2015 Ladder predictions

[Dan12]

I really don't see much hope for Collingwood to get close to finals next year.

Not enough forward options, inexperienced rucks, disorganised defence, a shallow, slow, small midfield that doesn't run defensively, average skills all round. Lots of problems, although there's some good young players to fix them. Will just take time. There's hope for the Pies to be in finals by say 2017 and then stay there for a long time.

Lumumba, Maxwell, Macaffer, Beams and Ball gone, Varcoe, Greenwood, Reid, Crisp and some kids in. That indicates a bit of a slide. 2nd, 4th, 8th, 11th.... 14th fits in that pattern. If they finish above 11th I'll be genuinely surprised.

 

[Bring_Back_Brad]

I really don't see much hope for Collingwood to get close to finals next year.

Not enough forward options, inexperienced rucks, disorganised defence, a shallow, slow, small midfield that doesn't run defensively, average skills all round. Lots of problems, although there's some good young players to fix them. Will just take time. There's hope for the Pies to be in finals by say 2017 and then stay there for a long time.

Lumumba, Maxwell, Macaffer, Beams and Ball gone, Varcoe, Greenwood, Reid, Crisp and some kids in. That indicates a bit of a slide. 2nd, 4th, 8th, 11th.... 14th fits in that pattern. If they finish above 11th I'll be genuinely surprised.

If Brisbane finish above 15th I'll be surprised.

 

[Piss Poor]

Just did a dice footy season. Very interesting actually. Some huge changes.

Ladder

Collingwood 18-4 (won their first 8 matches, eased up with a few losses mid season then won six in a row before losing in the final round)

Sydney 15-6-1 (played one of three draws for the year when they finished 96 all against North in round 11. Steady and dominant. Kept in touch with collingwood throughout)

Port 13-8-1 (played a tie with Adelaide in the showdown round five, slow start with only four wins in their first nine games before charging into third spot with a brilliant mid season. Also one of just four teams to beat collingwood in the home and away)

Brisbane (12-10) - one of three teams with this record. All three teams had similar percentages too. Steady throughout. Consistent.

West coast (12-10) - very consistent like Brisbane. One of four teams to best collingwood during the home and away. Kept in touch with the top eight and scraped in for a home final. Needed to beat st Kilda on the final round to make it though.

Fremantle (12-10) - dominant start before a costly mid season slump almost cost them a spot in the finals. Charged home with three wins in a row to clinch a home final.

North Melbourne (11-10-1) - a fantastic start to the season - became the first team to beat collingwood in round nine before a shocking run into the finals almost cost them but a win against st Kilda in round 20 proved to be a true eight point game and gave them their place.

Gold Coast (11-11) - snuck in with a thrilling win over Sydney in the final round. Never looked comfortable and had to ride their luck to make it. A loss would have seen them finish 11th.

Carlton (10-11-1) - a mid season draw with hawthorn hurt them slightly but losses to Adelaide Geelong and Sydney mid season also probably cost them. Did everything right in the final round with a defeat of hawthorn before Gold Coast pipped them unexpectedly. Poor season.

Greater western Sydney (10-12) - led the log jam of five teams on ten wins. Had the best percentage of all these teams (just). Got off to a terrific start at one stage 6-2, before struggling to strung together wins mid season. Still an improvement on the first few years.

Richmond (10-12) - putrid start. First saluted against port on round eight. An impressive recovery had them 7-10 after 18 rounds but always up against it.

St Kilda (10-12) - mixed season. Started well, had ten wins by round eighteen and were fifth, pushing for a top four spot (half a game behind both port and north) - promptly lost their last five games to drop to 12th.

Melbourne (10-12) - were six from seven at one stage before dropping several games in a row to slip out of contention. Like the saints, they struggled in the last few rounds when it looked like they might pinch a final spot.

Essendon (10-12) - struggled early with losses in three of their first four games before a late surge gave them a chance.
Defeated collingwood in a scratch match in the final round to end on a high.

