Teams 2019 My RDT Team: H&A

[toxic]

Pea Nut

My current fwd line

 

[Pea Nut]

Pea Nut

My current fwd line

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Impressive Toxic I like it.

 

[Bandicoot]

Following on from my recent comment about selecting guaranteed top 10 players rather than risking mid pricers or potential break out players, I have done a little bit more investigation.
Following are the top 10 midfielders of 2017 and it would have been so easy to pick any one of them thinking that he is a safe bet to be a keeper for 2018. I have shown their 2017 average then followed by their 2018 average, final midfield ranking and fluctuation.
1/ Mitchell 127.2 - 128.2 (1) +1.0
2/ Dangerfield 121.1 - 106.4 (11) -14.7
3/ Ablett 118.8 - 103.8 (14) -15.0
4/ Merrett 115.5 - 101.5 (21) -14.0
5/ Duncan 115.2 - 101.8 (19) -13.4
6/ Adams 114.5 - 95.1 (29) -19.4
7/ Zorko - 114.3 - 96.4 (23) -17.9
8/ Kelly - 113.9 - 108.4 (7) -5.5
9/ Gibbs - 112.1 - 103.8 (14) -8.3
10/ Martin - 111.4 - 92.9 (36) -18.5

So, of these top 10 who were all thought to be pretty safe selections at the start of the year, only 2 (Mitchell and Kelly) kept a top 10 average. One thing that I wanted to point out here is that even though Mitchell had a remarkable 2018 and he was the only player of the ten who actually increased his output, it was by a measly one point. So in reality, you only got what you originally paid for.
The major point here is that 9 of the 10 gave you a negative return on your initial investment - by a much as 19.4 points. On today's prices that is almost $200K.
Obviously, we all talk about cashcows generating enough money in order to upgrade to premiums but how much more difficult does this become when our initial chosen premiums are actually costing us money. I am far more confident that the likes of Sloane, Brouch or Martin will actually increase in value from their starting price. Based on history, I certainly can't say that about the likes of Macrae, Coniglio, Cripps etc.
So when people continue to say that choosing the likes of these players is risky, I would suggest that starting with a few uber costly midfielders represents even more risk.
Just like waiting till halfway through the year to find out who will be the top 2 ruckmen, it could be argued we should be using the same thought process with our mids.
Changing the search criteria to total points rather than season average proved to be very much the same.

 

[go you pups]

Pea Nut

My current fwd line

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I don't mind the Newnes pick, surely he goes back to an 80 something average and last year was just an aberration

Think he's a better bet than Worpel and Greene who's similarly priced

 

[go you pups]

Following on from my recent comment about selecting guaranteed top 10 players rather than risking mid pricers or potential break out players, I have done a little bit more investigation.
Following are the top 10 midfielders of 2017 and it would have been so easy to pick any one of them thinking that he is a safe bet to be a keeper for 2018. I have shown their 2017 average then followed by their 2018 average, final midfield ranking and fluctuation.
1/ Mitchell 127.2 - 128.2 (1) +1.0
2/ Dangerfield 121.1 - 106.4 (11) -14.7
3/ Ablett 118.8 - 103.8 (14) -15.0
4/ Merrett 115.5 - 101.5 (21) -14.0
5/ Duncan 115.2 - 101.8 (19) -13.4
6/ Adams 114.5 - 95.1 (29) -19.4
7/ Zorko - 114.3 - 96.4 (23) -17.9
8/ Kelly - 113.9 - 108.4 (7) -5.5
9/ Gibbs - 112.1 - 103.8 (14) -8.3
10/ Martin - 111.4 - 92.9 (36) -18.5

