Strategy 2016 Tacs Trailer

[Champion_Data]

Ok I get it now. So what happened with Hombsch in the first quarter of the Brisbane game? Was that just an error? Cause there are two possessions close to each other that look as though they should have been red. And then I look at O'Shea's third quarter in the same game and he has huge areas of red around his three possessions that are spaced all over the field, whereas Josh Walker only gets a tiny little dot (which is what I would have expected it to be for O'Shea).

Just trying to understand how it works - I never thought it was about efficiency or how far players run, more where they are receiving/disposing of the ball on the field.

The size of the patch under each individual dot is proportional to the total area of the ground that all combined dots cover. Hombsch's two dots only cover a small area of the wing, while O'Shea's take up two-thirds of the ground.

My advice would be to ignore the heatmap for anything with less than 10 dots. When it's in single figures you'll get just as much information as looking at the dots themselves as when you look at the heatmaps. Heatmaps are more valuable when looking at more dots. See the team heatmap for example. Without the colour it would be impossible to read anything into the location of the dots.

 

[Janus]

So you were right Macca19 and I was wrong

 

[DaTBird187]

Nothing to do with personnel. Everything to do with team defense and offense.



This video shows how strong something can be when it is built with solid support - a paper bridge, held together with tape and glue, with the right formation, can hold over 480 kg. The shape used is more important than the materials you build with. Our problems in our losses were systemic - based around players believing they had to be the one to pull the side back into playing the type of football we are capable of playing instead of just trusting in the formation and being support players when required.

That's why I find it amusing that there are a lot of people wanting to drop Toumpas. Dimitri has done everything he has been asked to do when it comes to being a support player for his teammates - he tracks back and defends, he pushes up in attack. He's not a star - not yet - but we don't need a lot of stars. You need the inky blackness of space - the players doing the things that you can't see - to make the stars shine brightly.

This is why I think Gray's 'injury' was just that - an excuse to get the players back thinking not on individual performances, but on team care. As Ken said in that coaches round table on Fox - "I tell the boys, 'We're not that much better than anyone else'". And it's true - if you're not going to adhere to the game plan, you're going to fold. A championship winning team is greater than the sum of its parts, with everyone playing their role. We remember the stars because they give us the flashy performances - but without the sacrifice of personal glory from others, we will never be successful.

So true and easy to quantify when you look at the greatest Basketball side I ever saw play, the 95-96 Bulls. They had the superstars in Jordan and Pippen, but it was everyone sacrificing and doing their role that helped both to excel to the highest level. Three players (Jordan, Pippen and Rodman) were all-defensive team that year). Ron Harper could have had his own team somewhere else as the main guy, he was that good, but he sacrificed to do his roll, score when Jordan was off the court and ran decoys when both were on the court. Toni Kukoc again, could have been the main man somewhere else. He is the best European player I had seen until Dirk Nowitski came along. He won the 6th man award that season, providing instant scoring, passing and rebounding. Luc Longley's contribution has always been undersold by everyone except those in the organisation. Jordan always said he was an outstanding passer out of the post and helped the team run their offense with precision. Steve Kerr is now head coach of the only side to better this Bulls teams season win record and clearly showed these smarts as a player, not glamorous, but effective. Bill Wennington, Jud Buechler, and Randy Brown, will never be remembered as players, but in this team were also critical, simply playing a role to perfection, when the time came.

Gone are the days of judging a player by his kicks and handballs. Play your role, defend, defend, defend and we will see the results. Prioritise getting on the plays of the week highlight reel or chase possessions to the detriment of the system and be damned to SANFL.

 

[bluemoon86]

Confirms the conclusion I came to last night while I was looking at more heat maps. It's just a basic overview of where possessions took place and nothing more. Generally speaking a player is more likely to get a possession if they are in that area for a larger proportion of time, but this is not a hard and fast rule especially these days. More and more players rotate through different positions and areas of the ground, through a quarter and a match. They might even have different roles to play or areas to guard depending on where they are playing at the time, or which team has possession of the ball. If these heat maps accounted for quality of possession, metres gained or were influenced by the areas of the field the players actually spent most of their time rather than just where they disposed of the ball they would be much more useful. They're still useful, but I can see them being skewed by certain things during a game and I just wouldn't take them as gospel. More thought will be required to work out what factors caused a particular pattern. Especially if we are trying to analyse what was happening with team defense.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

So individual heat maps for low possession defenders dont really tell you anything useful except they got those possessions either where a lot of other players did or where bugger all players got their possesions. Thats what I have taken from the individual heat maps and the discussion of the last 3 pages. The team heat maps obviously tell us a lot more about what happened in the game.

