List Mgmt. 2018 Draft/Trade/FA Thread

[17er]

Is Holman stayed on as Rookie list player or is he been upgraded to senior list like Macpherson ?

Holman and MacPherson both upgraded. There are 38 senior players and 2 Academy players on our list with Rischa promised a Rookie spot. A lot of trades/delistings to go if we are drafting 6 or 7 players in the ND plus filling up our Rookie list. That's why I hope the AFL doesn't require us to spend picks on these Mature agers they mooted, just stash them on the Rookie list.

 

[SnusCG]

I begin to see now where you are coming from and appreciate the work you've put into the reply. I have used similar arguments to show why the Weller Trade was actually a smart trade given how high picks can also flame out. You're being kind to top 5 picks with your ratings here, but as it suits your argument I can see why you've made these choices.

My point is that the Suns can get another 4 picks in the Top 10, probably even better placed this time, while you are suggesting trades that disadvantage the Suns. We are both aiming at the same goal, I'm just aiming ambitiously and you are paying with cynical coin because we never seem to get the best of these deals. We'll likely see a result somewhere in the middle, so I'm happy to say your prediction is baseline realistic and mine is optimistically ambitious.

It would be an interesting exercise to give a points value range based on the kind of metrics you are using. I don't have that kind of time, but if the risk factors and player ratings were calculated I wonder how far apart the point charts would be. Your argument is that high picks would be worth more, but I reckon it comes down to the motivations of the trade partners. The O'Mearas and Lynches of Suns history make our club's record look ordinary. I just want to be able to hit this year's trade period with everything we've got and absolutely dominate proceedings.

Your last sentence is different to what I've read and heard as it is pretty widely documented that McGrath was always going first while Brisbane wanted the boys from North Ballarat as a package.

GWS Initiated the trade to try and land McGrath. I remember seeing a video of Cal Twomey a few days before the draft where he said something along the lines of 'as it become clear Essendon will now take McGrath at 1, reports are that the Giants have made scheduled a late meeting with Taranto and look poised to take him if McGrath is off the table'

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-13/swapfest-sees-giants-land-no2-pick
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-11/trade-wrap-giants-target-pick-no2

"GREATER Western Sydney is still targeting the Brisbane Lions' No.2 pick despite claiming pick No.3 in the trade that sent Cameron McCarthy to Fremantle on Tuesday."
"In addition to increasing the Giants' chances of landing their preferred player at the draft – Andrew McGrath and Hugh McCluggage are high on their radar"
"The Giants may use selection No.2 on running defender Andy McGrath if he remains available after Essendon has used its No.1 draft pick."

I also don't know who you think i'm being kind to in that list of top 5 picks - every green player played almost a full season besides those with injuries.

 

[SnusCG]

But Giving up a top 5 pick , could also set you up if you pick the right players available .
I could have pick Jack Darling at pick 19 , Luke Parker at pick 29 and Lyons/puopolo at pick 41 and gave away pick 4 GAff , Sam Day, Swallow , bennell.

Yes it could, but as I showed, since 2010, that has not happened in ANY of the drafts. And by this logic carlton should trade pick 1 for 3 picks in the 20's because they 'could' set themselves up with the best players. I guarantee you it wont happen and if it did, it would be a failed trade.

 

[Scotty_222]

In general this year, I would be happy if we tried to bundle and move up. Need some A grade young talent not just more young talent. Especially if we throw a PP in the mix, that is a lot of picks.

In the case of the Saints, they don't have 2nd or 3rd rounders this year and might need some later picks to get deals done. That Eagles pick plus an end of 1st round priority pick would be ripe for a trade up.

The draft drops off quite quickly at the back of the first round. Seeing as they are linked to both Wingard and Hannebery hey may look to split that top pick into two end of firsts

 

[Peel67skin]

Yes it could, but as I showed, since 2010, that has not happened in ANY of the drafts. And by this logic carlton should trade pick 1 for 3 picks in the 20's because they 'could' set themselves up with the best players. I guarantee you it wont happen and if it did, it would be a failed trade.