So, of these top 10 who were all thought to be pretty safe selections at the start of the year, only 2 (Mitchell and Kelly) kept a top 10 average. One thing that I wanted to point out here is that even though Mitchell had a remarkable 2018 and he was the only player of the ten who actually increased his output, it was by a measly one point. So in reality, you only got what you originally paid for.
The major point here is that 9 of the 10 gave you a negative return on your initial investment - by a much as 19.4 points. On today's prices that is almost $200K.
Obviously, we all talk about cashcows generating enough money in order to upgrade to premiums but how much more difficult does this become when our initial chosen premiums are actually costing us money. I am far more confident that the likes of Sloane, Brouch or Martin will actually increase in value from their starting price. Based on history, I certainly can't say that about the likes of Macrae, Coniglio, Cripps etc.
So when people continue to say that choosing the likes of these players is risky, I would suggest that starting with a few uber costly midfielders represents even more risk.
Just like waiting till halfway through the year to find out who will be the top 2 ruckmen, it could be argued we should be using the same thought process with our mids.
Changing the search criteria to total points rather than season average proved to be very much the same.

Good post

Agree with most of that and definitely on say Macrae, feel he will drop to 110 or so

I think Cogs for example has the game to average similarly to last year again though, he has a strong mark and tackle game, I feel only injury would hurt him

 

[toxic]

I don't mind the Newnes pick, surely he goes back to an 80 something average and last year was just an aberration

Think he's a better bet than Worpel and Greene who's similarly priced

Agreed and the Jack Steven and Hanners both being Mia early on hopefully helps

 

[go you pups]

Agreed and the Jack Steven and Hanners both being Mia early on hopefully helps

That's probably the main question there

If he gets plenty of minutes at wing/half back then he'll score well, but do those two coming back in push him back to a peripheral role?

 

[toxic]

That's probably the main question there

If he gets plenty of minutes at wing/half back then he'll score well, but do those two coming back in push him back to a peripheral role?

Happy to run the risk

 

[go you pups]

Happy to run the risk

If he averages 80 odd then he'll be good enough as season long coverage at F6-7/M9

 

[DaTBird187]

Agreed and the Jack Steven and Hanners both being Mia early on hopefully helps

That's why Jack Steele is an intriguing proposition.

 

[go you pups]

That's why Jack Steele is an intriguing proposition.

Big tackle numbers helps him score

But I wonder if he can find enough footy each week too?

I like Ross the most from St Kilda, just wondering if he can put it together all season, rather than come home like a steam train like the last two years

 

[Pea Nut]

Following on from my recent comment about selecting guaranteed top 10 players rather than risking mid pricers or potential break out players, I have done a little bit more investigation.
Following are the top 10 midfielders of 2017 and it would have been so easy to pick any one of them thinking that he is a safe bet to be a keeper for 2018. I have shown their 2017 average then followed by their 2018 average, final midfield ranking and fluctuation.
1/ Mitchell 127.2 - 128.2 (1) +1.0
2/ Dangerfield 121.1 - 106.4 (11) -14.7
3/ Ablett 118.8 - 103.8 (14) -15.0
4/ Merrett 115.5 - 101.5 (21) -14.0
5/ Duncan 115.2 - 101.8 (19) -13.4
6/ Adams 114.5 - 95.1 (29) -19.4
7/ Zorko - 114.3 - 96.4 (23) -17.9
8/ Kelly - 113.9 - 108.4 (7) -5.5
9/ Gibbs - 112.1 - 103.8 (14) -8.3
10/ Martin - 111.4 - 92.9 (36) -18.5

So, of these top 10 who were all thought to be pretty safe selections at the start of the year, only 2 (Mitchell and Kelly) kept a top 10 average. One thing that I wanted to point out here is that even though Mitchell had a remarkable 2018 and he was the only player of the ten who actually increased his output, it was by a measly one point. So in reality, you only got what you originally paid for.
The major point here is that 9 of the 10 gave you a negative return on your initial investment - by a much as 19.4 points. On today's prices that is almost $200K.
Obviously, we all talk about cashcows generating enough money in order to upgrade to premiums but how much more difficult does this become when our initial chosen premiums are actually costing us money. I am far more confident that the likes of Sloane, Brouch or Martin will actually increase in value from their starting price. Based on history, I certainly can't say that about the likes of Macrae, Coniglio, Cripps etc.
So when people continue to say that choosing the likes of these players is risky, I would suggest that starting with a few uber costly midfielders represents even more risk.
Just like waiting till halfway through the year to find out who will be the top 2 ruckmen, it could be argued we should be using the same thought process with our mids.
Changing the search criteria to total points rather than season average proved to be very much the same.

