2014 AFL Pre Season betting

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I'm just filthy I was too hungover to log on yesterday. Would've tailed that FGS for sheezy. Expensive night just became more expensive.

This site needs an alerts service for massive value bets. Membership must be earned.

And Grotto - there is often a boatload of value in FGS markets when bookies don't realise a defender will start forward. I remember McGuane last year started in the pocket and was $40+ (think that may also have been a Lenny pick up).
 
*** Gold Coast +19.5 points @ $1.91
** Matt Shaw most possessions group A @ $12.00
** Luke Russell most possessions group B @ $9.00
***** Daniel Rich most goals @ $26.00
** Harley Bennell first goal @ $21.00
**** Danny Stanley first goal @ $41.00
***** Daniel Merrett first goal @ $41.00
 

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End of the day we all have a common goal to make some money. Pretty childish to attack others and their bets/betting strategy

Exactly. :thumbsu:

We do not like to step in but will do if need be, it just comes down to a matter of maturity and respect for each other at the end of the day. Mocking people for losing bets will not be tolerated and we all lose bets or we would not need to work!
 
it just comes down to a matter of maturity and respect for each other at the end of the day
+1

Will try to keep this thread going in the right direction.

NAB Challenge - Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns

1U - Under Brisbane/GCS 180.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)
  • Think the Brisbane Lions will get on top in the midfield with the return of Rockliff/Redden/Moloney and co. but I'm not sure they are potent enough up forward.
  • A look at the FGS for the Brisbane Market has Luke McGuane, Lisle, Zorko, Merrett, Green (Sportsbet) which isn't all that potent, on paper anyway.
  • GCS don't usually play in high-scoring games and if they end up winning this game, I can't see them scoring much more than 85 points.
  • Looks like a few showers/thunderstorms forecasted for Townsville this afternoon/evening
  • Bit unsure as whether this should be a 1.5U play or not.
 
And Grotto - there is often a boatload of value in FGS markets when bookies don't realise a defender will start forward. I remember McGuane last year started in the pocket and was $40+

I do understand what you are saying when there is an opportunity in the market, you do need to exploit. With the odds on Reid at $41 I am not suggesting not to bet on that because there was an opportunity in the market to take overs. What I am stating is that betting long term on FGS where there is not good favourable odds will be less profitable.

However, with the betting literature I have been reading over the summer it states that exotic betting in the long run is not profitable.

Some punters that bet each week on FGS it will not be a profitable exercise. However, betting on Reid or any other player at those odds which occur rarely is maybe worth a punt.
 
I do understand what you are saying when there is an opportunity in the market, you do need to exploit. With the odds on Reid at $41 I am not suggesting not to bet on that because there was an opportunity in the market to take overs. What I am stating is that betting long term on FGS where there is not good favourable odds will be less profitable.

However, with the betting literature I have been reading over the summer it states that exotic betting in the long run is not profitable.

Some punters that bet each week on FGS it will not be a profitable exercise. However, betting on Reid or any other player at those odds which occur rarely is maybe worth a punt.
Mate I think you need to return to the "literature" and get a firm grasp of the concept of value. Betting when the odds aren't in your favour won't be less profitable - it won't be profitable full stop - not long term anyway.

The reason exotic betting is usually a waste of time is that the odds are, in general, woeful. Markets on some of these bets will be framed well over 120%.
 
Mate I think you need to return to the "literature" and get a firm grasp of the concept of value. Betting when the odds aren't in your favour won't be less profitable - it won't be profitable full stop - not long term anyway.

The reason exotic betting is usually a waste of time is that the odds are, in general, woeful. Markets on some of these bets will be framed well over 120%.

By saying less profitable, I was implying that it wont be profitable.

I dont disagree with your assertion.
 

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I do understand what you are saying when there is an opportunity in the market, you do need to exploit. With the odds on Reid at $41 I am not suggesting not to bet on that because there was an opportunity in the market to take overs. What I am stating is that betting long term on FGS where there is not good favourable odds will be less profitable.
if this was your original point, and not that "FGS bettors are have a gambling problem", then it would have been a fine, if not incredibly basic, point

i'd strongly suggest not taking any "literature" simply at face value and actually putting some thought into whether you agree with or reject the premises. personally, i'd be incredibly wary of any betting "literature" that tells you to put a line through any kind of betting - whether it be H2H, lines or props

it's possible to find value in a 250% market, it's also possible for a 105% market to have no value at all. of course you are often going to find no value at all in prop markets but that doesn't mean you dismiss them out of hand at all times
 
Bit pedantic I know but was regretting the extra 0.5U, especially at HT.
Very low scoring 3rd term makes the line 178.5 now. Taken that at $1.85 for 0.5U to hedge out.
 
NAB Challenge - Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns
1U - Under Brisbane/GCS 180.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365) W
0.5U - Under Brisbane/GCS 180.5 @ $1.88 (Sportsbet) W

0.5U - Over Brisbane/GCS 178.5 @ $1.85 (Bet365) L

Result 2 - 1 - 0 (+0.84U)

2014 NAB Challenge:
15 – 12 – 0 @ 56% (+14.08U) – ROI 45.9%


Looks like the hedge wasn't needed but more than happy with the result considering I was looking at a 1.5U loss at HT.
 
Thoughts on Carlton/Adelaide tomorrow?

Carlton were impressive against us last week and the Crows were in their match as well.
Hard one to pick.

Crows played against a Power C team, let alone B team. Betts is not playing tomorrow for them.
 
Can't wait for the real season to begin, over these mickey mouse games already!

We are still over 19 days away from the start of the AFL season.:(

Personally, I havent minded the NAB challenge, bit of wake up call that the AFL betting season is about to really begin in earnest in a months time.:thumbsu:
 
We are still over 19 days away from the start of the AFL season.:(

Personally, I havent minded the NAB challenge, bit of wake up call that the AFL betting season is about to really begin in earnest in a months time.:thumbsu:

Feburary has been a slow-ish month! Can't wait for the real stuff as teams will be going in with 100% effort which makes it easier to bet on IMO.
North & Freo are two teams playing lazy footy so far in the NAB Challenge.


Clearly there is still money to be made in these preseason games, as many posters have shown.
i think i need to bet bigger stakes and go for single H2H bets or at the line.
Multi's are to risky and i lose to often with them.
I'm still a new punter only started last year, hoping i have a better run in 2014!
 
Feburary has been a slow-ish month! Can't wait for the real stuff as teams will be going in with 100% effort which makes it easier to bet on IMO.
North & Freo are two teams playing lazy footy so far in the NAB Challenge.


Clearly there is still money to be made in these preseason games, as many posters have shown.
i think i need to bet bigger stakes and go for single H2H bets or at the line.
Multi's are to risky and i lose to often with them.
I'm still a new punter only started last year, hoping i have a better run in 2014!

Just take it easy, there is no rush. Plenty of good punters in here offering good advice.

Be cautious and only bet what you can afford to lose. It is a learning process and make sure you keep good records of your bets so you can make a descent analysis during and at the end of the season. Importantly learn from your mistakes and remember every bet no matter how good it is has the potential to lose.
 

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2014 AFL Pre Season betting

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