Bulldogs (9-13) - despite winning more games this year, finished one spot lower than 2014. Struggled early and never reached great heights but played done very attractive football and got some big wins (including the biggest if the season)

Geelong (9-13) ouch. Geelong in the bottom four for the first time in two decades. We're pushing for a final spot late but a rotten run home saw the miss out in the end. A drop of eleven places from last year in a nightmare season.

Hawthorn 8-13-1 - that's nothing compared to the reining back to back premiers though. They started great at 4-1 before a costly mid season slump killed them. Perhaps the highlight of the season was two wins over Geelong for the first time since 2006 but hawthorn were never a chance after back to back thrashing a from Sydney and gold coast and a catastrophic mid season where they couldn't buy a win, having to settle for a draw.

Adelaide (5-16-1) - took until round ten to win a game but played a few good games in the mud season before sealing the spoon late with a loss to Richmond. Never in it at all. An absolute disaster of a season.

FINALS

collingwood 17.24.126 defeated by Brisbane 26.33.189

A nine goal first term blew the magpies away and they were playing catch up the rest if the night. Brisbane towelled them up with done brilliance in the midfield and dated to dream. In accuracy from both sides cost them.

Sydney 17.15.117 defeated by port 18.26.134.
The power stormed home in the final term to secure a home prelim in a epic encounter. A see sawing gane saw port up by five goals at quarter time, then virtually level at half time before a massive third term saw the swans up by 21 points before a goalless final term.

West coast 14.28.112 defeated by Gold Coast 17.22.124

In their maiden final, the suns were shaky early at one stage 4.19.43 to 10.14.74. They then kicked nine of the last ten goals of the third term to lead by two goals before a final term stalemate saw them salute in a thriller at patersons.

Fremantle 20.15.135 defeated north 16.18.114

North blew it after leading by 45 points a minute before half time. Then freo got the next fifteen goals to storm home before three late consolation junk time goals brought the margin back to a respectable 21 points.

WEEK TWO

Collingwood 19.6.120 drew Gold Coast 17.18.120 (140 to 121 in extra time gold cosst's way)

The suns jumped the pies early but couldn't land the killer blow. In a scintillating contest the pies led by a point at quarter time and the suns hit back to be fourteen up at the main change. The scores were level at three quarter time on 90 points apiece before being tied again at full time on 120 each. In extra time the suns scored a few goals while collingwood only scored one point to become the first minor premier to go out in straight sets. The pies had gone from 18-3 to out of the finals. The MCG was shocked as the last Victorian side exited the 2015 season.

Sydney 14.15.99 defeated Fremantle 9.18.72

In a dour match the dockers jumped Sydney early but inaccurate kicking cost them a bigger lead and Sydney were able to pull it back. They dominated the second half with 11 goals to just five.

WEEK THREE

Gold coast's impressive first finals appearance came to an agonising end when port overran them I'm the final quarter. A tired suns outfit couldn't consolidate their eleven point lead at the final change as they failed to kick a goal. Still it was a very impressive finish from the eight placed team.

Port 17.12.114 defeated Gold Coast 14.11.95

Brisbane 19.11.125 defeated Sydney 13.6.84

A seven goal to two last term broke the deadlock after nothing had separated the teams all night. In the end the lions were too quick and classy for the swans.

GRAND FINAL
It was a repeat of the 2004 GF with port proving too strong for the young lions. Gallant in defeat the lions tried hard but ultimately port controlled the entire gane to run our victors by 36 points in the end.

Port 17.17.119 defeated Brisbane 12.11.83

I like this prediction, we are better then Freo.
Order been restored

 

[Viceregal]

Two more things about dice football. First, it's rare teams get much of a streak (winning or losing) so seeing a team win 18 games in a season is amazing. That's why the rest of the positions were so close. Draws are also rare so to see three of them was amazing. Oh and then a fourth in the finals.
Secondly, it's a six sided die which can give various different outcomes. It is completely random. Form, skill and stuff can't be taken into account.

