2019 planning

[Beau_Waters for PM]

I full heatedly agree with this. But this year, as PAFC said, it's so hard to get those 11-12 genuine keepers like in previous years. I also believe the value this year is so much better than in previous years. Going to be a very interesting season as to what strategy wins out

In my starting squad the following are pegged as keepers:

Lloyd, Newman, Z.Williams,
Macrae, Merrett, Steele, B.Crouch,
Grundy, Gawn,
Dangerfield, Kelly, Darling

Have also got B.Smith and Worpel who I expect to be a good chance of average high enough to warrant keeping.

I suppose if you go for a fallen premo/midpricer strategy then you've got a better shot at having a larger number of keepers... IF you can nail the crystal-balling that is the midprice madness!

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Brought him into my team the other day for the first time this pre-season and hasn't left. 87 and 103 in his two JLT matches from low TOG% in the low 80s, which is a boost from his low 70%'s last year. He's been pushing up the ground a lot more and Dimma noted that he'd play more in the midfield this year (especially with Conca leaving and Lynch coming in). His junior numbers were elite and people were already talking him up as a pig haha. Carlton round 1 will hopefully provide some immediate reward for the 2% of coaches with him!

Nice work. In my notes have pencilled him in for my 2020 side. But perhaps you're right and he goes big this year. We will know soon enough if his role is more midfield as you say, and I'll be definitely jumping aboard if that eventuates.

 

[DynamiteDons]

I’ll get around depending on when the draft is I suppose

I’m keen to be in a draft league

 

[Benjo_]

Nice work. In my notes have pencilled him in for my 2020 side. But perhaps you're right and he goes big this year. We will know soon enough if his role is more midfield as you say, and I'll be definitely jumping aboard if that eventuates.

I'm happy to take the punt, particularly in a forward line where I don't feel comfortable with fielding over 2 rookies and where there are still lots of question marks over the premium options.

 

[VSTone]

Brought him into my team the other day for the first time this pre-season and hasn't left. 87 and 103 in his two JLT matches from low TOG% in the low 80s, which is a boost from his low 70%'s last year. He's been pushing up the ground a lot more and Dimma noted that he'd play more in the midfield this year (especially with Conca leaving and Lynch coming in). His junior numbers were elite and people were already talking him up as a pig haha. Carlton round 1 will hopefully provide some immediate reward for the 2% of coaches with him!

I've found room for him in my team at the moment, swapped out Duursma to Markov to find the cash i needed to go Elliott > Higgins. Elliott becomes the fall back if he stinks it up.

 

[JDWCE]

In my starting squad the following are pegged as keepers:

Lloyd, Newman, Z.Williams,
Macrae, Merrett, Steele, B.Crouch,
Grundy, Gawn,
Dangerfield, Kelly, Darling

Have also got B.Smith and Worpel who I expect to be a good chance of average high enough to warrant keeping.

I suppose if you go for a fallen premo/midpricer strategy then you've got a better shot at having a larger number of keepers... IF you can nail the crystal-balling that is the midprice madness!

That makes sense. By the same logic, I end up with a similar amount of 'keepers'. I should have explained myself better in that by 'genuine keepers' I meant current premiums. Guys like Brouch I consider midpricers even though if he can get through a season he would definitely become a keeper

 

[Aussie_boy]

Only downside of my current team is there are 4 Port players in it. Had to make room for Gawn though the more I thought about it, too much uncertainty over Goldstein.

 

[Shadow89]

I'd probably throw in Bailey Scott and Scrimshaw as well if they both get games round 1. All you really need from your rooks is 60-65 and I can see all those mentioned doing that (although job security is an issue for some).

Only thing I would say is that just because there is a lack of rooks this year (potentially forcing us to go mid-priced) that doesn't then mean that the mid-pricers will do better than they have before. Historically mid-priced strategies generally seem to fall apart once the season starts and I'm worried this year will be no different.

