Same as me, silly by me picking gawm in the wet
AFL 2020 - AFL Round 8
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
- 68,544
- 94,213
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Again that would be open to match fixing.
LionsOrDieTrion
All Australian
- Jun 23, 2020
- 802
- 1,128
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
I made the assumption he would dominate our rucks
Lobb 2+
Rohan 2+
Danger 20+ touches
Bradshaw 15+ touches
Paying $47.50
Rohan 2+
Danger 20+ touches
Bradshaw 15+ touches
Paying $47.50
- Oct 6, 2011
- 38,201
- 11,857
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
your right, I only just noticed this.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 38,201
- 11,857
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
I just think it would be interesting to have an Exact Goal market for the big players such as Tom Hawkins. (assuming no bookies margin) Id price it like this for him tonight:
Tom Hawkins Goals:
0 Goals: $11
1 Goal: $5
2 Goals: $3.70
3 Goals: $3.85
4 Goals: $7
5 Goals: $28
6+ Goals: $101
id be interested in a having a tenner at 0 goals, but my expectation is he would kick 2+, probably more leading towards 3 goals . ( i know that sounds like an unusual way to bet)
$11 in the wet? I would very much like to place a bet with you...
- Oct 6, 2011
- 38,201
- 11,857
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Id be happy to take odds of around $6 for Hawkins to kick 0 goals. We should have the ability to negotiate with the bookies.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
- 68,544
- 94,213
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Its exactly the reason why this market does not exist.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 38,201
- 11,857
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Another little quirky stat, I found was Dangerfield has polled Brownlow votes in 6 of the last 9 matches against Freo. (not including Finals). 3 of those 9 matches he was voted best on ground.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 38,201
- 11,857
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Taken this for a bit of a giggle, SGM Dangerfield 30+ and Dangerfield to kick 2+ goals paying @ $36.50
Feel the game will be tight either way, taken a bit of a nibble at the draw at odds of $67.
GL all.
Feel the game will be tight either way, taken a bit of a nibble at the draw at odds of $67.
GL all.
Prochard123
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jul 28, 2014
- 7,147
- 5,773
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
7 out of the last 9 games u mentioned are from 2017 or earlier, different line ups, different coach, different team strengths.
Not all historical data is relevant. FYI he polled 0 votes in the most recent 2 games aginst Justin Longmuir as the coach.
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FYI people talking about Hawkins not kicking a goal in the wet, he’s notoriously a great wet weather player believe it or not. I remember one day him kick 6 odd goals in torrential rain against the Lions.
Spot on, re: markets for players not to kick goals. I tried a Build-A-Bet with Beteasy of 3 talls across 2 opposing teams “not to kick a goal” on a wet day and was advised they can’t offer the market due to ability to “fix” these outcomes
Prochard123
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jul 28, 2014
- 7,147
- 5,773
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Mark O'Connor under 51.5 Fantasy (Beteasy) - $1.88
Was expecting this to be a higher line but from experience the Beteasy fantasy lines are pretty sophisticated, probably has just as many dimensions as the model I use.
Was expecting this to be a higher line but from experience the Beteasy fantasy lines are pretty sophisticated, probably has just as many dimensions as the model I use.
- Jan 21, 2013
- 11,564
- 24,238
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
Brayshaw 15+
Constable 15+
Walters 20+
Danger 20+
Rohan AGS
Matera 2+
@36
Constable 15+
Walters 20+
Danger 20+
Rohan AGS
Matera 2+
@36
Prochard123
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jul 28, 2014
- 7,147
- 5,773
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Like most of them. Although I'm a bit wary of betting on too many disposals overs in the same game. Some will get more disposals, some will get less. So if Brayshaw gets 15 +, could mean less midfield time for Walters, less uncontested possessions for Walters etc...
To sum it up, like this bet, but just something to think about
- Mar 28, 2012
- 2,222
- 3,610
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- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- Pittsburgh Steelers Perth Scorchers
Really rate this for a nibble
andwhenitcomes
Team Captain
- May 2, 2018
- 445
- 556
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
BetEasy lines feel like they're a lot sharper than previous years, hard to get a read on.
andwhenitcomes
Team Captain
- May 2, 2018
- 445
- 556
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
James Aish under 16.5 disposals @ 1.97 (Topsport). 4/7 this season (plus last three), but has shifted down back the last fortnight and defenders have struggled against the Cats this year. Showers help too.
Prochard123
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jul 28, 2014
- 7,147
- 5,773
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Yeah in general their lines are quite precise. Although that could be dependent on what kind of punter you are and which side you take. I prefer overs, but Im sure there are those that prefer unders who find Beteasy lines incredibly profitable.
But in general I think people are optimistic, meaning they will go overs more often than they should. So Beteasy's strategy of having higher lines works in their favour when you consider punter behaviour.
Prochard123
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jul 28, 2014
- 7,147
- 5,773
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Not sure if you realised but he's covered that line comfortably all of the last 3 weeks?... Did you mean overs?