When I saw the dice football I initially thought it was just winning or losing based on the roll of a 6 / 8 / 10 / 12 / 20 sided dice but you have ended up with more elaborate scores (goals points etc) from your (normal) dice rolls. What are the actual mechanics you used to play? (serious question btw)

 

[Harris Specter]

If B̶r̶i̶s̶b̶a̶n̶e̶ Collingwood finish above 15th I'll be surprised.

Efa.

 

[tangolikelama]

Just did a dice footy season. Very interesting actually. Some huge changes.

Ladder

Collingwood 18-4 (won their first 8 matches, eased up with a few losses mid season then won six in a row before losing in the final round)

Sydney 15-6-1 (played one of three draws for the year when they finished 96 all against North in round 11. Steady and dominant. Kept in touch with collingwood throughout)

Port 13-8-1 (played a tie with Adelaide in the showdown round five, slow start with only four wins in their first nine games before charging into third spot with a brilliant mid season. Also one of just four teams to beat collingwood in the home and away)

Brisbane (12-10) - one of three teams with this record. All three teams had similar percentages too. Steady throughout. Consistent.

West coast (12-10) - very consistent like Brisbane. One of four teams to best collingwood during the home and away. Kept in touch with the top eight and scraped in for a home final. Needed to beat st Kilda on the final round to make it though.

Fremantle (12-10) - dominant start before a costly mid season slump almost cost them a spot in the finals. Charged home with three wins in a row to clinch a home final.

North Melbourne (11-10-1) - a fantastic start to the season - became the first team to beat collingwood in round nine before a shocking run into the finals almost cost them but a win against st Kilda in round 20 proved to be a true eight point game and gave them their place.

Gold Coast (11-11) - snuck in with a thrilling win over Sydney in the final round. Never looked comfortable and had to ride their luck to make it. A loss would have seen them finish 11th.

Carlton (10-11-1) - a mid season draw with hawthorn hurt them slightly but losses to Adelaide Geelong and Sydney mid season also probably cost them. Did everything right in the final round with a defeat of hawthorn before Gold Coast pipped them unexpectedly. Poor season.

Greater western Sydney (10-12) - led the log jam of five teams on ten wins. Had the best percentage of all these teams (just). Got off to a terrific start at one stage 6-2, before struggling to strung together wins mid season. Still an improvement on the first few years.

Richmond (10-12) - putrid start. First saluted against port on round eight. An impressive recovery had them 7-10 after 18 rounds but always up against it.

St Kilda (10-12) - mixed season. Started well, had ten wins by round eighteen and were fifth, pushing for a top four spot (half a game behind both port and north) - promptly lost their last five games to drop to 12th.

Melbourne (10-12) - were six from seven at one stage before dropping several games in a row to slip out of contention. Like the saints, they struggled in the last few rounds when it looked like they might pinch a final spot.

Essendon (10-12) - struggled early with losses in three of their first four games before a late surge gave them a chance.
Defeated collingwood in a scratch match in the final round to end on a high.

Bulldogs (9-13) - despite winning more games this year, finished one spot lower than 2014. Struggled early and never reached great heights but played done very attractive football and got some big wins (including the biggest if the season)

Geelong (9-13) ouch. Geelong in the bottom four for the first time in two decades. We're pushing for a final spot late but a rotten run home saw the miss out in the end. A drop of eleven places from last year in a nightmare season.

Hawthorn 8-13-1 - that's nothing compared to the reining back to back premiers though. They started great at 4-1 before a costly mid season slump killed them. Perhaps the highlight of the season was two wins over Geelong for the first time since 2006 but hawthorn were never a chance after back to back thrashing a from Sydney and gold coast and a catastrophic mid season where they couldn't buy a win, having to settle for a draw.

Adelaide (5-16-1) - took until round ten to win a game but played a few good games in the mud season before sealing the spoon late with a loss to Richmond. Never in it at all. An absolute disaster of a season.

FINALS

collingwood 17.24.126 defeated by Brisbane 26.33.189

A nine goal first term blew the magpies away and they were playing catch up the rest if the night. Brisbane towelled them up with done brilliance in the midfield and dated to dream. In accuracy from both sides cost them.