 

[Janus]

Confirms the conclusion I came to last night while I was looking at more heat maps. It's just a basic overview of where possessions took place and nothing more. Generally speaking a player is more likely to get a possession if they are in that area for a larger proportion of time, but this is not a hard and fast rule especially these days. More and more players rotate through different positions and areas of the ground, through a quarter and a match. They might even have different roles to play or areas to guard depending on where they are playing at the time, or which team has possession of the ball. If these heat maps accounted for quality of possession, metres gained or were influenced by the areas of the field the players actually spent most of their time rather than just where they disposed of the ball they would be much more useful. They're still useful, but I can see them being skewed by certain things during a game and I just wouldn't take them as gospel. More thought will be required to work out what factors caused a particular pattern. Especially if we are trying to analyse what was happening with team defense.

You can still get a pretty accurate summation of team strategy from where most possessions are gathered though - based purely on the increased likelihood of a player being in that particular area due to how the team has setup their defense. Since most scores are created through turnovers these days, the likelihood that a possession chain will be forward of center in a counter-press increases. You're right that there are certain things that can skew it, but let's put it this way - if you're locked into your defensive 50 for a quarter and most of your possessions don't go forward of center, the 'heat map' will indicate that most of the play is in your back half. Even if you manage to get a goal over the top it's not going to make a difference because there is no system to the play.

Look at Adelaide as an example of this - if you analyze where most of their possessions are, it is in the back half because they play counter-attack and that is where they force turnovers for the majority of the time. Hawthorn, on the other hand, possess the ball through the midfield primarily because their defensive zone is setup to capitalize on a turnover through the center of the ground.

The other data would be fantastic though - but I'm pretty sure that no club would allow you to have it as it would be intellectual property. So we make do with what we have.

 

[bluemoon86]

I haven't had a chance to think about this too closely yet. I'm just saying the heatmaps could occassionally be misleading and we just need to be on the lookout for things that skew the results.

Possession density in smaller areas will dominate so movement dominated by short kicks and overhandballing will look alot different to a team that switches alot and plays with longer kicks out through the wings. An individual player dominating a role like Mcgoverns intercept marking for West Coast could make their defensive strategy look different than it actually is. Or a side totally steamrolling another in all facets of the game especially from the centre bounce and stoppages will mean we don't get a good picture of what the team on the backfoot was actually trying to do with their defensive structure if they can't produce the turnovers that show up the dots on the map.

We should be able to account for these though by watching the games, and looking at opposing team and individual player heatmaps where required when we see an outlier. Especially now that we have a full understanding of what these maps actually represent and what their limitations are.

Am I crazy or did the AFL matchcentre back in the day produce a more detailed on field map that showed each possession chain clearly with dots/circles for possessions and links between them for the last run of play? I seem to remember watching this play out while listening to games on the radio when I couldn't get watch on TV or get to the game.

 

[R_Gray_Jnr_Jnr]

I guess my question regarding what the heat maps actually mean wasn't a bad one. It seems as though no-one actually knows and it is funny that some on here have been analysing them and using them to back up theories and game plans etc without being able to explain what the heat map symbols i.e. blue dots, yellow shading red shading, actually mean.

 

[Janus]

I guess my question regarding what the heat maps actually mean wasn't a bad one. It seems as though no-one actually knows and it is funny that some on here have been analysing them and using them to back up theories and game plans etc without being able to explain what the heat map symbols i.e. blue dots, yellow shading red shading, actually mean.

Champion Data just explained what they mean. If you're too obtuse to realize that it doesn't effect anything in this thread then jog on to the Changes vs Carlton one and post some more garbage about selections from your 'source'.

 

[R_Gray_Jnr_Jnr]

Champion Data just explained what they mean. If you're too obtuse to realize that it doesn't effect anything in this thread then jog on to the Changes vs Carlton one and post some more garbage about selections from your 'source'.

