AFL 2020 - AFL Round 8

[NYRB]

are any bookmakers offering the odds of Hawkins getting 0 goals tomorrow?

At $1.16 to score 1+ goal or more for Hawkins, I wouldn't even touch that in those conditions tomorrow. Anyway if i was a betting man, yay be worth looking into another small forward to be top goalscorer tomorrow night.

Sportsbet have Hawkins to kick 2+ goals at $1.91 (which thinking about it now is fairly decent even with the rain)

Id probably have the line for Hawkins goals at around under/over 2.5 goals in day conditions.

 

[GROTTO]

are any bookmakers offering the odds of Hawkins getting 0 goals tomorrow?

At $1.16 to score 1+ goal or more for Hawkins, I wouldn't even touch that in those conditions tomorrow. Anyway if i was a betting man, yay be worth looking into another small forward to be top goalscorer tomorrow night.

Sportsbet have Hawkins to kick 2+ goals at $1.91 (which thinking about it now is fairly decent even with the rain)

Id probably have the line for Hawkins goals at around under/over 2.5 goals in day conditions.

I thought part of the anti corruption into gaming, you cannot have these kinds of markets? But yes, I would love to take on the opposite odds of 1.16 for Hawkins tomorrow.

 

[BloodRet]

Congrats to BloodRet on the big wins.

You called the Kennedy bet before the game.

How many of these multis are you posting after the fact though?

Yeah sorry mate I put em on while I was in the middle of a big night and slept half of today so didn't get to post it.

Posting all bets from here on in

 

[NYRB]

I thought part of the anti corruption into gaming, you cannot have these kinds of markets? But yes, I would love to take on the opposite odds of 1.16 for Hawkins tomorrow.

With Betfair they have markets in soccer whereby you can oppose a player kicking a goal.

eg Raheem Sterling in the soccer tonight you can back it at $1.67 or oppose it- which is technically backing the reciprocal odds of around $2.50 if you reckon he can't score.

Don't understand why you couldn't have these kind of markets up?

 

[GROTTO]

With Betfair they have markets in soccer whereby you can oppose a player kicking a goal.

eg Raheem Sterling in the soccer tonight you can back it at $1.67 or oppose it- which is technically backing the reciprocal odds of around $2.50 if you reckon he can't score.

Don't understand why you couldn't have these kind of markets up?

I think its for sports in Australia. I know there is still certain markets that float around like this.

 

[Prochard123]

I think Danger on paper should do really well tomorrow, however I'm also a bit cautious on his past performances vs Freo.

Seem to do 30 - 40% under average performance despite having no tag, playing a midfield role and against a relatively weak Freo team both years?

 

[freo_leo29]

Luxbet used to be the only bookie that offered overs/unders for goalscorer bets

So they are definitely allowed but they unfortunately died with Luxbet

used to be good for arbs and middles

 

[Robo87]

2u SGM- danger 20+, brayshaw 15+, rohan ags @3.20 sb
1u Close ags @2.75 lads
0.5u Close 2g+ @9 sb
0.3u Close 3g+ @41 sb
0.1u Close 4g+ @101 sb

 

[NYRB]

Im lucky I am based in New Zealand, we still get a few more extra options in comparison to the Australian punters from what I heard have only got the choices of using Australian bookmakers.

Pinnacle for instance isn't accessible in Aus, from my time there- almost every punter that bet use to have an account with them. Can understand the Australian government perspective though, they don't want the Aussie dollars flowing into overseas bookies. (which is maybe to the detriment to the locals as they have less choice). They want the money to stay in Australia.

 

[Geeves Train]

Evening/Morning All

Looks like Neds/Lads have removed Goal Scorer and Disposals from Same Game Multis options, everyone found similar?

 

[TryAnHit]

Im lucky I am based in New Zealand, we still get a few more extra options in comparison to the Australian punters from what I heard have only got the choices of using Australian bookmakers.

Pinnacle for instance isn't accessible in Aus, from my time there- almost every punter that bet use to have an account with them. Can understand the Australian government perspective though, they don't want the Aussie dollars flowing into overseas bookies. (which is maybe to the detriment to the locals as they have less choice). They want the money to stay in Australia.

There is plenty of ways to get asian pinnacle if you know people. https://www.ps3838.com/m/en/ is the site.

 

[BloodRet]

Lobb 2+
Hawkins 2+
Rohan ags
Walters ags

@34

 

[BloodRet]

Also seperate bites at Lobb 3 and 4+
Walters 4+ may suit him in wet conditions

 

[NYRB]

Nathan Brown SGM for Freo v Geelong:

Anytime Goalscorer: Taberner
Anytime Goalscorer: Michael Walters
Anytime Goalscorer: Tom Hawkins

Odds: $2.30

Nathan Brown "these odds are pretty short but this will happen"

There Sportsbet and Browny I've tailed you.Any idea how much Sportsbet are paying Matthew Richardson and Nathan Brown to be their ambassadors?


To cut Brown some slack, he has to do these previews 1-2 days ahead of the game. Alot can change within 24 hours , with team selections, weather etc In their previews, they didn't mention anything about the weather, also Jack Steven is not in the team , when in their previews they assumed he was playing................

