2015 - AFL Round 21

[DerpWerls]

0.5U Adelaide -49.5 @ $2.50
0.5U Adelaide -55.5 @ $3.00
0.5U Adelaide -59.5 @ $3.50
0.5U West Coast -29.5 @ $2.40
2U Hawthorn -40.5 @ $1.91
$40 Hawthorn -14.5 @ $2.00

 

[chrisdon16]

Early totals. Spat out some overs this week:
Collingwood/Richmond - over 163.5
GWS/Sydney - over 166.5
North/Freo - over 168.5
Melbourne/Carlton - over 170.5

 

[chrisdon16]

0.5U Adelaide -49.5 @ $2.50
0.5U Adelaide -55.5 @ $3.00
0.5U Adelaide -59.5 @ $3.50
0.5U West Coast -29.5 @ $2.40

If crows win by 49 I'll buy you a froffy

 

[Invincible_X]

Any small time multi tip guys, last week freo destroyed all my other winnings.

 

[nooblet]

does stop betting multis class as a tip?

 

[Robo87]

normally i stay away from multis, but i did a small-bet 9-leg multi last week that just consisted of the total points (extremes) just for laughs. it came off.

 

[dandyjester]

like the Bulldogs and Roos chances as underdogs this weekend H2H.
added some line bets hoping for some middles closer to game day.

1U Kangaroos H2H @2.05 (sports)
2U Kangaroos +3.5 @1.91 (Bet365)

1U W.Bulldogs H2H @3.20 (sports)
4U W.Bulldogs +21.5 @1.91 (ladbrokes)
1U W.B/Eagles over 179.5 @1.88 (sports)

5U Adelaide -37.5 @1.92 (crown)

 

[csnody]

Early totals. Spat out some overs this week:
Collingwood/Richmond - over 163.5
GWS/Sydney - over 166.5
North/Freo - over 168.5
Melbourne/Carlton - over 170.5

Tailed. Let's get up this weekend

 

[Invincible_X]

How much is 1u as most guys mention it in their bets?
Still a noob

 

[Robo87]

How much is 1u as most guys mention it in their bets?
Still a noob

i will try to explain to the best of my knowledge..
1U = 1 Unit. 1 Unit is different for each person according to what they can afford/want to bet. It could be equal to how much they would place on 1 'normal' bet / a 50/50 chance bet.
So because each persons 'unit size' is different, some often talk in unit amounts rather than $$amounts. Therefore giving a better indication of how much confidence people have with their different bets.

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Why are some so against multis?

 

[free at last]

Any small time multi tip guys, last week freo destroyed all my other winnings.

I've just put on a 5 leg multi with Hawks,cats,crows,Suns and freo

SB promo bet if one leg fails,money back.

 

[balmainforever]

i will try to explain to the best of my knowledge..
1U = 1 Unit. 1 Unit is different for each person according to what they can afford/want to bet. It could be equal to how much they would place on 1 'normal' bet / a 50/50 chance bet.
So because each persons 'unit size' is different, some often talk in unit amounts rather than $$amounts. Therefore giving a better indication of how much confidence people have with their different bets.

1 unit is usually 1% of their bank.

 

[DerpWerls]

If crows win by 49 I'll buy you a froffy

It wouldn't surprise me

 

[bombersbackyard]

Why are some so against multis?

With a multi you are essentially locking in your winnings and rolling them into your next bet. It can work to your advantage if you get a good price or a good line on the legs, alternatively it can work against you if there are late outs etc. If you play singles you have more control over your money. The only time you should really multi is if the games are on at the same time and you have limited money available. You have to ask yourself if you want to try to consistently make money or if you just want to do $10 slick pick like multis where you should basically donate that to charity. Say there are two games on the Saturday night , you take both at the line and you play them separately for 200ea. One covers and one doesn't you will be 1-1 and just down on the juice. If you were to multi both you would be 0-1 and down 200. I'm sure everyone's experienced the let down of 1 leg letting you down in a huge 6-7 leg multi all either margins or spreads. If you believe in each of those legs then you really should be playing them singularly. If you were to play all the legs singularly you would be like 6-1 and up 5 units or so. Say if your last leg in your multi was Brisbane to beat Carlton and you're about to get a decent pay out, ask yourself would you really put all that money on Brisbane in a single bet. There's a reason all the bookies offer multi promos... And it's not out of good will.

 

[DerpWerls]

Thoughts on Richmond 40+ @ $2.15 against Essendon MCG next week?

