2019 planning
- Thread starter samFFC
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- Oct 16, 2015
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TT + Crae
Or
Treloar + Duckwood
Or
Treloar + Duckwood
JDWCE
Norm Smith Medallist
His predictions aren't solely based on that if you're talking about FlowersByIrene analysis
You’re a little brainiac! Would love to be in a league with you to challenge you!
- Mar 20, 2007
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The weighting on the 2 JLT games is way too much.
JDWCE
Norm Smith Medallist
Fair, but I guess it's the most recent info to go off. Will be interesting to see how it pans out to start the season
JLT Scores are actually one of five different averages which are weighted and averaged.
Given the JLT scores have been 'normalised' - i.e calculated based on historical TOG, i am acctually pretty confident in them.
After all they're just projected averages taking into account historical figures.
- Mar 20, 2007
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As a means of validation, it would be interesting to test this model on 2017 and 2018 JLT data to see how it behaves. I just feel like its rare to see fantasy guns really turn up in the JLT.
Speaking of data models and that kind of thing, I created a weighted model to try and create a value index for each player (to try and compare guns and mid-pricers on the same scale). Looking at 4 weighted criteria (output, value, durability, consistency) it was telling me that the number 1 midfielder to consider this year was Dom Sheed.
Don't think I can start with Sheed, but the temptation is strong
JDWCE
Norm Smith Medallist
Here's hoping your data model is bang on as I'll be starting with him
If anyone wants to have a look at the detail that has gone into this, here is a snapshot above. If anyone thinks i should be doing something differently I'd love to hear it as i'm always interested in impoving my projections.
At the end of this year I am going to try out a few different weighted average formulas and see which one ended up as close as possible to the real thing to improve my calculations for next seaosn.
I supposed I could also do it historically but I don't really have the time.
- Oct 16, 2015
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Ok, TT or heeney to ave more?
Ross was big on the pre-seaosn projection, was set for a 110 avg, but poor JLT form led to that dropping to 101.
Kelly projected fir 108 based off last years stats alone and currently at 103 due to no JLT (which therefore assumes he goes at his previous season average of 103)
Zorko pre-season projected for 99 and now 94 after an average JLT
Worpel obviously will average more but i can't see him becoming a top 6 mid so in my mind he is effectively an overpriced rookie. And therefore you may as well go elliot for cheaper? But that's just my take on it.
First major change I've made in awhile...Ive downgraded Tim Taranto (660k) to Dom Sheed (539k) just so I can get a little more consistency and job security up front but upgrading Gryan Miers (170k bench) to Lincoln McCarthy. Results in just Setterfield and Drew being fielded as 'traditional' rookies as opposed to another 170k bloke.
Am I robbing Peter to pay Paul here?
Am I robbing Peter to pay Paul here?
JDWCE
Norm Smith Medallist
Personally think that's a good move considering the forwards rookies. Setters and Drew are probably the only rookies that I would want on the field there. Sheed has the potential to score at Taranto level so to me you're making your team better with this move - assuming Sheed performs. So I guess just like any midpricer there's risk in this. Still would rather risk it over someone like Parker in the forward line stinking it up
I've come full circle from October haha. My bigger concern is McCarthy but surely he scores more consistently and higher than rookies below him and there's no chance of me getting up to an Elliot or Worpel without major reshuffling. Job security might win out here
ossie_21
Premium Platinum
Can almost guarantee round 1 selections will have people juggling their team all over again haha. For what it's worth, I'd go with Witherden/Gawn/Newnes over Whitfield/Goldstein/Elliott
JDWCE
Norm Smith Medallist
Massive concern with McCarthy is where he will actually line up. Raynor and Cameron more likely to play that high half forward role which means McCarthy could play forward pocket in all likelihood. Still a far better prospect than all the forward rookies bar 2
Yeah well said. Might be the best of a bad bunchMassive concern with McCarthy is where he will actually line up. Raynor and Cameron more likely to play that high half forward role which means McCarthy could play forward pocket in all likelihood. Still a far better prospect than all the forward rookies bar 2
- Jan 8, 2018
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Whats his JS like? Will 2 bad games from Linc the Stink see him in the reserves?
Was brought over along with Neale as good mates - I assume they've been keen to play with each other. His team mates seem to love him (all got around him for his first goal in JLT). And the bloke tackles and provides plenty of pressure so I think he's at least good for the first 10 or so games
YippeeYiYeo
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jun 21, 2015
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How many onfield rookies does everyone have? At the moment I have 6.
