2019 Trade thread
- Thread starter dlanod
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- Oct 13, 2015
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Patriots have done it as well - a great article from Grantland (RIP) about the benefits of acquiring future draft picks and/or trading down for more: https://grantland.com/the-triangle/bill-belichick-nfl-draft-new-england-patriots/
One reality is that with the rule that you can only carry in to the draft as many picks as you have list spots these trades have to happen ahead of the draft. We were going to have to lose picks somehow and this is a great value move.
Doc Hattori
Team Captain
to get an early pick before all the academy and F/S picks
- Oct 13, 2015
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Or have another first round pick to trade for a quality player to complement what will (hopefully) be a finals contending list for the foreseeable future. Gives us a lot of flexibility and was very low risk with a high upside. Love the move.
Im expecting Port to be between 9-12th. Great trade by the club.
Hollow Knight
Imperfect vessel
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**** I love death rides!
Great deal for the Lions. Really can’t see how we lose this one. Also great to have another death ride. I still haven’t forgiven them for knocking us off in 04.
I’m just waiting for the day when we trade in a future pick from Norf. That would be the most enjoyable death ride of all!
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I’m just waiting for the day when we trade in a future pick from Norf. That would be the most enjoyable death ride of all!
Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
iBeng
Intentionally left blank
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Giddyup!
This plays so true to our manoeuvring pre-draft, the football department seems happy overall with the state of the list given our few available spots. It gets rid of the small change we might have wasted on draft night and pushes our hand further into the future, once better decisions can be made on some of the current youth. This is the opposite of throwing your hand in and looks to give us more options into the future. And it's all been done before draft night's shenanigans, shows wise heads at work if you ask me.
Yep - well said!
- Jul 18, 2017
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2020 trade period - Brisbane Lions have secured (think of lachie Neale quality type midfielder) with two first round picks ......
Viceregal
Norm Smith Medallist
Twilight Zone stuff - we did a trade with another club that included 'losing' our first round this year - and *no-one* has said a single solitary negative syllable.
Love it!
Love it!
With who? Can't see us moving back into the first round without using a 2020 first round pick. Clubs are not going to give up an early pick for 21 and 29 or 21 and 34. Late first round pretty similar to 21 anyway.
The more I think about it the less sense it makes from a Port perspective. Pick 72 for 71 is just 10 draft points so who cares.
Pick 29 for 52 and 55 results in a net equivalent of a pick of 56 to us. Makes sense that Port would want to get rid of pick 29 given they have an academy prospect Mead at 29 but why would they want to give up a free (early) 4th rounder to us to accomplish this? Usually teams have to pay to move up not down the draft.
The risk factor is pick 16 for Port 1st rounder. Assuming they win the premiership pick 16 for pick 19 (GC have an intermediate first rounder) then we give up a pick equivalent to 63 (a mid to late 4th rounder). Pick 16 is likely to get pushed back by 2 spots (Green and the Hawks boy). Lets assume our pick 19 gets pushed back by 6 spots next year with a very compromised 1st round (this is a very unlikely scenario) - we give up equivalent to pick 54.
So the worst case scenario with all these pick movements is that the draft points cancel out and we just downgraded pick 18 to pick 25 (equivalent to pick 54 - late third) one drafts time in order to get a pick 29 in this years draft (out of draft capital that would otherwise be automatically wasted). We draft 3 players we rate equivalently in that 2nd tier of players from 12 to 30 and then we draft Coleman or whomever academy boy gets bid on and hope the other one goes to the rookie draft. This assumes that pick 16 (downgraded to 18 after FS/academy) doesnt become the greatest gun steal since Cripps/Fyfe and we dont end up with bloody Spanderman in the 2020 draft.
The best case scenario is Port gets Hinkleyed in thier Koch-hole and there is massive drama resulting in a bottom 4 finish. We end up with the equivalent of pick 17 value gained. There is also a chance of a multiplier here since with the compromised draft, a team like the Bulldogs might be interested in getting up to pick 4 so they can get a pick in before they have to match their top 5 academy prospect - so we can hope to do a deal like the Giants trade which netted us McClugs and Berry in the same draft.
Port board are arguing that if they finish 10th again (a likely scenario) then they are only giving up the equivalent of pick 42 (mid third) to get a player in 2019 instead of 2020 whilst avoiding having their original first rounder in 2020 chewed up to match Schofield. This logic has merit; however, they will need to rustle up equivalent points out of their other picks to match a supposed top 10 bid on Schofield. We havent given any 2020 picks back to help them with this. So they are taking on the risk that they wont have enough points and hence will miss out on Schofield unless they trade out a Wines type player. Also they now have picks 12, 16, 18, 52, 55, 66, 67, 68, 72 and 88 into 4 list spots. So now they take on the onus of trading these later picks into some value before they get shredded at draft night (which would then push our pick 71 by 4 spots automatically netting us another 29 draft points for matching Coleman).
Seems like Port is taking all the risks. They must have someone in the top 10 in mind and will look to move their three first rounders to achieve this. Could work well for them if this player ends up like Rozee in quality. Could end up terribly if they end up with an Aish/Toumpas/Mayes quality top 10 pick.
Absolutely fantastic trade from the Lions perspective. Worse case scenario is we lose marginally equivalent to a late third/early fourth in draft value. Obviously we could end up significantly worse if pick 16 ends up being a love-child combo of Fyfe/Bontempelli/Cripps and wins the rising star, brownlow, coleman and norm smith in their first year. We will just have to hope that pick 19 next year does the same thing.
Pick 29 for 52 and 55 results in a net equivalent of a pick of 56 to us. Makes sense that Port would want to get rid of pick 29 given they have an academy prospect Mead at 29 but why would they want to give up a free (early) 4th rounder to us to accomplish this? Usually teams have to pay to move up not down the draft.