Why do you get so defensive when someone comments on your opinions? You seem like a very intelligent person, surely there's no need for the insecurity and defensiveness.

 

[DaTBird187]

Am I crazy or did the AFL matchcentre back in the day produce a more detailed on field map that showed each possession chain clearly with dots/circles for possessions and links between them for the last run of play? I seem to remember watching this play out while listening to games on the radio when I couldn't get watch on TV or get to the game.

Haha I remember that. I used to follow that little line around whilst listening on the radio when I was living overseas. Must be at least 4-5 years since they had that feature. There used to be live chat as well in Match Centre. Language must have got a bit blue and they cancelled it.

 

[DaTBird187]

Champion Data just explained what they mean. If you're too obtuse to realize that it doesn't effect anything in this thread then jog on to the Changes vs Carlton one and post some more garbage about selections from your 'source'.

 

[Janus]

Why do you get so defensive when someone comments on your opinions? You seem like a very intelligent person, surely there's no need for the insecurity and defensiveness.

You confuse defensiveness with aggression. If you have something of value to add to the thread I've got no problem with you stating your opinion or commenting on mine. I've had several robust discussions about certain subjects on this forum (Moore vs Young was a big one that I'm pleased to say I lost going by Aaron's performances this year), but at the end of the day I don't take it personally because at least those people have formed a viewpoint, even if it is contrarian to mine. That's how anything of value is created - by the dissemination of ideas.

 

[Spadge]

So if the heat map only tracks possession then they wont show anything about the effectiveness of our press right?

 

[R_Gray_Jnr_Jnr]

You confuse defensiveness with aggression. If you have something of value to add to the thread I've got no problem with you stating your opinion or commenting on mine. I've had several robust discussions about certain subjects on this forum (Moore vs Young was a big one that I'm pleased to say I lost going by Aaron's performances this year), but at the end of the day I don't take it personally because at least those people have formed a viewpoint, even if it is contrarian to mine. That's how anything of value is created - by the dissemination of ideas.

All I was saying was it was quite funny that yourself and others were quoting these heat maps to back up some type of argument or theory regarding our game plan, but not until recently did you or the others have any idea what the maps actually meant.

In other words, now that CD has advised what the heat maps actually mean, are your posts from earlier on in this thread valid, or have you changed your opinion on the relevance and meaning of the heat map with regards to our game plan.

 

[bluemoon86]

I guess my question regarding what the heat maps actually mean wasn't a bad one. It seems as though no-one actually knows and it is funny that some on here have been analysing them and using them to back up theories and game plans etc without being able to explain what the heat map symbols i.e. blue dots, yellow shading red shading, actually mean.

It wasn't a bad question. It's helped confirm the maps pretty much mean what we think they mean, however they are worked out in a more basic manner than some of us anticipated and may require a little extra thought at times.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Why do you get so defensive when someone comments on your opinions? You seem like a very intelligent person, surely there's no need for the insecurity and defensiveness.

You do seem a bit rude imo

 

[Janus]

So if the heat map only tracks possession then they wont show anything about the effectiveness of our press right?

It still should. The large majority of possessions would be generated where the number of players are at their highest - for example, if you manage to turn the ball over in your back half most of the time because you stack your backline, the transition period (moving from defense to attack) with a handball chain will create a larger amount of possessions in that area. So a press will still generate more possessions higher up the field as opposed to a slingshot style which generates most possessions in defense.

Add to that the fact that through a transition players will find themselves in certain key areas due to pushing forward and the effectiveness of the press will be even more apparent through where those higher possession numbers are generated. You should even be able to see how well we run and spread, because the red will be where turnovers occur, and the yellow will be spread options.

Does that make sense?

 

[Janus]

All I was saying was it was quite funny that yourself and others were quoting these heat maps to back up some type of argument or theory regarding our game plan, but not until recently did you or the others have any idea what the maps actually meant.

In other words, now that CD has advised what the heat maps actually mean, are your posts from earlier on in this thread valid, or have you changed your opinion on the relevance and meaning of the heat map with regards to our game plan.

Spadge asked first, but the answer is the same. And all my posts about our game plan are still valid.

