AFL 2017 - AFL Round 4

[benji21]

Think the overs looks good in a few games. A fair few of saturdays games

Edit: going 0.5U 221 points or more GWS v Port @7.10

 

[maskmcgee]

I just flipped a coin 10 times. It landed on heads every single time. So I'm loading up on tails at short odds on the next flip. Long overdue IMO

But a draw is at very long odds.

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

But a draw is at very long odds.

Funny isn't it, should be much shorter because there can only be 3 results in a match (win/lose/draw) so you have a 33.3% chance. You could be on to something here

 

[Fuzzy Happy Poo]

Funny isn't it, should be much shorter because there can only be 3 results in a match (win/lose/draw) so you have a 33.3% chance. You could be on to something here

actually it should be 50/50, it's either a draw or not a draw.

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

actually it should be 50/50, it's either a draw or not a draw.

Even better!

 

[Lensen]

it's also the only margin that's guaranteed to be the live margin at some point

 

[targett]

Could be worth looking at Hawks first quarter line, or something like that.

If you go back to Round 20 against Melbourne last year, Hawthorn has only won 2 of its last 9 games. And one of those wins was by a point.

 

[maskmcgee]

what do you think of hawks to win the toss @1.88?

 

[DylanR]

what do you think of hawks to win the toss @1.88?

Unders for sure

 

[Spads]

it's also the only margin that's guaranteed to be the live margin at some point

Yeah, then you can cash out for ca$h money prophets.

 

[big_bazza]

Can you not bet on Supercoach scores on sportsbet anymore ?

 

[iluvparis]

If you go back to Round 20 against Melbourne last year, Hawthorn has only won 2 of its last 9 games. And one of those wins was by a point.

Nice stat

 

[Jugada]

Sportsbet have their lines back to front with the Saints vs Pies match.. Nothing big as the line is only 2.5 but yeah, if you're quick and want to try to get on it

 

[free at last]

Swans line out to +17.5 (SB)...Do the swans have more injuries?

 

[Armesy]

WC on a 5 days break travel back from Victoria. If the lines get out to 20pts then Sydney is worth a bet.

Sydney have to travel further. This does not effect the outcome. If anything, WC players should be more conditioned to the travel.

 

[TheLP]

Sportsbet have their lines back to front with the Saints vs Pies match.. Nothing big as the line is only 2.5 but yeah, if you're quick and want to try to get on it

Why do you believe the Saints should not be favoured in that game?

 

[Jugada]

Why do you believe the Saints should not be favoured in that game?

My point was that Sportsbet have the Saints listed as favourites but then also have them with the +2.5 line instead up the minus. It's just an error from them

 

[TheLP]

My point was that Sportsbet have the Saints listed as favourites but then also have them with the +2.5 line instead up the minus. It's just an error from them

Oh well spotted!

 

[langdon19]

Think the overs looks good in a few games. A fair few of saturdays games

Edit: going 0.5U 221 points or more GWS v Port @7.10

Which games?

 

[benno_]

Can you not bet on Supercoach scores on sportsbet anymore ?

You can, but the markets aren't usually available until late in the week. Normally comes out on Friday morning I think

 

[CarterS]

Looks like Collingwood have come in to very slight favouritism against St Kilda.

Thinking of backing Carlton @ 2.20.

 

[TheLP]

H2H Edge Maximisation

6% Mel vs Freo @ 1.36
2% Car vs GC @ 2.17
6% Stk vs Col @ 2.02
6% Ade vs Ess @ 1.23

NOTE: Adelaide and Carlton lines have moved downwards since priced. Saints are now the underdogs which is incredibly interesting.

 

[targett]

H2H Edge Maximisation

6% Mel vs Freo @ 1.36
2% Car vs GC @ 2.17
6% Stk vs Col @ 2.02
6% Ade vs Ess @ 1.23

NOTE: Adelaide and Carlton lines have moved downwards since priced. Saints are now the underdogs which is incredibly interesting.

What is this

 

[TheLP]

What is this

Recommendations for the week based on edge maximisation.
Looking for bookie mispricing based on no-vig implied probabilities set by bookies.

I am posting this to use with your knowledge of the teams and you can make pretty good bets.

No point placing a bet if it is fully priced.

 

[iluvparis]

Do you by any chance know a man by the name of Brett?