that he will be able to hold his own in the AFL, without being a superstar. To me, that looks like an ok ruck division and I think I'd still rather have our ruckmen than what our two closest rivals in 2011 currently have.

Disagree. I think a key factor (as was the case in 2011) is getting early wins on the board. Splitting the first two games against Fremantle (a) and Hawthorn, then taking a minimum of six of the next nine games (NM, Ric, BL, Mel, Ade, Col, WB, GWS, Car) seems like a realistic and very achievable goal, that will give the Cats some breathing space in the top six and allow them to focus on taking eight or nine of their last eleven games. It will be similar to 2011, with a regular squad of about 30-32 players comprised of the following:

Tall defenders
Tom Lonergan

Tall/medium defenders
Matthew Scarlett
Harry Taylor
Tom Gillies
Andrew Mackie

Small defenders
Corey Enright
Josh Hunt

Small defenders/midfielders
David Wojcinski
Taylor Hunt

Midfielders
Joel Selwood
Jimmy Bartel
James Kelly
Joel Corey

Rucks
Trent West
Dawson Simpson
Orren Stephenson

Ruck/tall forward
Nathan Vardy

Tall forwards
James Podsiadly
Tom Hawkins
Mitch Brown

Midfielders/small forwards
Paul Chapman
Steve Johnson
Mathew Stokes
Shannon Byrnes
Travis Varcoe
Mitch Duncan
Allen Christensen
Daniel Menzel

Trimed down the post a little as it was pretty big.

The ruckman you've lost is Vardy, with the operation he's just had he will struggle to make an impact in 2012.

West in the ruck looks to have gone up another level but after that your rucks are unproven at AFL level.

JPod's shoulder will be a concern in 2012, if any player needs strong shoulders its a leading full forward. The Cats KP forwards are a tad inconsistant, what you do have is very good medium small forwards who can play through the midfield.

Corey only just made it back for the finals due to injury, sure he played well early on but age and injuries are accruing and don't be surprised if Corey's output slides in 2012.

Wodjinski I do admit still has a spring in his step and has retained his pace, I recall he had injury concerns prior to 2011 but again won't be surprised if he starts to drop off.

I've highlighted in blue the players the Cats can't afford top lose through injury the most, mainly due to what will replace them.

The difference between top 4 and top 8 is 5>10%, the difference between being premiers and runners up is less than this. The real question for any team is will you improve or slide by this 5>10%. If Geelong slide by 10% they will drop to btween 8th>5th and with retirements, current injuries and a couple of new ones I can see that being more likely than not. As I've said before teams don't stay up forever and Geelong have been fantastic for 5>6 years straight.
 
1. Geelong
2. Collingwood
3. Carlton
4. Hawthorn
5. West Coast
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Melbourne
8. Richmond
9. Sydney
10. Essendon
11. St Kilda
12. North Melbourne
13. Fremantle
14. Adelaide
15. Gold Coast
16. Brisbane
17. Port Adelaide
18. GWS

NAB Cup - Carlton
Premiership - Geelong
Brownlow - Judd
Coleman - Franklin
 
1. Collingwood
2. Hawthorn
3. Carlton
4. Geelong
5. West Coast
6. North Melbourne
7. Sydney
8. Adelaide
9. Essendon
10. Richmond
11. Fremantle
12. St Kilda
13. Melbourne
14. Brisbane
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Port
17. Gold Coast
18. GWS

Collingwood- Won't bother with the preseason cup so wont run out of steam at the business end of the season, possible question marks over coaching change but best team as far as I'm concerned at this point in time.
Hawthorn- Really looked good last season and have a good balance so should do very well.
Carlton- If they can get Waite and Kruzer out there for the entire season then really should challenge.
Geelong- Will come back to the pack just a little but still a very good side.
West Coast- Have a much harder draw and will need repeat efforts from Glass, Cox, Kerr (if fit) and Embley but have some good kids coming thru so should do well.
North Melbourne- I feel have the most balanced team outside of the top 4 mixed with a very good draw so should start to see results next yr.
Sydney- Get a couple of GWS games, play Port and GC away and usually win enough home games to finish around this mark.
Adelaide- I dont rate this highly but play GWS, GC, Port and Freo all twice so should win 6+ games out of that, should be able to win another 6 at AAMI or against lesser sides.
Essendon- A good young side will just slip a bit but should very much challenge for the 8 again.
Richmond- Really have to start challenging and this would be the lowest I would expect if I was a Richmond fan, should challenge for top 8 at season end.
Fremantle- A hard side to place, with a better injury run should finish better but a lot of question marks over personel and coaching/ game plan changes so cant place them higher than this.
St Kilda- Aging list too reliant on older stars and havent found any young guns to replace them, new coach so I think will slide in 2012.
Melbourne- Need to start improving but not sure where it is going to come from, the loss of Scully hurts and the gain of Clark isnt that significant I cant see much from them in 2012 but should have enough experience not to finish amoungst the bottom sides.
Brisbane- Building a good young side but inexperience will hurt.
Western Bulldogs- The loss of Hall will hurt, they dont really have anyone else who kicks goals apart from Giansiracusa so will struggle I feel
Port- Very lucky that GWS and GC came in or else they would have had a couple of wooden spoons to their name.
Gold Coast- Still very young.
GWS- Even younger.
 