I started 4 of those last year, ditched Merrett after round 2, and kept Titch, Dusty and Gibbs all year. Potentially part of the reason why I did well. Dusty annoyed the shit out of me though and was M9 for the last 6 weeks. With your line of thinking though it seems like there is a fair bit of Fantasy type thinking creeping in. I would whole heartedly agree with you if we got unlimited trades, but we don't. You have to be prepared for your premos to lose some cash knowing that you have selected players that will be in the top echelon of players on that line. Otherwise you end up with a half assed side that needs another 6-10 trades to fix. Think back to last year and years gone past with how hard it is to get to the uber premos. You need 2 downgrades to then upgrade to them. With only 30 trades your starting side is super important to having a good year. And you need to have the uber premos in your side when the whips are cracking. Picking up discounted premos along the way off the back of an injury affected score or a couple of down weeks is what gives you a very strong side when you have very limited trades left late in the year. I'm not one to ever go full guns and rookies, but you absolutely need some balance to your side. Picking a heap of fallen premos and mid pricers is a one way road off a cliff.

 

[DaTBird187]

Big tackle numbers helps him score

But I wonder if he can find enough footy each week too?

Someone is going to have to. No Haneberry, no Steven. A little natural progression.

 

[go you pups]

Someone is going to have to. No Haneberry, no Steven. A little natural progression.

They'll play most of the season still

Feel he's an AFL Fantasy type of pick though

Reckon you might as well pick someone like Taranto then, Ward won't be back until late April/early May with his knee and GWS aren't letting on with Kelly, he has proven he can score well and find the footy

 

[Bandicoot]

I started 4 of those last year, ditched Merrett after round 2, and kept Titch, Dusty and Gibbs all year. Potentially part of the reason why I did well. Dusty annoyed the shit out of me though and was M9 for the last 6 weeks. With your line of thinking though it seems like there is a fair bit of Fantasy type thinking creeping in. I would whole heartedly agree with you if we got unlimited trades, but we don't. You have to be prepared for your premos to lose some cash knowing that you have selected players that will be in the top echelon of players on that line. Otherwise you end up with a half assed side that needs another 6-10 trades to fix. Think back to last year and years gone past with how hard it is to get to the uber premos. You need 2 downgrades to then upgrade to them. With only 30 trades your starting side is super important to having a good year. And you need to have the uber premos in your side when the whips are cracking. Picking up discounted premos along the way off the back of an injury affected score or a couple of down weeks is what gives you a very strong side when you have very limited trades left late in the year. I'm not one to ever go full guns and rookies, but you absolutely need some balance to your side. Picking a heap of fallen premos and mid pricers is a one way road off a cliff.

Don't disagree at all with what you say but the purpose of my post was to illustrate the error in my people's comments about some mid pricers vs premiums. "I think he's too risky. I'd rather go with the safe option of xxx who'll be a top 10 this year". I was trying to make the point that there is still risk in any selection and that assuming a player WILL be top 10 this year is just foolhardy.
In order to upgrade to a premium, you regularly require two downgrades and then a third trade to bring in the uber premium. With the aid of a few midpricers they become the stepping stones meaning you only need two trades to bring in the uber.
It wasn't my intention to suggest that we should all be filling our side with mid priced players (I only have 4 and two of those are just above rooky price) but moreso along the lines that there is no reason why a Sloane, Dusty or someone else priced $100K less than the ubers will not be top 10 this year.
Look at last year. Who would have thought that Macrae, Gaff, Cripps, Oliver, Treloar, Ross and Yeo would have filled those spots.

