Michaels
Brownlow Medallist
- Feb 4, 2006
- 16,587
- 50,867
- AFL Club
- Richmond
Here it is, the final preview of the year!
For the Grand Final preview I have enlisted the help of the other Mods who have covered various topics to help make this preview.
Huge thanks to Sterge tugga and NaturalDisaster for their work.
for those playing at home:
Season so far = tugga
Recent history and stats = NaturalDisaster
Key Matchups = Sterge
Oppo Analysis and other stuff = Me
And with that, I present to you the 2019 Grand Final Preview..
2019 SEASON SO FAR: A trip down memory lane.
What a season it has been.
We’ve ridden every wave the AFL ocean has given us.
The past three years have been kind to us.
Unlikely premiers in 2017, likely premiers in 2018 but fell short and now into a grand final in 2019.
It’s not quite the match up everyone wanted though.
Richmond vs Collingwood would have been epic. Like epic to the point where a million seats would not have been enough on grand final day.
The season started with us being favourites for the flag, when Alex Rance went down with an ACL in round 1, our stocks plummeted.
Arguably the best defender in the comp, Rance’s injury was a huge blow.
Many just simply could not fathom winning a premiership, let alone making top four could happen without him.
Round one was a scrappy affair, but Richmond prevailed by 33 points in front just over 85,000 fans.
Round two saw us come back to earth at the hands of a slick Magpie unit the was too good to the tune of a 44 point win in front of just more than 70,000 people.
Jack Riewoldt broke his wrist leaving an underdone Tom Lynch to play a lone key forward role.
GWS then handed us a lesson in Sydney with a 49-point win but it was really the Jeremy Cameron show. Cameron collected a staggering 30 possessions on his way to an eight-goal haul and best afield honours. It also marked the debut of Sydney Stack, who kicked a goal and acquitted himself well.
At this stage, it looked likely that Rance’s injury was every bit the horror show we thought it was going to be.
In round four the Tigers travelled to Port Adelaide without Rance, Riewoldt, Cotchin and Martin and without a chance in hell of winning.
But Lynch stood tall with six majors and opportunities to the likes of Ellis (28 touches), Jack Ross (25) and Caddy pinch hitting with three goals, the Tigers came away with a stirring seven-point win.
Round five came and went with an uninspiring win against the Swans. A home game at Marvel is what most Richmond supporters dread, but a 22-point win kept the side in touch.
Prestia touched it 32 times, Martin had it 25 times and kicked three goals while Higgins had 25 possessions with more time in the midfield. Higgins also delivered a joke that had the whole team in stitches.
And so it came to Anzac Day eve against a Melbourne side that was struggling, a huge surprise to all.
72,704 turned up to see the Tigers win by 43 points with Houli (32 touches), Prestia (30) and Lambert and Ross (28 each) getting the pill a lot. Castagna kicked three goals and Riewoldt who had recovered from a wrist injury, slotted two.
Round 7 saw us go to Marvel to tackle our bogey side the Western Bulldogs.
Young gun Aaron Naughton put on a clinic up forward for the Dogs with five goals and nine contested marks in the 43 point triumph.
It was a game in which it seemed a lot of the kids we had playing looked tired. Taking nothing away from the Dogs, who never looked like losing and were simply breath-taking.
Round 8 saw a trip to Perth to take on the Dockers. It was the Port game all over again. We lost Ross and Nankervis (who would most of the remainder of the season) during the game and made the trek without Riewoldt, Cotchin, Rance and Vlastuin, but Shai Bolton stood up with four goals and an impressive 25-point win resulted. The win further illustrated Richmond’s emerging youth being able to stand up with key players sidelined.
Round 9 and game against Hawthorn, which was showing signs of playing good, but inconsistent, footy.
McEvoy as inured during the game as was Mitch Lewis while Frawley was a late withdrawal. After a sluggish start, Richmond powered away to win by 36 with Martin (27 touches and 2 goals), Ellis (35), Houli (35) and Caddy (3 goals) the stars.