1. Collingwood
2. Hawthorn
3. Carlton
4. Geelong
5. West Coast
6. North Melbourne
7. Sydney
8. Adelaide
9. Essendon
10. Richmond
11. Fremantle
12. St Kilda
13. Melbourne
14. Brisbane
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Port
17. Gold Coast
18. GWS

Collingwood- Won't bother with the preseason cup so wont run out of steam at the business end of the season, possible question marks over coaching change but best team as far as I'm concerned at this point in time.
Hawthorn- Really looked good last season and have a good balance so should do very well.
Carlton- If they can get Waite and Kruzer out there for the entire season then really should challenge.
Geelong- Will come back to the pack just a little but still a very good side.
West Coast- Have a much harder draw and will need repeat efforts from Glass, Cox, Kerr (if fit) and Embley but have some good kids coming thru so should do well.
North Melbourne- I feel have the most balanced team outside of the top 4 mixed with a very good draw so should start to see results next yr.
Sydney- Get a couple of GWS games, play Port and GC away and usually win enough home games to finish around this mark.
Adelaide- I dont rate this highly but play GWS, GC, Port and Freo all twice so should win 6+ games out of that, should be able to win another 6 at AAMI or against lesser sides.
Essendon- A good young side will just slip a bit but should very much challenge for the 8 again.
Richmond- Really have to start challenging and this would be the lowest I would expect if I was a Richmond fan, should challenge for top 8 at season end.
Fremantle- A hard side to place, with a better injury run should finish better but a lot of question marks over personel and coaching/ game plan changes so cant place them higher than this.
St Kilda- Aging list too reliant on older stars and havent found any young guns to replace them, new coach so I think will slide in 2012.
Melbourne- Need to start improving but not sure where it is going to come from, the loss of Scully hurts and the gain of Clark isnt that significant I cant see much from them in 2012 but should have enough experience not to finish amoungst the bottom sides.
Brisbane- Building a good young side but inexperience will hurt.
Western Bulldogs- The loss of Hall will hurt, they dont really have anyone else who kicks goals apart from Giansiracusa so will struggle I feel
Port- Very lucky that GWS and GC came in or else they would have had a couple of wooden spoons to their name.
Gold Coast- Still very young.
GWS- Even younger.

Agree with your top5, I have it in the same order!

Collingwood
Hawthorn
Carlton
Geelong
WCE
Fremantle
Sydney
Nort Melbourne
Adelaide
Essendon
Richmond
St Kilda
Melbourne
Brisbane
Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast
Greater Western Sydney


Premiers: Collingwood
Runners Up: Hawthorn
Brownlow Medal: Sam Mitchell/Marc Murphy
Coleman Medal: Lance Franklin
Wooden Spoon: GWS
Rising Star: John Patten
 

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1. Collingwood
2. Hawthorn
3. Carlton
4. Geelong
5. West Coast
6. North Melbourne
7. Sydney
8. Adelaide
9. Essendon
10. Richmond
11. Fremantle
12. St Kilda
13. Melbourne
14. Brisbane
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Port
17. Gold Coast
18. GWS