Sydney 17.15.117 defeated by port 18.26.134.
The power stormed home in the final term to secure a home prelim in a epic encounter. A see sawing gane saw port up by five goals at quarter time, then virtually level at half time before a massive third term saw the swans up by 21 points before a goalless final term.

West coast 14.28.112 defeated by Gold Coast 17.22.124

In their maiden final, the suns were shaky early at one stage 4.19.43 to 10.14.74. They then kicked nine of the last ten goals of the third term to lead by two goals before a final term stalemate saw them salute in a thriller at patersons.

Fremantle 20.15.135 defeated north 16.18.114

North blew it after leading by 45 points a minute before half time. Then freo got the next fifteen goals to storm home before three late consolation junk time goals brought the margin back to a respectable 21 points.

WEEK TWO

Collingwood 19.6.120 drew Gold Coast 17.18.120 (140 to 121 in extra time gold cosst's way)

The suns jumped the pies early but couldn't land the killer blow. In a scintillating contest the pies led by a point at quarter time and the suns hit back to be fourteen up at the main change. The scores were level at three quarter time on 90 points apiece before being tied again at full time on 120 each. In extra time the suns scored a few goals while collingwood only scored one point to become the first minor premier to go out in straight sets. The pies had gone from 18-3 to out of the finals. The MCG was shocked as the last Victorian side exited the 2015 season.

Sydney 14.15.99 defeated Fremantle 9.18.72

In a dour match the dockers jumped Sydney early but inaccurate kicking cost them a bigger lead and Sydney were able to pull it back. They dominated the second half with 11 goals to just five.

WEEK THREE

Gold coast's impressive first finals appearance came to an agonising end when port overran them I'm the final quarter. A tired suns outfit couldn't consolidate their eleven point lead at the final change as they failed to kick a goal. Still it was a very impressive finish from the eight placed team.

Port 17.12.114 defeated Gold Coast 14.11.95

Brisbane 19.11.125 defeated Sydney 13.6.84

A seven goal to two last term broke the deadlock after nothing had separated the teams all night. In the end the lions were too quick and classy for the swans.

GRAND FINAL
It was a repeat of the 2004 GF with port proving too strong for the young lions. Gallant in defeat the lions tried hard but ultimately port controlled the entire gane to run our victors by 36 points in the end.

Port 17.17.119 defeated Brisbane 12.11.83

I see what you did there

 

[LiterallyNobody]

When I saw the dice football I initially thought it was just winning or losing based on the roll of a 6 / 8 / 10 / 12 / 20 sided dice but you have ended up with more elaborate scores (goals points etc) from your (normal) dice rolls. What are the actual mechanics you used to play? (serious question btw)

I have a six sided die. Roll once for goals and then roll second time for behinds. If you get the same number twice, roll a third time. 1-2 is goalless, 3-4 is no behinds, 5 is scoreless, 6 is full score.

For example, roll a 5.5.4 - that's five goals straight.

I only do this for doubles. So if you roll 2.3 that's fine, it just stays 2 goals 3.

I understand it seems complicated but I've been playing dice football since high school so the formula is stuck in my head.

I used to roll two dice for goals and behinds but then I was getting scores of 226-207 and it seemed ridiculous. So then I made doubles goalless (except double one and double six because there was no other way to roll 2 or 12). Then I switched to one die and used double numbers as scoreless. Then I got too many draws. Then I switched they new method.

In finals I used a ten sided die with ten representing zero.

There's no right or wrong way to play dice footy it's up to the user. It's a great way to develop maths skills though.

 

[LiterallyNobody]

Also I used to use points differential to rank teams instead of percentage. Mainly because percentage takes up more time and paper to calculate. It doesn't make much difference. All the years I've done dice football nobody has ever missed the eight because of it.

 

[LiterallyNobody]

I like this prediction, we are better then Freo.
Order been restored

Except in finals. You guys lost to Gold Coast. Freo beat north.