Dreamtime at the G is always a huge occasion and with the Bombers at their inconsistent best and worst, this had the hallmarks of a close encounter. Just over 80,000 went to the game to see Richmond prevail by 23 points in a game that didn’t reach any great heights as a spectacle. Stringer and Shiel hurt hamstrings, but Houli continued his amazing season was a best on ground display.
In round 11 we faced a North Melbourne side with Rhyce Shaw in his first game in charge after the departure of Brad Scott.
Another one of our bogey sides, the Roos were impressive at Marvel Stadium, winning by 37 points. Houli had it 38 times and Martin kicked three goals, but the Tigers were poor against a slick Roos outfit.
Round 12 was a disaster with Geelong smashing us to the tune of 71 points. Although we were once again undermanned through injury, the Cats took us to the cleaners with Dangerfield, Duncan and Kelly getting 104 possessions between them and with Hawkins (4 goals) and young gun Miers (3 goals) hitting the scoreboard, it was all over very early. Pat Naish debuted and kicked a goal for the Tigers, but our percentage slipped a dangerously low level.
Another road trip to Adelaide to face the Crows and while we were competitive for much of the first three quarters, the Crows slipped it up a gear and cantered to a 33-point win. The big talking point was Sydney Stack and Eddie Betts sharing a laugh after the little goat kicked a typically brilliant Betts goals. I found it refreshing. Move on.
The bye could have come a few weeks earlier, but it really was a godsend for our side. Amazingly we were in the eight.
After a week’s rest and in 9th spot it was the Saints at Marvel. Another of our bogey sides. The Saints played well and had a crack, but Richmond just proved a bit too good with a 33 point win. Martin (38 disposals), Stack (four goals) and Mabior Chol (three goals) were eye catching.
A trip to the Gold Coast would then result in seven consecutive games at the MCG to finish of the home and away season. A 92-point win resulted, giving our percentage the boost it desperately needed. Castagna kicked five, Lynch and Lambert three each in the rout.
A much sterner test awaited in round 17 with GWS travelling to the MCG. We got the jump early and while GWS came back, the rain came and we steadied for an important 27-win to put us in 5th place on the ladder. Houli got 30 touches while Bolton and Ellis each collected 29. Lynch and Lambert each booted three majors.
Port Adelaide travelled to Melbourne for a rare game against Richmond at the MCG. It was something the third time the two sides had played since the turn of the century. Port had a dip, but eventually class prevailed with the Tigers with a 38-point triumph. Prestia and Martin had it 30 times, Houli continued his best ever season with 28 while Lynch slotted a lazy three and Riewoldt kicked three in a showing that suggested the two-prong tall forward line could work.
A huge Friday night clash against Collingwood awaited next up. The Pies had a few injuries of their own. A crowd of 78,722 went to the MCG to see Richmond get home by 32. Martin was BOG with 38 and two goals, Prestia continued his stellar season with 35, Houli had 31 while Lynch booted five goals. The win saw Richmond jump into 4th place on the ladder.
Next up the struggling Demons on a howler of a night weather wise which showed with the final crowd being just 37,254. Once again the usual suspects came to the fore – Martin 34, Houli 32. Prestia 31. Rinse repeat. It was a horribly lacklustre game but Lynch bagged another three in a 33-point win, which resulted in Richmond hanging onto 4th spot on the ladder.
Many considered the round 21 game against a resurgent Carlton a real danger game. The Blues were playing with confidence thanks to David Teague releasing the shackles after the sacking of Brendon Bolton. Richmond kicked the first five goals of the game, but Carlton showed spirit in the second half when, under Bolton, they probably would have folded and lost by 12 goals. The end result a 28-point win to the Tigers with Jack Graham the standout with four goals and 22 touches. Prestia collected another 35 possies and Lambert got 25. The win saw us cling on to 4th spot.