Collingwood- Won't bother with the preseason cup so wont run out of steam at the business end of the season, possible question marks over coaching change but best team as far as I'm concerned at this point in time.
Hawthorn- Really looked good last season and have a good balance so should do very well.
Carlton- If they can get Waite and Kruzer out there for the entire season then really should challenge.
Geelong- Will come back to the pack just a little but still a very good side.
West Coast- Have a much harder draw and will need repeat efforts from Glass, Cox, Kerr (if fit) and Embley but have some good kids coming thru so should do well.
North Melbourne- I feel have the most balanced team outside of the top 4 mixed with a very good draw so should start to see results next yr.
Sydney- Get a couple of GWS games, play Port and GC away and usually win enough home games to finish around this mark.
Adelaide- I dont rate this highly but play GWS, GC, Port and Freo all twice so should win 6+ games out of that, should be able to win another 6 at AAMI or against lesser sides.
Essendon- A good young side will just slip a bit but should very much challenge for the 8 again.
Richmond- Really have to start challenging and this would be the lowest I would expect if I was a Richmond fan, should challenge for top 8 at season end.
Fremantle- A hard side to place, with a better injury run should finish better but a lot of question marks over personel and coaching/ game plan changes so cant place them higher than this.
St Kilda- Aging list too reliant on older stars and havent found any young guns to replace them, new coach so I think will slide in 2012.
Melbourne- Need to start improving but not sure where it is going to come from, the loss of Scully hurts and the gain of Clark isnt that significant I cant see much from them in 2012 but should have enough experience not to finish amoungst the bottom sides.
Brisbane- Building a good young side but inexperience will hurt.
Western Bulldogs- The loss of Hall will hurt, they dont really have anyone else who kicks goals apart from Giansiracusa so will struggle I feel
Port- Very lucky that GWS and GC came in or else they would have had a couple of wooden spoons to their name.
Gold Coast- Still very young.
GWS- Even younger.


not sure why we "really have to start to challenge" considering we are year 3 into a complete rebuild. we may make the 8 but i dont see it as a bad thing either if we dont. just want to see improvement ie more games won, no beatings, better %, better effort against top 4 etc.
 
1. Hawthorn
2. Geelong
3. Collingwood
4. Carlton
5. Fremantle
6. Essendon
7. St. Kilda
8. Melbourne
9. Richmond
10. West Coast
11. Sydney
12. Western Bulldogs
13. North Melbourne
14. Brisbane
15. Port Adelaide
16. Adelaide
17. Gold Coast
18. GWS

Hawks to beat Cats in another Gf
 
Hawthorn
Collingwood
Carlton
Geelong
Fremantle
WCE
North Melbourne
Adelaide
Sydney
Essendon
St Kilda
Richmond
Western Bulldogs
Melbourne
Brisbane
Port Adelaide
Gold Coast
GWS


Premiers: Hawks
Runners Up: Carlton
Brownlow Medal: Scott Pendlebury
Coleman Medal: Lance Franklin
Wooden Spoon: GWS
Rising Star: Dom Tyson
 
not sure why we "really have to start to challenge" considering we are year 3 into a complete rebuild. we may make the 8 but i dont see it as a bad thing either if we dont. just want to see improvement ie more games won, no beatings, better %, better effort against top 4 etc.

Wait you mean that you only started your rebuild 3 drafts/yrs ago? GTFO! Its 2012 now mate so I dont think that anyone is buying Richmond being in only their third yr of a rebuild.

Three yrs ago you'd already drafted Cotchin, Riewoldt, Vickery, Post, Rance, Edwards just at a glance at your list and all vital parts of your team. I probly assumed Delidio was the start of the rebuild and that could be wrong but you definitely started your second rebuild with Riewoldt in 2006 and that is now 6 yrs ago now so there is no chance that you are in the third yr of your rebuild if you dont believe this your dreaming.

I actually did mean it as a compliment as I think Richmond have one of the best young lists out of the bottom 8 sides but if you dont start challenging soon what happens? Do you start another rebuild?

Perhaps you dont like the way I worded it but if you achieve all the things that your talking about (wins, %, better efforts) then you should be close to the top 8.
 
Oh and a prediction: Average teams who are looking at a game against the Suns as a guaranteed win (particularly in the second half of the season) will be in for a rude shock.
Disagree. They won't be so easy to beat, but they will be harder to beat in the first half (not second half).

Still plenty of young, skinny bodies who will tire out quicker than most other lists. Can't remember when Essendon are playing them but any time after July should be easy pickings.
 
Wait you mean that you only started your rebuild 3 drafts/yrs ago? GTFO! Its 2012 now mate so I dont think that anyone is buying Richmond being in only their third yr of a rebuild.

