2016 FIXture discussion

[Roddy]

The more I look at that draw, the more I like it. Opening half of the season is relatively easy, we should gather some good momentum. Only one trip to AO, lateish in the season. Only one trip to Subi, late in the season. Freo in Tassie, a sure-fire win against a top side. Only one tough patch and it only lasts 3 rounds. GF replay is in Melbourne early on, should win that.
Only bummers I can see are single games against our bunnies Carlton and Collingwood, and we have to wait til late in the season for those 'bank the 4 pts' games.

 

[aussie80s]

Why give us the Dees twice? Would much rather the Cats

They often schedule two games when a big name crosses from one club to another as the crowds will flock for Fitzpatrick.
What would you rather see? I'm sure the AFL have their finger on the pulse of the people and read the tea leaves correctly.

 

[IdiotBox]

Why give us the Dees twice? Would much rather the Cats

I would have thought that was obvious.
It's in anticipation of a much hyped blockbuster re-match featuring Jack Fitzpatrick versus his old club who reluctantly lost their superstar to a rival finals contender. You know it makes sense.

Edit: B*gger... beaten to it bu aussie80s

 

[mikeder]

The more I look at that draw, the more I like it. Opening half of the season is relatively easy, we should gather some good momentum. Only one trip to AO, lateish in the season. Only one trip to Subi, late in the season. Freo in Tassie, a sure-fire win against a top side. Only one tough patch and it only lasts 3 rounds. GF replay is in Melbourne early on, should win that.
Only bummers I can see are single games against our bunnies Carlton and Collingwood, and we have to wait til late in the season for those 'bank the 4 pts' games.

Good draw I reckon. 12 games in Melbourne, 5 in Tas, and 5 away games. Very good!!!!!!

 

[cryptor]

Made a graph (NERRRD!!) that helps illustrate our fixture difficulty. It's not as simplistic as the ones we'll see in the Herald Sun, etc where they'll assign rating points equally spaced across all teams based on their finishing position this year. Which gives you weird results like playing Brisbane is twice as difficult as playing Carlton.

The way I've made this is taken the Squiggle team ratings (the combined average of their offensive and defensive powers) and then listed them against our fixture. Any time we play at a "neutral" venue (ie. MCG or Etihad against a Vic based side) I leave the power rating alone. If we play them away then I increase their power rating by 5%. Likewise if we play a non-Vic side at the MCG or any side in Tassie then I reduce their rating by 5%. It's not a drastic change and 5% may be "wrong" but it helps show the difference better than not having it at all (eg. round 2 game at the MCG against West Coast compared to the round 22 one at Domain). The other weakness is that it's based on how teams were rated in 2015 and not how they will be in 2016. I could throw another modifier in based on who we think might improve or drop off but that's lots of guess work.

So that all said, it's not a bad fixture based on this. A mild opening few rounds, a softer game (though I think we should expect St Kilda will improve) before a period of games where we can manage loads and test some things out. Another few soft games before the bye with the worry being that North game in round 13 where we might be complacent or in our mid-season lull. Then 3 tougher games coming out of the bye but the opportunity to again manage players in rounds 19 and 20 before ramping things up in the final 3 rounds leading into hopefully another strong finals campaign.

**NOTE: That round 15 is actually a bye and not the Carlton game

 

[becalm]

The 1st half of the draw is quite friendly. Most difficult games are at home.

 

[bris tarangau]

They often schedule two games when a big name crosses from one club to another as the crowds will flock for Fitzpatrick.
What would you rather see? I'm sure the AFL have their finger on the pulse of the people and read the tea leaves correctly.
View attachment 189201

Yes, we will miss Lakey. Really liked his aggression on such occasion.

 

[La Vache]

7 day games in melbourne is good for those bringing the kids. My four year old loved her first two mAtches this year.

 

[IdiotBox]

Made a graph (NERRRD!!) that helps illustrate our fixture difficulty. It's not as simplistic as the ones we'll see in the Herald Sun, etc where they'll assign rating points equally spaced across all teams based on their finishing position this year. Which gives you weird results like playing Brisbane is twice as difficult as playing Carlton.

The way I've made this is taken the Squiggle team ratings (the combined average of their offensive and defensive powers) and then listed them against our fixture. Any time we play at a "neutral" venue (ie. MCG or Etihad against a Vic based side) I leave the power rating alone. If we play them away then I increase their power rating by 5%. Likewise if we play a non-Vic side at the MCG or any side in Tassie then I reduce their rating by 5%. It's not a drastic change and 5% may be "wrong" but it helps show the difference better than not having it at all (eg. round 2 game at the MCG against West Coast compared to the round 22 one at Domain). The other weakness is that it's based on how teams were rated in 2015 and not how they will be in 2016. I could throw another modifier in based on who we think might improve or drop off but that's lots of guess work.

So that all said, it's not a bad fixture based on this. A mild opening few rounds, a softer game (though I think we should expect St Kilda will improve) before a period of games where we can manage loads and test some things out. Another few soft games before the bye with the worry being that North game in round 13 where we might be complacent or in our mid-season lull. Then 3 tougher games coming out of the bye but the opportunity to again manage players in rounds 19 and 20 before ramping things up in the final 3 rounds leading into hopefully another strong finals campaign.
View attachment 189209

Nice 'manhattan' work there cryptor. And it ties in well with the cricket season being under way.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Really like our fixture, we can set our season up.