In what could be described as the game of the season, Richmond hosted West Coast at the MCG in round 22 in front of 57,415 fans. The Eagles jumped us at the start, but the Tigers clawed their way. Back into the contest just before the rain started falling. In a see-sawing last quarter that was one for the ages, the Tigers hung on to record a thrilling six-point victory. It truly was a wonderful game of footy between great sides. Yet again it was Martin (35), Houli (34) and Prestia (29) with heaps of the ball. Lynch and Riewoldt combined for five goals and we held onto 4th place with a game to go against the vastly improved Lions.
A win against Brisbane would see us in the top four. A loss would have seen us slip to 5th. The stakes were high for the Lions as well. A win could see them finish top, but they had a home final virtually sewn up regardless. Nearly 77,000 turned up to the game, which was a record for a non-Vic team in Victoria. Needing a 63-point win to jump the Lions into 2nd place, it looked possible at one stage, but the Lions are a resilient lot these days and fought the game out. A 27-point win was probably a fair result. Houli and Prestia with 30 each, four goals to Riewoldt in the first term, and two goals and 21 touches to Martin put the finishing touches on the win. Lachie Neale collected a staggering 51 possessions for the Lions. The result, 3rd place to Richmond and return encounter with the Lions at the Gabba in a qualifying final.
The Lions said they had learned a lot from the MCG encounter and it looked like they had as they played the better in the first half in Brisbane. The Lions midfield was on top, but poor kicking for goals kept Richmond in it. Surprisingly Richmond led at half time. Richmond powered away in the second half with Dustin Martin putting on a clinic with six goals and a throw that would make a rugby league player proud. A 47-point win in the end, showing a chasm between the two sides. Prestia got another 32 and a third-successive preliminary final eventuated.
Our opponents in the prelim, Geelong, had suffered a poor loss to Collingwood in the qualifying final before putting on an impressive display in the semi against the Eagles. Tom Hawkins unsuccessfully challenged a one-match ban and would miss the game along with midfielder Mitch Duncan. The game started a breakneck speed with Richmond leading three goals to one, but Geelong steadied and pushed out to a 21-point half time lead. Richmond was bombing the ball long into the forward line where the likes of Stewart and Taylor were taking intercept marks. Gryan Miers bobbed up with a few goals and looked dangerous. After half time it was a completely different game. Richmond rediscovered its manic pressure game and forced Geelong into turnovers. Lynch kicked five in a best afield display and a 19-point win eventuated, putting Richmond into the grand final against GWS.
Richmond players training in preparation for Toby Greene
Recent History and Stats that matter:
Last 5 clashes:
Round 17, 2019
Richmond 13.16.94 defeated GWS 9.13.67
Round 3, 2019
GWS 19.11.125 defeated Richmond 10.16.76
Round 17, 2018
GWS 11.13.79 defeated Richmond 10.16.77
Preliminary Final, 2017
Richmond 15.13.103 defeated GWS 9.13.67
Round 18, 2017
Richmond 9.10.64 defeated GWS 6.9.45
We have had the upper hand on GWS winning 3 of the past 5 matches, including an important Preliminary final win over them in 2017. It is also interesting to note, that in recent clashes between us and the Giants, the away team has not won since 2014 when we defeated the Giants at Spotless.
Recent finals history:
Richmond
We finished top 4 in 2017 where we went on to smash Geelong by 51 points in the Qualifying Final. We then qualified for our first Grand Final in 35 years when we beat the Giants 36 points in the preliminary final. We won our first flag in 37 years by smashing Adelaide by 48 points in the 2017 AFL Grand Final.
In 2018, we showed no sign of premiership hangover finishing minor premiers in a strong flag defense. We qualified for yet another preliminary final with a 31 point win over Hawthorn. However, back to back was not to be as we fall short in the prelim, losing to Collingwood by 47 points.
After a slow start to the year, we are now in our second Grand Final in 3 years after strong wins against Brisbane and Geelong.
GWS
After finishing in 4th position, the Giants made their first finals series in 2016 where they defeated Sydney in the first qualifying final. They however, fell short in the preliminary final, going down by 6 points to the eventual premiers.
They made top 4 again in 2017. They played a rampaging Adelaide in the Qualifying Final and lost by 36 points. They bounced back in the Semi Final smashing the Eagles by 67 points. They then bowed out in yet another prelim, being defeated by the Tigers by 36 points.