 

[go you pups]

I think at the end of the day, this is the backline and forwardline I'm most happy with

I can get Cousins in at M6 in this squad and still have pretty much all the relevant rookies. Libba and Cousins need to pump out say 150+ points a week between them to be viable starting squad options as other teams will be 5 midfield premiums deep so hypothetically if the majority of other teams nail their M5 premium and excluding Walsh who everyone will have likely at M6-7 it's basically for me Libba and Cousins vs premium and rookie, some teams will have a premium and Cousins at M5-6 also but they'll likely be weaker in another position or taking risks in other positions in order to get him in, so not too fussed with that scenario

If Grawndy is a bust and not the top 2 rucks for the year, then I'm going to find it hard to ever go set and forget in the rucks ever again. Cash cows/midpricers or ruck forwards who I can later swing forward only to start with.

If Zac Clarke looks to be a genuine option and is named next week then I can downgrade Gawn to Westhoff and go Bines to Clarke (might have to pick Atkins over a Scott/Hayes/Bewley here too to free up loose change, but not too fussed with that).

Hopefully one of Libba, Walsh or Cousins goes 85-90 and can be an eventual M9, if not then they'll be upgraded

Gotta sit on this til Wednesday teams/or until significant injury/rookie selection news comes out

 

[amos]

Hmmmm, Dusty battling mental illness demons. If there was one guy that has been in every single one of my 97 complete teams, it was Dusty. When this is publicised, players generally don't go up a gear.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

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I think at the end of the day, this is the backline and forwardline I'm most happy with

I can get Cousins in at M6 in this squad and still have pretty much all the relevant rookies. Libba and Cousins need to pump out say 150+ points a week between them to be viable starting squad options as other teams will be 5 midfield premiums deep so hypothetically if the majority of other teams nail their M5 premium and excluding Walsh who everyone will have likely at M6-7 it's basically for me Libba and Cousins vs premium and rookie, some teams will have a premium and Cousins at M5-6 also but they'll likely be weaker in another position or taking risks in other positions in order to get him in, so not too fussed with that scenario

If Grawndy is a bust and not the top 2 rucks for the year, then I'm going to find it hard to ever go set and forget in the rucks ever again. Cash cows/midpricers or ruck forwards who I can later swing forward only to start with.

If Zac Clarke looks to be a genuine option and is named next week then I can downgrade Gawn to Westhoff and go Bines to Clarke (might have to pick Atkins over a Scott/Hayes/Bewley here too to free up loose change, but not too fussed with that).

Hopefully one of Libba, Walsh or Cousins goes 85-90 and can be an eventual M9, if not then they'll be upgraded

Gotta sit on this til Wednesday teams/or until significant injury/rookie selection news comes out

I like it Pups.

I don't think Grundy and Gawn will let you down, they seem a clear cut above the rest. If i end up having the funds (unlikely) i would be taking Gawn instead of Goldy. Dunkley is a hard one to get a read on, being a Doggies supporter you'd know better than myself. However i think handcuffing him with Libba is a really good idea.

Really like the Boak and Sloane selections, hopefully they pay off and fall into that top bracket of players for their positions.

 

[Agechamp]

You guys who are picking the guys around the 600k Mark ie Crouch, Sloane, Rocky, dusty. You plan for these to be keepers or to upgrade?

Or does that just all depend on their scoring?

I'm just stuck in deciding if I go one of these or libba and use his for 100k cash generation to upgrade to someone who's a lock.

I also keep swapping out mcrouch for zerrett and back again. Crouch bloody handballs too much and zerrett burnt me last year.

 

[Atavistic]

You guys who are picking the guys around the 600k Mark ie Crouch, Sloane, Rocky, dusty. You plan for these to be keepers or to upgrade?

Or does that just all depend on their scoring?

I'm just stuck in deciding if I go one of these or libba and use his for 100k cash generation to upgrade to someone who's a lock.

I also keep swapping out mcrouch for zerrett and back again. Crouch bloody handballs too much and zerrett burnt me last year.

