AFL 2017 - AFL Round 1

[Keystone agony]

Am I the only one who is bullish on Freo this year?
They've recruited Bradley Hill (HAWKS), Kersten (GEEL), Mccarthy (GWS), and Hamling
They also get back Fyfe, Sandilands who will benefit from the third man up rule, and Johnson.
I feel as tho they could be one of the teams along with the Saints and Dees to wrestle for 8th.

Certainly 1 spot is open to a team making it and wont surprise me if 2 are with maybe a Geelong falling out the only way.

Freo along with teams from 7th-16th are one of those sides.

Although im basically ruling out North and Port i think theyre bottom 4 this year and collingwood might not recover from this poor off season start and injuries.

 

[apolis]

Tigers @ $2 on Ladbrokes Bet Blast ($50 Max)

Taking this and 1u on Tigers 40+ @ 4.80

 

[Trucker Tiger]

Taking this and 1u on Tigers 40+ @ 4.80

A fellow Tiger friend is trying to convince me the 150-1 for Richmond by 100+ (Sportsbet) is a good bet.

 

[Watts4Dinner]

A fellow Tiger friend is trying to convince me the 150-1 for Richmond by 100+ (Sportsbet) is a good bet.

Oh dear. The Tigs are working themselves into a lather before R1 again!

 

[Trucker Tiger]

Oh dear. The Tigs are working themselves into a lather before R1 again!

I think it's more about Carlton being putrid. He also predicts Richmond has no chance of making the eight.

 

[csnody]

I'm not taking it, but anyone who thinks Carlton are a chance:

Ladbrokes - $50*$2.00 (Tigers WIN)
Sportsbet - $50*$2.70 (Blues WIN)

If you're confident blues will win you make $35. Otherwise you get your money back.

 

[karaoke]

Ladbrokes just re instated me.

How did you find this out?

 

[langdon19]

How did you find this out?

Asked them on live chat.
So hard not to do a Duritz when getting promos re instated.

 

[Macpotata]

I know the blues aren't much chop but I couldn't trust nor put my hard earned on Richmond.

Look out for that Petrevski kid for the blues making his debut tonight. The lad goes alright.

 

[langdon19]

$9 for Franklin not to kick a behind SB mega bet, is this value??

 

[Zevon]

$9 for Franklin not to kick a behind SB mega bet, is this value??

While I haven't got any stats to back this up, it certainly seems value to me. If you placed that bet on every game Buddy plays this year, even if he somehow manages to play all 22 games you'd only need to land that bet 3 times to make a profit.

Would be good to know how many times over the last few seasons he hasn't scored a behind. If it's 3 times a year, or even just 2 times for seasons where he played 18 games or less, then you're laughing.

EDIT: What I haven't taken into account is his opposition. I guess you wouldn't be getting $9 if he was playing against Rance and unlikely to be getting many shots at goal, for example. Still reckon it's value though.

 

[laam]

While I haven't got any stats to back this up, it certainly seems value to me. If you placed that bet on every game Buddy plays this year, even if he somehow manages to play all 22 games you'd only need to land that bet 3 times to make a profit.

Would be good to know how many times over the last few seasons he hasn't scored a behind. If it's 3 times a year, or even just 2 times for seasons where he played 18 games or less, then you're laughing.

EDIT: What I haven't taken into account is his opposition. I guess you wouldn't be getting $9 if he was playing against Rance and unlikely to be getting many shots at goal, for example. Still reckon it's value though.

He did it only once during the home and away last year and 4 times the year before.

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

 

[mookieb]

I think it's more about Carlton being putrid. He also predicts Richmond has no chance of making the eight.

The line has come down, so i'm on Richmond -10.5. Carlton are going for youth and Richmond have added three solid players from last year. Blues have been putrid in the pre-season and look to have some serious problems generating some decent scores. Also taking Richmond with the assortment of promo offers available.

 

[MAGA]

Another 5U on Richmond. I think they are a gift.

Also .5U on QClash being the closest match of the round at $9

 

[Zevon]

He did it only once during the home and away last year and 4 times the year before.

Great info, cheers

 

[Zevon]

The line has come down, so i'm on Richmond -10.5. Carlton are going for youth and Richmond have added three solid players from last year. Blues have been putrid in the pre-season and look to have some serious problems generating some decent scores.

Another 5U on Richmond. I think they are a gift.

Agree. The only argument people seem to be making against Richmond is... that they're Richmond. I do understand that mentality but I don't buy into it quite as much as others. Are they absolute certainties? No (who is?). But are they value at $1.48? Absolutely.

 

[happy punter]

Merry xmas everyone! That's what it feels like with footy back


Blues +15.5 over Tigers @ 1.80 (2 units)
Blues ML over Tigers @ 2.90 (0.5 unit)

Both from Topsport

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Rich -14.5
Coll +14.5
Melb
Syd 1-39
Haw 20-39
GC
Nth
Gws o 15.5
Fre +11.5

5 @ 1124.60

 

[Keystone agony]

Richmonds lack of scoring power against a fairly strong carlton backline definitely their strongest part of the ground concerns me. Also is Prestia playing?

 

[iluvparis]

Richmonds lack of scoring power against a fairly strong carlton backline definitely their strongest part of the ground concerns me. Also is Prestia playing?

As of last night he was

 

[Keystone agony]

0.25u Carlton FGS - $34 Weitering (TabTouch)
$32.50 Carlton @3.10 (crown)
$50 Tigers @2 (Ladbrokes special)
0.5U Marchbank <78.5 DT @1.70

 

[freo_leo29]

Bet365 have entered the player disposals market this year, hopefully good for some arbs

 

[Keystone agony]

I'm not taking it, but anyone who thinks Carlton are a chance:

Ladbrokes - $50*$2.00 (Tigers WIN)
Sportsbet - $50*$2.70 (Blues WIN)

If you're confident blues will win you make $35. Otherwise you get your money back.

Carlton are paying way more then that elsewhere. Theyre over 3 at some places

 

[Macpotata]

Petrevski to get a goal tonight wonder what that's paying. CBf looking. He'll get over 10 possies too I reckon if he's not a sub.

 

[Special Agent Utah]

Prestia more Possesions than Sam Docherty @ $2.10

Dusty under 30 @ $1.85