 

[Gold Member]

Just had a look..

We have legit just been kissed on the dick by the AFL.
But wait, there's more.. Have a bye between H&A and finals oldest premiership team ever!

Go and become GOAT, it allows us to generate feel good stories after years of Essendrug shit.

 

[No.19]

Shouldn't be surprised but the Swans only play 2 of last year's top 6 teams twice? (Us and Richmond)

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Shouldn't be surprised but the Swans only play 2 of last year's top 6 teams twice? (Us and Richmond)

Technically Richmond aren't even a top 6 side from last year, what are the other 3 double ups Cola received ?

 

[No.19]

Technically Richmond aren't even a top 6 side from last year, what are the other 3 double ups Cola received ?

They play hawks twice, richmond twice, carlton twice, giants twice, north twice

 

[LindaCresLove]

They often schedule two games when a big name crosses from one club to another as the crowds will flock for Fitzpatrick.
What would you rather see? I'm sure the AFL have their finger on the pulse of the people and read the tea leaves correctly.
View attachment 189201

Love the image of my mate Brian dancing the Polka with that loser Porkins.
Still feel uncomfortable about not having Brain's supreme skills, ( and Mongrel ) in 2016.
Lets hope Clarko has a plan.

 

[Roddy]

Love the image of my mate Brian dancing the Polka with that loser Porkins.
Still feel uncomfortable about not having Brain's supreme skills, ( and Mongrel ) in 2016.
Lets hope Clarko has a plan.

I've got a bad feeling that that plan may have been nabbing Snakey Jakey...

 

[cryptor]

Here's our players upcoming milestone games (not including debuts) assuming they don't miss any games and also not taking into account the likelihood of certain players to play games:

Schoenmakers 100th, Burgoyne 300th in round 5 vs Adelaide @ MCG

Gibson 200th, Lewis 250th in round 10 vs Brisbane Lions @ GABBA

Whitecross 100th in round 12 vs Essendon @ Etihad

Simpkin 50th in round 13 vs North Melbourne @ Etihad

Mitchell 300th in round 16 vs Port Adelaide @ AO

Langford 50th in round 18 vs Richmond @ MCG

Ceglar 50th, Roughead 250th in round 20 vs Melbourne @ MCG

Hill 100th potentially in PF/GF if we get that far

Shiels 150th in GF if we play SF route

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

Shouldn't be surprised but the Swans only play 2 of last year's top 6 teams twice? (Us and Richmond)

Isn't that against the rules that the AFL introduced where you had to play teams from the same group a certain number of times? I thought it was at least 3 in the group. $wans finished in the top 6 (even though they went out in straight sets, )

 

[Arc1]

This has probably been covered already, but isn't it a bit odd to 'balance' the fixture by assuming anyone in the top 6 this year will be there next year?

I guess the only alternative is to start trying to predict the movers, but apart from how Hawthorn's position is always premiers, even which team we thrash on Grand Final day seems to change quite significantly from year to year.

 

[play2win]

one of the advantages of being the 3-peat premiers is the planning you can apply to your next finals campaign. the expectation is there to do well once again and so your plan for the season starts with a GF appearance and you work backward (or reverse engineer) for the outcome. it involves peaking at the right time. which other club can afford to do this? or at least has the balls to do this? on top of that we have the afl working to our advantage and manufacturing a change to the fixture at the business end of the season. they may be thinking that they are 'equalising' the comp by having a bye at the end of the home and away, but all they are doing is working into our hands. we are the only club in the position to manage this change to our advantage, whilst we are working towards winning another flag, all the other clubs in contention are only working towards making top 4. bigger picture lads, bigger fuken picture.

 

[HairyO]

So Burgoyne plays 300 vs Adelaide and Mitchell plays 300 vs Port.

Gil should have tried harder on that. Even just to swap them around.

 

[No.19]

Isn't that against the rules that the AFL introduced where you had to play teams from the same group a certain number of times? I thought it was at least 3 in the group. $wans finished in the top 6 (even though they went out in straight sets, )

That's what I thought. But then again it's Sydney

 

[KOLOKOTRONIS]

I had a feeling we would only play geelong once. The minute they bitch out, they get us once. We had them twice over and over during their "dominance" when they still couldn't put us away! Annoying.

We need a better start to the season than 4-4...

Exciting times!

Great to get Melbourne twice, and happy with the aurora fixturing. Collingwood once in the final round will be interesting.

Can't believe we are shooting at a fourth.

30 years since 1986 should be a focus. Imo our greatest premiership in the 80s. Pure guts after back to back losses and a first final loss to Carlton.

We can do it!

KOLOKOTRONIS

 

[JoeHawk]

No games against Hawthorn. Dodged a bullet.

But I'm sure we'll manage to be our own worst enemy at some point.

 

[bigton08]

ROUND 10 FINALLLY....in BRISBANE its a MIRACLE!!!!