2016 AFL - Round 9

[mookieb]

Doesn't sound encouraging, but hopefully it's not serious and he can get back fit and healthy for his sakes and also the Hawks.

http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2016-05-17/roughead-unavailable-to-play-indefinitely

 

[timster]

Just wondering what elements people choose to consider when determining a total points model? Not looking to obtain the ins and outs of your model just hope some are interested to share some considerations?

 

[2006_Eagles]

I know i promised myself i wouldn't bet on collingwood again this season....but i think taking them at the +35 line this week is worth considering

2 months ago, almost the exact same side took on a full strength Geelong side at Skilled Stadium and beat them pretty convincingly in the preseason....I know its just the pre-season, so can't take much out of it...but still.

I'm definitely not saying collingwood will win, but something to think about.

Don't like this at all. Cats should have belted ADelaide if they kicked straight. 33 scoring shots.

 

[iluvparis]

I remember a game when Essendon where at their top around baby bombers time I think.The Bulldogs went in to the game big underdogs against a rampaging offensive bomber outfit.The Dogs where aware that if they where to play an open game they would more likely get beat.They went in with tactics to close the game right up.Plenty of ball ups no space to the opposition and tackle ferociously.The end result was the Dogs winning the game and upsetting the Powerhouse.This game has gone down in history as a true memorable great.There's no sure thing in Footy

So memorable you can't even recall which decade it was in

 

[targett]

So memorable you can't even recall which decade it was in

As I said if u read it .The Baby Bombers era. Im sure if you really want to know ....look it up

 

[iluvparis]

As I said if u read it .The Baby Bombers era. Im sure if you really want to know ....look it up

Maybe you should. You've got the era wrong

 

[Hawkies]

Is it just me, or are injury lists this year out of control?

2 more outs for the doggies. Missing 4 of their backline now. The only way I see GWS losing this game is they assume they have it and don't show up at all. 4U @-16.5.

Ditto Geelong v a 50% pies outfit. 2U@-31.5

 

[Oraaaaazio]

Just wondering what elements people choose to consider when determining a total points model? Not looking to obtain the ins and outs of your model just hope some are interested to share some considerations?

weather, teams, ground, time of day, roof closed/open

 

[mookieb]

I remember a game when Essendon where at their top around baby bombers time I think.The Bulldogs went in to the game big underdogs against a rampaging offensive bomber outfit.The Dogs where aware that if they where to play an open game they would more likely get beat.They went in with tactics to close the game right up.Plenty of ball ups no space to the opposition and tackle ferociously.The end result was the Dogs winning the game and upsetting the Powerhouse.This game has gone down in history as a true memorable great.There's no sure thing in Footy

Actually I remember this game. Terry Wallace was coaching and he used to nominate special games where from memory he used to give the game ball to a selected player. Can't remember what exact term he gave for these special games.

Not as relevant today though as the new rules make it hard to clog it up and play contested footy out of stoppages. See Freo for reference.

 

[ash_1050]

I remember a game when Essendon where at their top around baby bombers time I think.The Bulldogs went in to the game big underdogs against a rampaging offensive bomber outfit.The Dogs where aware that if they where to play an open game they would more likely get beat.They went in with tactics to close the game right up.Plenty of ball ups no space to the opposition and tackle ferociously.The end result was the Dogs winning the game and upsetting the Powerhouse.This game has gone down in history as a true memorable great.There's no sure thing in Footy

Round 18 or 19 2000. The Bombers hadn't lost a game all season though up until that point which is a very different psychological hurdle and has its own pressures. Manchester United 2013/14 is another example of this.

 

[Profphat]

Actually I remember this game. Terry Wallace was coaching and he used to nominate special games where from memory he used to give the game ball to a selected player. Can't remember what exact term he gave for these special games.

Not as relevant today though as the new rules make it hard to clog it up and play contested footy out of stoppages. See Freo for reference.

From memory, it was the first proper 'flooding' game.
Wallace is a good tactician at times

 

[X_box_X]

Is it just me, or are injury lists this year out of control?

2 more outs for the doggies. Missing 4 of their backline now. The only way I see GWS losing this game is they assume they have it and don't show up at all. 4U @-16.5.

You better hope it's not raining.

 

[Derzzy]

If Collingwood get within 35 of Geelong I'll buy you 3 cartons of your favorite poison

 

[old scholar]

Crows -99.5 - $9 at Sportsbet

No Gaz, possibly no Hall, in addition to GC injuries already.

Could easily be a massacre at Metricon.

 

[timster]

weather, teams, ground, time of day, roof closed/open

Awesome what about inside 50-s for and against etc? Ave marks inside 50s etc for against etc. I think I'll work on a model during the off season and see how i go!!

 

[Robo87]

Crows -99.5 - $9 at Sportsbet

No Gaz, possibly no Hall, in addition to GC injuries already.

Could easily be a massacre at Metricon.

0.5u Adel -98.5 @$10.50 b365

 

[chrisdon16]

Actually I remember this game. Terry Wallace was coaching and he used to nominate special games where from memory he used to give the game ball to a selected player. Can't remember what exact term he gave for these special games.

Not as relevant today though as the new rules make it hard to clog it up and play contested footy out of stoppages. See Freo for reference.

I remember this game like it was yesterday. Dons had the greatest season ever. They had something ridiculous like an average margin of 10 goals a game or something, undefeated the whole year until the Bulldogs game in R21. Just before half time John Barnes knocked out Brad Johnson that caused a half time brawl. This would inspire the Dogs. Dustin Fletcher kicked it out on the full with about 30 secs to go and Chris Grant kicked a banana from the boundary to beat them. After the game Johnson ran up to Barnes and gave him an earful. Was one of the most entertaining games you'll ever see.

 

[targett]

Perth Sat
21 May
Thunderstorms14°C18°C
Chance of rain: 90% (10-20mm)

Humidity: 9am: 91% 3pm: 75%
Wind 9am:

W 36km/h
Wind 3pm:

WSW 36km/h

 

[Oraaaaazio]

Awesome what about inside 50-s for and against etc? Ave marks inside 50s etc for against etc. I think I'll work on a model during the off season and see how i go!!

don't think there's a strong correlation between inside 50s and scoring

 

[csnody]

don't think there's a strong correlation between inside 50s and scoring

More correlation between contested possessions and disposal efficiency for scoring compared to inside 50's.

 

[csnody]

Awesome what about inside 50-s for and against etc? Ave marks inside 50s etc for against etc. I think I'll work on a model during the off season and see how i go!!

Recent example would be crows and dogs. Dogs inside 50s 68 to crows 37. Almost double the inside 50s and dogs win by 15 points.
I don't think this is the best way to start with your model.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

**** bottom teams. All of them.

Geelong and Adelaide certainty.

 

[Lensen]

most correlation between teams scoring and points scored, would probably focus there

 

[Oraaaaazio]

most correlation between teams scoring and points scored, would probably focus there

don't want to give away everything..

"what everyone knows isn't worth knowing" yada yada

 

[Robo87]

0.5u Adel -98.5 @$10.50 b365

I also added these last night to go with this
1u adel -60.5 @2.45 (365)
1u adel -72.5 @3.5 (365)
0.5u adel -86.5 @5.5 (365)
2u Adel -25.5@1.87 (sb - placed last week)

i see the line's now out to -56 now! The -25line was a steal last week!