In saying that pick the right mid-pricers and you're definitely onto a winner (just like any other season).

Thanks for the thorough response.

I agree, you make a lot of good points. I have a team style similar to yours.

What my concern is that the chances of 6-9 mid prices all performing as hoped is close to zero. So what is the plan/ contingency people are having for when there is a failed mid price?

As you said the scoring potential of rookies beyond 5-6 is quite low and the job security is quite volatile. So it’a an upgrade downgrade. You don’t want Parker Burgess Hore Gibbons on the field. If you don’t have enough cash/contingency upfront you’ll be stuck upgrading and downgrading to people you don’t want and you’ll be spinning wheels in the ranking while people move ahead.

I’ve currently got a remaining salary of just over $250k. Which is more than I’d traditionally have had.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

See I think what a lot of people get caught up on, is what a definition of a 'mid-pricer' really is. For me, players like Higgins, Andy Brayshaw, Papley, Hanley, McGrath, Mills, Parfitt, Worpel etc. are your typical mid pricer.

Then it comes down to what your definition of a 'fallen premo' is. For me that's when a player historically has scored at 90 or above - so Libba and Brouch fall into this category.

The real part where I see a lot of people get unstuck, is what they classify as a 'rookie.' For me, I think if you've played less than 10 games in a season and your average is around 50 or so, then you can classify that as a 'high end rook' in the same vein with those players from the first round over 250K. Going by this, I see Ridley, Clark, Setterfield, Walsh and Drew all as my rooks, albeit at different ends of the price scale. I think the cut off is somewhere around the mark Cousins is at this year, maybe slightly less at 320K. Even though McCarthy has been in the system for a fair bit, he's still only 35K dearer than Walsh, and has impeccable job security. Even though they are mid-pricers in a sense that they're established, their price point still places them in that rookie zone. Phillips is one who is a mid-pricer, but he has a specific purpose in that he'll be gone after 2 rounds, in order to get to another player. So he's not speculative in the sense that I know what his role is and I honestly just need him to play, and that's it.

The last one is, who do you pick to be the breakout players this year. For me, Sheed, Smith & Williams will all outscore their averages, with there being very little downside in choosing them, but plenty of upside.

To illustrate how I've come to every player in my team on field (I have half an hour while my dinner's cooking haha), here's a brief overview:


DEFENCE:

(Keeper) Lachie Whitfield (Premo) - Has a high ceiling and is still a reliable scorer for a defender, in that he plays a lot of wing/mid time. Toss up between him and Lloyd, with the nod slightly going to Whit

(Keeper) Jack Crisp (Premo) - Has a decent ceiling and Collingwood's new game style with plenty of marks gave him the nod over Witherden

(Trade) Brodie Smith - (Midpricer) - Cheap as it gets and guaranteed to go up in price. Will take all kick-ins according to the Crows, which will boost his numbers too

(Trade) Zac Williams (Midpricer) - Same as above, minus the kick-ins (although he could take a few)

(Trade) Jordan Ridley (High end Rookie) - Bombers board seem to think that he slots into Goddard's old role, and looks to take a lot of marks/has decent disposal

(Trade) Scrimshaw/Clark/Duursma (Expensive Rookie) - All seem to have a good shot at it, with Clark seeming to have the best job security (preference will be decided when Archie Smith has been revealed as playing or not)


MIDFIELD:

(Keeper) Adam Treloar (Premo) - Same as above with Jack Crisp, and comments surrounding his permanent mid time and extra possessions due to his explosive running, mean that Pendles has labelled him as the 'midfield general.' Hard to ignore those comments and that score

(Keeper) Angus Brayshaw (Premo) - Had him all pre-season and JLT has done nothing to dispel that confidence. Has all the attributes of a fantasy beast, and is just so good to watch