 

[NYRB]

ill oppose Brown again with my SGM

To Kick 2+ Goals: Hawkins 2+ Goals
Dangerfield Most Disposals (Walters, Brayshaw, Tucker, Aish, Dangerfield, Duncan, Menegola, Guthrie). Im not sold on Walters having the tank to outwit and outlast Dangerfield. Mitch Duncan is coming back into the team this week. As discussed in another post, I think the Big Hawkins will have enough opportunities at goal to be able to snag at least 2 goals. He averages 2.1 goals a game against Freo.

Thats paying $8.50 (Powerplay boosted to $9.80)



My other SGM:
Fremantle +11.5 line
Under 112.5 pts
Dangerfield 25+

Geelong look like they are trying to minimize risk of injuries and have not played: Selwood, Ablett, Jack Stevens and Daulhaus. Dangerfield will know that he has to pull his weight tonight with the absence of key players and i could easily see him get 35+ disposals tonight in wet weather.

That too is paying $8.50 (Powerplay to boosted $9.80)

 

[mac23]

Interested to hear everyone’s thoughts on tonight.
Cats 0-3 at Optus and were completely blindsided by last time out.
Outs on both sides make it a bit of a wildcard game but statistically speaking the wet weather seems to favour Freo.
1-39 $3 most books.

 

[Lewis#3]

Evening/Morning All

Looks like Neds/Lads have removed Goal Scorer and Disposals from Same Game Multis options, everyone found similar?

Yeah have seen this on ladbrokes today. Unsure if it’s just an error though

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Evening/Morning All

Looks like Neds/Lads have removed Goal Scorer and Disposals from Same Game Multis options, everyone found similar?

Same thing with Neds/BetStar/BookMaker(Ladbrokes affiliates). As mentioned above, hopefully just an error that will get rectified. Can’t see them being very popular with no goalscorer/disposal markets for multis

Edit: Just spoke with them and “They are experiencing difficulties and their tech team is looking in to it at the moment”.

 

[NYRB]

Evening/Morning All

Looks like Neds/Lads have removed Goal Scorer and Disposals from Same Game Multis options, everyone found similar?

Their up now, as far as i can see.

 

[Ohh Ok]

3.5u Dangerfield over 22.5 disposals @ $1.87 (lads)

Hasn't previously played the best vs Freo, but should be full time mid tonight with the outs in the side. Expecting to see a bit of the "danger" show tonight.

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Their up now, as far as i can see.

In the main market the Disposal/Goal scorer markets are there. In the same game multi section they are not(On my accounts anyway). I noticed last night they didn’t even have the same game multi section at all so obviously having issues

 

[Fabab]

ill oppose Brown again with my SGM

To Kick 2+ Goals: Hawkins 2+ Goals
Dangerfield Most Disposals (Walters, Brayshaw, Tucker, Aish, Dangerfield, Duncan, Menegola, Guthrie). Im not sold on Walters having the tank to outwit and outlast Dangerfield. Mitch Duncan is coming back into the team this week. As discussed in another post, I think the Big Hawkins will have enough opportunities at goal to be able to snag at least 2 goals. He averages 2.1 goals a game against Freo.

Thats paying $8.50 (Powerplay boosted to $9.80)



My other SGM:
Fremantle +11.5 line
Under 112.5 pts
Dangerfield 25+

Geelong look like they are trying to minimize risk of injuries and have not played: Selwood, Ablett, Jack Stevens and Daulhaus. Dangerfield will know that he has to pull his weight tonight with the absence of key players and i could easily see him get 35+ disposals tonight in wet weather.

That too is paying $8.50 (Powerplay to boosted $9.80)

In one post you said you tailed him,30min later you are going against him!

 

[NYRB]

Average disposal for the big 8 tonight in 2020:

Dangerfield 23 (7 matches)
Mengola 19.6 (7 matches)
Guthrie 18.7 (7 matches)
Duncan 18.7 (6 matches)
Walters 20.7 (7 matches)
Aish 17.3 (7 matches)
Tucker 16 (7 matches)
Brayshaw 17 (7 matches)

Bit of food for thought, last time these 2 teams played at Optus stadium, Walters led the disposal count with 29 and Dangerfield had only 16.

Dangerfield is a bit hot and cold when he plays the Dockers. His disposal count versus Freo in the last 6 matches: 16, 24 ,31, 24, 31, 38. Geelong teams last year that played Freo had: Tim Kelly, Ablett, Scott Selwood, Joel Selwood, so my thinking was in a way Dangerfield could afford to be given a bit of rest time in the forward line or play an average game & fall back upon other players to pick up the slack- I don't see that happening tonight, tonight he will be the main midfielder & in the centre square for the majority of the bouncedowns. I only watched a bit of Mitch Duncan play but whats the odds a player who returns back into a side tops the disposal the following week? I would love to see that stat. Fremantle isn't known as a tagging team either. They haven't had a solid tagger since Dean Solomon, so i reckon Danger could run rampant tonight.

 

[squeaky1000]

In one post you said you tailed him,30min later you are going against him!

He also said he wanted to find a market for Hawkins not to kick a goal in the wet but then in the same post said he liked him for 2+ haha, absolute raffle

 

[NYRB]

He also said he wanted to find a market for Hawkins not to kick a goal in the wet but then in the same post said he liked him for 2+ haha, absolute raffle

Im finding it, if i place a bet on nathan browns SGM , and then place an opposing bet- it works. Like I said before, im a superstitious person, always have been, always will be. (In case I mugged someone's bets on here on Hawkins, Taberner or Michael Walters for goals- I apologize)

Would love it if a betting agency had a market for 'Exact Number of Goals' kicked by a player.