In 2018, they finished 7th and faced off against their cross town rival, winning by 49 points. They were however, knocked out after losing to Collingwood by 10 points.
They now face us in their first Grand Final after strong wins against the Bulldogs, Brisbane and Collingwood,
Statistical highs and lows in 2019:
Richmond
Ranked 3rd in inside 50s per game
Ranked 3rd in goals assists per game
However we:
Ranked 18th in clearances per game
Ranked 15th in hitouts per game
GWS on the other hand:
Ranked 1st in clearances per game
Ranked 3rd in goal assists per game
Tom Lynch is still hungry for more Lunch!
Opposition Analysis:
GWS have were in the hunt all year for a top 4 spot, but their last month of football in the home and away season really hurt them with 2 hefty losses against Hawthorn and the Bulldogs.
However like we all know, finals football is a different beast and GWS have always had the talent on their list, they just needed a bit more mental application and mental strength to get over a few hurdles and they have done that in spades.
The Giants are lethal by foot. With players like Josh Kelly, Lachie Whitfield, Tim Tarranto, Toby Greene & Nick Haynes it is no wonder they rank number 1 in the competition for kicks. They have a great ability to make a seemingly risky kick inside look safe and that type of ball movement is what opens the ground right up for them and allows their runners to get into space for an easy inside 50 to their forwards.
We haven't heard the term 'Orange Tsunami' too much in recent times, but it is still very much the case. The speed at which they can transition the ball from defense to attack is very similar to ourselves so we must be right at the top of our pressure game to reduce the amount of impact that has on the game.
GWS have a forward line that can tear a game apart if let off the chain. It is a unique blend of speed, height and skill. Jeremy Cameron is elite and when he is on the lead he is hard to stop. Himmelberg while not setting the world on fire in finals so far, still provides a huge frame and if it clicks for him will be a handful. Toby Greene coming back into the side adds another dimension again. We have had a pretty good record on him in recent times which might play on his mind heading into the game.
Overall their forwards and midfield are known quantities and we have seen what they can do in this finals series and how dangerous they can be.
What is less of a known for GWS is how are their defenders going to cope playing against 2 genuine elite KPF's in Lynch and Riewoldt under immense finals pressure? They have played Bulldogs who have Naughton and Schache, Brisbane with Hipwood and McStay and Collingwood who used Ben Ried and Mihocek.
Those players are a lot easier to plan for if your GWS. Lynch and Riewoldt are a whole different beast. A lot harder to peel off 1 to impact the other. There is also some question marks over the fitness of Phil Davis too.
The Giants are also looking like Whitfield will come back after surgery 10 days ago, they might roll the dice on Coniglio (huge risk) and Davis might not be 100% but will no doubt play. We learnt the hard way not to play unfit players last year in the Prelim!
Where the game will be won or lost:
It's no secret that this game will be won or lost in the middle. GWS are a great clearance team and if let off the chain will feed their forwards with ease. Richmond are one of the best defensive units in the club as an entire group. Our ability to cover for one another and apply pressure across all different parts of the ground is critical. If we can force the GWS mids into kicks that they don't want to take it will allow our defenders to set up how we want behind the ball, intercept and re load.
Scoreboard pressure is going to be paramount. Both teams know they have the ability to generate a lot of inside 50's but if you don't convert it will be at your own peril.
Pressure pressure pressure. We know it is our 1 wood but we will need it to be at it's all time high on Saturday. Watching the GWS / Pies Prelim I don't think the pressure being applied by either team was at the level we would produce. Rioli, Castagna, Bolton, Lambert, Baker all need to get their hands dirty and be relentless in their pressure on the ball carrier. You just know that our guys will be setting themselves for this.
Ivan Soldo & Toby Nankervis have a vital role to play against Mumford!