How do you know that different recruiters (other club) are going to pick the same players
: Shaun Atley (North ) , Scott Lycett ( Eagles ), Tom Liberatore ( Bulldog )

 

[SandyToes]

But Giving up a top 5 pick , could also set you up if you pick the right players available .
I could have pick Jack Darling at pick 19 , Luke Parker at pick 29 and Lyons/puopolo at pick 41 and gave away pick 4 GAff , Sam Day, Swallow , bennell.

If you knew anything about the Jack Darling selection you wouldn't be using him as an example
He slipped to West Coast based on what was in all likelihood an intricate ruse to question his character

 

[Peel67skin]

If you knew anything about the Jack Darling selection you wouldn't be using him as an example
He slipped to West Coast based on what was in all likelihood an intricate ruse to question his character

Replace him with Issac Smith then .Just just as an example that not every pick at 10+ (Fyfe ,Issac Smith ) , 20+ (Tim Kelly , Flitsh ) ,30+ ( Sam Mitchell ) , 40+ ,50+ ( Neale , Walters ) are bad pick .

 

[SandyToes]

Replace him with Issac Smith then .

Smith is a better example sure

 

[Myles]

2010 draft

You can pick all this players at pick 19
2010: pick 24 Jamie Cripps , pick 26 Jack Darling ,

pick 29
pick 29 Scott Lycett , pick 33 Jeremy Howe , pick 40 Luke Parker ,
pick 41
pick 45 Alex Fasolo , pick 53 Tom McDonald ,pick 61 Jarred Lyons , pick 66 Paul puopolo , Pick 76 Paul Seedman.

* You got the power to choose the right players, if they are available at your pick .

That's a big over oversimplification of the draft, sure those players could be there at later picks but they have to be put in the correct position to succeed. Picking in the top 5 gives you a better chance of getting a player that has the talent to be best 22. Sure you can get lucky with later picks but basing your drafting strategy around hoping a best 22 player is there at a later pick isn't a smart decision.

 

[Peel67skin]

That's a big over oversimplification of the draft, sure those players could be there at later picks but they have to be put in the correct position to succeed. Picking in the top 5 gives you a better chance of getting a player that has the talent to be best 22. Sure you can get lucky with later picks but basing your drafting strategy around hoping a best 22 player is there at a later pick isn't a smart decision.

Well you tell it to Hawthorn then ,

I will take 50/50 chances than one chances at pick 4 .

Issac Smith (pick 17+ )- swallow
Hallahan ( Burn pick )- bennell ( 3 AFL games in 2 years)
Angus Litherland ( Burn Pick )- Sam Day
puopolo ( pick 50+ )- caddy .

 

[Myles]

Well you tell it to Hawthorn then ,

I will take 50/50 chances than one chances at pick 4 .

Issac Smith (pick 17+ )
Hallahan ( Burn pick )
Angus Litherland ( Burn Pick )
puopolo ( pick 50+ )

Using Hawthorn as an example doesn't compare to us. They had a good enough team at the time to experiment with players like that to take a chance on. While we just need top talent all around to improve the team.

 

[Peel67skin]

Using Hawthorn as an example doesn't compare to us. They had a good enough team at the time to experiment with players like that to take a chance on. While we just need top talent all around to improve the team.

So what's wrong with going in with Pick 2,3 with Eagles first round pick , if St Kilda not interested to trade pick 4 into multiple pick with GC . You already get two pick in top 5 .

 

[Mitchell54]

i'm not 'overvaluing picks'. You guys are just overvaluing points - a system only created so there was a fair way for teams to lose picks based on where their academy or father son's were bid on.

a top 5 pick means a top 5 rated junior prospect. one that will likely become an A grade player. they have a very very low rate of failure.
since 2010:

