- Oct 4, 2016
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Cummings isnt a rookie you should play on your field. Duursma is better and should have decent job security.
2019 planning
- Thread starter samFFC
- Start date
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People sound like they're starting to crack...
...
Like an egg on the back of Fraser Anning's head...
I think its now where people are going to have to go back to picking guys with better job security but may score lower i.e. Collins rather than chase 170K rookies that may score big but get dropped 2 weeks later
Wait til TEAMS where we all contemplate squeezing Z.Clarke & A.Smith in for unusual cash gen from the ruck bench.
I originally had DEF bench of Scrimshaw & Ben McKay ($193k North Melbourne) so the latter is another cheap option,
ended up with Burgess & Hore though.
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- Apr 29, 2016
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What are everyone's thoughts on Zac Butters. A lot of people seem scared off that he is going to play deep forward but I'm sure he is going to spend plenty of time in the middle as well just like in jlt1.
For rookie mids I had him (Butters) third in line behind Walsh & Scott (Bailey Scott just getting the nod over Butters as he's cheaper)
No room for them all unfortunately.
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- Jan 8, 2018
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All the planning ive done and I know ill have made all the wrong decisions, Im very nervous!
I will post my final statistical projections based on the information we have to date. The data used to pump out these projections take into account 2018 Averages, 2017 Averages, a variety of 2018 sub-set averages such as 1st Half, 2nd Half, Last 5 and Outlier, 2019 JLT Form "normalised" for historical time on ground statistics as well as AFL Fantasy "Elite" projections for the first three rounds (which includes factors such as historical averages against teams and at certain grounds) - all given different weighting based on personal preference (i.e weighting recent performance higher than past performance) etc.
The utility in doing so is so that this may be used as a public comparison point where I can come back and we can debate the value of this type of analysis with reference to how the players - actually - did. But anyway, on to my top players
Defence: Rory Larid (107) Jake Lloyd (106) Jack Crisp (104) Lachie Whitfield (99) James Sicily (94) Heath Shaw (94) - Zac Williams (92) Shannon Hurn (90) Brodie Smith (90)
Midfield: Angus Brayshaw (121) Stephen Coniglio (121) Jack Macrae (117) Adam Treloar (112) Clayton Oliver (112) Matt Crouch (110) Steel Sidebottom (109) Dayne Beams (108) - Patrick Cripps (107) Bryce Gibs (107) Elliot Yeo (106) Joel Selwood (106)
Ruck: Brodie Grundy (110) Max Gawn (106) - Stef Martin (104) Todd Goldstein (101)
Forward: Patrick Dangerfield (113) Sam Menegola (102) Josh Dunkley (100) Justin Westhoff (96) Travis Boak (95) Isaac Heeney (94) - Devon Smith (94) Jack Billings (92) Mitch Robinson (90)
I will note that the above analysis is NOT GOOD at projecting breakouts. The weighted averages I have used are weighted conservatiely to attempt to get the most uniform results for consistency sake (i.e picking a solid premium who should be top tier). it is almos timpossible to use statistics to project a breakout.
For example, look at Dom Sheed. You would think when picking a breakout player that you would probably exclusively look to the second half, last 5 and JLT scores. On that metric, someone like a Dom Sheed would project for roughly a 96.3 average. However, using my total weighted average analysis, he is still projected for a 94.85 average, meaning even ignoring other statistical inputs like his past two season averages (74 and 78) he barely gets a bump in his projection.
Another example is James Worpel - to take his "break out stats" he would be project to average 83.6. That's slightly higher than the 77.57 average projected by the overall analysis but not astrononmically higher.
Effectively, when picking breakout players, it is a lot more about gut.
The utility in doing so is so that this may be used as a public comparison point where I can come back and we can debate the value of this type of analysis with reference to how the players - actually - did. But anyway, on to my top players
Defence: Rory Larid (107) Jake Lloyd (106) Jack Crisp (104) Lachie Whitfield (99) James Sicily (94) Heath Shaw (94) - Zac Williams (92) Shannon Hurn (90) Brodie Smith (90)
Midfield: Angus Brayshaw (121) Stephen Coniglio (121) Jack Macrae (117) Adam Treloar (112) Clayton Oliver (112) Matt Crouch (110) Steel Sidebottom (109) Dayne Beams (108) - Patrick Cripps (107) Bryce Gibs (107) Elliot Yeo (106) Joel Selwood (106)
Ruck: Brodie Grundy (110) Max Gawn (106) - Stef Martin (104) Todd Goldstein (101)
Forward: Patrick Dangerfield (113) Sam Menegola (102) Josh Dunkley (100) Justin Westhoff (96) Travis Boak (95) Isaac Heeney (94) - Devon Smith (94) Jack Billings (92) Mitch Robinson (90)
I will note that the above analysis is NOT GOOD at projecting breakouts. The weighted averages I have used are weighted conservatiely to attempt to get the most uniform results for consistency sake (i.e picking a solid premium who should be top tier). it is almos timpossible to use statistics to project a breakout.