 

[MyNamesDavid]

We will be a way better side next year. Already have injuries under control, got rid of the trash in lumumba and beams and now have a fully committed squad without
distractions of whinging sooks and their egos.
A lot of senior players coming back in and returning fresh after a bad year of injury and niggles, swan, Cloke, brown, Reid. Seedsman is the fittest he's ever been on the eve of preseason and will be an AA lock. Varcoe is a great in means we can get rid of young. Freeman is going to take the afl by storm despite a year on the sidelines he's come back fitter and faster than before and is the next Gary ablett. Adams will settle down and excel given the inside role Luke ball held. Pendlebury is the best player in the comp and will just get better., Sidebottom went past beams last year and is getting better every game he will be a brownlow contender next year. Elliot will kick 50 this year, Reid will kick 60-70 and that will give Cloke room to move up the ground a bit and cause damage.
Collingwood to easily finish top4 and good chance to take the premiership. Rofl at all the losers who have us bottom 8, you're dreaming.

By far the stupidest most delusional thing ive ever read on this site and I have read some ridiculous things on here.

 

[smasha]

Koolaid didnt get to Tigerland?

 

[MyNamesDavid]

Hawthorn
Port Adelaide
Sydney
Fremantle
Richmond
Geelong
Gold Coast
Adelaide

North Melbourne
Essendon
Collingwood
Brisbane
West Coast
Carlton
GWS
Melbourne
Bulldogs
St Kilda

 

[Capitano_Cotch]

Port Adelaide
Sydney
Hawthorn
Fremantle
North Melbourne
Geelong
Richmond
Essendon

Gold Coast
Collingwood
West Coast
Adelaide
Brisbane
GWS
Carlton
Western Bulldogs
Melbourne
St Kilda

 

[joop]

If Brisbane finish above 15th I'll be surprised.

It reminds me if when Cousins went to Richmond and everyone had them locked for top 8 even some for top 4.
Beams is a great get, but won't win them an extra 8 games

 

[WCE1698]

1. Sydney
2. Port
3. Hawthorn
4. GCS
5. Fremantle
6. North Melbourne
7. Geelong
8. West Coast
9. Adelaide
10. Richmond
11. Brisbane
12. Essendon
13. Collingwood
14. Carlton
15. Melbourne
16. Western Bulldogs
17. GWS
18. St Kilda

Coleman: Lance Franklin
Brownlow: Nat Fyfe
Premiers: Sydney

 

[mightynineteen]

1. Hawthorn
2. Port Adelaide
3. Sydney
4. North
5. Richmond
6. Gold Coast
7. Fremantle
8. Geelong

9. West Coast
10. Adelaide
11. Brisbane
12. Collingwood
13. Essendon
14. Bulldogs
15. Carlton
16. Gws
17. St Kilda
18. Melbourne

Coleman: Lance Franklin
Brownlow: Nat Fyfe
Premiers: Hawthorn, yes I know that I am completely biased, but we won't know till next year.

 

[Big Sauce 21]

It reminds me if when Cousins went to Richmond and everyone had them locked for top 8 even some for top 4.
Beams is a great get, but won't win them an extra 8 games

15 wins would be nice

 

[x_les_x]

Hawks
Swans
Port
North
Cats
Crows
Dockers
Eagles

Bombers
Tigers
Suns
Blues
Doggies
Pies
Lions
Gws
Dees
Saints


Roughead Coleman
Dangerfield Brownlow

 

[TigerTime3]

Hawthorn
North Melbourne
Gold Coast
Sydney
---------
West Coast
Port Adelaide
Fremantle
Collingwood
Adelaide
Geelong
Richmond
Melbourne
Brisbane
Essendon
---------
GWS
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Carlton

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

We will be a way better side next year. Already have injuries under control, got rid of the trash in lumumba and beams and now have a fully committed squad without distractions of whinging sooks and their egos.
A lot of senior players coming back in and returning fresh after a bad year of injury and niggles, swan, Cloke, brown, Reid. Seedsman is the fittest he's ever been on the eve of preseason and will be an AA lock. Varcoe is a great in means we can get rid of young. Freeman is going to take the afl by storm despite a year on the sidelines he's come back fitter and faster than before and is the next Gary ablett. Adams will settle down and excel given the inside role Luke ball held. Pendlebury is the best player in the comp and will just get better., Sidebottom went past beams last year and is getting better every game he will be a brownlow contender next year. Elliot will kick 50 this year, Reid will kick 60-70 and that will give Cloke room to move up the ground a bit and cause damage.
Collingwood to easily finish top4 and good chance to take the premiership. Rofl at all the losers who have us bottom 8, you're dreaming.