The risk factor is pick 16 for Port 1st rounder. Assuming they win the premiership pick 16 for pick 19 (GC have an intermediate first rounder) then we give up a pick equivalent to 63 (a mid to late 4th rounder). Pick 16 is likely to get pushed back by 2 spots (Green and the Hawks boy). Lets assume our pick 19 gets pushed back by 6 spots next year with a very compromised 1st round (this is a very unlikely scenario) - we give up equivalent to pick 54.
So the worst case scenario with all these pick movements is that the draft points cancel out and we just downgraded pick 18 to pick 25 (equivalent to pick 54 - late third) one drafts time in order to get a pick 29 in this years draft (out of draft capital that would otherwise be automatically wasted). We draft 3 players we rate equivalently in that 2nd tier of players from 12 to 30 and then we draft Coleman or whomever academy boy gets bid on and hope the other one goes to the rookie draft. This assumes that pick 16 (downgraded to 18 after FS/academy) doesnt become the greatest gun steal since Cripps/Fyfe and we dont end up with bloody Spanderman in the 2020 draft.
The best case scenario is Port gets Hinkleyed in thier Koch-hole and there is massive drama resulting in a bottom 4 finish. We end up with the equivalent of pick 17 value gained. There is also a chance of a multiplier here since with the compromised draft, a team like the Bulldogs might be interested in getting up to pick 4 so they can get a pick in before they have to match their top 5 academy prospect - so we can hope to do a deal like the Giants trade which netted us McClugs and Berry in the same draft.
Port board are arguing that if they finish 10th again (a likely scenario) then they are only giving up the equivalent of pick 42 (mid third) to get a player in 2019 instead of 2020 whilst avoiding having their original first rounder in 2020 chewed up to match Schofield. This logic has merit; however, they will need to rustle up equivalent points out of their other picks to match a supposed top 10 bid on Schofield. We havent given any 2020 picks back to help them with this. So they are taking on the risk that they wont have enough points and hence will miss out on Schofield unless they trade out a Wines type player. Also they now have picks 12, 16, 18, 52, 55, 66, 67, 68, 72 and 88 into 4 list spots. So now they take on the onus of trading these later picks into some value before they get shredded at draft night (which would then push our pick 71 by 4 spots automatically netting us another 29 draft points for matching Coleman).
Seems like Port is taking all the risks. They must have someone in the top 10 in mind and will look to move their three first rounders to achieve this. Could work well for them if this player ends up like Rozee in quality. Could end up terribly if they end up with an Aish/Toumpas/Mayes quality top 10 pick.
Absolutely fantastic trade from the Lions perspective. Worse case scenario is we lose marginally equivalent to a late third/early fourth in draft value. Obviously we could end up significantly worse if pick 16 ends up being a love-child combo of Fyfe/Bontempelli/Cripps and wins the rising star, brownlow, coleman and norm smith in their first year. We will just have to hope that pick 19 next year does the same thing.
dlanod
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I agree in general but want to dig in to one specific angle...
Draft value and figuring out what we got the equivalent in points doesn't really work if you're factoring in what potential bids might shift the pick around. In that scenario either way we'd get at least the 19th best player we have available to us. Whether that's pick 19 or pick 25 (due to bidding) doesn't matter - bidding doesn't affect the value of that pick with regards to "points".
Port are definitely going the youth path and trying to get as much quality within their list ASAP. 4 picks within that 10-30 range actually isn’t too bad, not great but definitely not bad. Few injuries to their older players and bang, top 5 pick for us! 
A couple of notes.
Swapping picks 72 and 71 was basically window dressing. Neither team will use them. And they’re almost useless as trade assets.
There’s genuine talk there could be less than 70 picks taken in this years draft.
Port have 34 listed players after signing delisted free agents and upgrading rookies. Their intention is to take 6 picks to the draft, but only draft 4 kids, and then move the last two picks to the rookie list.
So 52, 55 and 66. This should give Port enough points to match a bid for Mead in the mid 20’s. Definitely by Adelaide’s pick 29.
St Kilda and Melbourne both have short draft hands this year, and an extra 4th round pick in 2020, so it’s possible Port could trade their excess 2019 4th round picks to St Kilda for future picks.
Port will need those points next year for their to academy and FS kids.
On exposed form so far, few draft watchers are talking about Schofield as a possible top 20 pick, let alone top 10.
Not that I want to defend Port, but it's not necessarily a horrible trade for them, assuming a few things:
- Lose the 29, get picks in the 50s - no loss. That would've been used as points anyway
- We don't have significant evidence in AFL yet, but in other sports, you pay a surplus to bring your picks forward into the current year.
- Port's recruiters will have their views. If they really don't like the talent in next year's draft, fair enough. If they really do like the depth into the teens in this draft, fair enough.
- They're clearly bundling together a lot of youth quickly. This helps that.
Of course. I still think we come out trumps on that one.
Get good value in the trade - good.
Get a deathride - very good.
Get a deathride of a team you don't like - very very good.
Get a deathride of a team you don't like who isn't likely to make finals - excellent.
- Lose the 29, get picks in the 50s - no loss. That would've been used as points anyway
- We don't have significant evidence in AFL yet, but in other sports, you pay a surplus to bring your picks forward into the current year.
- Port's recruiters will have their views. If they really don't like the talent in next year's draft, fair enough. If they really do like the depth into the teens in this draft, fair enough.
- They're clearly bundling together a lot of youth quickly. This helps that.
Of course. I still think we come out trumps on that one.
Get good value in the trade - good.
Get a deathride - very good.
Get a deathride of a team you don't like - very very good.
Get a deathride of a team you don't like who isn't likely to make finals - excellent.