Key Match ups
Riewoldt and Lynch vs. Davis and Tomlinson
There are 2 massive factors at play as Richmond’s forward giants go up against the Giants defensive giants. Phil Davis dislocated a finger in the warm up on Saturday, and then did a calf in the 1st quarter and a shoulder in the 2nd quarter, will he be right to play on Saturday? You would think even at 70 or 80% he will play but will that be enough to stop 5 goal hero Tom Lynch a player who you can tell lives for big games.
When the club wanted to rest Lynch for Anzac Eve his reply was “I came here to play in big games like this I’m playing” and as far as big games go you don’t get any bigger than the last Saturday in September. Tommy is primed to have a massive impact on the Grand Final especially if Davis doesn’t play or isn’t fully fit.
The x factor for Richmond is the old fox Jack Reiwoldt, Jack showed some of his footy smarts on Friday night with a masterful tap on to Dustin Martin leading to a goal but Jack was very average otherwise, I don’t think he will be kept quiet 2 games in a row but if GWS can shut him out again it will go a long way towards them winning
Martin vs. De Boer
What do you do with midfielders who aren’t good enough to be midfielders…? You turn them into taggers and Matt De Boer is among the best failed midfielders in the business he kept Dustin Martin to only 15 touches early in the season, but finals Dusty is a different beast. Dusty will need to pull all of his trick out of the bag on Saturday if Matty De Boer lines up next to him at the opening bounce and our other mids need to help whoever De Boer does tag. The question on Dimma is do you send Dusty forward and does De Boer follow him or does he switch onto a Dion Prestia.
Either way someone like Nank will be important here, make De Boer earn his tag and drive him into the ground at every opportunity. If I was Leon Cameron though I would back my mids to go head to head with Richmond and play De Boer as a hard tag on Bachar Houli break our run off half back and you break Richmond.
Grimes/Vlastuin vs. Greene
Who goes to Toby Greene will be one of the most interesting matchups come Saturday afternoon, do we back the best defender in the AFL or do we hand Nick Vlastuin a pair of safety goggles and tell him to get it done. Keeping Greene quiet much like Lynch at the other end will be one of the Keys to Richmond winning.
My opinion is that whoever out of Greene and Lynch kicks the most goals their team will win
Mumford vs. Soldo & Nankervis
Nose Beers Mumford will be out to kill someone in his last ever AFL game, he was destroyed in the middle by Grundy on Saturday but stepped up to probably save the game for GWS in the dying minutes on Saturday. That is where the 1 2 combo of Richmond will come to play, Soldo to dominate the taps and give us first use out of the middle and Nank as the big beast who can match it physically with Mumford.
Nank needs to be given a license to kill similar to Mumford and use every bit of his size to nullify the impact of Mumford and the hurt he can put on the Richmond midfielders
Brett Deledio vs. father time
Everyone knows the story of 2017, a faithful servant and life member of the Richmond football Club Brett Deledio departed in a fateful move which ultimately helped to lay the foundations of our drought breaking premiership. Lids famously couldn’t bring himself to watch in 2017 and you can’t help but feel for him this week as unless a miracle occurs he will be watching from the sidelines as either his old team wins a second flag since he left or his new team wins one without him.
Kamdyn McIntosh and Jack Ross were withdrawn from the VFL Grand Final, could they be inclusions? Or do we roll the dice with Pickett?
Possible Changes:
Jack Graham is without doubt the hero from our Prelim final vs Geelong. Dislocated his good shoulder in the first quarter, got it strapped and went back out and kept on playing despite it slipping out a few more times. He could hardly use his arm but still applied pressure and played a huge role.
Unfortunately I think he will miss Saturday, it is just too risky.
This opens the door for Jack Ross to come into the team.
Or do we take a huge punt and play Marlion Pickett after his best on ground effort in the VFL Grand Final?
Nathan Broad went off with concussion but looks like he will play. If he doesn't get up it is likely that McIntosh would replace him.
Conclusion:
This will be one heck of a tough game and we will need to play at our best to win.
But we shouldn't hold any fears. We have been there before, we trust our own process and worry about the things we can control.
The rest will take care of itself.
Tigers by 17 points
GRAND FINAL PODCAST LINK FOR ANYONE INTERESTED:
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