AFL 2020 - AFL Round 11 (no aftertiming allowed)

[Prochard123]

Had Daniel above 64.5 DT

Was on 61 with 20 minutes left in the 4th, ends on 64 DT.

How is this even possible? 5 out of my last 7 bets I was 0.5 off??????

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Overall an okay day with Ah Chee and Wallis the standouts.

But I had the Lions 25+

That last five minutes stings.

Also Neale only kicking one despite several opportunities.

 

[benji21]

Decent day, Dale a goal, ah chee a goal plus the overs getting up nice and early.

Tomorrow gonna be watching the weather closely. Blues with +20.5 seems excessive if its going to be monsoon like weather. Eagles will be to tall you would think and cripps would thrive.

 

[Prochard123]

1. Macrae above 27.5 psosesisons - 27 (last week)
2. Jake Lloyd above 25.5 possessions - 25
3. Treloar above 27.5 possessions - 25 (at half time...)
4. Caleb Daniel above 64.5 DT - 64
5. Rory Laird above 20.5 possessions - 20

Seriously what? Half of them were one of these players getting caught holding the ball in the dying minutes too... In the case of Macrae Champion Data calculated incorrectly and missed a disposal in the last quarter.

 

[mac23]

Viney out tomorrow so Brayshaw finally gets to play in the guts again.

Brayshaw 20+ @ 3.50 TAB
Brayshaw 25+ @ 13.00

Already into $2.50 and $7.50

 

[hamohawk1]

Surely WC into Melbourne tomorrow is a moral.

Anything more is a bonus, but at $2.21 (sportsbet) surely worth a bit for play money throughout the week.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Already into $2.50 and $7.50

20+ $3.75 Lads

 

[5 Bucks]

Surely WC into Melbourne tomorrow is a moral.

Anything more is a bonus, but at $2.21 (sportsbet) surely worth a bit for play money throughout the week.

No Gawn, No Viney. At 3QT Vs Adelaide they were only 2 goals up. They have superior fitness and don't lose last quarters but no certainty by any means.

And if it's bucketing down in Perth that'll be a great equaliser. WC couldn't handle the dew in QLD. Curnow, Cripps, Setterfield and Kennedy should put up a contest and from there it's a territory battle.

 

[HTPunter]

Having a look at the behinds markets for a wet game Eagles v Blues

Eagles quarter line is 3.5, over is around $2.30 each quarter

Blues quarter line is 2.5, overs $2.40ish

Only need 2 of each to get up, which I think is very possible in the forecasted weather.
I can't work it out? If it's anything like Freo/Geelong game, should be easy. Not going to be the Eagles day out v Collingwood kicking 18.3, which was closer to being a historical anomaly. I'm not normally much of a bet on the weather type but even a shower or 2 would make it difficult to score.

Also 4 behinds exactly for Eagles in a quarter is $9.50, 5 you're looking around $23.
Blues $19 and $60ish.

1 of those gets up and you end up in the green.

 

[HTPunter]

Makes me confident though with the total points line being around 100, despite being 2 teams that can score, the forecasted weather should arrive. I don't think it's silly to see the Eagles scoring 11-12 behinds and the Blues 8-9.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

North has named three outs: Brown (key forward), Hosie (medium / tall forward), Will Walker (small / medium forward)

North has named three ins: Larkey (key forward), LDU (mid), Durdin (key back)

See a problem here?

Three forwards out, only one forward in.

Brown -> Larkey, fair enough, but why the other two?

This says to me that Higgins will be playing forward this week. He was often spotted near goal last week even when we had a proper forwardline.

Higgins kicked two goals last week. He also kicked two goals last time he played Melbourne.

He is paying $9 to kick two goals tomorrow. This is is massive overs imho.

Also $2.30 AGS on SB, I'll see what the others offer tomorrow.

Also keep in mind that there is no Gawn tomorrow. Goldstein should dominate in the ruck all over the ground.

Every stoppage inside North's forward 50 will be dangerous. Exactly where players like Higgins do their best work.

Note also: North has Melbourne's first pick this year. The lower Melbourne finish, the better for us.

This is our last match worth winning in 2020. And Melbourne have gone and dropped Viney and Gawn? Bizarre stuff.