For example, look at Dom Sheed. You would think when picking a breakout player that you would probably exclusively look to the second half, last 5 and JLT scores. On that metric, someone like a Dom Sheed would project for roughly a 96.3 average. However, using my total weighted average analysis, he is still projected for a 94.85 average, meaning even ignoring other statistical inputs like his past two season averages (74 and 78) he barely gets a bump in his projection.
Another example is James Worpel - to take his "break out stats" he would be project to average 83.6. That's slightly higher than the 77.57 average projected by the overall analysis but not astrononmically higher.
Effectively, when picking breakout players, it is a lot more about gut.
I've had Worpel for a while and starting to cool on him recently. Yes he'll get plenty of mid time but I wonder if there'll be a lot of difference between him and Setterfield who's 230k cheaper
Forcing myself to not touch my team until the teams come out on Thursday. Have made this mistake too make times at this point in the year!
bl4ke
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- Nov 17, 2014
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I would if Archie is named
have a little tinker...you know you want to!
Brodie Smith will average 90
- May 20, 2017
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Definitely this. Teams will help make the final tweaks and anything before then just causes anxiety.
My strategy is generally not to pick many Blues/Tigers players as they get locked in after Thursday and reduce my flexibility for 'tweaks' after the rest of the teams are announced.
At this stage I'll only be certain of taking Setterfield/Walsh and to a lesser extent Gibbons into the Thursday game so I still have some flexbility my final structure on Friday afternoon.
I'll may give Balta a miss (even if he's named) as I'll probably come to rue locking in that bench spot up forward.
I also need to make sure I don't fall for cheaper mid-pricers who post a tonne in round 1. I'm ashamed to say I saw quick dollar signs in Aaron Young after his tonne in R1 last year and can only assume there will be similar traps this year. Looking back at 2018 I do seem to recall most of my trades in the first 4-6weeks were epic fails trying to chase the early performers. I'll be trying to just swap rookies around for the first 2-3weeks.
I would also like to remain ruthless with injuries of any kind to any player in that if they're missing for a week they're out of my side. It worked v.well for me last year particularly with guys like Merrett etc who's '1weeker' turned into 4-5weeks.
- Mar 20, 2007
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History suggests he won't
However history suggested the same about Hurn last year.
Elroy67
Senior List
I think Archie is a no brainer if named.
I'm not sure that is the move I would make to accommodate it tho....
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- Apr 28, 2007
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I can’t believe it’s not Butters.
No but seriously, I’m with Jaded on this. Got him 3rd rookie after Walsh & Scott. Looks a gun.
- Mar 20, 2007
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Might go Gawn down to Goldstein just to have money to be flexible for Thursday. I can't see the gap between these two ballooning out. If anything Goldstein is under-value and Gawn is slightly over-valued.
- Apr 28, 2007
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Hang in there guys, it’s lockout week. Don’t go undo all your hard preseason work now.
Yeah ditto. Too much reshuffling has to be done to get Archie Smith now for me. Dunkley down to Boak just isn't worth it I feel
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-03-18/in-the-mix-which-new-faces-could-debut-for-your-club
In the mix debuts according to the minds at AFL.com.au
(In order of likliehood per each team t)
Adelaide - Chayce Jones, Lachlan Murphy
Brisbane - none
Carlton - Walsh, Setterfield, Gibbons
Collingwood - none
Essendon - none
Fremantle - Brett Bewley and Lachie Schultz
Geelong - Jordan Clark, Tom Atkins, Charlie Constable, Gryan Miers, Darcy Fort
Gold Coast - Sam Collines, Chris Burgess, Jack Lukosious
GWS - Jackson Hately, Jy Caldwell
Hawthorn - Jack Scrimshaw, Dylan Moore, Ollie Hanrahan, Harrison Jones
Melbourne - Marty Hoare
North Melbourne - Bailey Scott
Port adelaide - Willem Drew, Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, Xavier Duursma
Richmond - Noah Balta
St Kilda - Matthew Parker, Nick Hind, Jonathan Marsh
Sydney - Nick Blakely
West Coast - none
Doggies - none
In the mix debuts according to the minds at AFL.com.au
(In order of likliehood per each team t)
Adelaide - Chayce Jones, Lachlan Murphy
Brisbane - none
Carlton - Walsh, Setterfield, Gibbons
Collingwood - none
Essendon - none
Fremantle - Brett Bewley and Lachie Schultz
Geelong - Jordan Clark, Tom Atkins, Charlie Constable, Gryan Miers, Darcy Fort
Gold Coast - Sam Collines, Chris Burgess, Jack Lukosious
GWS - Jackson Hately, Jy Caldwell
Hawthorn - Jack Scrimshaw, Dylan Moore, Ollie Hanrahan, Harrison Jones
Melbourne - Marty Hoare
North Melbourne - Bailey Scott
Port adelaide - Willem Drew, Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, Xavier Duursma
Richmond - Noah Balta
St Kilda - Matthew Parker, Nick Hind, Jonathan Marsh
Sydney - Nick Blakely
West Coast - none
Doggies - none
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