2010: David Swallow, Sam Day, Harley Bennell, Andrew Gaff, Jared Polec
2011: Jonathon Patton, Stephen Coniglio, Dom Tyson, Will Hoskin-Elliot, Matt Buntine
2012: Lachie Whitfield, Jonathon O'Rourke, Lachie Plowman, Jimmy Toumpas, Jake Stringer
2013: Tom Boyd, Josh Kelly, Jack Billings, Marcus Bontempelli, Kade Kolodjashnij
2014: Paddy McCartin, Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, Jarrod Pickett, Jordan De Goey
2015: Jacob Weitering, Josh Schache, Callum Mills, Clayton Oliver, Darcy Parish
2016: Andrew McGrath, Tim Taranto, Hugh McCluggage, Ben Ainsworth, Will Setterfield
2017: Cam Rayner, Andrew Brayshaw, Paddy Dow, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Adam Cerra

*Bolder players have been de-listed
*Green players A graders or best half of their teams first 22 (estimated for those 2016 on)
*Orange lower section of best 22
*Red not best 22 but still on list

That's 7 All Australians, 2 rising stars, 25 first picked players. 5 players that are lower best 22 players, 6 players that aren't best 22 (all except Dom Tyson have been held back by recurrent injury and concussions) and only 2 players in 8 years that have been delisted.
If You want to ONLY compare to pick 4, thats 3 All Australians, 5 first 22 picked, 1 non best 22, 1 delisted and Luke Davies-Uniacke who is developing

Compare that to 19, 29 and 41

2010: Shaun Atley, Scott Lycett, Tom Liberatore
2011: Clay Smith, Alex Forster, Mitch Grigg
2012: Josh Simpson, Tim O'Brien, Mason Wood
2013: Michael Apeness, Rory Lobb, Jake Kolodjashnij
2014: Kyle Langford, Touk Miller, Jack Lonie
2015: Tom Doedee, Alex Morgan, Matthew Flynn
2016: Jarrod Berry, Shai Bolton, Brennan Cox
2017: Jack Higgins, Charlie Spargo, Toby Wooller

0 All Australians, 0 rising stars, 7 first picked 22 players, 5 lower half 22 players, 7 players that are list cloggers and 5 that are already delisted. with Lonie, Flynn, Morgan , and O'Brien not looking like being on lists for much longer.

Top 5 picks are, and always will be worth more than their 'points value' indicates. Obviously you can get good players later in the draft, but it is so much rarer.

Also the only reason that Brisbane traded there was because they got offered essentially pick 16 for a 1 pick downgrade - knowing full well that GWS was desperate to get Andrew McGrath (Which didn't end up happening because Essendon grabbed him) and because they were expecting Essendon to take McCluggage.

Appreciate the work that you've put into this post although there are a couple errors in the delisting

Both O'Rourke & Wood are still on lists.
Clay Smith retired so he wasn't delisted and its no fault of the team if a player retires due to injury.

Don't think Taranto(probably just below 11) and definitely Patton are not upper 22 of best.

Brennan Cox is another who isn't top 11.

Think some in red are harshly tagged as List cloggers.
Wood is making progress. Kicked 1.7 goals per game in which if he averages that over a whole season its 40 goals.
Also Jack Lonie found some form in the latter portion of the season kicking 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 rounds.

Theres a 50% strike rate with top 5 players in terms of playing 200 games. Obviously none of the guys you got in your research have played long enough to reach that milestone.

 

[Myles]

So what's wrong with going in with Pick 2,3 with Eagles first round pick , if St Kilda not interested to trade pick 4 into multiple pick with GC . You already get two pick in top 5 .

That's fine to do, hoping that late round picks will turn into stars slows down our rebuild. We need all he best 22 talent we can get and hoping to get that in later rounds is less consistent then in getting those players in the top 5.

 

[17er]

GWS Initiated the trade to try and land McGrath. I remember seeing a video of Cal Twomey a few days before the draft where he said something along the lines of 'as it become clear Essendon will now take McGrath at 1, reports are that the Giants have made scheduled a late meeting with Taranto and look poised to take him if McGrath is off the table'

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-13/swapfest-sees-giants-land-no2-pick
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-11/trade-wrap-giants-target-pick-no2

"GREATER Western Sydney is still targeting the Brisbane Lions' No.2 pick despite claiming pick No.3 in the trade that sent Cameron McCarthy to Fremantle on Tuesday."
"In addition to increasing the Giants' chances of landing their preferred player at the draft – Andrew McGrath and Hugh McCluggage are high on their radar"
"The Giants may use selection No.2 on running defender Andy McGrath if he remains available after Essendon has used its No.1 draft pick."