Also, North's biggest weakness is pacey small forwards. I see Melksham having a day out. Kicked two against us last time.

Higgins 2+ into Melksham 2+ @ 23.75, Higgins AGS onto Melksham 2+ @ @ 5.75 are my bets of the week.

 

[Spacedog]

SPS AGS @ $6 - will play forward or mid, loves the slop as well

 

[Bucking Bronco]

How do you ask Sportsbet to put a bet up burge13?

Do you tweet, or what?

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Dang.

Burger got banned...

Anyone else have any experience with getting Sportsbet to put bets up (make players available in certain markets that they aren't currently up in)?

 

[Robo87]

Eagles quarter line is 3.5, over is around $2.30 each quarter
Blues quarter line is 2.5, overs $2.40ish

think these odds and lines have changed for these quarters. -->
now Eagles behinds quarter line is 2.5, over is around $1.61 each quarter
Blues behinds quarter line is 1.5, overs is $2.40ish still. But

blues gone over 2.5 behinds in first HALF 7/9 times,
blues gone over 2.5 behinds in 2nd half 6/9,
wc gone over 3.5 behinds in the first half 6/9,
wc over 3.5 behinds in 2nd half 5/9

im also expecting blues to kick over 6 behinds in the game [achieved in 8/9 games]
so i think best value is:
-- 1u blues over 2.5 behinds for 1st half @1.84 sb
-- 1u blues over 2.5 behinds for 2nd half @1.86 sb
(or mayb wc half behinds too if they will dominate..)

 

[md20]

In early with a few small ones.

Carlton +20.5 $2

SGM $4.93 boosted
Waterman AGS
Gibbons AGS

SGM $17.96 boosted
Carlton +20.5
Over 102.5
J. Cripps AGS
Martin AGS

A. Brayshaw 20+ $3.75

SGM $4.73 boosted
Petracca AGS
Zurhaar AGS
Brayshaw 15+

 

[Hellboy101]

Already into $2.50 and $7.50

Most disposals group B @6.50

SGM: Yeo, Shuey, Curnow 20+, M.Kennedy 15+@ 5.75

 

[JuniorWatch]

Dang.

Burger got banned...

Anyone else have any experience with getting Sportsbet to put bets up (make players available in certain markets that they aren't currently up in)?

Just make a request on live chat and they'll send it through to the traders.
Most of the time it gets put up but you have to do it at least 12 hours before the game.

 

[Johanpetro]

Who would we trust more to kick 2 goals, Betts or J Martin? And don’t say neither

 

[FrankGrimes]

Wet day in Perth, unders looks likely, im
Not looking at ags too risky, more 15+, Simpson goes well in wet from memory? Cripps, not sure who else?

 

[dontlimitme]

ok so wet windy wild day at optus today, really like this bet on ladbrokes

100$ SGM Race to 20 Neither 2nd Q/Race to 20 Neither 3rd Q/ Race to 20 Neither 4th Q @ 4.68 Boosted (LADS)

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Who would we trust more to kick 2 goals, Betts or J Martin? And don’t say neither

Not one or the other

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[HTPunter]

Wet day in Perth, unders looks likely, im
Not looking at ags too risky, more 15+, Simpson goes well in wet from memory? Cripps, not sure who else?

Tim Kelly. Stoppage specialist, NicNat advantage over Pittonet, will be one of the cleanest on the ground

 

[dontlimitme]

Also same strategy bet as the behinds in the GWS game

50$ WCE 5-6 Behinds First Half @ 3.75 (SB)
30$ WCE 7-8 Behinds First Half @ 11 (SB)
10$ WCE 9-10 Behinds First Half @ 71 (SB)
5$ WCE 11-12 Behinds First Half @ 501 (SB)
5$ WCE 13+ Behinds First Half @ 501 (SB)

 

[Hellboy101]

ok so wet windy wild day at optus today, really like this bet on ladbrokes

100$ SGM Race to 20 Neither 2nd Q/Race to 20 Neither 3rd Q/ Race to 20 Neither 4th Q @ 4.68 Boosted (LADS)

Tailed. Excellent bet in the conditions