(Keeper) Tim Taranto (Breakout Premo) - Anyone that saw him during pre-season and heard all the comments from coaches about his 'substantial increase in midfield time', knows that this is his year. A 140 during JLT and a huge pre-season game against the Swans, showed that he could be the 'Clayton Oliver' of 2019

(Keeper) Tom Rockliff (Fallen Premo) - The pig in all his glory. Was considered on and off all pre-season, and believe it or not it was not his score that actually sucked me in. A 178 is no easy feat, but what most convinced me, was his tank and his willingness to just cover as much ground as possible to rack up disposals at will. Couple that with shedding a few kgs, a full pre-season and his phone call with Roy where he made pig sounds when he answered (showing that he knew he was back), and I couldn't ignore him any longer

(Trade) Brad Crouch (Fallen Premo) - Another one alongside Brayshaw who I've had in since fantasy opened. Has historically put out similar numbers to his brother, and is 337K cheaper. Priced at 72 and can go 105+, no brainer IMO. Comes with an injury risk, but all reports are that he's had a good pre-season and is looking primed for a big year. JLT scores of 114 and 118 don't hurt either

(Trade) Dom Sheed (Midpricer/Breakout Premo) - The one I'm the least sure on, but the most excited about. Tracked his progress through pre-season and saw him absolutely dominate against us in JLT 1. Did this with Shuey lighting it up in the first half and Gaff also playing. Was concerned that they might take his scores away, but did not affect him in the least. Only has to go 74 to justify picking him, and he should at least be capable of 85-90 on the low end, and 95-100 on the high end. Will make a lot of cash if it works out

(Trade) Tom Liberatore (Fallen Premo/Stepping stone) - That's right, a fallen premo, not a midpricer. Guy has gone over 90 and close to 100 twice in his career, and is in a contract year. That last part is why I'm picking him, because he needs to have a pretty good year, in order to get another contract. Priced like a mid-pricer at the low end, but can score as well as any premo. Will score low in some games, but will balance that out with some 90-100+ scores due to his high tackle numbers and high mid time. Hard to ignore

(Trade) Sam Walsh (High end Rookie) - Don't even need to explain this one. Everyone should have this kid in their team. He's a gun, and will be the last rook traded out, without a doubt


RUCK:

(Keeper) Max Gawn (Premo) - Was sitting as Brodie Grundy before JLT, but the shocking performance from Preuss and his injury/projected time in the VFL to work on his craft, means that Gawn is a solid choice and should score well again. Grundy's interrupted pre-season due to his toe injury being the main issue that forced him out, not his JLT scores

(Trade) Andrew Phillips (Low end Midpricer/Stepping Stone) - Was Kreuzer before he was all but ruled out for Round 1, but will still be used in the same fashion in order to get to Mumford, who is more than 25 points under-priced. Will be used as a long-term plan to secure the highest scoring ruck (likely to be Grundy), at his lowest price point, for minimal amount spent


FORWARD:

(Keeper) Patrick Dangerfield (Premo) - It's Danger, and he's a forward, no explanation needed. Every good team will have him

(Keeper) Travis Boak (Premo) - Confirmed full time role in the midfield by the club and his outing in both JLT's, more than enough to secure him in my side. Not much explanation needed

(Keeper) Tim Kelly (Breakout Premo) - Was Heeney/Parfitt before I was advised that Hutchings actually tagged him in JLT 1, which is why his scoring was so poor. Came out swinging with a 108 in his second JLT match, with the most centre bounce attendances in the team. Went 97 in the second half of last year, as opposed to his 83 in the first half

(Trade) James Worpel (Midpricer) - Second most speculative pick, but balanced by the fact that a lot of people will have him and there is a gaping hole in the Hawthorn midfield. Toss up between him and Newnes with his new full midfield role, but chosen as a defensive play, in order to mitigate the fallout if he doesn't score as projected

(Trade) Will Setterfield (High end Rookie) - Simply the only decent rook in the forward line, who you know has good midfield time and can score well. A gift from the fantasy gods rookie wise

