2019 planning

[TedDougChris]

Gawn this year though. Fingers crossed they do because we need another reason to watch Carlton games. The list is currently short

Laughter ???

Ummmmmm. That’s all I have got....

 

[samFFC]

I'll say it now so I don't forget.
Avoid the second year blues.

2016 Draft - average 2017 - average 2018
McGrath - 70.5 - 72.5
Taranto - 61.4 - 89.1
McCluggage - 61.2 - 75.9
Ainsworth GC - 59.4 - 60.9
Setterfield - injuries
SPS - 67.9 - 70.0
Scrimshaw - injuries and not picked
Logue - injuries
Brodie - injuries and not picked
Bowes - 49.9 - 56.0
Florent - 39.9 - 62.5
Simpkin - 49 - 59.8
Venables - injuries
Perryman - 55.2 - 51.0
Gallucci selections then 49.7
Marshall - selections - 46.6
Berry - 60.1 - 73.2
SPP - 69.9 - 82.5
English - selection - 67.6
Cumming - selection

People of note outside top 20:
Ridley - dropped
Witherden - 88.4 - 87.3
Parfitt - 56.1 - 77.3
Battle - good but injured
Stewart - 60.3 - 84.6
Graham - selections - 64.2
Phillips - selections/injuries but 75.2
Narkle - recent debut
Clarke - dropped
Waterman - selections - 55.6


Basically apart from Taranto, Witherden and Stewart, none of the top 20, or outside the top 20 have really done much this year to warrant a selection as a premium, or underpriced premium. My point is that starting with these sorts of players, and paying mid-pricer price means you won't get premium scores, and they won't move much in price, for the most part.

The top 10 will probably be too expensive to consider, but people like Fogarty, Richards, Higgins, Ryan, Spargo, Langdon, Barry, Guelfi - who will be that sort of mid-price range - stay away!

 

[Aussie_boy]

Angus Brayshaw is one I'd consider even if he was purely mid.

 

[samFFC]

Angus Brayshaw is one I'd consider even if he was purely mid.

Yup!
This year has shown good scoring teams are worth loading up on. Eg Collingwood, Melbourne, Port. Including underpriced premo types.

And teams like GC and Richmond not worth it, even for premos.

 

[Aussie_boy]

Yup!
This year has shown good scoring teams are worth loading up on. Eg Collingwood, Melbourne, Port. Including underpriced premo types.

And teams like GC and Richmond not worth it, even for premos.

The 2 Collingwood blokes I've gotten recently have absolutely destroyed any hope of me getting a hat (Phillips and Crisp). Apart from that I agree, normally I'm hesitant to have too many from a team but there's no real reason behind it.

As for other things I want to learn from:
-Wingers are frustrating... Phillips and Hunter I'm looking at you. The +6's are nice but give me someone in the contest any day for more consistent scores and more tackles
-Backing my gut- for instance when Brayshaw was dirt cheap I liked the look of him but didn't get him til last week. Same with Zorko when he was 550k or something ridiculous.
-Grundy is a necessity
-Don't overpay for players. E.g. Curnow but even to start the season Zac Merrett was bloody expensive in hindsight and look how that turned out. Thankfully his form turned good eventually.

 

[Joao]

Angus Brayshaw is one I'd consider even if he was purely mid.

Yeah I agree. The concussion stuff is a worry but other than that he looks like a 110+ player to me.

 

[_Cayz_]

There is a kid in the under 18s playing for South Australia. Izak Rankine. Watch where he goes in the draft could be a goer.

 

[Lawbreakers]

There is a kid in the under 18s playing for South Australia. Izak Rankine. Watch where he goes in the draft could be a goer.

He is being talked about as a potential Number 1 pick. Will be an expensive selection for a rookie, however could be worth it if this year is anything to go by. Stephenson, Brayshaw, Naughton, Dow to an extent have all been good cash cows,

 

[Coasters7]

Going to be a sad year without guys like Yeo, Bray, Mclean, maybe Rocky too, not having that DPP. Was fun this year just being able to fit all those guys in the same teams.

Won’t be many proven guns in the backline either, was already pretty thin this year. With everyone turning into full time mids it would be nice to have a bit more leniency for DPP or somehow get the genuine key forwards and defenders a bit more involved. Goal assists and direct prevention of scores maybe? (Dreaming I know). Just seems to be to much of a midfielders game which is fine until every player gets put there exclusively. Just not many consistent scorers that aren’t mids.

 

[Lawbreakers]

Going to be a sad year without guys like Yeo, Bray, Mclean, maybe Rocky too, not having that DPP. Was fun this year just being able to fit all those guys in the same teams.

Won’t be many proven guns in the backline either, was already pretty thin this year. With everyone turning into full time mids it would be nice to have a bit more leniency for DPP or somehow get the genuine key forwards and defenders a bit more involved. Goal assists and direct prevention of scores maybe? (Dreaming I know). Just seems to be to much of a midfielders game which is fine until every player gets put there exclusively. Just not many consistent scorers that aren’t mids.

