$300 boosted. I’m on, following the team captain.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
AFL 2019 Brownlow Medal (after the result bets will get a ban)
- Thread starter TheJanuaryMan
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Oct 13, 2017
- 4,052
- 11,777
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
I’m on that. Did that as soon as team betting opened.
- Oct 13, 2017
- 4,052
- 11,777
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
- Oct 6, 2011
- 36,333
- 11,138
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Have Dangerfield as favourite in my book. Your choices are 1500 guaranteed or all risk for 5500. I haven't watched Geelong close enough this year to make comment.
Danger is looking like he might start around $2 mark and might even trade lower inplay early considering his first 3 games. Cash out is generally a scam and I'd be looking to lay Danger on betfair at low prices. DM me if you want advice, happy to help out someone in this instance to save them from giving back $ to sportsbet.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 36,333
- 11,138
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
I just watched a replay of the highlights of North Melbourne v Essendon Round 17, 2009.
To get 3 votes:
Round 17, 2019
Mc Donald- Tipungwuti $2.00
Ben Brown $2.10
Zach Merrett $5
Robbie Tarrant $13
Conor McKenna $36
Ben Brown had the better overall game with 6 goals, McDonald-Tipungwuti won the match at the crucial moments and kicked 4 goals.
Who would you guys select to win the 3 votes?
id give it to Tipingwuti for that last minute goal that won the Dons the game but you could make a strong case for Ben brown as well.
To get 3 votes:
Round 17, 2019
Mc Donald- Tipungwuti $2.00
Ben Brown $2.10
Zach Merrett $5
Robbie Tarrant $13
Conor McKenna $36
Ben Brown had the better overall game with 6 goals, McDonald-Tipungwuti won the match at the crucial moments and kicked 4 goals.
Who would you guys select to win the 3 votes?
id give it to Tipingwuti for that last minute goal that won the Dons the game but you could make a strong case for Ben brown as well.
Taking 25% discount for peace of mind. I can afford to continue, but you may not have that luxury. Could cash out and put half on PD at current odds. $755 or $2832 return approx.
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Bet
People really need to get on the betfair train. If he could get 1.5k roughly matched around current price (obviously very tricky right now but on day probably easily) he would get this as a result. Never use cash out, it's a massive scam.
Attachments
So it costs him $1.5k to lay off ..... so if Danger loses he gets back $2.7k on Betfair - profit $1150. If Danger wins he gets back $5.5k - profit of $4000 Sportsbet??? Have I got this right or could you spell it out for us please?
Assuming that he is able to get the lay fully matched ($1583.58 total lay stake from my screenshot) on betfair at 2.76 (current lay odds), he would return $1515.50 profit if danger loses and $2695.80 if danger were to win (these figures are based on 2.5% commission betfair charges). The biggest issue would be getting a lay of 1583.58 at $2.76 fully matched right now, he might get some of it matched at this price but if he put the full lay down, it probably spooks the market and dangers price drifts out but if punters like Danger, he will narrow again. Best bet is to throw the lays in chunks of $100 or $200 as to not spook the market. There should be no such problems getting matched closer to the day as more liquidity in the markets.Currently only $138k matched on the market but as event gets closer, that will increase as well as the likelyhood of him getting 1.5k lay matched. Does that make sense?
Danger 26.5 looks great to me at tab,I have him around 33-35
Wouldn’t be surprised if one of these guys causes an upset for their respective teams but I can’t see all 3 of them causing an upset. Particularly Pendles as Treloar and Grundy had far better years than him. Grundy polled 17 last year who has had an even better this year and I think combined with the media hype around him he will poll even better this year. Finding it hard to see how pendles can catch up to him realistically he would need to poll 20ish votes to have a chance.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 36,333
- 11,138
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Right now Lindsay is in a position of
-28.49 Dangerfield Doesnt Win Brownlow/ +5511.56 Dangerfield Wins Brownlow
If he were to green up on Betfair at evens (laying) at odds of 2.00
his position would be +$2,770 Dangerfield Doesn't Win Brownlow/+$2,770 Dangerfield Wins Brownlow
If he were to green up on Betfair at higher odds at odds of 2.76 (current)
his position would be +1,976.84 Dangerfield Doesn't win brownlow/+1,976.84 Dangerfield Wins Brownlow
Yes Betfair do take a small portion of commission but you can take close 2k by locking in profit now.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 36,333
- 11,138
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Best thing to do if you have a big multi riding on it, is its ok to do the multis with your sports betting companies. But if you have the remaining leg and want to cash something out, I agree using a betting exchange such as Betfair to lock in profits is always a good thing.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 36,333
- 11,138
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
From my experience , betting in-play on the exchange there can be a lack of in-play liquidity on Betfair. If it gets matched at evens, in my opinion , Dangerfield would more likely go on and win the medal.
PS Note- teaching someone how to use the 'Lay' button on an Exchange can be a confusing process. But its worth knowing.
Womboksgalore
Rookie
- Sep 13, 2018
- 40
- 24
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Rnd 15, Ess v GWS - TJM has D Shiel 3, S McKernan 2. $21 and $7.50 respectively on Beteasy for the 3 votes. Some value there! Lifffft!
I actually like Greene $8.
BYB and Kingpunters both gave him 3.
Didnt see the game though. hedge it with Boak $2.25 who had 40 disposals.
I have Greene and Boak as equal chances of getting the 3 - so $8 for Greene is unreal value
Womboksgalore
Rookie
- Sep 13, 2018
- 40
- 24
- AFL Club
- Essendon
some potential value there!! well done!
Last year Bont had 25+ possies in just 5 games and he polled votes in 3 of them, this year he has done it 17 times.
- Mar 28, 2012
- 2,222
- 3,610
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- Pittsburgh Steelers Perth Scorchers
How sure are we that Zorko(Without Neale), Walters(Without Fyfe), Prestia(Without Dusty), Gawn & Billings win their respective counts?