Three yrs ago you'd already drafted Cotchin, Riewoldt, Vickery, Post, Rance, Edwards just at a glance at your list and all vital parts of your team. I probly assumed Delidio was the start of the rebuild and that could be wrong but you definitely started your second rebuild with Riewoldt in 2006 and that is now 6 yrs ago now so there is no chance that you are in the third yr of your rebuild if you dont believe this your dreaming.

I actually did mean it as a compliment as I think Richmond have one of the best young lists out of the bottom 8 sides but if you dont start challenging soon what happens? Do you start another rebuild?

Perhaps you dont like the way I worded it but if you achieve all the things that your talking about (wins, %, better efforts) then you should be close to the top 8.

I agree most with what you're saying in principle but the fact of the matter is, there's no other team in the AFL that's cleared out more players in 2 years than what RFC have.

Of course some players survived the cull, but most didn't. 65% of our best 22 weren't on our list in 2010. 2012 is another development year plain and simple.

We won't make the 8 in 2012, if we do then it's been a monumental effort from Hardwick to get us there in a short time considering the basket case he inherited. The claws will be out for us and they already are but I think most supporters are ready for it....we've only been copping it for 30 + years, what's another year?
 
I agree most with what you're saying in principle but the fact of the matter is, there's no other team in the AFL that's cleared out more players in 2 years than what RFC have.

Of course some players survived the cull, but most didn't. 65% of our best 22 weren't on our list in 2010. 2012 is another development year plain and simple.

We won't make the 8 in 2012, if we do then it's been a monumental effort from Hardwick to get us there in a short time considering the basket case he inherited. The claws will be out for us and they already are but I think most supporters are ready for it....we've only been copping it for 30 + years, what's another year?

Werent on your list or werent in your team?
 
I agree most with what you're saying in principle but the fact of the matter is, there's no other team in the AFL that's cleared out more players in 2 years than what RFC have.

Of course some players survived the cull, but most didn't. 65% of our best 22 weren't on our list in 2010. 2012 is another development year plain and simple.

We won't make the 8 in 2012, if we do then it's been a monumental effort from Hardwick to get us there in a short time considering the basket case he inherited. The claws will be out for us and they already are but I think most supporters are ready for it....we've only been copping it for 30 + years, what's another year?

Not sure if you read my previous post but I didnt say you would finish in the 8 but said that you would finish 10th but should be challenging for the 8. You had 8 wins this yr and I think you should improve if only slightly next yr, your fixture is far from terrible, with a couple more wins (say 10)you will be close to the 8, its pretty hard to split the teams from about 7th to 12th IMO.

There are some hurdles that your team needs to overcome, like beating the saints and the dogs, plus more competitive efforts against some of the top sides but I feel this is about the time for you guys to do this. I think the Tigers fans need to show a bit more support for their side. :thumbsu:
 
A lot of people have Freo in the 8, but I tend to agree to this...

The only thing that will keep Freo out of the 8 is above average / mid > long term injury numbers to key players.

Sandilands, Pavlich, Mundy, Fyfe and McFarlin are the players they need up and going, most others can be pretty well covered.

Lyons will drill them into playing a more accountable style of play but they have the list at the right age groupings to challenge.
 
Wait you mean that you only started your rebuild 3 drafts/yrs ago? GTFO! Its 2012 now mate so I dont think that anyone is buying Richmond being in only their third yr of a rebuild.

Three yrs ago you'd already drafted Cotchin, Riewoldt, Vickery, Post, Rance, Edwards just at a glance at your list and all vital parts of your team. I probly assumed Delidio was the start of the rebuild and that could be wrong but you definitely started your second rebuild with Riewoldt in 2006 and that is now 6 yrs ago now so there is no chance that you are in the third yr of your rebuild if you dont believe this your dreaming.

I actually did mean it as a compliment as I think Richmond have one of the best young lists out of the bottom 8 sides but if you dont start challenging soon what happens? Do you start another rebuild?

Perhaps you dont like the way I worded it but if you achieve all the things that your talking about (wins, %, better efforts) then you should be close to the top 8.

next season is the 3rd year since hardwick was appointed. yes there was players previous to his regime but there is a reason he was appointed bc THEY DID NOT WORK! we have delisted something like 35 players since he started, including most of the 27yo plus. this is a very comprehensive rebuild, call it second or third go at it, it doesnt matter but the fact is our list is very very young. the inference in your post was that they have had plenty of time to make the 8 which i agree with but NOT with this group. as i said im more interested in general up curve improvement to stop the occasional fluke good performances. i want sustained finals efforts.
 

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2012 Predictions Pt.II

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