I think those that have gained DPP status this year and especially in the next round of DPP's, adding FWD or DEF, will likely keep it for next year. Guys like Rocky, Whitfield, and even Goodard are examples.

 

[bl4ke]

Say Redman misses the rest of the season, how much is he next year?

 

[rimb]

Say Redman misses the rest of the season, how much is he next year?

81.5 x 7,000 - 24% = $434k

?

 

[Aussie_boy]

81.5 x 7,000 - 24% = $434k

?

Bloody hope you're wrong. I'd get him even at say 300k but 434 is a bit much for someone who's played like 4 games.

 

[Corby_4]

Bloody hope you're wrong. I'd get him even at say 300k but 434 is a bit much for someone who's played like 4 games.

He's only played 2 games so I'd hope they wouldn't even consider over 300k, let alone 434k.

 

[rimb]

He's only played 2 games so I'd hope they wouldn't even consider over 300k, let alone 434k.

The discount for playing only 2 games is 30% - 2 x 3% = 24% as far as I know.

 

[bl4ke]

He's only played 2 games so I'd hope they wouldn't even consider over 300k, let alone 434k.

I'll strongly consider him if under 300k. He looked the goods

 

[Corby_4]

The discount for playing only 2 games is 30% - 2 x 3% = 24% as far as I know.

Not sure on the formula so I'll take your word for it.

 

[The Joker]

Definitely a bit early on this, with 7 rounds left in this season.
But we know that late season form over last 6-8 weeks plus finals can be a good guide to help identify next year’s value (good or bad) picks.

So this thread is for ideas, food for thought, head to head comparisons, predictions etc.

All contributions welcome!

WTF, it's about 10 weeks late IMO

 

[Reardo]

I’ve decided not to drink next fantasy season.

 

[Lawbreakers]

81.5 x 7,000 - 24% = $434k

?

That doesnt seem right. The formula would need to include the players end of season price.

I've read on other wedsites that they following formula needs to be applied to determine the new price.
(old price x 75%) + (2019's Magic Number x (Avg - Discount if applicable) x 25%)

Remeber that magic number will change each year. While this years was 7055, next could be alot more depending on the salary increase.

Using Redman as and example:
(261000 x .75) + (7055 x (81.5 - 24%) x .25)
= $311,000 after rounding up.

I'll use Sam Docherty as another example, since he has missed an entire season and will receive a 30% discount.
(823000 x .75) + (7055 x (116.8 - 30%) x .25)
=$762,000

Rory Sloane
(593000 x .75) + (7055 x (87 - 9%) x .25)
=$584,000

I may be completely wrong with my formula, however it seems to make sense with the end price. A $171k price increase for a rookie that only played 2 games just didnt make sense.

 

[Jason Derulo]

There is a kid in the under 18s playing for South Australia. Izak Rankine. Watch where he goes in the draft could be a goer.

I know him through friends (graduated the same year as him) and the kid is the real deal from what I've heard. Future gun.

 

[rimb]

That doesnt seem right. The formula would need to include the players end of season price.

I've read on other wedsites that they following formula needs to be applied to determine the new price.
(old price x 75%) + (2019's Magic Number x (Avg - Discount if applicable) x 25%)

Remeber that magic number will change each year. While this years was 7055, next could be alot more depending on the salary increase.

Using Redman as and example:
(261000 x .75) + (7055 x (81.5 - 24%) x .25)
= $311,000 after rounding up.

I'll use Sam Docherty as another example, since he has missed an entire season and will receive a 30% discount.
(823000 x .75) + (7055 x (116.8 - 30%) x .25)
=$762,000

Rory Sloane
(593000 x .75) + (7055 x (87 - 9%) x .25)
=$584,000

I may be completely wrong with my formula, however it seems to make sense with the end price. A $171k price increase for a rookie that only played 2 games just didnt make sense.

You may be right, but remember what happened to Fiorini a couple of years ago - after 2 games he was priced at ~$550k the next season!

 

[Corby_4]

You may be right, but remember what happened to Fiorini a couple of years ago - after 2 games he was priced at ~$550k the next season!

Now that was a joke.
Some nuffies fell for it and actually picked him up.

 

[rimb]

Now that was a joke.
Some nuffies fell for it and actually picked him up.

It's ridiculous that they adjust up the prices of "proven performers" when they have an injured season but don't adjust down the prices for rookies who only play a few games in their first season.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Does AFL fantasy run a end of year survey?

One thing I'd love them to implement would be a Trade Simulator option.

The platform already guesstimate players scores and their price increases so it should be simple to go to a trade simulator section and have a play around with trades in advance.

I.e if I trade x to y this week. I can trade a to b next week if both hit their breakevens.. then in Round ? my team will look like this...

Would be handy and I would spend hours trading to see what my team could look like at finals etc