I also don't know who you think i'm being kind to in that list of top 5 picks - every green player played almost a full season besides those with injuries.

I was mainly referring to the Lions motivation to agree to the trade.

The main player you’ve been kind to is LDU, who on the evidence is not top 22 yet. He will be, but it exposes your method.

As I said, there aren’t many examples of pure pick trades and when there are they are heavily influenced by competing motivations. As such I think the Suns should use the 2 late first rounders separately in trades to get top 10 picks. St Kilda and Freo aren’t the only potential partners. If you’re right and the available pick can’t get 2 top 10picks then early teens in just as good in this deep Draft.

 

[Peel67skin]

That's fine to do, hoping that late round picks will turn into stars slows down our rebuild. We need all he best 22 talent we can get and hoping to get that in later rounds is less consistent then in getting those players in the top 5.

You still need to spend time in their development, no point picking few top 5 pick and get injured all the time . (Sam Day , Bennell,Swallow ). I like to have 3 top 5 pick but if Two top 5 and Two pick in 10-20 i am happy as well . There are no magic pills .

 

[SandyToes]

Appreciate the work that you've put into this post although there are a couple errors in the delisting

Both O'Rourke & Wood are still on lists.
Clay Smith retired so he wasn't delisted and its no fault of the team if a player retires due to injury.

Don't think Taranto(probably just below 11) and definitely Patton are not upper 22 of best.

Brennan Cox is another who isn't top 11.

Think some in red are harshly tagged as List cloggers.
Wood is making progress. Kicked 1.7 goals per game in which if he averages that over a whole season its 40 goals.
Also Jack Lonie found some form in the latter portion of the season kicking 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 rounds.

Theres a 50% strike rate with top 5 players in terms of playing 200 games. Obviously none of the guys you got in your research have played long enough to reach that milestone.

I was thinking if Mason Wood was being delisted I'd be on his doorstep with a Suns guernsey and a contract tonight

 

[thurls64]

Just realised how underwhelming and telling it is that our only publicly announced trade target by the club is Horlin-Smith, a bloke that cannot get a game in a side barely in 8th place and sliding - **** that's depressing

Meanwhile the Lions get Lachie Neale and St Kilda linked to some big names as well as Carlton

 

[Peel67skin]

and

 

[THE_GUN]

Graham , Jayden Short , Nathan Broad said Hello .

The post that you quoted has a word in it 'Usually' not exclusively

 

[GcSunsfan]

Just realised how underwhelming and telling it is that our only publicly announced trade target by the club is Horlin-Smith, a bloke that cannot get a game in a side barely in 8th place and sliding - **** that's depressing

Meanwhile the Lions get Lachie Neale and St Kilda linked to some big names as well as Carlton

I'd say it's got something to do with the salary cap issues we have.

We will be limited to bringing in players like Horlin-Smith and a few cheap players from Richmond and the state league players this trade period

 

[kreglze]

I'd say it's got something to do with the salary cap issues we have.

We will be limited to bringing in players like Horlin-Smith and a few cheap players from Richmond and the state league players this trade period

It was mentioned that the strategy of this trade period is to get some solid midfielders from lower leagues and cheap players from other teams.

Then next off season make some big movements for some top quality players.

 

[GcSunsfan]

It was mentioned that the strategy of this trade period is to get some solid midfielders from lower leagues and cheap players from other teams.

Then next off season make some big movements for some top quality players.

This is why

 

[THE_GUN]

GWS brought in players like Silvagni,Deboer,Mazughu (excuse spelling) which all played a part in the development and standards at the club
Not all 44 players will be guns and a club does not need them to be - Sometimes the club needs these players who are usually more mature to develop the younger players and set examples of professionalism

 

[kreglze]

This is why

Yeah whoever that previous list manager was really set us back a fair way...