(Trade) Willem Drew (Basement Rookie) - Touted midfield time and has been in the system a few years. Looks a decent pick and should play a fair few games. Only basement rook or thereabouts who actually may get midfield time, as the rest are stay at home forward or KPP's

**********************

So going off the above, I have the following:

7 Premos
2 Fallen Premos
2 Breakout Premos
1 Fallen Premo/Stepping stone (which a lot of teams also have which mitigates risk)
1 Midpricer/Breakout Premo (speculative)
3 Genuine Midpricers (but most teams should have them which mitigates the risk)
1 Low end Midpricer/Stepping Stone (but only for 2 rounds)
3 High end Rookies
1 Expensive Rookie
1 Basement Rookie

10 Keepers, possibly 11 if someone like Sheed, Brouch, Williams or Smith has a big year (more unlikely than likely)

If you take the above and simplify it, then it means I have the following:

12/13 Premos
4/5 Midpricers
5 Rookies

That's pretty much how I see it. Sheed and Worpel are the only one's that concern me, and both of them have some pretty big upside. Everyone else has a purpose and I don't see as a 'risky' midpricer due to what their role in my team is.

Anyway, food for thought for anyone looking at reasoning for certain strategies

 

[Cotchy9]

Seem Josh Dunkley’s JLT 1 has really scared a lot of people off, down to just 14% ownership now. He looked awesome in HLT 2 and still see him as a safe top 6 forward, could push 105 imo. Thoughts on Dunkley?

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

Well well well...nice to have confirmation. I am very happy about this, as it means that Phillips is a nice sneaky one. If he goes 70, I'll take that and bring in Mummy in Round 3. B-E-A-utiful

Btw I'm one who likes to screw around with my R2, as there's always such good value there. My plan this year is to go with one ruckman for 2 rounds and then bring in Mummy, and then cruise with him until I need to upgrade him. Not all people like this risk, as 'set and forget' makes it a lot easier to focus on the rest of your team, which I completely get. This, however, is exactly what I've been hoping would happen. It fits perfectly into my Mumford plan, so thank you footy gods!

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/ca...d/news-story/d9410f0fe1984bb094ba042c70369cce

I like the risk in theory, and I may do similar, the concern is you get injuries; and last year I got them just about every week and it leaves you unable to stick to the plan

 

[VSTone]

Seem Josh Dunkley’s JLT 1 has really scared a lot of people off, down to just 14% ownership now. He looked awesome in HLT 2 and still see him as a safe top 6 forward, could push 105 imo. Thoughts on Dunkley?

the Libba effect has me holding back on any of the other doggies, it's a wait and see what Bevo does with them for me.

 

[VSTone]

I like the risk in theory, and I may do similar, the concern is you get injuries; and last year I got them just about every week and it leaves you unable to stick to the plan

f'kin injuries... vent fest for my team last year!

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Seem Josh Dunkley’s JLT 1 has really scared a lot of people off, down to just 14% ownership now. He looked awesome in HLT 2 and still see him as a safe top 6 forward, could push 105 imo. Thoughts on Dunkley?

Too much uncertainty around how all Dunks, McLean, etc. all fit into the midfield this year means they are a watch and see for mine. Plus Libba seems to be back into an onball roll.

 

[4tune8]

Think I've settled on this, thoughts??


Lloyd Whitfield Smith
Williams Clark Scrimshaw

Mcrae Brayshaw Rocky Sheed
Crouch Libba Walsh Scott/rookie

Grundy Gawn

Dangerfield Dunkley Worpel
Higgins Setterfield Drew

Worpel at F3 and Higgins at F4 is something that I've toyed with for quite a bit, but gut feel is that it's too much of a risk. I had a very similar structure/team (scarily similar) but downgraded Lloyd to Ridley and Macrae to Treloar to upgrade Higgins to Boak and Worpel to Walters, feels like a better balanced side, I'm not set with this either, I do like Worpel or Higgins and will probably go back to one of them.