I only have Sloane in the 600-700k range. If he averages 105+ I will keep him all year. If he doesn't, maybe I'll trade him out, maybe not. Depends on other factors such as whether I need to use the trades to cover injuries or dropped players.

I had Rocky in for a little bit but then I traded him out because he ALWAYS gets injured.

 

[TealPastures]

I also keep swapping out mcrouch for zerrett and back again. Crouch bloody handballs too much and zerrett burnt me last year.

Yes, same here. Right now I'm leaning towards Merrett because he is unlikely to be tagged this year (neither is crouch) and he has the tackling game over MCrouch.. still might change my mind

 

[kaisasosai]

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I think at the end of the day, this is the backline and forwardline I'm most happy with

I can get Cousins in at M6 in this squad and still have pretty much all the relevant rookies. Libba and Cousins need to pump out say 150+ points a week between them to be viable starting squad options as other teams will be 5 midfield premiums deep so hypothetically if the majority of other teams nail their M5 premium and excluding Walsh who everyone will have likely at M6-7 it's basically for me Libba and Cousins vs premium and rookie, some teams will have a premium and Cousins at M5-6 also but they'll likely be weaker in another position or taking risks in other positions in order to get him in, so not too fussed with that scenario

If Grawndy is a bust and not the top 2 rucks for the year, then I'm going to find it hard to ever go set and forget in the rucks ever again. Cash cows/midpricers or ruck forwards who I can later swing forward only to start with.

If Zac Clarke looks to be a genuine option and is named next week then I can downgrade Gawn to Westhoff and go Bines to Clarke (might have to pick Atkins over a Scott/Hayes/Bewley here too to free up loose change, but not too fussed with that).

Hopefully one of Libba, Walsh or Cousins goes 85-90 and can be an eventual M9, if not then they'll be upgraded

Gotta sit on this til Wednesday teams/or until significant injury/rookie selection news comes out

Incredibly similar to my side. Main difference is that I have Kelly intead of Dunkley and I spent a bit extra to go with Cripps over Merrett. I think Cripps is at this point the scariest midfield physical specimen in the comp and will even destroy taggers.

 

[go you pups]

Incredibly similar to my side. Main difference is that I have Kelly intead of Dunkley and I spent a bit extra to go with Cripps over Merrett. I think Cripps is at this point the scariest midfield physical specimen in the comp and will even destroy taggers.

I like both Cripps and Oliver, but feel their heavy contested, high handball style is better suited to Supercoach, where I'm starting them both in

Feel they'll be 85-120 every week in DT though and not fluctuate in price much, they'll probably come down to high 600s/low 700s and I'll look at bringing them in then, same with Macrae, wait until he falls then look at getting him in

Feel the 4 I'm starting with have various amounts upside, particularly Sloane and Brayshaw.

 

[go you pups]

You guys who are picking the guys around the 600k Mark ie Crouch, Sloane, Rocky, dusty. You plan for these to be keepers or to upgrade?

Or does that just all depend on their scoring?

I'm just stuck in deciding if I go one of these or libba and use his for 100k cash generation to upgrade to someone who's a lock.

I also keep swapping out mcrouch for zerrett and back again. Crouch bloody handballs too much and zerrett burnt me last year.

Sloane should be good enough to be a keeper

M8-9 at worst

Dusty is in the same mould, you pick him to be a keeper

Brouch and Rocky all depends on injuries

 

[Bandicoot]

You guys who are picking the guys around the 600k Mark ie Crouch, Sloane, Rocky, dusty. You plan for these to be keepers or to upgrade?

Or does that just all depend on their scoring?

I'm just stuck in deciding if I go one of these or libba and use his for 100k cash generation to upgrade to someone who's a lock.

I also keep swapping out mcrouch for zerrett and back again. Crouch bloody handballs too much and zerrett burnt me last year.

I consider all of Merrett, Sloane, Brouch and Dusty to be potential keepers. As I stated in a previous post, none of the current top 10 midfielders are guaranteed to be the same again this year and history tells us most of them will be replaced by others at the end of the year.
I'm not saying they will, but they potentially can be.