 

[theomanos24]

Hawks
Richmond
Swans
Geelong
Adelaide
West coast
Melbourne
North Melbourne
Sun's my tips what do u think?

 

[DerpWerls]

STANDBYHIRD12 multis are very lucrative for bookies I believe.

 

[Spads]

Why are some so against multis?

Multis are a mugs bet.

Bookies margins increase exponentially as additional legs are added. Eg: Line bets are intended to have a 50% chance of winning, so the fair odds for a line wager equals 2.00. For a two-leg multi the betting odds are 1.91*1.91 = 3.65, while the fair odds are 2*2 = 4. If you placed individual legs your return is 1.91+1.91 = 3.82.

The bookmaker margin for a single bet is 104.7%, meaning the bookmaker will make a 4.7% profit on the event if equal amounts are wagered on both outcomes. For a 2 leg multi its 109.6%, and for a four-leg multi the margin jumps to 120.2%.

 

[Spads]

With a multi you are essentially locking in your winnings and rolling them into your next bet. It can work to your advantage if you get a good price or a good line on the legs, alternatively it can work against you if there are late outs etc. If you play singles you have more control over your money. The only time you should really multi is if the games are on at the same time and you have limited money available. You have to ask yourself if you want to try to consistently make money or if you just want to do $10 slick pick like multis where you should basically donate that to charity. Say there are two games on the Saturday night , you take both at the line and you play them separately for 200ea. One covers and one doesn't you will be 1-1 and just down on the juice. If you were to multi both you would be 0-1 and down 200. I'm sure everyone's experienced the let down of 1 leg letting you down in a huge 6-7 leg multi all either margins or spreads. If you believe in each of those legs then you really should be playing them singularly. If you were to play all the legs singularly you would be like 6-1 and up 5 units or so. Say if your last leg in your multi was Brisbane to beat Carlton and you're about to get a decent pay out, ask yourself would you really put all that money on Brisbane in a single bet. There's a reason all the bookies offer multi promos... And it's not out of good will.

This is just plain incorrect. It's simpler than this. It's multiplication.

 

[bombersbackyard]

Thoughts on Richmond 40+ @ $2.15 against Essendon MCG next week?

looks good, the line should move out after richmond beat collingwood and we lose to gold coast

 

[chrisdon16]

Thoughts on Richmond 40+ @ $2.15 against Essendon MCG next week?

Should win by 60+, especially wanting % for the final 8. Looks like a solid bet. But, remember, weather.

 

[bombersbackyard]

Multis are a mugs bet.

Bookies margins increase exponentially as additional legs are added. Eg: Line bets are intended to have a 50% chance of winning, so the fair odds for a line wager equals 2.00. For a two-leg multi the betting odds are 1.91*1.91 = 3.65, while the fair odds are 2*2 = 4. If you placed individual legs your return is 1.91+1.91 = 3.82.

The bookmaker margin for a single bet is 104.7%, meaning the bookmaker will make a 4.7% profit on the event if equal amounts are wagered on both outcomes. For a 2 leg multi its 109.6%, and for a four-leg multi the margin jumps to 120.2%.

i didn't really think of it like this, well said.

i know this thread title is round 21 but for those looking ahead there are a few disparities between Crown and SB that i've noticed for round 22. If you can anticipate the results this round you may be able to lock in some good lines for the next round, bit of a risk considering how many injuries there have been this season but it works both ways.

geelong vs collingwood -9.5 @ $1.88 on SB, -13.5 @ $1.92 on Crown, if Geelong win this round and collingwood lose, expect this to drift out, -9.5 looks pretty good considering geelong will still be fighting for finals while i think swan and co will be thinking about las vegas.

GWS vs carlton -26.5 @ $1.88 on SB, -23.5 @ $1.92 on Crown, i think this will only drift out if GWS can beat Sydney, if both teams lose it should stay the same

North vs Bulldogs, $2.00 to $1.76 on SB, pick em @ 1.92 on Crown

GC vs Port -10.5 @ $1.88 on SB, -14.5 @ $1.92 on Crown

saints vs swans -23.5 @ $1.88 on SB, -27.5 @ $1.92 on Crown, buddy is 50/50 for this week, if he's not ready this week then i think next week for sure.

Freo vs Melb -40.5 @ $1.88 on SB, -43.5 @ $1.92 on Crown

 

[banana_bus]

I've put a multi on nearly every round with the cash back special, I think I've only collected once, but having said that, only lost once as well... lol. Good for a bit of fun.

 

[dandyjester]

Unibet has multi cash back if 1 leg fails out of 4 compared to sportsbet 5 legs required.