 

[Aussie_boy]

Seem Josh Dunkley’s JLT 1 has really scared a lot of people off, down to just 14% ownership now. He looked awesome in HLT 2 and still see him as a safe top 6 forward, could push 105 imo. Thoughts on Dunkley?

He's a gun but it's so easy to just downgrade him to someone like Boak and Heeney and pocket the 60k. Would love to start with him but it's a wait and see for me (at this stage, chances are he'll be in and out of my team until Thursday).

 

[JDWCE]

Thoughts on Tom Lynch (Ade) anyone? Think new rules could suit his playing style to a tee. Loves to roam and marks well and gets to space like no others. Adelaide's fixtures are basically the easiest in the comp too. VSTone

 

[Cotchy9]

He's a gun but it's so easy to just downgrade him to someone like Boak and Heeney and pocket the 60k. Would love to start with him but it's a wait and see for me (at this stage, chances are he'll be in and out of my team until Thursday).

I do recognise there’s some risk there, but I guess these are the risks you have to take to get a high ranking. If he plays half Forward and only gets small stints on ball I still think he’s good enough to average 90, and if he’s in there a lot 100-105 beckons

 

[bl4ke]

Thoughts on Tom Lynch (Ade) anyone? Think new rules could suit his playing style to a tee. Loves to roam and marks well and gets to space like no others. Adelaide's fixtures are basically the easiest in the comp too. VSTone

Been in and out for me this season. Good role, good price

 

[JDWCE]

Info for those who have Ridley. This definitely puts a spanner in my plans.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/injury-list

Latest injury report now has Gleeson and Redman changed from TBC to 1 week. He will start the season come rnd 1 and they'll probably spend a few weeks in the VFL to begin with. Could very much be knocking on the door for his spot after that though which is a huge concern

 

[JDWCE]

Been in and out for me this season. Good role, good price

Hasn't been that cheap in quite some time

 

[bl4ke]

Hasn't been that cheap in quite some time

I'd have no hesitation picking him at f4. But i can't pull myself away from danger, boak, Kelly f1-3

 

[TheRednWhite]

Anyone know Boak's ownership % ? Haven't figured out how to check ownership on the site, can it only be seen by fantasy coach subscribers? Anyway, the Traders don't seem to rate Boak at all based on their latest podcast, hopefully that will help keep his ownership down.

 

[Rion]

So going off the above, I have the following:

7 Premos
2 Fallen Premos
2 Breakout Premos
1 Fallen Premo/Stepping stone (which a lot of teams also have which mitigates risk)
1 Midpricer/Breakout Premo (speculative)
3 Genuine Midpricers (but most teams should have them which mitigates the risk)
1 Low end Midpricer/Stepping Stone (but only for 2 rounds)
3 High end Rookies
1 Expensive Rookie
1 Basement Rookie

Hmm bit to digest there haha. I mean I don't mind it and I've had most of those players in and out all pre-season. I just personally like going into round 1 a bit more defensive and then going from there. Get a few mid-pricers wrong (because no one will pick em all perfectly) and/or a few injuries and you're already basically playing from behind.

Anyway different strategies is what makes Fantasy fun right.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

Info for those who have Ridley. This definitely puts a spanner in my plans.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/injury-list

Latest injury report now has Gleeson and Redman changed from TBC to 1 week. He will start the season come rnd 1 and they'll probably spend a few weeks in the VFL to begin with. Could very much be knocking on the door for his spot after that though which is a huge concern

I was very keen on Redman this season

 

[bl4ke]

Anyone know Boak's ownership % ? Haven't figured out how to check ownership on the site, can it only be seen by fantasy coach subscribers? Anyway, the Traders don't seem to rate Boak at all based on their latest podcast, hopefully that will help keep his ownership down.

2.73