I like the pies. But your comments re Beams are ridiculous, Sidebottom has passed him?
Reeks of "I was gonna dump her anyway, she is ugly anyway"
Beams is a top 5 midfielder. Elite. Huge huge loss.

 

[Bring_Back_Brad]

I like the pies. But your comments re Beams are ridiculous, Sidebottom has passed him?
Beams is a top 5 midfielder. Elite. Huge huge loss.

Sidebottom went past him this year. He came second in the Copeland, beams was third.
Beams is not such a great loss to us, he was 4th behind Pendles, swan, ball, with sidebottom overtaking him he was back to 4th mid even after balls retirement. Freeman and broomhead coming through both have the potential to be classier players, Adams is a better inside player, and now with greenwood our mids are well stocked and we can do fine without him. No way is he top5 mid in the comp if he's only our 4th best, unless you count collingwood as having 4out of 5 top mids in the comp. we've got guys like Elliot, karnezis, Seedsman and scharenberg coming in to the midfield next year, don't even have room for beams.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Sidebottom went past him this year. He came second in the Copeland, beams was third.
Beams is not such a great loss to us, he was 4th behind Pendles, swan, ball, with sidebottom overtaking him he was back to 4th mid even after balls retirement. Freeman and broomhead coming through both have the potential to be classier players, Adams is a better inside player, and now with greenwood our mids are well stocked and we can do fine without him. No way is he top5 mid in the comp if he's only our 4th best, unless you count collingwood as having 4out of 5 top mids in the comp.

Beams was one of your best players and you say he is not such a great loss?

 

[Bring_Back_Brad]

Beams was one of your best players and you say he is not such a great loss?

If we lost one of our best forwards like Elliot for example, we would be screwed. We've only got two forwards, Elliot and Cloke. But losing a mid for us is no biggie we've got heaps of other options and beams had attitude problems better he left

 

[Warnez]

We will be a way better side next year. Already have injuries under control, got rid of the trash in lumumba and beams and now have a fully committed squad without distractions of whinging sooks and their egos.
A lot of senior players coming back in and returning fresh after a bad year of injury and niggles, swan, Cloke, brown, Reid. Seedsman is the fittest he's ever been on the eve of preseason and will be an AA lock. Varcoe is a great in means we can get rid of young. Freeman is going to take the afl by storm despite a year on the sidelines he's come back fitter and faster than before and is the next Gary ablett. Adams will settle down and excel given the inside role Luke ball held. Pendlebury is the best player in the comp and will just get better., Sidebottom went past beams last year and is getting better every game he will be a brownlow contender next year. Elliot will kick 50 this year, Reid will kick 60-70 and that will give Cloke room to move up the ground a bit and cause damage.
Collingwood to easily finish top4 and good chance to take the premiership. Rofl at all the losers who have us bottom 8, you're dreaming.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Sidebottom went past him this year. He came second in the Copeland, beams was third.
Beams is not such a great loss to us, he was 4th behind Pendles, swan, ball, with sidebottom overtaking him he was back to 4th mid even after balls retirement. Freeman and broomhead coming through both have the potential to be classier players, Adams is a better inside player, and now with greenwood our mids are well stocked and we can do fine without him. No way is he top5 mid in the comp if he's only our 4th best, unless you count collingwood as having 4out of 5 top mids in the comp. we've got guys like Elliot, karnezis, Seedsman and scharenberg coming in to the midfield next year, don't even have room for beams.

I think you're wrong and clearly jilted but I like the stubborn, blind optimism.