 

[bluemoon86]

Haha I remember that. I used to follow that little line around whilst listening on the radio when I was living overseas. Must be at least 4-5 years since they had that feature. There used to be live chat as well in Match Centre. Language must have got a bit blue and they cancelled it.

That feature back then combined with the possession maps and heat maps we have now would make for some pretty amazing data analysis.

 

[Spadge]

It still should. The large majority of possessions would be generated where the number of players are at their highest - for example, if you manage to turn the ball over in your back half most of the time because you stack your backline, the transition period (moving from defense to attack) with a handball chain will create a larger amount of possessions in that area. So a press will still generate more possessions higher up the field as opposed to a slingshot style which generates most possessions in defense.

Add to that the fact that through a transition players will find themselves in certain key areas due to pushing forward and the effectiveness of the press will be even more apparent through where those higher possession numbers are generated. You should even be able to see how well we run and spread, because the red will be where turnovers occur, and the yellow will be spread options.

Does that make sense?

makes perfect sense

 

[Janus]

So you're probably thinking "What the **** am I looking at?" This chart plots the variation of performances for this year for wins and losses for teams that have a legitimate shot of making the eight. Going from left to right, it goes - Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Port Adelaide, West Coast, GWS, Melbourne, Adelaide, Hawthorn.

What does this have to do with tactics? Quite a lot, actually. Take a look at the Bulldogs for example. Their entire gameplan is based around defence, which is win or lose they are always have a standard defence. That's why if you play them, you have to concentrate on defending hard, because you know they will be. Conversely, look up at the yelllow triangle of Adelaide - they are the polar opposite of the Bulldogs. They don't really defend all that much, but they attack exceptionally well, win or lose. It's for this reason that the game between these two sides was so close - it literally was two opposing methodologies at work.

Also, note GWS in orange - their gameplan is also based around defence, but because of their more attacking nature and greater talent pool they find themselves with a relatively small variation in the points they concede (which is good but not as good as the best defensive team in the Bulldogs) but a large variation in points scored.

So what of Port Adelaide? Well, it's actually hard to say. Along with West Coast, you can't really get a read on how well we are performing because our losses have been so catastrophic. This was more an exercise to analyze the other sides. Oh, and I won't be surprised if one or all of Adelaide, Hawthorn and North Melbourne miss the eight.

 

[bluemoon86]

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/race-for-the-flag-in-squiggly-lines.1022679/

Speaking of charting teams based on points for and against I quite like this guys system.

 

[Janus]

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/race-for-the-flag-in-squiggly-lines.1022679/

Speaking of charting teams based on points for and against I quite like this guys system.

Yeah Final Siren has a great method for predicting outcomes based on algorithms, but I'm looking a variations in performance. You see, no matter how bad or good a team is they will constantly focus on a key element - either attack or defence. Those that are offense based - Sydney, Adelaide, Melbourne, Hawthorn, North Melbourne - versus those that are defense based - Western Bulldogs, Geelong, GWS, West Coast. It's really how many points on average they concede in a loss that will tell you what their game style focuses on - a defensive team will always try to limit opposition scores first and foremost, while an offensive team will focus internally and try to score more.

This is why the season is genuinely even and anyone writing off any team is stupid - there are no clear standouts that do BOTH well at this stage. Each side has weaknesses that can be exploited. The only side playing premiership winning football at this stage is Sydney.

 

[R_Gray_Jnr_Jnr]

What we need to do is drop the whole defense first game plan. Yes its all well and good but it takes away from our offense.

If we can spread our focus into both aspects fo the game both offense and defense we would have a far superior plan to those who are focusing on one aspect.

Some would argue that we should be defensive minded first, but then what that actually means is we are hoping our opposition gets teh ball and we create a turnover to score. Whereas a better method would be to GET the ball first, have clean and efficient use of it and get it down the throat of Charlie or Westhoff.

I feel as thought the 'Weapon' plan (the W sign westhoff put up after he scored last week, which is when he seeks permission to drop back and be the lose man is counter productive. yes it may try to stop and sway momentum, but he needs to permanently be up forward as our second tall. OR alternatively we need another tall (Howard or Butcher) who permanently sits up front whit Big Dix, and then Westhoff can have the free licence to be our third tall up front or the lose man down back.

We should sacrifice offense for defense. let's get on teh front foot and make the opposition focus on defense and cause their own errors.